Cultural Capital grants in Wales 2021 to 2026: report (summary)

Alma Economics was commissioned by the Welsh Government to undertake a point-in-time evaluation of the Cultural Capital Grants (CCG) in Wales (2021 to 2026). The aim of this evaluation was to assess the extent to which the capital grants awarded by the Culture Division have met their stated objectives as the Senedd term (2021 to 2026) comes to an end.

The CCG portfolio within the scope of this evaluation included 41 grants, broken down as three major capital projects (Theatr Clwyd, Football Museum of Wales and CELF) as well as a range of smaller investments made through the Transformations Capital Grants Programme and the Collections Management Capital Improvements Programme. Each of these projects was unique, varying significantly in scale, scope, priorities and timelines.

Given the diversity in projects considered, this evaluation primarily adopted a desk-based synthesis of project-level documents and data, drawing on 169 documents provided directly by the Welsh Government. These included Full Business Case (FBC) reports, grant award letters, end-of-project monitoring reports, interim evaluations and internal audit reports.

As an initial step in this research, a logic model for the CCG was developed, drawing on a review of project-level documentation and a workshop held with Welsh Government stakeholders. Following this, information from documentation was systematically extracted, synthesised, and aligned to the themes identified in the updated logic model. Outputs and outcomes were assessed as either:

• Realised: where evidence of emerging benefits existed
• Intended: where projects were still in delivery or early operational phases

The main findings of this research are presented in terms of the progress in implementation of the various projects, alongside their main outputs and outcomes.

Progress in implementation of the Cultural Capital Grants

This evaluation finds that significant capital works have already been undertaken among the CCG projects. Among the 3 major capital projects, the Football Museum of Wales is scheduled to open in 2026, while significant capital works at Theatr Clwyd and the galleries within the CELF dispersed network have already been completed, albeit recently. The reviewed project documentation reveals that 11 out of 31 Transformation Capital Grants Programmes already possess end-of year project reports, indicating the completion of their capital works. All 6 Collections Management Capital Improvements projects within the scope of this evaluation have end-of-project reports available.

Several of these capital works have only been completed recently (2025, for instance). As such, the projects remain in early stages of operational delivery at the point of reporting. This means that many of the longer-term operational activities and subsequent benefits associated with these projects are still too early to assess. To measure these benefits, each of the 3 larger capital projects has planned formal evaluation activities such as Project Implementation Reviews (PIR) and Post Evaluation Reviews (PER). While the smaller grants do not possess similar large-scale evaluations, each of the individual grants produces end-of-project reports to evidence how grants have been used to achieve KPIs.

The evaluation also identified challenges associated with implementing the capital works associated with these projects, which include:

• unexpected issues or additional work required while carrying out capital works, leading to more work or the escalation of cost (this includes unexpected site discoveries, such as the discovery of asbestos at Theatr Clwyd)
• insufficient discovery works at pre-tender stages, leading to delays in carrying out capital works, as in the case of the Football Museum of Wales
• change in contractors and procurement methods during the implementation of capital works, evidenced by the Collections Management Capital Improvements Programme
• tight timescales between the award of funding and project completion, particularly for smaller grant-funded projects within the Collections Management Capital Improvements Programme

Impacts of the Cultural Capital Grants

The evaluation identifies a wide range of intended benefits across a broad spectrum of outputs and outcomes, as evidenced through project-level documentation. Collectively, this suggests that the portfolio is expected to deliver a diverse and substantial set of benefits in line with its overarching aims. While planned benefits and target areas are well documented, given the current stage of delivery, many of these benefits are not yet fully measurable or observable. As projects progress and become fully operational, a clearer picture of realised impacts is expected to emerge.

At this stage, the strength of evidence on emerging benefits is greatest for shorter-term outputs, particularly those relating to capital improvements and enhanced service delivery. There is also some evidence of emerging outcomes, primarily from smaller-scale capital projects that have been completed and for which end-of-project reports are available.

The evaluation logic model sets out the main benefits of the CCG portfolio as a whole that are intended to be achieved over time, spanning outputs, outcomes and longer-term impacts.

Outputs

• Capital improvements.
• Enhanced service delivery.
• Workforce and volunteer capacity.
• Support to sector stakeholders and communities of practice.
• Promotion of the Welsh language and culture.

Outcomes

• Increased public engagement.
• Organisation’s financial performance.
• Local economic contribution.
• Social cohesion and community connection.
• Improved stewardship of cultural and heritage assets.
• Environmental sustainability performance.
• Wellbeing benefits.

Impacts

• Improved access to and participation in culture for people across Wales.
• Make cultural assets more reflective of the diverse communities in Wales.
• Bring culture closer to home.
• Democratises culture.
• Improve connectivity with culture.
• Promote people’s positive health and well-being.
• Supports the delivery of the net zero all Wales plan and the Welsh Government’s digital strategy.
• Regenerates local community assets, provides employment and develops skills and other opportunities.
• Promotes and develops the visitor economy, and the reputation and profile of our culture and heritage in Wales, the UK and internationally.

The evidence reviewed in this evaluation indicates that the CCG investments are successfully delivering capital improvements across a diverse portfolio of large-scale and smaller cultural projects across Wales. Early evidence of emerging outputs and outcomes suggests some projects are on track to deliver their intended long-term benefits over time. For other projects, the early stage of implementation meant that evidence of realised impacts was not available at the point of reporting. We recommend that evaluation activities continue to evidence outcomes and impacts as they materialise. The diverse nature of supported projects also poses ongoing challenges for consistently measuring and aggregating impacts at the wider CCG level. We recommend the Welsh Government consider the following measures to strengthen monitoring and evaluation across current and future iterations of the CCG.

• Develop a core set of monitoring indicators: establish a shared set of core monitoring indicators aligned to common themes (for example, public engagement, financial sustainability) to support wider CCG portfolio-level analysis.
• Adopt a modular monitoring framework: combine core indicators with flexible, project-specific measures to balance comparability with project diversity.
• Strengthen baseline data collection: encourage future projects to perform baseline measurements to better track additionality and impact over time.
• Provide guidance on indicator definitions: improve consistency in how indicators (for example, visitor numbers, digital engagement) are measured and reported.
• Undertake CCG portfolio-level evaluation of impacts: use centrally coordinated approaches to assess impacts such as wellbeing and economic contribution.
• Maintain proportionality in monitoring requirements: ensure expectations remain appropriate to project scale while still generating comparable data across the CCG.

Building on recommendation 1, this evaluation has also developed an initial proposed framework of core indicator families that could be used to support future monitoring and evaluation activity across the CCG portfolio.

Report author: Alma Economics Limited

Views expressed in this report are those of the researchers and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government.

For further information please contact:

Culture Division
Welsh Government
Cathays Park
Cardiff
CF10 3NQ

Email: culture@gov.wales 

Social research number: 88/2026
Digital ISBN: 978-1-80853-019-7