Formative evaluation of ERDF-funded A40 road operation (summary)

ERDF funding was secured by the Welsh Government as part of the 2014-20 ERDF West Wales and the Valleys Operational Programme (OP) ^{[footnote 1]} to deliver improvements to two arterial roads in Wales: the A55 and the A40. This report provides a formative evaluation of new highway on the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin and Redstone Cross in Mid and South West Wales.

The strategic rationale for ERDF investment is set out in the OP. This contains an objective to invest in the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) ^{[footnote 2]}. The core investment rationale set out in the OP is economic and states that investments should aim to mitigate peripherality and demonstrate that they are addressing bottlenecks in terms of access to employment or unlocking opportunities for regional economic growth ^{[footnote 3]}. Operations are also expected to make a positive contribution to sustainable travel options, including through the provision of cycleways, footpaths, etc. in addition to the improved highway.

The Llanddewi Velfrey to Redstone Cross Improvements scheme is located between Carmarthen and Haverfordwest. It comprises the construction of 4.3km of new highway to the north of the village of Llanddewi Velfrey and 1.8km of improvements between Redstone Cross and Penblewin Roundabout. In total this operation will provide 6.1km of improved highways including additional overtaking opportunities to improve journey reliability and road safety.

The total costs of the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Redstone Cross operation were reprofiled between September 2022 and September 2023. The approved total project costs were £52.884m, comprising £45.462m of ERDF funding and £7.421m from the Welsh Government. Total eligible project costs were £52.290m, comprising £45.462m of ERDF funding and £6.828m from the Welsh Government. The revised figures represented a 86.94% intervention rate. 

The OP defined a series of result and output indicators which operations funded by ERDF were expected to achieve. In the case of the Llanddewi Velfrey to Redstone Cross operation, these were: 

• the ERDF Result Indicator was a 5-10% increase in average speed along the A40 (from a new baseline average of 41mph in 2016 ^{[footnote 4]})
• the ERDF Output Indicators were:
  • total length of reconstructed or upgraded roads (including TEN-T): 6.1km
  • footpath or cycleway created or reconstructed: 1km

All operations funded through ERDF must also integrate a series of Cross-Cutting Themes (CCT) into their design and delivery, consistent with the 2015 Wellbeing of Future Generations Act. These relate to sustainable development, tackling poverty and social inclusion, and equal opportunities and gender mainstreaming and the Welsh language.

Methodology

The evaluation adopted a mixed-methods approach. This involved a desk-based review of policy and strategy documents, stakeholder consultations and analysis of programme monitoring data. The stakeholders that were consulted included representatives from the project delivery teams (22), regional representatives from the Welsh Government (6), local authority representatives (9), and community and business organisations (11).

Assessment of continued strategic fit

Despite changes to the policy context since the development of the scheme, particularly in relation to climate change, the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Redstone Cross operation continues to align with the Welsh Government’s objectives to improve regional connectivity and existing transport infrastructure through investment to support economic development and improved wellbeing. While there has been an observable shift, both nationally and locally, in priorities regarding low-carbon and environment aims and targets, strategic consultees from the Welsh Government thought the operation remained relevant as it was supportive of these aims. In particular, the operation had ambitions to protect biodiversity and promote active travel.

Assessment of project management and monitoring arrangements

The project management arrangements were seen as effective and working well. This was due to the knowledge and experience of the project delivery team, effective information flows and the partnership arrangements with local stakeholders. 

The monitoring systems at a project delivery level were robust, and sufficient information was provided to the Welsh Government to enable effective management and oversight. Monitoring reports to WEFO have been comprehensive with a regular dialogue established between Welsh Government’s Infrastructure Delivery Division and WEFO and the wider delivery team. 

Overall, feedback from local consultees was positive on the level of communication and engagement on the operation, particularly in regard to the role of the Public Liaison Officer.

Cross-Cutting Themes

Good progress had been made against the CCTs as all of the CCT case level indicators for this operation had been achieved. A wide range of actions were taken linked to sustainable development, community benefits and active travel among others, which exceeded the original targets. This reflects both the importance attached to the CCTs in the Operational Programme and business case and the commitment of the contractor and project team.

In terms of embedding the CCTs in future projects, the main suggestion was to ensure they are included in the tender and contract documentation to ensure contractors are aware of the requirements early on.

Progress against outputs and outcomes

Since the A40 improvement scheme was approved for ERDF funding, the operation has experienced notable delays which has meant that the operation completion date has been moved back to autumn 2024. These delays led to revisions in the work eligible for ERDF funding. By the time of the formative evaluation, one of the ERDF output indicators had been achieved (1km of footway/cycleway) whilst the other outputs had been partially achieved. This included 4.5km of reconstructed or upgraded road, with the remainder expected to be claimed in December 2024. 

From January 2024, the scheme is ‘non-functioning’, which means that no further ERDF funding can be claimed. However, work on the scheme will continue, with funding from Welsh Government, to realise the ERDF investment. In addition, to allow for the full outputs to be reported to WEFO, the operation has been extended to December 2024. 

The total costs of the combined A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Redstone Cross operation were reprofiled between September 2022 and September 2023. Total eligible project costs were £52.290m, comprising £45.462m of ERDF funding and £6.828m from the Welsh Government. By the end of December 2023, total eligible expenditure was £50.899m, which was made up of £44.254m of ERDF grant and £8.630m of Welsh Government match funding.

The outcomes for the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Redstone Cross operation were dependent on the completion of the scheme and a period of monitoring following completion, and, as such, robust evidence was not available at the time of the formative evaluation. However, consultees from the delivery team were confident that they would be achieved in due course. Several wider outcomes were anticipated by consultees, including improvements to travel time reliability, reduction in the number of collisions, improved experience for Active Travel users, and reduced community severance among others.

Value for money assessment

Based on a number of assumptions, the economic appraisal and cost benefit analysis produced a benefit to cost ratio of 0.13 for the Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvements and a benefit to cost ratio of 0.27 for the Penblewin to Redstone Cross improvements. However, it should be noted that not all costs and benefits of the scheme can be quantified and monetised which means that there are a range of impacts which are not captured in an economic appraisal. From a qualitative perspective, consultees were in agreement that the scheme offered public value, in broad terms. The reasons for this included the safety improvements and better quality of life for the residents of Llanddewi Velfrey.

Looking to the future, there will not be any further European funding for road schemes due to Britain’s exit from the European Union, and the outcome of the Roads Review suggests there will be lower levels of funding for road schemes in Wales going forward. However, there are a couple of key findings from this report which could inform future similar projects:

• the role of Public Liaison Officer at the contractor was of great value in building good relationships with local residents and businesses, and in delivering community benefits as part of the project
• the project delivery team took a creative and ambitious approach to delivering the CCTs, with their actions exceeding the original targets; whist the CCTs are strongly integrated into European funding, they have relevance to the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act and a similar approach could be taken in future in terms of embedding them in the contract and ensuring commitment to deliver against them by the contractor and project team
• facilitating collaborative workshops with key delivery team staff at the start of January 2023 helped to promote joint working and led to significant progress being made on the scheme; holding these workshops earlier in scheme delivery may have encouraged more open communications from the outset

[1] West Wales and the Valleys: European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) operational programme 2014 to 2020 summary

[2] The A40 forms part of the E30 TEN-T route, extending from Ireland to Russia.

[3] West Wales and the Valleys: European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) operational programme 2014 to 2020 summary

[4] The original baseline was calculated using Trafficmaster data. The new baseline has been calculated using Inrix data as Trafficmaster data is no long available. Further information on this can be found in chapter 7.

Report author: SQW

Views expressed in this report are those of the researchers and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government.

For further information please contact:

Research, Monitoring and Evaluation team
Welsh Government
Cathays Park
Cardiff
CF10 3NQ

Email: research.evaluation@gov.wales

Social research number: 39/2026
Digital ISBN: 978-1-83745-115-9