Statistics Wales demography newsletter: September 2025

Following the recommendation from the UK Statistics Authority, the UK government has commissioned the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to conduct a census of Wales and England in 2031 (GOV.UK). This will combine the strengths of population-wide data collection with the additional value that administrative data can provide.

The ONS is looking to deliver a questionnaire-based whole population census while also using administrative data to improve the quality, frequency and range of statistics that it can provide outside a census.

A Census Taskforce has been set up which has started scoping plans for 2031. The taskforce will focus on delivering a census that builds on the successes of 2021. It will work with devolved governments to support coherent UK outputs and maximise the benefits from the work with administrative data to date, to support a more efficient and high-quality census.

The ONS will launch a public consultation later this autumn. This consultation will gather views on topics that users need from a system of population statistics and inform the development of the census questionnaire.

On 30 July, the ONS published mid-2024 population estimates for Wales and England. The Welsh Government has published a bulletin summarising the mid-2024 population estimates for Wales. StatsWales tables will be updated in due course.

Estimates for mid-2022 and mid-2023 have been revised by the ONS to incorporate improved international and internal migration data. For international migration, the latest long-term international migration estimates (ONS), which were published in May 2025, have been used. For internal migration, NHS Personal Demographics Service and Higher Education Statistics Agency data, which were previously unavailable, have been used. Further information about the impact of the revisions can be found in the ONS bulletin.

The population estimates for Wales for this period have been revised upwards to:

• 3,134,000 in mid-2022, an increase of 1,500 (0.05%) from the previously published estimate
• 3,167,000 in mid-2023, an increase of 2,900 (0.09%) from the previously published estimate

The mid-year estimates refer to the population on 30 June of the reference year and are published annually.

Main points

On 30 June 2024, it was estimated that around 3,187,000 people were living in Wales, an increase of 0.6% since mid-2023, or around 19,300 more people.

The population increase in Wales between mid-2023 and mid-2024 has been driven by positive net international migration.

People aged 65 years or older were estimated to account for just over a fifth of the total population in Wales in mid-2024 (21.7%, or 693,000 people).

The local authority in Wales with the largest percentage population increase between mid-2023 and mid-2024 was Newport, which increased by 1.7%.

The population in England increased by 1.2% between mid-2023 and mid-2024, which is higher than the increase seen in Wales during the same period.

As well as the mid-2024 population estimates, the ONS has also published quality and methodology information (ONS), and an update to the methodology guide (ONS) to accompany the latest official estimates. 

If you have any questions, please contact us on stats.popcensus@gov.wales.

Mid-year admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) are being produced by the ONS for local authorities in Wales and England. These are official statistics in development (Office for Statistics Regulation) while the ONS refines its methods and the data sources used. They do not replace the official mid-year population estimates and should not be used for decision-making. These outputs must not be reproduced without this warning.

The ONS has released ABPEs alongside the accredited official mid-year population estimates. ABPEs use innovative new methods and a wider range of data sources. Differences between the methods and the data sources used mean that the ONS does not expect both sets of estimates to match exactly. More information is available in Understanding mid-year admin-based population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales article (ONS). The ONS also published Admin-based population estimates: local authority case studies, England and Wales, mid-2023 (ONS) in November 2024, which included Cardiff as one of the case studies.

For mid-2024, the admin-based population estimate for Wales was around 3,177,600. This is 0.3% lower than the official mid-year population estimates.

In May 2025, the ONS published an assessment of readiness for admin-based population estimates to become the official estimates of population for England and Wales (ONS). The ONS is working to successfully meet the acceptance criteria (ONS) and are aiming for the ABPEs to become the official estimates of the population in 2026.

Further information on the ABPEs relating to quality assurance, their appropriate usage, and strengths and limitations, is available in the Mid-year admin-based population estimates in England and Wales Quality and Methodology Information (ONS) report.

The ONS aims to release a full set of UK population estimates for mid-2024 later in the year. This will include estimates for Northern Ireland produced by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency and estimates for Scotland produced by National Records of Scotland.

On 27 June, the ONS released a publication that provides UK and Great Britain 2021 totals for a range of topics from the census (ONS). This has been a collaboration alongside National Records of Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. 

Because Scotland’s census was held in 2022 (as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic), the ONS estimated 2021 values for Scotland and added them to the Census 2021 data from Wales, England and Northern Ireland.

The publication includes topic-based tables and a quality and methodology guide. The UK and Great Britain totals, and 2021 estimates for Scotland, are not accredited official statistics. 

Please be advised, the Scotland totals do not replace NRS’ Census 2022 results as the definitive census statistics for Scotland.

On 24 June, the ONS published 2022-based subnational population projections for England (ONS). These population projections are by English local authorities and health geographies.

For information on Welsh language statistics, please see the Statistics Wales quarterly update.

Telephone: 0300 025 0373

Email: stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099