Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM UK) Wales report 2024

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) is an international research project, involving 51 economies in 2024, that provides comprehensive insights into the entrepreneurial landscape across countries. Extensive research has shown that entrepreneurship plays a crucial role in driving economic growth, enhancing competitiveness, and creating jobs. GEM results are widely used by regional and national authorities as key benchmarking indicators. In 2024, the sample size in Wales was 1,149 adults aged 18 and over, boosted through additional support from the Welsh Government as part of the UK national survey.

• The rate of total early-stage entrepreneurship (TEA) in Wales in 2024 was 10.8 per cent. This represents a slight decrease from 11.5 per cent in 2023, but the change is not statistically significant. The 2024 TEA rate in Wales is also not significantly different from that in England (12.2%) or the UK overall (12.0%).
   
• Entrepreneurs in Wales in 2024 were most strongly motivated to start a business either to earn a living because jobs are scarce or to build great wealth or a very high income, with just under 70 per cent citing one of these motivations. Very few cited continuing a family tradition. The share of those motivated “to make a difference in the world” was also high (around 60%), in line with the UK average.  
   
• At 9.8 per cent, the female TEA rate in Wales in 2024 was not significantly different from the male rate of 11.9 per cent. Both rates were broadly stable compared to 2023. The female-to-male TEA ratio in Wales stood at 82 per cent, the highest among the UK home nations. This narrowing of the gender gap was due to a fall in male TEA rather than an increase in female TEA.
   
• Youth entrepreneurship remains high. In 2024, the TEA rate among 18–24-year-olds in Wales was 9.9 per cent—down from 14.0 per cent in 2023 and a record high 16.5 per cent in 2021 but still well above the 2.0 per cent recorded in 2002. Across the UK, youth TEA reached a record high of 13.7 per cent. The 18–29 age group in Wales saw a fourfold increase in TEA since 2002, rising from 3.4 per cent to 13.5 per cent in 2024.
   
• Graduate status continues to influence entrepreneurship. In 2024, the TEA rate for graduates in Wales was 13.9 per cent, compared to 8.3 per cent for non-graduates. However, this difference was not statistically significant. A similar pattern was observed in Northern Ireland, while statistically significant differences were found in England and Scotland.
   
• Attitudes towards entrepreneurship in Wales are broadly in line with UK averages. In 2024, 42.3 per cent of non-entrepreneurs in Wales felt they had the skills to start a business, and 48.1 per cent knew someone who had started a business—similar to UK figures. Among young people (18–24), 64.2 per cent knew an entrepreneur, significantly higher than the 48.1 per cent among the wider (18-64) non-entrepreneurial population.
   
• Perceptions of start-up opportunities remain low in Wales. In 2024, only 31.9 per cent of non-entrepreneurs in Wales believed there were good opportunities to start a business locally in the next six months, significantly lower than the UK figure of 43.2 per cent. This gap, which had narrowed post-Covid, has started to widen again.
   
• Fear of failure continues to be a major barrier. Among those who perceived good opportunities, 60.8 per cent in Wales said fear of failure would prevent them from starting a business, broadly in line with the UK rate of 58.2 per cent. Rates have risen since 2017, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and post-pandemic anxiety.
   
• Entrepreneurial intention remains elevated. In 2024, 22.6 per cent of non-entrepreneurial working-age adults in Wales expected to start a business within the next three years, up from 20.0 per cent in 2023. This compares to a UK rate of 26.4 per cent, which is significantly higher than in previous years.
   
• No significant difference was found in TEA rates in relation to Welsh language fluency. In 2024, TEA stood at 14.1 per cent among fluent Welsh speakers, 13.2 per cent among those with some Welsh, and 9.0 per cent among those with little or no Welsh—none of the differences were statistically significant.

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) is an international project which seeks to provide information on the entrepreneurial landscape of countries based on the following premises. First, an economy’s prosperity is highly dependent on a dynamic entrepreneurship sector. Second, an economy’s entrepreneurial capacity is composed of individuals from all groups in society with the ability and motivation to start businesses, and requires positive societal perceptions about entrepreneurship. Third, high-growth entrepreneurship is a key contributor to new employment in an economy, and national competitiveness depends on innovative and cross-border entrepreneurial ventures.

The Welsh Government (WG) sponsors the Welsh component of the GEM UK research project. Stimulating entrepreneurship remains an important challenge for the region and WG has taken the lead in ensuring that it is embedded within its core activities. This is the twenty second year in which the WG has participated in GEM. Of the 390,000 respondents to GEM UK surveys for the period 2002-2024, around 71,000 respondents are from Wales. Wales now has one of the largest databases on entrepreneurial attitudes, activity and aspirations of the home nations of the UK for this period. This is particularly useful when conducting trend analysis for important sub-populations in Wales, such as women, the young or older people.

The results from GEM data analysis are used as key benchmarking indicators by regional and national authorities around the world. They also enable comparisons to be made with the other regions of the UK and other countries participating in GEM.  Overall, GEM’s unique ability to provide information on the entrepreneurial landscape of countries in a global context makes its data a necessary resource for any serious attempt to study and track entrepreneurial behaviour. 

It is important that we better understand the determinants of early-stage entrepreneurship, because there is evidence to suggest a connection between higher rates of entrepreneurship and overall economic prosperity, particularly in innovation-driven economies like Wales.

GEM creates an index of early-stage entrepreneurial activity (known as TEA) using the following approach:

• A telephone and online survey of a random sample of the adult population is conducted between May and September.
• The TEA index is the sum of those respondents classified as nascent entrepreneurs and new firm entrepreneurs (The active planning phase in which the entrepreneur has done something during the past 12 months to help start a new business, a new business that he/she will at least part own, and which has not paid wages or other income to the owners in the past 3 months. The second phase is defined as from 4 to 42 months after the new venture begins to provide income to the owners. Entrepreneurs who at least part own and manage a new business that has been paying some form of income to the owners for at least 4 and not more than 42 months are referred to as new firm entrepreneurs).

The TEA index does not measure all entrepreneurial activity and is not based on a survey of business entities.  It measures the characteristics of entrepreneurial individuals and the types of entities they establish.  As such it is a unique and internationally comparative measure of the cultural propensity of a nation, or region, to be entrepreneurial.

Previously in GEM, the method to distinguish between different types of entrepreneurial activity was to measure the extent to which the activity was based on necessity (i.e. there are no better alternatives for work) or opportunity (where entrepreneurs may be exploiting the potential for new market creation).  The current motivation questions, spanning a wider choice, enable a more detailed disaggregation of entrepreneurial motivation than the previous binary choice allowed. In addition to activity, the GEM survey asks all respondents about their attitudes to entrepreneurial activity, and asks entrepreneurs about their aspirations.

The methodology, sample sizes and weighting systems used for the GEM UK 2024 adult population survey are explained in more detail in the GEM UK 2024/25 report (www.gemconsortium.org). In response to Covid-19 disruptions, GEM UK introduced a blended data collection approach in 2020, combining random digit dialling of landlines and mobiles with BMG’s online panel. This marked a key methodological shift aimed at ensuring robust and reliable results. In 2024, around 20% of the raw sample in Wales was collected via CATI, with approximately 80% gathered through the online panel. 

The following report presents a summary of the headline results and key themes arising from the GEM survey in 2024 as well as an analysis of the twenty-two years of GEM data (2002-24). 

The rate of early-stage entrepreneurship in Wales in 2024 was 10.8 per cent which was a slight decrease on the estimate of 11.5 per cent in 2023. The difference, however, was not statistically significant. The rate in Wales in 2024 was lower, but not significantly different, from that in England (12.2 per cent) and the UK estimate of 12.0 per cent (Figure 1). 

Overall, a TEA rate of 10.8 per cent in Wales equates to around one in every nine adults aged 18-64, or around 254,000 individuals, around 70 per cent of whom were in the very early stages of starting a business (nascent entrepreneurs 7.5 per cent) and the remainder those who had a new business which was between 4 and 42 months old (4.2 per cent).  To compare the rate for nascent entrepreneurs in the UK was 8.1 per cent.

Image

As Figure 2a shows the rate of early-stage entrepreneurial activity in both Wales and the UK remained relatively stable between 2004 and 2010, at around 6 per cent. The rates diverged thereafter, accompanied by volatility in both series.  As with other parts of the UK, early-stage entrepreneurial activity in Wales saw a new high in 2021 at 10.3 per cent, and then in 2023 at 11.5 per cent, exceeding the UK rate (10.7 per cent) that year.   

In 2024 the nascent entrepreneurial activity rate in Wales was 7.5 per cent, not significantly lower than the 8.5 per cent recorded in 2023. The new business ownership rate of 4.2 per cent was up but not significantly different to the rate of 3.8 per cent in 2023. In comparison, the nascent entrepreneurship rate in the UK increased from 7.3 per cent in 2023 to 8.1 in 2024.  The new business ownership rate for the UK also increased from 4.2 per cent in 2023 to 5.0 in 2024.  

Image

Until 2009, the TEA rates in East and West Wales were similar (Figure 2b). Following the global financial crisis, TEA rates became more volatile, though the differences remained statistically insignificant. In 2024, the TEA rate in West Wales was 9.8 per cent, compared to 11.7 per cent in East Wales.  

Image

In the 2020 survey, a new and improved method of looking at founders’ motives for starting their business was introduced. Previously the question asked was too constrained and only allowed for a choice between necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship. These questions were replaced with those which allowed for a combination of motives, enabling a more realistic set of drivers for start-up. 

The four motives are “to make a difference in the world”, “to build great wealth or very high income”, “to continue a family tradition” and “to earn a living because jobs are scarce.” The former two can be thought of as more opportunity driven, while the third is more complex as this could be both due to either opportunity or necessity. The final one can be thought of as more necessity driven. However, the fundamental point is that these options are now not mutually exclusive, and entrepreneurs can report more than one motivation and the degree to which they identify with them. Note that these motivations do not include autonomy or independence; this is because pre-tests showed that this was a universal motivation for entrepreneurs and does not distinguish between types of entrepreneurs. 

Figure 3 presents a breakdown of entrepreneurial motives by home nation, expressed as a percentage of early-stage entrepreneurs. As in previous years, entrepreneurs across all home nations were far less likely to cite 'continuing a family tradition' as a motivation compared to other reasons. The two most common motivations for starting a business were 'to earn a living because jobs are scarce' and 'to build great wealth or a very high income.' In Wales, just under 70 per cent of early-stage entrepreneurs cited one of these two reasons—higher than the UK averages of 64 and 67 per cent, respectively. Additionally, around three in five entrepreneurs in Wales reported being motivated 'to make a difference in the world,' a figure consistent with the UK average. 

Image

Gender

Males typically have higher early-stage entrepreneurial activity rates than females. In 2024 the male TEA rate in Wales was 11.9 per cent compared to a female rate of 9.8 per cent - the difference was not statistically significant (Figure 4).  

The ratio of female to male early-stage entrepreneurial activity in the UK has historically been around 50 per cent, but the gap has narrowed considerably over time, standing at 69 per cent in 2024, compared with a record 85 per cent in 2023. In Wales, the ratio in 2024 was the highest among the home nations at 82 per cent, up from 70 per cent in 2023. However, this increase is due to a decline in the male TEA rate rather than a rise in the female TEA rate. By comparison, Northern Ireland’s ratio stood at 73 per cent, while Scotland and England recorded lower ratios of 64 and 68 per cent respectively, both driven by sharp increases in male TEA rates.

Image

The female TEA rate in Wales has fluctuated since 2011, reaching a record high of 9.8 per cent in 2021, repeated again in 2024 after the dip in 2022 (Figure 5).  Figure 5 demonstrates that female TEA rates in Wales matched the UK trend until 2010 and after a period of divergence appeared to be tracking the UK trend again from 2018. Apart from the dip in 2022, the female rates reconverged in 2023 to just under 10 per cent. 

Image

Age

While individuals aged 25–34 typically exhibit the highest rates of early-stage entrepreneurial activity in the UK, this pattern does not hold across all home nations—for example, in Northern Ireland, 18–24-year-olds are the most entrepreneurial. In 2024, individuals aged 45 and over in the UK had significantly lower entrepreneurial activity rates than all younger age groups. In Wales, the TEA rate for those aged 55–64 was significantly lower than that of the 25–34 and 35–44 age groups (Figure 6). 

Image

For several years, entrepreneurial activity in Wales has been shifting towards a younger generation. Notably, during the Great Recession, TEA rates among 18–24-year-olds peaked at 10.2 per cent in 2011. Although the rate declined in the following years, it rose again to a record high of 16.5 per cent in 2021. In 2024, the rate fell to 9.9 per cent from 14.0 per cent in 2023 (Figure 7). In contrast, the UK rate for this age group has been steadily increasing in recent years, reaching a record high of 13.7 per cent in 2024.  

Compared to the UK, the higher rate of early-stage entrepreneurial activity amongst 18-24 year olds in Wales witnessed during the recession suggests they faced a tougher economic climate, the lack of jobs necessitating entry into self-employment which dissipated as the economy recovered. Since 2015 there had been a rise in youth entrepreneurship in the UK which had not been mirrored in Wales, that is until 2020 when the pandemic appears to have again driven necessity entrepreneurship among this age group. This has since continued and may also reflect the increased provision of youth entrepreneurship activities by the Welsh Government. Enterprise education has been a major contributor factor in recent decades and this evidence indicates it may well be having an impact on the actual entrepreneurial activities of these young people.

Image

A potentially more insightful analysis is to examine the trend in TEA rates for the 18–29 age group—where a natural break appears in the UK GEM data—and compare it to the 30–64 age group. Figure 8 shows that, despite considerable year-on-year fluctuations, the TEA rate for young adults in Wales has increased more than fourfold over two decades, rising from 3.4 per cent in 2002 to 13.5 per cent in 2024. Notably, the two peaks in youth entrepreneurial activity—around 2011 (9.7 per cent) and 2021 (15.3 per cent)—coincide with major crisis periods: the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, respectively. Although the 2024 rate is slightly down from the 2021 peak, it remains historically high. Other home nations have also experienced rising TEA rates among 18–29-year-olds over this period, with England and Scotland recording higher rates than Wales in 2024—16.1 and 15.9 per cent, respectively—contributing to a UK average that reached a record high of 15.9 per cent (Figure 9a).

The increase in early-stage entrepreneurial activity among the 30–64 age group has been slower over the past two decades compared to the 18–29 age group (Figure 8). In Wales, the TEA rate for those aged 30–64 rose from 4.4 per cent in 2002 to 10.8 per cent in 2023, before dipping slightly to 10.4 per cent in 2024. Northern Ireland saw the fastest growth, with the rate increasing from 3.5 per cent in 2002 to 9.2 per cent in 2024. Scotland’s rate rose from 5.7 per cent to 8.8 per cent over the same period. In both England and the UK as a whole, TEA rates peaked in 2021 and remained high in 2024, at 11.1 and 10.9 per cent respectively (Figure 9b).

Image

Image

Image

Education

Graduates in the UK typically have higher rates of early-stage entrepreneurial activity than non-graduates. In 2024, the UK graduate TEA rate was 15.8 per cent, significantly higher than the 8.6 per cent rate for non-graduates (Figure 10). While both rates differed from their 2022 levels, neither change was statistically significant.

In Wales, the 2024 graduate TEA rate was 13.9 per cent, compared to 8.3 per cent for non-graduates, but the difference was not statistically significant— similar to Northern Ireland. In contrast, in Scotland and England, graduate TEA rates were statistically significantly higher than those of non-graduates.

Image

GEM has developed a number of attitudinal statements which provide a proxy for entrepreneurial potential in a country/region.  They include knowing a person who has started a business in the last 2 years; perception of good opportunities for start-up; self-belief in possessing the relevant skills to set up in business and the prevalence of fear of failure as a deterrent to setting up in business. 

GEM attitudinal data is reported here for that portion of the population who are not already entrepreneurs, as individuals who are involved in entrepreneurial activity may feel compelled to provide positive answers in the Adult Population Survey (APS). 

In Wales in 2024 48.1 per cent of non-entrepreneurial individuals state that they know an entrepreneur, which is not significantly different to the UK rate of 49.5 per cent (Figure 11), nor to the rate in 2023. In total 42.3 per cent of non-entrepreneurs in Wales believe they have the skills to set up in business, again similar to the UK average of 42.8 per cent. Fear of failure remained relatively high in 2024. Around three fifths of non-entrepreneurs in both Wales (60.8 per cent) and the UK (58.2 per cent) stated that fear of failure would prevent them from starting a business.

Just 31.9 per cent of non-entrepreneurs in Wales believe there are good start-up opportunities in their area in the next six months. This increased from 28.6 per cent in 2023 but this difference was not statistically significant. In comparison 43.2 per cent of non-entrepreneurs in the UK perceived there to be good start-up opportunities which was significantly higher than the share in Wales.

Image

Figure 12 displays the same set of attitudes towards entrepreneurship, focusing exclusively on 18–24-year-olds. Similar to the overall population, the largest difference between young non-entrepreneurs in Wales and the UK was in the perception of start-up opportunities: only 37.7 per cent of young non-entrepreneurs in Wales perceived good start-up opportunities in their area over the next six months, compared to 45.8 per cent in the UK. However, this difference is not statistically significant.

When comparing the attitudes of young people to those of all non-entrepreneurs (as shown in Figure 11), a significantly higher proportion of young people in Wales reported knowing someone who has started a business in the past two years - 64.2 per cent compared to 48.1 per cent among the wider non-entrepreneurial population. There were no significant differences between the groups on other attitudinal measures. A similar pattern is observed across the UK, where 64.1 per cent of young people reported knowing someone who had started a business, compared to 49.5 per cent of the overall non-entrepreneurial population, with no significant differences on other measures. 

Image

In the 2024 survey, 31.9 per cent of the non-entrepreneurial working-age population in Wales agreed there were good opportunities to start a business in their local area within the next six months, compared to 43.2 per cent across the UK—a statistically significant difference. Typically, the gap in opportunity perceptions between Wales and the UK has been statistically significant since the global financial crisis, though it narrowed following the Covid-19 crisis. Since 2023, however, the trend has shifted again towards divergence (Figure 13). 

Image

The proportion of the non-entrepreneurial population in Wales that see good start-up opportunities but report that the fear of failure would prevent them starting a business stood at 60.8 per cent in 2024, which was not significantly different to 2023 when it was 60.2 per cent. The UK rate of 58.2 per cent was also not significantly different to the equivalent rate in 2023 of 56.5 per cent. 

Figure 14 shows that fear of failure has risen in Wales since 2017 as it did in the other home nations.  This upward trend may well reflect the increasing levels of uncertainty over Brexit during that period. The pandemic further contributed towards increased fear of failure, with increases observed since 2020. There were no significant differences in the fear of failure rates across the home nations in 2024.

Image

In 2024, 22.6 per cent of non-entrepreneurial working-age adults in Wales reported intending to start a business within the next three years. While this marks an increase from the previous peak of 18.8 per cent in 2021, the change is not statistically significant (Figure 15). Across the UK, however, the 2024 estimate of 26.4 per cent represents a statistically significant rise compared to both 2023 and earlier years. Past increases in entrepreneurial intentions during the global financial crisis were likely driven by necessity. Although there was a dip in Wales in 2022, the general upward trend in intention rates since 2020 likely reflects a mix of necessity—such as job losses during the pandemic—and opportunity, including new ways of working and emerging digital possibilities.

Image

In 2024, 26.3 per cent of non-entrepreneurially active males in Wales indicated an intention to start a business within the next three years, compared to 18.9 per cent of females. However, this difference is not statistically significant (Figure 16).

The resulting female-to-male intention ratio of 72 per cent in Wales is broadly in line with England (79 per cent) and the UK average (77 per cent), and higher than in Scotland (68 per cent) and Northern Ireland (61 per cent). However, it remains below the female-to-male ratio for early-stage entrepreneurship in Wales, which stood at 82 per cent in 2024.

Image

There were no significant differences in 2024 in the TEA rates of those in Wales who were fluent in spoken and written Welsh (14.1 per cent); who could speak and understand some Welsh (13.2 per cent), and who had little or no Welsh skills (9.0 per cent). 

Entrepreneurial activity in Wales has remained strong in 2024, following the record high observed in 2023. Although the TEA rate dipped slightly to 10.8 per cent from 11.5 per cent in the previous year, this change is not statistically significant, indicating continued resilience in the Welsh entrepreneurial landscape. Intentions to start a business also remain elevated, with 22.6 per cent of non-entrepreneurial working-age adults in Wales expecting to start a business within the next three years—up from 20.0 per cent in 2023 and among the highest on record. Notably, one in four men intend to start a business, compared to fewer than one in five women.

The stability in entrepreneurial activity is underpinned by growing confidence among the population, particularly among younger people and graduates. The gender gap in early-stage entrepreneurship has narrowed further, with a female-to-male TEA ratio of 82 per cent in 2024—the highest among UK nations—driven by a fall in male entrepreneurship rather than a rise in female activity. Youth entrepreneurship, although down from its 2021 peak, remains historically high at 9.9 per cent among 18–24-year-olds, a sharp contrast to the 2.0 per cent recorded in 2002. Young people also report significantly stronger entrepreneurial networks, with 64.2 per cent knowing someone who started a business—much higher than the wider population.

Entrepreneurial attitudes across the general population in Wales remain broadly positive. Around 42 per cent of non-entrepreneurs believe they have the skills to start a business, and a similar share know someone who has recently done so. These indicators have remained consistent year-on-year and highlight important strengths within the Welsh entrepreneurial ecosystem. However, opportunity perceptions remain a challenge. In 2024, only 31.9 per cent of non-entrepreneurs in Wales believed there were good local start-up opportunities—significantly lower than the UK average of 43.2 per cent. Moreover, this gap, which had narrowed following the pandemic, began to widen again in 2023.

Fear of failure continues to be a barrier for many potential entrepreneurs. In 2024, around 61 per cent of those who saw opportunities in Wales said fear of failure would prevent them from acting, mirroring the high levels seen across the UK. This concern persists despite the continued strength in entrepreneurial intention, suggesting that fear may not deter the most committed would-be entrepreneurs, but may still inhibit broader participation.

The updated motivation indicators introduced in recent years continue to shed light on the drivers of entrepreneurship in Wales. As in 2023, early-stage entrepreneurs were most likely to be motivated either by necessity—earning a living in the face of scarce job opportunities—or by the ambition to build wealth. Just under 70 per cent identified with one of these two motivations, higher than the UK average. Around three in five Welsh entrepreneurs also said they were motivated to “make a difference in the world,” indicating the importance of personal values alongside economic factors. Very few were driven by the desire to continue a family business tradition.

In sum, entrepreneurial activity in Wales remains robust, with consistently high levels of intention, solid performance among youth and women, and continued resilience in the face of economic uncertainty. Compared to 2002, youth TEA has quadrupled. With a growing share of young people embedded in entrepreneurial networks and exposed to enterprise education, the potential for continued growth in entrepreneurship—particularly among younger cohorts—remains strong.

This report is based on data collected by the GEM consortium and the GEM UK team; responsibility for analysis and interpretation of the data is the sole responsibility of the authors.

For further information on the GEM UK project, contact:

Professor Mark Hart
Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship Group
Aston Business School, Aston University
Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET

Email: mark.hart@aston.ac.uk