Short-term output indicators: October to December 2025 (headline results)
Data showing the short term movements in the output of industries in the production, construction and market services sectors for October to December 2025.
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Introduction
These estimates cover to October to December 2025 and annual estimates for January 2025 to December 2025.
Estimates for individual quarters can fluctuate and estimates for Wales are typically more volatile than for the UK, therefore a consideration of longer-term trends and comparisons are recommended.
Main points
Production and Market Services both increased on an annual and on a quarterly basis, whilst Construction decreased on an annual basis but increased on a quarterly basis.
Figure 1: short-term output indicators, October 1999 to December 2025
Description of figure 1: this chart shows the time series for the indices of production, construction, and market services since 1999. The overall trend is the index of market services and index of production have generally increased since 1999, but the index of construction has fluctuated over the same time period. All indices experienced a steep fall in 2020 Q2 due to the coronavirus pandemic, however have since been recovering or are fully recovered.
Source: Short-term output indicators, Welsh Government and Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Index of Market Services
The longer-term trend shows a 0.3% increase for Wales and a 1.4% increase for the UK in the year to December 2025 compared with the previous twelve months.
In Wales, five of the nine sub-sectors increased on an annual basis, three decreased, and one saw no change.
The Index of Market Services for Wales increased by 1.0% when compared to the previous quarter. UK output showed no change over the same period.
Index of Production
The longer-term trend shows a 0.9% increase for Wales and a 0.3% decrease for the UK in the year to December 2025 compared with the previous twelve months.
The Index of Production for Wales shows a 1.1% increase when compared to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 1.2% over the same period.
Index of Construction
The longer-term trend shows a 16.2% decrease for Wales and a 1.2% increase for the UK in the year to December 2025 compared with the previous twelve months.
The Index of Construction for Wales shows a 1.3% increase when comparing the latest quarter to the previous quarter. UK output decreased by 2.0% over the same period.
Future of this publication
In May 2023 we shared our plans to cease the publication of this release given the ONS release of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data for Wales and the English regions. However, in July 2023 ONS announced that they have paused their quarterly regional GDP publication. A methods review of the quarterly regional GDP data was published by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in March 2025, with ONS confirming that they are working towards reinstating the publication in their associated blog post.
ONS plan to publish a data article containing updated quarterly regional GDP estimates in the summer, which will be the next stage in their plans to fully re-introduce quarterly regional GDP in 2027.
As a result, we are planning to publish one more quarter of STOI data in July 2026. This will be the final output in this series.
