Cabinet meeting: 16 March 2026

• Rt Hon Eluned Morgan MS (Chair)
• Huw Irranca-Davies MS
• Jayne Bryant MS
• Mark Drakeford MS
• Rebecca Evans MS
• Jane Hutt MS
• Julie James MS
• Jeremy Miles MS
• Lynne Neagle MS
• Ken Skates MS
   
• Dawn Bowden MS
• Vikki Howells MS
• Jack Sargeant MS

Apologies

• Sarah Murphy MS

Officials

• Andrew Goodall, Permanent Secretary
• Rachel Garside-Jones, Director Office of the First Minister and Delivery
• Rebecca Dunn, Head of Cabinet Division
• Victoria Jones, Principal Private Secretary First Minister
• Toby Mason, Head of Strategic Communications
• Sinead Gallagher, Deputy Director Cabinet Office
• Luke Young, Special Adviser
• Madeleine Brindley, Special Adviser
• Sarah Dickins, Special Adviser
• Haf Davies, Special Adviser
• Victoria Evans, Special Adviser
• David Hooson, Special Adviser
• Nadila Hussein, Special Adviser
• Kirsty Keenan, Special Adviser
• Jackie Jones, Special Adviser
• Stephen Jones, Special Adviser
• Philippa Marsden, Special Adviser
• Tal Michael, Special Adviser
• Mary Wimbury, Special Adviser
• Christopher W Morgan, Head of Cabinet Secretariat (minutes)
• Damian Roche, Cabinet Secretariat
• Katie Mason, Cabinet Secretariat
• Helena Bird, Permanent Secretary’s office
• Kath Hallett, First Minister’s Office
• Tracey Burke, Director General Climate Change & Rural Affairs
• Sioned Evans, Chief Operating Officer
• Judith Paget, Director General Strategy
• Andrew Slade, Director General Economy, Energy and Transport
• Emma Williams, Director General Education, Culture & Welsh Language
• Phil Elkin, Deputy Director Legal Services
• Alex Slade, Director Mental Health, Primary Care & Early Years
• Tom Nicholls, Chief Economist (item 4)

1.1 Cymeradwyodd y Cabinet gofnodion 9 Mawrth 2026 / Cabinet approved the minutes of 9 March 2026.

Conflict in the Middle East

2.1 The First Minister advised Cabinet that as the conflict in the Middle East was intensifying, there would be an item later in the meeting on the economic impact and cost of living implications.

Devolution of Youth Justice, Probation and Policing

2.2 Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change and Rural Affairs provided Cabinet with an update on the devolution of Youth Justice, Probation and Policing, in advance of making an announcement later that week.

2.3 In December, Cabinet endorsed the approach to ongoing negotiations with the UK Government on Youth Justice and Probation. Following a ministerial meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister on Friday, officials were now working at pace to finalise the wording of an agreement.

2.4 In terms of Youth Justice, agreement had been secured to the transfer of funding for early intervention and remand, with a commitment to explore whether the larger core grant would follow.

2.5 The UK government had also committed to ensuring a clear and substantive role for the Welsh Government in future Youth Justice oversight arrangements.

2.6 As part of the announcement, the government would also publish the headline objectives for a new Memorandum of Understanding on Probation.

3.1 Cabinet noted there were several changes to the Plenary grid. One amendment had not been disposed of during the Stage 3 debate on the Development of Tourism and Regulation of Visitor Accommodation (Wales) Bill, the previous Tuesday. To rectify this, the Government would need to seek a suspension of Standing Orders on Tuesday, immediately after First Minister’s questions, to hold a Report Stage for the Bill later that afternoon.

3.2 The aim was to move directly to Stage 4 of the Bill that day. A revised version of the Plenary grid, with scheduled finishing times, would be shared with private offices once the order of items on the agenda had been finalised.

4.1 The First Minister invited the Chief Economist to provide an update on the latest economic implications of the conflict in the Middle East.

4.2 There was nothing positive to report in the short term due to the conflict, with the Institute of Fiscal Studies reporting it was unambiguously bad news for living standards in the UK and would impact productivity, with the extent of potential further deterioration unknown.

4.3 Initially, the conflict had caused an energy crisis, with oil futures up 45% and gas futures up 67% since 27 February. This would have a societal impact across Wales: with higher business costs, especially energy intensive industries; the rural economy, with increases in fuel and fertiliser; along with the cost of living for families, particularly those reliant on heating oil.

4.4 This was likely to increase inflationary pressures, and lead to either a delay or possibly an increase in interest rates, stifling economic activity and investment. It would also heighten economic uncertainty, with reduced consumption and expenditure, against a weakening labour market.

4.5 The Office for Budget Responsibility’s recent economic forecast, published alongside the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Spring Statement, did not include any economic or fiscal implications of the conflict. However, the OBR indicated on 10 March it expected inflation to be close to 3% by the end of the year, up from the 2% forecast. Should prices stabilise over the next 4 to 5 weeks, the impact would be much less.

4.6 The Resolution Foundation reported that should the elevated energy prices continue, the energy price cap for domestic users could rise by around £500 per year on average. The next decision was expected in May, applicable to energy costs from July. With other inflationary impacts, inflation was estimated to increase between 0.5% and 1.6%. However, the impact would be greater on oil users, lower income families and intensive energy users. Around 340,000 households in Wales were estimated to be in fuel poverty, with 304,000 also reported as vulnerable.

4.7 Pressures on public finances, such as higher inflation and energy linked costs could impact the Welsh Government’s spending plans.

4.8 Cabinet welcomed the update and agreed it was important to consider the economic impact in a Welsh context.

4.9 It was noted the Prime Minister had announced a £53 million support package earlier that day, for households most exposed to rising heating oil prices. This would result in an additional £3.8 million for the Welsh Government in 2026-2027.

4.10 Cabinet agreed all of the funding should be used to help those facing financial hardship due to increased heating costs. Furthermore, as this would not be available until April, the government would look to allocate funds from underspends to ensure people received support as soon as possible. Funding from underspends and from the UK government would be allocated to the Discretionary Assistance Fund (DAF) and the Fuel Bank Foundation (FBF).

4.11 The Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Trefnydd and Chief Whip reported that between 7-8% of Welsh Households currently used heating oil, and there had been discussions with the Competition and Market Authority about taking action to avoid businesses taking financial advantage of the volatile market.

4.12 In terms of the support available for consumers, the DAF would continue to provide off grid fuel support, while the FBF would help those in crisis who needed to pay for fuel in advance and were at risk of disconnection.

4.13 Those who were struggling were encouraged to contact AdviceLink Cymru’s ‘Claim What’s Yours’ helpline to check what financial support was available. In addition, anyone struggling could contact the Warm Homes Nest scheme to seek advice on energy efficiency measures. Safe Warm Hubs provided warm and safe spaces in the community, where advice was also available, and there was also support for those facing food poverty, with the provision of emergency food aid and local food partnerships.

4.14 Furthermore, the low-income disabled band reduction scheme was providing support payments to a defined cohort who were at particular high risk due to higher energy needs. Ofgem had launched a one-year, lower standing charge tariff pilot for eligible consumers, commencing from April. It was noted the Cabinet Secretary would be writing to all Senedd Members to outline what support was available.

4.15 Cabinet noted the update.

Cabinet Secretariat
March 2026