Statistics Wales demography newsletter: June 2026

On 28 April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published 2024-based national population projections for Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland (ONS). This is a full release using the latest available population data including Census 2021 data and new assumptions for fertility, mortality, and migration, providing a range of variant projections. 

We have also published our own National population projections: 2024-based release for Wales.

Main points

• The population of Wales is projected to increase by 1.0% to 3.22 million by mid-2034. In comparison, estimated population growth over the previous decade to mid-2024 was 3.7%.
• The projected growth in the population between mid-2024 and mid-2034 is driven by both cross-border and international migration, with projected total net migration of 143,600 between mid-2024 and mid-2034. It is projected that there will continue to be more deaths than births over the same period, or ‘negative natural change’.
• The number of people in Wales aged 65 years or older is projected to increase by 18.3% to 819,600 between mid-2024 and mid-2034, and to reach over one million by mid-2072.
• Wales’s population is projected to peak by mid-2035, with population decrease projected from mid-2036.
• However, by mid-2049, the population is still projected to be 0.3% higher than in mid-2024, at around 3.20 million.

StatsWales tables for 2024-based national population projections have been published. The previous 2022-based national population projections by age, sex and year tables (StatsWales) are also available.

On 11 May, the OSR published a review of the ONS mid-year population estimates for England and Wales (OSR). The review assesses the extent to which the mid-year estimates continue to meet the standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value of the Code of Practice for Statistics (UK Statistics Authority). 

Following the ONS’s plans to transition to admin-based population estimates and concerns raised during the Census 2021 assessment, OSR conducted a review of the traditional mid-year estimates to assure itself and users of their quality as the continued headline measure. The ONS has since decided not to transition and will instead focus on improving the mid-year estimates.

The review highlights that the mid-year estimates continue to be developed and improved, however, also draws attention to known limitations and ongoing challenges. The OSR set out their overall judgement on their current performance, noting that while the estimates remain valuable, further work is needed to strengthen user confidence by enhancing transparency, communication and the clarity of quality information.

Based on the findings of the review, the OSR has identified a series of requirements which the ONS must meet by the time of its next publication in summer 2026 in order for the statistics to retain accredited official statistics status. Users can refer to the full review (OSR) for more detail on the findings, requirements and next steps.

On 12 May, the ONS published its latest update on population and migration statistics (ONS). This outlines their work on improvements to how they estimate population and migration, providing an update on the ONS’s plans and progress.

On 21 May, the ONS published provisional long-term international migration estimates for the UK (ONS). This covers the period year ending December 2012 to year ending December 2025, with some revisions being made to previous years’ data.

Estimates are only available at a UK level. Please refer to the components of change data published by the ONS as part of the mid-year population estimates release for the latest migration estimates for Wales.

Improved methods for estimating the migration of British nationals and EU+ nationals have been implemented in this release of long-term international migration estimates. This will remove any reliance on the International Passenger Survey and improve the information that the ONS provides. 

The ONS published a blog (ONS) to accompany the release, looking at the current trends and the reason behind the fall in net migration.  There have also been an article published ‘UK emigration explained: what we know about Brits moving abroad (ONS)’.

On 2 April, the ONS published electoral statistics (ONS) on the number of electors as at 1 December 2025. They have been published as data tables only.

This statistical headline does not include information about Senedd and local government electors in Wales for 2025. It includes information about UK parliamentary electors in Wales only. The local government electors data for Wales collected and published by the ONS for the period 2020 to 2023 have not reflected the changes in voting eligibility for Senedd and local government elections since 2020 because the information collected from electoral registration officers does not currently include all 16‑year‑old electors and 15‑year‑old attainers in every constituency. We continue to work with the ONS to resolve this matter so that we can publish corrected statistics for Senedd and local government electors in Wales in future years. See the ONS data tables (ONS) for more information.

We published a headline summarising the data for UK parliamentary electors in Wales.

Main points

• The total number of UK parliamentary electors registered to vote as at 1 December 2025 in Wales was 2,324,400.
• This is an increase of 0.8% compared with 1 December 2023 when these data were last published, when 2,304,800 electors were registered to vote.
• The total number of UK parliamentary electors registered to vote in the UK as a whole increased by 1.9% between 1 December 2023 and 1 December 2025.

On 27 April, the ONS published Census 2031: consultation on content for England and Wales – update (ONS) and the Government Statistical Service (GSS) Ethnicity Harmonised Standard Consultation (GSS). 

A full report on the GSS ethnicity consultation will be published in late summer. Full reports on the Census 2031 topic consultation will follow later in 2026.

For information on Welsh language statistics, please see the Statistics Wales quarterly update.

Telephone: 0300 025 0373

Email: stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099