Welsh Statistical Liaison Committee, 5 June 2025: minutes

James Beasley (JB), Public Health Wales

Sioned Cardew-Richardson (SC), MEDR

Lee Clarke (LC), Cardiff County Council

Rachel Clegg (RC), Carmarthenshire County Council

Rachael Clifford (RCl), MEDR

Adam Crocker (AC), Pembrokeshire County Council

Danielle Couturiaux (DC), Welsh Government

Peter Davies (PD), Senedd

Bekki Demski-Millar (BDM), Welsh Government

Janine Edwards (JE), North Wales Regional Partnership Board

Lloyd Fisher (LF), Vale of Glamorgan Council

Tyla Fuller (TF), Estyn

Eleri James (EJ), Welsh Language Commissioner

Bryn Jeffries (BJ), Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Richard Jones (RJ), Monmouthshire County Borough Council

Steve King (SK), City and County of Swansea

Morgan Lowden (ML), Isle of Anglesey County Council

Geraint Morgan (GM), Powys County Council

Hayley Randall (HR), Data Cymru

Eifion Rees (ER), Mid & West Wales Fire & Rescue Service

Heledd Rees (HR), ONS Local

Lesley Rees (LR), Carmarthenshire County Council

Abbie Sharp (AS), Pembrokeshire County Council

Elaine Smith (ES), Wrexham County Borough Council

Sam Sullivan (SS), Data Cymru

Caitlin Theodorou (CT), Ceredigion County Council

Alwyn Williams (AW), Isle of Anglesey County Council

Lowri Wyn Morton (LWM), Cyngor Gwynedd

Nia Wyn Vaughan (NWV), Cyngor Gwynedd

Speakers

Lloyd Harris (LH), Welsh Government

Steph Harries (SHa), Welsh Government

Steph Howarth (SH), Welsh Government

Nia Jones (NJ), Welsh Government

Chris McGowan (CM), Welsh Government

Elizabeth McLaren (EM), Office for National Statistics (ONS)

John Morris (JM), Welsh Government

Rich Murphy (RM), Welsh Government

Andy O’Rourke (AO), Welsh Government

Catherine Singleton (CS), Welsh Government

Sam Sullivan (SS), Data Cymru

Esther Taylor (ET), ONS

Jessica Walkeden (JW), ONS

Minute takers

Ryan Jones, Welsh Government

Alexia Hockett, Welsh Government

Apologies

Gwyneth Ayers, Carmarthenshire County Council

Vicki Doyle, Caerphilly County Borough Council

Carol Evans, Conwy County Borough Council

Leanne John, Swansea Council

Kate Jones, HM Prison and Probation Service in Wales

Helen Jones, Senedd Research

Nathan Lester, Public Health Wales

Martin Parry, Welsh Government

Neil Townsend, Office for National Statistics

Iwan Wyn Jones, Cyngor Gwynedd

The presentations will be published online after the meeting (following speakers’ permission).

The rules for simultaneous translation in the meeting were explained, and introductions were given from any new attendees.

No comments on minutes from previous meeting.  The previous actions were all complete.

A previous action was to follow up with updates on the transformed labour force survey (TLFS). ONS published two articles in April – a Labour Market Transformation update (ONS), which outlines the UK Statistics Authority Board’s decision on the way forward for LFS and TLFS, including the new TLFS design and timelines for transition; and an accompanying TLFS Technical Design article (ONS) which outlines the technical evidence presented to the Board to inform their decision. 

Data Cymru update (Sam Sullivan, Data Cymru)

SS discussed that they have put out a statistics explainer with an overview about what the stats system in Wales looks like, who is who, and what everyone does. This will be on the website soon under “Statistics Mystics Explainer”. 

SS added that the current consortium arrangement for the Household Income Estimates is coming to an end, so they are looking at how to expand as there is an appetite for this. There was a session on this on the 14 May 2025.

SS then talked about the National Residence survey, which is in its second year with an additional seven councils taking part compared to last year, and an additional two councils sharing their local data. This means that 19/22 local councils are taking part in year 2. 

SS mentioned that they are working on a Planning Officer Society Wales Dashboard. This dashboard looks at the number of applications that have come in and gone out. There is also a Road Safety Dashboard coming out soon looking at a number of targeted road safety interventions. 

SS added that the Wellbeing in Wales dashboard is getting updated which will be out in the next few months. The benchmarking dashboard where some local council services put data is also getting a revamp and will be coming out soon. 

SS also mentioned that there is a push for training, particularly for Power BI where an introductory course is being developed for end users. SS adds that introductory and intermediate Excel training is also being looked into, including instructional videos to help with Excel based problems – both should be coming soon.

Discussion

JE asked to be added to the list of people interested in household income work. 

Action 1: Hayley Randall to add JE to the household income list of people interested in household income work.

ES asked when they will receive module 2 of the National Residence Survey, as they need a report for their decision in July. HR responded that an email will be send out imminently on the timings for this.

ES asked about whether the PowerBI training is for developers or users. SS responded that it is for end users.

ES added that they are also interested in the e-learning training courses as they have created an in-house e-learning module on survey design based on HR’s e-learning as a starting point, adding that they have been credited and adapted for their organisation. ES is happy to share this. SS responded that they would like to see it. They also add that the National Resident Survey module 2 is about to be shared and go live.  The first part of the course survey was completed last year; the second part is an additional set of questions for a July release. 

SH asked what the questions are for module 2. SS responded that it is focussing more on councillors and members, and the interactions with councillors and members. The first part was more on councils and interactions with the council. 

Statistics Wales update (Steph Howarth, Welsh Government)

SH outlined that a new version of the open data platform StatsWales is currently being tested with users and thanked those in the group who have helped WG with user testing. The intention is to release the service in the summer. There will be a transition period where there will be a period of dual running of the old and new service to allow people to move over. WG’s digital and data blog will provide updates on the launch plans. 

SH drew group members’ attention to a number of items in the quarterly Statistics Wales update, including where there are requests for feedback and input.

Discussion

JE asked if datasets that are no longer being updated will be moved to the new StatsWales platform, or if they will be accessible from elsewhere. SH responded that archived datasets would be added to the new service on a case-by-case basis, depending on what is still being used. 

Action 2: All members to notify the Welsh Government of archived StatsWales datasets that they still use. They should contact the relevant team listed on the dataset.

JE asked about if time series data will be on there. SH responded that the full time series will still be on there, it just won’t be new data. 

GM asked about the ability to import data into PowerBI or other programmes. SH responded that there will be an API available with guidance.

SK raised an issue with commuting data, which appeared to show unexpected trends. SH took an action to pass this on to the relevant team for investigation. 

Action 3: SH to ask the Labour Market statistics team to respond to SK on the issues he identified with commuting data.

JE registered disapproval that the homelessness seminar is only in-person. This is a long way to travel for some areas in Wales, especially North Wales, and quite expensive. Other members agreed with this. 

SH responded that this feedback will be passed to the team. 

Action 4: Secretariat to pass on feedback about the homelessness seminar only being in-person back to the housing statistics team and suggest that presentations and a summary of the event are shared more widely

Population estimates (Elizabeth McLaren, ONS)

EM presented on admin-based population estimates. Since the previous meeting they have done an assessment of criteria used to assess whether they are ready to move over to an admin-based population estimate system. This was published a few weeks ago, and the decision was to continue to use the same methods for the mid-year 2024 estimates but then reassess the criteria in spring next year. 

This was agreed with by WG, and there is confidence that they can move to admin-based estimates next summer. EM continued to go through the outline of the approach to assessment and the criteria used, as well as areas of concern (see PowerPoint for more information). The three areas of concern were (1) user engagement, (2) data supply and quality, (3) coherence and comparability between dynamic population model and the official long term migration estimates. These areas will have more work done to them over the next 6 months to get them in a good position to go live with the admin-based population estimates becoming official next year.

EM discussed what will be published this summer, including international and internal migration estimates with admin-based data. For the survey that was completed in February, the results of this should be published in a few weeks. EM added that there has also been website transformation work and aims for it to include more data visualisations. EM finished by explaining that there is also work on a standalone quality and methods guide for the admin-based population estimates, and work to get the ABPS accredited.

Discussion

JE asked what’s happening to small area population estimates in terms of how they fit into the new methodology and what’s happening with the 2023 release.

EM responded that small area estimates are created as being constrained to the LA estimates. EM added that there won’t be a difference when we move to admin-based estimates, they’ll just be constrained to the LA figures for the admin estimates - it doesn’t really impact small area estimates. EM also adds that they want to look at what the difference would be to the small population estimate if they used the 2024 population mid-year estimates and ABPEs, however they are not expecting it to be an issue. They also want to verify mid-year estimates of the current method in terms of publication, and the plan is to publish small area estimates for both mid-2023 and mid-2024 this autumn. The 2022 small area estimates are being updated due to revisions in migration estimates. 

JE asked for guidance on communicating changed methods to population statistics (i.e. that this doesn’t necessarily mean there are fewer or more people in the population). JE also asked about the impact on funding, noting it may be something the WG needs to consider in terms of funding formulae. 

EM agreed that guidance would be helpful. SH added to JE’s point about funding that Martin has been talking to WG local government finance colleagues about this, with the distribution subgroup being the place to take this conversation forward.

EM added that they have funding impact groups with representation from Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, and are using this forum to explore these things. EM further added that when these figures come out from mid-2024 and the revisions to 22 and 23, it will provide a further opportunity to assess impact. 

JE reminded members that is on the Central local government information partnership group and that members can raise items with her for this group. 

SK supported pushing back the move to admin-based estimates. SK then added that as we are still close to the immediate post-census cycle, the issues of drift come a bit later down the line. He asked what criteria were not met this time that to move to admin-based estimates and are ONS confident that those issues will be solved by this time next year.

EM responded that a lot of work is in progress for the issues highlighted, so there is more confidence that over the next eight or so months, these things will be resolved. 

Post meeting note from ONS: 
‘We will publish estimates for mid-2023 for England and Wales after revisions are made to mid-2023 local authority estimates in summer 2025. This will be alongside a first release of mid-2024 local authority estimates.’ (Section 4 of Population estimates by output areas, electoral, health and other geographies, England and Wales: rebased mid-2012 to mid-2020, ONS)

The results of ONS’ population estimates survey have been published.

Migration projections (Jessica Walkeden, ONS)

JW presented on recent work on long term international migration. This included a recent long term international migration release. 

Discussion

JE asked about breaking down migration data to a Wales-level to understand the impact on Wales. 

JW responded that ONS publishes lower-level geographical breakdowns in the mid-year estimates. But visa data used in long-term international migration estimates does not contain information about where migrants live. SH added that Martin’s team have been making the case for those Welsh-level estimates under the new methods. 

National Statistician’s recommendation (Esther Taylor, ONS)

ET explained that the plan is to publish the recommendation on future population and migration statistics on 17 June and publish this alongside the 2023 consultation outcomes report. 

1. The first recommendation is that the UK Government commission ONS to undertakes a whole population questionnaire-based census in 2031.
2. The second is that the UK Government commission ONS to continues with admin data transformation work.
3. The third is that the UK and Welsh governments maintain and continue their commitment to data sharing across government. 

SH added that the Welsh Government will be issuing a Ministerial statement on the day of publication setting out our support for the approach. The Cabinet Secretary will write to the UK Government minister to highlight Welsh-related matters in order to reiterate the importance of considering these when developing a census.

ET responded that they may mention plans for a census topic consultation in the autumn. SH noted that this could be an agenda item for the next WSLC. 

Discussion

JE asked what happens after 2031 in terms of the census and the move towards admin data.  JE noted that a lot of the problems are still the same issues as from before and asked for thoughts around this.

ET responded that they have set out in recommendation the importance of continuing to use admin data as a central part of migration and population statistics. They have made progress on areas such as admin-based population estimates. ET added that they are happy to come to this group and talk about plans to get views on the census design and other elements as they evolve.   

Sub-national population projections (Steph Harries, Welsh Government)

SHa provided an overview of the key results of the recent user engagement exercise and sub-national population productions. Previously at WSLC, they have run through a short user-engagement exercise that ended on 11 April and are now considering the results of this. 

Sub-national population and household projections are progressing well. The team is no longer using POPGROUP to calculate projections and have moved to using R. The R code for population projections is now finished and tested, with the first run of population productions having been completed. The data is currently undergoing quality assurance and will then be shared with the Wales Subnational Projections (WaSP) working group, and later with local authorities. The publication is planned for the end of summer/early autumn. 

Discussion

It was asked if the R code will be shared. SHa responded that they are happy to share the R code once they have published the projections.

JE noted that POPGROUP does still work and is able to check the data that goes into POPGROUP gives the same or similar results as the R code. 

Main points

CM presented on the National Survey for Wales. The National Survey is transitioning in 2026/27 to online-first survey (expected to last approx. 30 mins), with telephone and paper-based alternatives. A respondent-driven, snowball sampling approach is also proposed to increase sample size within small minority ethnic and sexual orientation subgroups. In this approach, respondents will be asked to pass on links to the survey to up to three other people they know in the relevant subgroups. 

These design changes are designed to address the issues of cost pressures, declining response rates and sample sizes that are faced by the National Survey and large-scale social surveys in general. 

The first results from the 2024-25 survey will be published in summer 2025, with topic-specific findings to follow.

Discussion

SK asked if 2024-25 data will be available at local authority level for use in the wellbeing assessments, considering the falling sample sizes. 

CM responded that the decisions to publish data at local authority level is dependent on the margin of error within the data at those levels. For large local authorities this should be reasonable, but smaller local authorities might see large margins of error. CM further added that they are looking into publishing regional breakdowns, and that any input on how to group local authorities or other areas would be welcome. 

JE stated that Public Service Boards could be a useful geographic level to look at for regional breakdowns but also stated that national level data can be good enough to obtain key points.

ES asked if the 30-minute timing for the online survey is final, since it might still be too long and could make paper-based alternatives bulky if published in English and Welsh. 

CM responded that 30 minutes is at the upper end of what has been found to work well for online surveys, and should allow the breadth and relevance of the topics to be included. Respondent and interviewer feedback on the survey content has been positive in previous years. The aim is to balance collecting good-quality data with meeting survey users’ needs for information on a large number of topics. 

SS asked how the snowball sampling approach works with GDPR data privacy agreements.

CM responded that the snowball sampling approach does not collect data on others without their consent. Respondents will instead be given links to the survey to send to others, so only data from people who then take part in the survey is collected.

SK asked if there would be a user consultation on the proposed topics for the survey and whether some topics might be cut due to the short length.

CM responded that the team has worked to ensure that the topics included in the survey are as broad as possible. A user consultation is planned to take place in the Autumn to collect feedback on the proposed topics and changes to the survey questions.

BJ asked how partially completed responses are handled and if randomisation of the question orders will be included to put certain questions at the beginning. 

CM responded that a point is set early in the questionnaire that respondents must get past for a response to be collected. All responses, including any partial responses, will undergo checks to identify any problems such as unusually short timings or unusual patterns of response (such as selecting the first answer on every question). CM further added that randomising question order could be an option in future surveys but this is difficult in paper-based surveys and there are also other considerations such as avoiding putting many sensitive questions at the beginning of the survey.

Main points

NJ and AO presented on updates to the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2025. The response to the feedback survey on the proposed indicators for WIMD 2025 was published on 17 April. NJ and AO covered the current proposed indicators for WIMD 2025, while also highlighting any changes made since the response was published and changes yet to be finalised.

CS presented on updates to the publication of the main WIMD report. This is planned to be released as an HTML report with domains split into separate chapters. Feedback was collected from attendees on some designs for infographics and data tables to be included in the main report. 

RM presented on the development of the WIMD interactive mapping tool. Feedback was collected from attendees on their usage of the interactive mapping tool, as well as the features and services they would find most useful in the new tool.

Discussion

GM asked if the main publications are likely to contain maps. RM responded that the main report is likely to contain static maps.

LF commented that the current interactive mapping tool is user friendly, especially for non-technical users. 

NJ added that they are looking to use the 2021 LSOA boundaries, and the 2022 small area population estimates, but are not planning to update the population data with later revisions. However, they are willing to investigate the potential impacts the population estimates could have on WIMD.

SK commented that they are unsure about using the 2022 small area population estimates without updating, because ONS stated the data for 2024 would be published around September, and revisions to the 2022 data would be published alongside it. 

JE added that the revised population estimates for 2022 will also be the final versions and more stable estimates which could be something to consider. However, this does depend on how the revisions might impact different indicators.

NJ agreed and responded that it is difficult to know the full impacts because many parts of WIMD are progressing at different stages. If the revisions are published in September, it provides a very short window to re-run analysis with the new population data.

SH added that although the team would be keen to use the updated data, it does depend on whether it is possible under the time constraints of WIMD production and quality assurance during the last stages. NJ agreed and further added that WIMD users are keen to have the main outputs published in November without any major delays.

RJ asked if there are any changes to be made to the weighting of the indicators and domains following the feedback survey.

NJ responded that weightings will be reviewed once all data is collected, and the data quality is known. They are trying to avoid making any changes to weightings unless they can be strongly justified, but the team will be taking advice from the domain groups on this. NJ further added that the team has been doing some methodological work to see what the effects are from changing some of the weightings on WIMD overall.

Main points

JM provided an update on the development of new LSOA names. This work is now complete. Several local authorities had provided feedback on the draft list provided in November. Welsh Government provided some clarifications to authorities based on those comments, for example consistency with hyphenated names and ward names.

JM is aware that some local authorities were still having discussions on place names and were planning to raise these at the Welsh Language Commissioner’s place names panel. JM further added that he would be keen to hear of any local updates following those discussions. 

JM thanked those local authorities who had been actively involved, along with the Welsh Language Commissioner’s office and the team in Welsh Government who supported the work.

A blog post will be published soon, and a final list will be shared to the local authorities before publishing. The new list is planned to be published on StatsWales.

Main points

SH provided an update on timescales for the next annual Wellbeing of Wales report. The Wellbeing of Wales report is typically published in late September. There are plans this year to make the report more concise based on user analytics and feedback. 

There is an intention to review the national indicators once a Senedd term to ensure they remain relevant and measurable. 

Post meeting note: this plan for reviews has now been agreed by the First Minister. 

LH presented some slides on the updates to the next future trends report. This will focus on the future policy implications of Wales, which is planned to be shaped by both key internal colleagues in Welsh Government and external input from local communities and public sector. This is to be in line with the new Hwb Dyfodol - Future Generations Wales initiative that aims to strengthen lateral thinking across the Welsh public sector and set strong foundations for long-term planning towards the future generations act.

A final deadline for the future trends report is still being decided, but there are aims to have a final report by the end of 2026 with key milestones leading up to this focusing on what to include in the report.

Discussion

JE asked how long a Senedd term is. SH responded that from the 2026 election it will change from five years to four years. The national indicators were chosen to be reviewed once a Senedd term, to avoid having the issue of reviews happening too frequently, given they are long term in nature.

JE asked how the national indicators fit into the work of the Future Generations Commissioner. 

LH responded that the legislation for the future generations act puts in place lots of timelines for when reports and work need to be done by. Reports from the Future Generations Commissioner and Auditor General’s reports need to be published a year before an election. The Future Trends report is published one year after an election.

JE raised concerns that the timescales could go out of sync with the local government electoral cycles which is every five years instead of four years. JE further added that it would be helpful to know what potential impacts this could have, given that the wellbeing assessments are tied to the local government electoral cycles.

SK commented that having a Future Trends report ready by the end of 2026 might be too late to be helpful in the well-being assessments when considering the consultation and approval stages. This could lead to similar issues as the last cycle. JE further added that since local authorities would have to have the wellbeing assessments taken through their council approval processes, they would need something that is practically finished before the end of 2026. This is especially important since people will be thinking about local elections around this time as well.

LH appreciated this feedback and commented that they will look into making an interim release to help support the wellbeing assessments, and towards designing future cycles.

CT agreed with previous comments that last time the results came too late to inform the well-being assessments, so having something sooner that could be used would be very helpful.

SH asked if publishing the outcome of the national indicator review around November 2026 would cause similar issues.

LR agreed that the publication timing of the national indicator review would cause similar issues.

SH added that in some cases there is not data available to measure all the national indicators immediately. However, the feedback provided on timings is useful and they will consider how to best coordinate the reports and reviews to meet user needs.

SH asked for any further questions or comments, or what attendees would find valuable for topics on this item in future meetings. 

JE commented that the resourcing for local wellbeing assessments and population needs assessments has likely depleted over time. As a result, it would be good to focus on sharing to be more supportive and lighten any burden.

ES asked if the person responsible for wellbeing assessments in Wrexham could be invited to future meetings for this item.

SH agreed and noted that it would be beneficial for future items to include time for updates from SH and LH, as well as time for local authorities to share current work, research and thoughts.

JE pointed towards the recently published Future Generations report by the Future Generations Commissioner as something that might be helpful to direct work for the future trends report.

SK made some comments to the public service board coordinator some time ago and wondered if there have been any updates on the Welsh Government review into guidance that the coordinators were working on. 

LH responded that the public service board responsibility has recently moved to the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice. There has not currently been chance to finalise it, but LH is meeting with the public servicer board coordinators and can raise it there.

JE mentioned that she works on the Population Needs Assessment that runs on a similar timeframe and has worked closely with regional partnership boards in health and social care that reaches. JE is happy to keep LH updated on what happens through those conversations.

CT raised some concerns on producing electoral division projections because there is no standard methodology in place and local authorities are taking different approaches. CT further asked if other local authorities share these concerns or are interested in working together to develop a more consistent and robust approach.

JE added that this would fit nicely with the Future Generations act work although it could be challenging to find an approach that works for all local authorities.

SH asked if extending work like the sub-national population projections or having a group discussion to share ideas collectively might be helpful.

JE added that local authorities are often asked to produce projections across a range of topic areas and there could be benefit in coordinating this work. 

SH noted that this would be a good item for a future meeting. 

Action 5: Chair to include an item for developing a more consistent and robust approach to local projections in a future meeting.

The next meeting will take place on Thursday 2 October.

Action 1: Hayley Randall to add JE to the household income list of people interested in household income work (completed)

Action 2: All members to notify the Welsh Government of archived StatsWales datasets that they still use. They should contact the relevant team listed on the dataset

Action 3: SH to ask the Labour Market statistics team to respond to SK on the issues he identified with commuting data. (completed by Marcela Csikosova WG)

Action 4: SH to take feedback about the homelessness seminar only being in-person back to the team. Ask how to make sure information can be shared with people who cannot attend (completed)

Action 5: secretariat to add to forward agenda for Chair to include an item for developing a more consistent and robust approach to electoral division projections in a future meeting (completed)