Changes in the approach to the handling of BTV-8 cases in Wales 2026: integrated impact assessment

Background

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is a notifiable, infectious, non-contagious viral disease transmitted by infected midges (Culicoides species) biting susceptible wild or domestic ruminant animals such as sheep, goats, cattle, and deer, as well as camelids (such as llamas). 

Bluetongue is not zoonotic and therefore poses no risk to human health. Accordingly, food commodities, including meat and milk products, are safe for the consumer and do not pose a risk of spreading the disease to people, or between animals. Exports of these commodities can also continue, subject to meeting the health certification requirements of the importing country.

More than twenty-six different serotypes of BTV have been identified and the ability of each strain to cause disease varies considerably. BTV-3, BTV-8 and BTV-12 have been detected in England since 2023, BTV-3 in Wales since September 2024 and Northern Ireland since late autumn 2026. 

Midges become infected with the virus when they bite an infected animal. Virus transmission via midges typically occurs between April and November when they are more active and temperatures are conducive to BTV replication within the midge (so-called extrinsic incubation period, or EIP). As temperatures warm, midge activity increases and the EIP in BTV-infected midges gets shorter, increasing midge-borne transmission risk. 

Bluetongue virus can also spread to new areas through the movement of infected livestock and through germinal products (semen and ova) sourced from infected animals. 

Although the impacts on susceptible livestock can vary greatly, bluetongue can have a significant impact on livestock health, welfare and productivity – some animals may show no clinical signs or effects whilst others can exhibit clinical signs such as lesions around the nose and mouth or swelling of the hoofs in cattle. 

The impact of bluetongue infection also includes reduced fertility and reproductive performance, calf losses (mainly so-called dummy calves), reduced milk yield and, in the most severe cases, it can cause death in adult animals. 

Issue

Bluetongue virus serotype 3 (BTV-3) was first detected in England in November 2023. Wals confirmed its first case of BTV-3 in September 2025, and during that same month, England confirmed the first case of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8). 

Although Wales remains free from BTV‑8, the presence of the virus in England presents a clear and increasing risk of incursion. The proximity of confirmed cases to Wales increases the likelihood of windborne incursion of infected midges and cross-border spread through animal movements. Experience from BTV‑3 demonstrates that once bluetongue virus is present in Great Britain, spread can occur relatively quickly, particularly during favourable climatic conditions. At the same time, traditional disease control approaches based on movement restrictions and zoning have been shown to impose significant economic costs on the livestock sector and create operational pressures that exceed delivery capacity during widespread outbreaks.

The availability of BTV-8 vaccines from spring 2026 onwards represents a significant change in the policy context, enabling a shift away from reliance on restrictive controls.

Building on government and industry experience of controlling BTV-3, the proposed approach for BTV‑8 differs from the initial response taken to BTV‑3 when that serotype first emerged in Great Britain. This reflects important changes in the evidence base, disease preparedness and available control tools rather than a reduced assessment of disease risk.

When BTV‑3 was first detected, it represented a novel disease threat to Great Britain. There was limited field experience of its behaviour under GB conditions, uncertainty regarding its epidemiological and economic impacts, and no authorised vaccines were available. In that context, a more precautionary approach, including zoning and movement controls, was appropriate to delay spread, gather evidence and protect livestock populations while scientific understanding developed.

Since then, extensive experience has been gained through the management of BTV‑3 outbreaks across Great Britain and Europe. Surveillance, epidemiological investigations and industry experience have improved understanding of bluetongue transmission, impacts and control options. In addition, vaccines against both BTV‑3 and BTV‑8 are now available, providing livestock keepers with an effective tool to reduce disease impacts and increase resilience.

The proposed BTV‑8 policy therefore reflects the current evidence and operating environment. It seeks to balance disease control objectives with the economic, social and operational impacts of restrictions, recognising that vaccination now provides a practical means for industry to manage disease risk while allowing government interventions to be more targeted and proportionate.

Action

Welsh Government is proposing a new policy framework for managing BTV‑8, based on a proportionate, vaccination-led approach. 

The primary objectives of the policy are to:

• delay the incursion of BTV‑8 into Wales, where possible
• slow the spread of disease, should incursion occur
• provide time for farmers to prepare and vaccinate their livestock
• minimise disruption to the livestock sector and rural economy

The approach will:

• avoid the introduction of widespread zoning and routine movement restrictions
• use targeted and proportionate controls, focused on infected premises where necessary
• support and encourage industry-led vaccination as the primary method of disease control
• align with the existing approach to BTV‑3, recognising the growing availability of vaccines and the need for long-term resilience

Over time, the policy will support a transition in responsibility from government-led intervention to industry-led disease management, reflecting both the changing risk profile of vector-borne disease under climate change and the increasing availability and uptake of vaccination. 

The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 – 5 ways of working

Long term

The proposal responds to several key long-term trends, challenges and opportunities affecting animal health and agriculture in Wales.

Climate change

Increasing temperatures are extending the activity and geographical range of vector species (Culicoides midges), making the incursion and persistence of bluetongue more likely over time.

Emerging and re-emerging animal diseases

Globalisation and environmental change are increasing the frequency of exotic disease threats, requiring more flexible and sustainable control approaches.

Economic pressure on agriculture

The livestock sector faces ongoing financial pressures, meaning that costly or disruptive interventions could reduce long-term farm viability.

Public sector capacity constraints

Resource modelling shows that large-scale intervention models are not sustainable, particularly for diseases that may become endemic risks.

The proposal mitigates these challenges by:

• supporting long-term resilience through vaccination: By promoting a vaccination-led approach, the policy addresses ongoing disease risk rather than relying on short-term containment measures
• adapting to climate-driven disease risk: Recognises bluetongue as a recurring risk and adopts a sustainable management approach rather than attempting to prevent incursion entirely
• avoiding economically damaging interventions: Economic evidence shows that restrictive measures generate net losses; the proposal avoids these, supporting long-term sector viability
• ensuring operational sustainability: By avoiding resource-intensive control measures, the policy remains deliverable within existing public sector capacity
• supporting industry transition: The approach encourages industry responsibility for disease management, improving preparedness for future risks

Prevention

The proposal supports prevention by reducing the risk of wider economic, social and environmental harms associated with restrictive disease control measures.

Breaking negative cycles

By avoiding widespread movement restrictions, the policy prevents significant financial losses across the livestock sector, helping maintain farm viability and reducing the risk of rural poverty and associated mental health impacts. Maintaining stable farming systems also supports ongoing land stewardship and avoids disruption that could negatively affect biodiversity.

Addressing underlying causes

The policy addresses the underlying cause of disease impact by promoting vaccination, which reduces susceptibility to infection, alongside targeted controls to manage spread. This represents a shift from reactive controls to long-term disease resilience, recognising bluetongue as a climate-driven risk.

Minimising negative impacts

The approach reduces resource use and environmental impact by avoiding large-scale testing and licensing systems, while maintaining efficient farming practices. It also supports social cohesion by limiting disruption to rural communities and ensuring impacts are targeted and proportionate.

Integration

The proposed BTV‑8 policy contributes across a range of Welsh Government policy agendas by supporting rural resilience, economic stability, climate adaptation and sustainable agriculture, while avoiding disproportionate impacts from restrictive disease control measures.

The policy aligns with key priorities including rural resilience and economic stability. By maintaining livestock movements and avoiding widespread restrictions, the proposal protects farm incomes and supports rural supply chains (markets, processors, hauliers). 

Economic evidence demonstrates that restrictive measures would impose significant net losses across the livestock sector, which would negatively affect rural economies. The policy therefore contributes to a prosperous Wales. 

The proposal indirectly supports mental well-being by reducing financial stress associated with restrictive controls and avoiding widespread disruption across the farming community. Proportionate disease management reduces uncertainty and helps maintain confidence in livestock systems. This supports a healthier Wales. 

Bluetongue is a climate-sensitive disease, with increased risk linked to warmer temperatures and vector activity. The policy supports adaptation to climate-driven disease risks and long-term resilience in agricultural systems. Maintaining productivity avoids inefficiencies that can increase emissions (e.g. reduced yields, additional feeding). This contributes to a resilient Wales and a globally responsible Wales. 

By supporting the viability of livestock farming, the policy sustains rural Welsh-speaking communities and preserves cultural practices linked to agriculture. Avoiding widespread disruption helps maintain community infrastructure and social cohesion. This contributes to a Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. 

The policy avoids large-scale, resource-intensive interventions. APHA modelling shows that restrictive measures would require unsustainable staffing levels. A proportionate approach ensures that public services remain deliverable and resources are used efficiently. This supports a more equal and efficient public service system. 

Alignment with Programme for Government priorities

The proposal directly supports priorities relating to:

• strengthening rural resilience and economies
• supporting sustainable land management and agriculture
• adapting to climate and environmental challenges
• delivering proportionate and efficient public services

This alignment is reflected in the move toward a vaccination-led, industry-supported model, avoidance of disproportionate regulatory burdens, and focus on long-term resilience rather than short-term containment. 

Collaboration with UK and devolved partners

Policy development has involved the devolved administrations, APHA and industry stakeholders. This ensures alignment where appropriate, consistency across borders and minimised disruption to trade. Engagement with industry stakeholders ensures the policy reflects industry needs and practical delivery considerations are addressed. 

APHA resource modelling has been explicitly considered to ensure deliverability and avoid overwhelming public services. The policy reduces need for large-scale licensing systems and intensive enforcement.

Collaboration

Bluetongue policy in Wales has consistently been developed in close collaboration alongside industry partners. This proposal for the handling of BTV-8 cases therefore reflects the ongoing dialogue and feedback between OCVO and industry gathered through stakeholder engagement mechanisms such as exotic disease working groups. Contributions have been provided by key partners such as the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), the Pirbright Institute, the NFU and other veterinary delivery partners. Regular informal stakeholder dialogue has also taken place ensuring that policy remains responsive and aligned with the needs and perspectives of those involved in disease management and industry.

Involvement

People affected by the proposal have been actively involved in its development through established stakeholder engagement structures at both Great Britain (GB) and Wales levels.

At a GB level, engagement has taken place through the Livestock Core Group, which includes representatives from industry bodies across the UK. This forum has provided opportunities to:

• discuss emerging bluetongue risks
• consider potential policy approaches
• share views on the practical and economic implications of different control options

At a Wales level, the proposal has been informed by ongoing engagement through the Exotic Disease Working Group, which includes Welsh industry representatives such as farming unions, veterinary stakeholders and delivery partners. This group has enabled:

• detailed discussion of Wales-specific considerations
• feedback on the proportionality and practicality of proposed measures
• alignment of policy with the needs of the Welsh livestock sector

Stakeholder engagement has highlighted that the key priorities for those affected include:

• minimising economic disruption, particularly avoiding widespread movement restrictions
• maintaining farm viability and cashflow
• ensuring measures are practical and deliverable on farm
• having clear, consistent and timely communication
• access to vaccination and the ability to take preventative action

These priorities are reflected in the design of the policy, which adopts a proportionate, light-touch approach, avoids zoning and large-scale restrictions, supports a vaccination-led strategy, enabling industry to take an active role. 

Stakeholders will continue to play a role in delivery through:

• ongoing engagement via industry groups and working forums
• collaboration with veterinary networks to support vaccination uptake
• dissemination of guidance and best practice within the sector

Impact

This proposal adopts a proportionate, vaccination-led and light-touch framework, avoiding zoning and widespread movement restrictions.

Economic and operational evidence strongly supports this approach:

• economic modelling demonstrates movement restrictions generate net costs. Across all central scenarios, movement control measures result in net economic losses compared to a no-restrictions baseline, with estimated losses typically ranging from £5 million to £29 million, and higher in some scenarios.
• costs of restrictions outweigh disease impacts. Disease impacts (milk loss, mortality, abortions) are insufficient to offset:
  • testing and licensing costs 
  • disruption to livestock movements
  • wider supply chain impacts
• findings are robust across assumptions. Sensitivity analysis shows that even with significantly reduced testing costs (e.g. £30–£100 per movement), restrictions continue to produce net losses of approximately £3 million to £41 million
• avoidance of disproportionate sector-wide disruption. Control measures affect tens of thousands of farms:
  • up to ~51,000 farms under restrictions in some scenarios
  • far beyond those directly infected
• operational feasibility. Strict control measures would require:
  • over 1,000 veterinary and technical staff at peak demand
  • resource levels exceeding APHA capacity
• supports continued trade and industry resilience. The proposed approach: 
  • allows continued livestock movements
  • reduces economic disruption
• supports industry-led disease management. There is clear evidence of vaccination uptake across Wales, with veterinary and keeper-reported data indicating that hundreds of thousands of animals have already been vaccinated against bluetongue. This demonstrates that a vaccination-led approach is both viable and being actively adopted by industry, reducing reliance on more restrictive and economically costly intervention measures

Arguments against / risks

• reduced restriction intensity may allow earlier or wider spread in initial incursion
• reliance on vaccination uptake and farmer behaviour
• uneven impacts across different production systems
• perception of reduced government intervention 

Overall conclusion

Economic and operational evidence demonstrates that restrictive approaches would impose significant net costs and are unlikely to be deliverable at scale. The proposed BTV‑8 approach is therefore proportionate, feasible and economically justified.

The proposed approach also incorporates stakeholder feedback on the challenges to industry arising from BTV-3 control. As a result, the BTV-8 approach reflects the substantially changed circumstances since BTV‑3 first emerged, including improved scientific understanding of bluetongue in Great Britain, increased operational experience, the availability of vaccines, and evidence regarding the costs and effectiveness of large-scale restrictions. The proposal therefore represents an evolution of policy in response to new evidence and experience rather than a reduction in the importance attached to disease control.

Costs and savings

The potential culling of any BTV-8 positive animals will incur statutory compensation costs to the Welsh Government. Farmers will have to take on direct costs if they wish to vaccinate their animals against BTV-8 and will face indirect costs as a result of the restrictions in this proposal if their animals test positive for BTV-8. Counter to this, delaying and preventing the spread of BTV-8 will bring wider economic benefits to farmers in terms of maintaining farm productivity, milk yield and reproduction rates, avoiding the costs incurred that come BTV-8 infected livestock and protecting their profits.

Mechanism

This proposal will be delivered under existing legislative frameworks. 

Footnote 1: Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), Economic analysis of movement restrictions for Bluetongue, unpublished analytical paper, which uses epidemiological modelling to compare the costs and benefits of movement restriction scenarios, finding that under central assumptions such measures result in a net economic cost to industry.

Footnote 2: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) (2024), Economic analysis of movement restrictions for Bluetongue, unpublished analytical paper.

Footnote 3: Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) (2024) Annex 5: APHA resource demand and impacts of a BTV-3 incursion. Unpublished analytical paper.

Footnote 4: Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) (2024) Annex 5: APHA resource demand and impacts of a BTV-3 incursion. Unpublished analytical paper.

Footnote 5: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) (2024), Economic analysis of movement restrictions for Bluetongue, unpublished analytical paper.

8.1 How have people most likely to be affected by the proposal been involved in developing it

People most likely to be affected by the proposal primarily livestock keepers, veterinary professionals and rural communities—have been involved throughout its development via established engagement structures at both Great Britain (GB) and Wales levels.

At GB level, engagement has taken place through the Livestock Core Group, which includes representatives from farming unions, industry bodies and veterinary organisations. This forum has enabled discussion on emerging bluetongue risks, policy options and the practical and economic implications of control measures.

At a Wales level, the proposal has been informed through the Exotic Disease Working Group, which brings together Welsh industry representatives, veterinary stakeholders and delivery partners. This engagement has enabled detailed consideration of Wales-specific issues, including the proportionality, feasibility and economic impact of proposed measures.

Stakeholders with protected characteristics and Welsh speakers are represented within these groups through inclusive industry organisations and have been supported through bilingual communications and engagement. While children are not directly affected by the policy, the wider impact on farming households and communities has been considered.

Key issues raised through engagement included:

• the economic impact of movement restrictions
• the need for practical, deliverable measures
• the importance of access to vaccination

These views have directly shaped the policy, resulting in a proportionate, vaccination-led approach that minimises disruption and supports industry involvement in delivery.

8.2 What are the most significant impacts, positive and negative

The most significant impacts of the proposal arise across the economy, rural communities, public services and long-term resilience, with largely positive outcomes compared to more restrictive alternatives.

Economic impacts 

The most important finding is that restrictive disease control measures—particularly widespread movement restrictions—would result in net economic losses across the livestock sector, typically estimated at £5–£40 million. These costs are driven by testing, licensing and market disruption.

The proposed approach avoids these impacts by:

• maintaining livestock movements where possible
• supporting continued market activity
• enabling farmers to manage risk through vaccination

This delivers a strong contribution to A prosperous and more equal Wales (by reducing disproportionate impacts on low-income farms). 

Rural communities and social impacts

The policy has a positive impact on rural communities.

By avoiding widespread restrictions, it:

• supports farm viability and rural employment
• maintains supply chains and local economic activity
• reduces stress and uncertainty for farming households

Engagement highlighted that minimising disruption and maintaining cashflow were key priorities for stakeholders. These have been directly reflected in the policy design.

This supports a healthier Wales (through reduced stress) and cohesive communities.

Public sector impacts

The policy has a significant positive impact on public sector delivery. Operational modelling shows that restrictive approaches would:

• require over 1,000 staff at peak demand
• exceed APHA capacity
• divert resources from critical functions (e.g. TB control, animal welfare)

The proposed approach avoids these pressures, ensuring delivery within existing capacity and supporting efficient and sustainable public services.

Environmental and resilience impacts

While it does not directly deliver environmental outcomes, it:

• supports sustainable land management practices
• avoids disruption that could affect ecosystems
• contributes to climate adaptation by recognising bluetongue as a long-term, climate-driven risk.

This aligns with a resilient Wales and a globally responsible Wales.

Culture and Welsh language

By supporting rural economic stability, the policy helps sustain Welsh-speaking communities, supports agricultural traditions and cultural identity and ensures services are available bilingually.

This supports a Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. 

Evolution of policy approach

A significant consideration in the development of this proposal has been the experience gained from the emergence and management of BTV‑3. When BTV‑3 first entered Great Britain, government and industry faced a novel disease threat with limited evidence on likely impacts and without access to vaccines. A precautionary approach was therefore adopted.

The policy response proposed for BTV‑8 reflects the range of experience gained by both government and industry as part of the joint effort to control BTV-3. Greater scientific and operational understanding of bluetongue, alongside the availability and uptake of vaccines, allows for a more proportionate and targeted response. While BTV‑8 remains a significant animal health threat and disease impacts can be severe, current evidence supports a greater emphasis on vaccination and industry resilience, reducing reliance on measures that can create economic and operational burdens.

On this basis, the proposal seeks to balance disease control, animal health and welfare, economic sustainability and public sector deliverability, while retaining the ability to review and strengthen measures should the epidemiological situation become more challenging. 

Overall conclusion

The most significant impacts are economic and operational, with strong evidence  the proposed approach avoids substantial costs and is more deliverable than alternatives. Engagement with stakeholders confirms  this approach reflects sector priorities and supports long-term resilience.

8.3 In light of the impacts identified, how will the proposal: 

• maximise contribution to our well-being objectives and the seven well-being goals; and/or,

• avoid, reduce or mitigate any negative impacts

The proposal has been designed to maximise contributions to the well-being goals while minimising potential negative impacts through a proportionate, evidence-based approach.

Adopting a vaccination-led approach enables farmers to actively manage disease risk. Avoiding widespread restrictions maintains farm income, market activity, and supply chains. It avoids resource-intensive interventions that exceed operational capacity ensuring efficient use of public resources. It recognises bluetongue as a climate-driven, recurring risk and promotes long-term resilience rather than short-term containment. It sustains rural communities where Welsh is widely used and ensures all communications and services are bilingual. 

Financial impacts on farmers are mitigated through proportionate controls enabling vaccination as a preventative tool. Restrictions are limited to affected premises and clear guidance, and communication will be provided to reduce uncertainty. 

The Welsh Government will continue stakeholder engagement to refine policy over time, promote vaccine uptake and awareness, and ensure accessible, bilingual communications. 

No significant unmitigated negative impacts have been identified. The chosen approach balances disease control with economic, social and operational considerations, maximising contribution to the well-being goals while minimising harm.

8.4 How will the impact of the proposal be monitored and evaluated as it progresses and when it concludes 

The impact of the proposal will be monitored and evaluated through a combination of epidemiological, economic and operational indicators.

Key measures will include:

Disease surveillance data

• incidence and spread of BTV‑8
• geographic distribution

Vaccination uptake

• number of doses administered
• coverage across species and regions

Economic indicators

• market activity and livestock movements

Operational performance

• APHA resource use
• delivery capacity and response times

Stakeholder feedback

• ongoing engagement with industry groups
• feedback through working groups and forums

Monitoring will be ongoing throughout the active transmission periods, with policy reviewed and adjusted as required based on emerging evidence.

Evaluation will focus on:

• effectiveness in limiting disease spread
• economic impact compared to alternative approaches

Footnote 6: Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) (2024) Annex 5: APHA resource demand and impacts of a BTV-3 incursion. Unpublished analytical paper.