16 to 18 local curricula guidance: Welsh language impact assessment

Developing guidance for Medr on the formation of 16 to 18 local curricula provides Welsh Government with the opportunity to support and encourage the strengthening of Welsh language provision in post-16 education, both as a subject and other subjects through the medium of Welsh, strongly aligning with the Welsh Government’s strategy for the Welsh language, Cymraeg 2050: A million Welsh speakers. This proposal also supports the well-being goal of a “thriving Welsh language” under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

Education is central to achieving the ambition of increasing the number of Welsh speakers and their use of the language. The role of Medr in the formation of 16 to 18 local curricula provides an important opportunity to strengthen Welsh‑medium education, support progression, and promote continued language use beyond compulsory education.

The 16 to 18 local curricula guidance reflects the statutory duties placed on Medr under the Tertiary Education and Research (Wales) Act, including promoting demand for, and participation in, education through the medium of Welsh, and ensuring sufficient provision to meet that demand. As identified in the integrated impact assessment completed for the TER act, there is a clear link between Medr and the aims of the Cymraeg 2050 Strategy in terms of improving the process of planning Welsh-medium provision in post-16 education and training; ensuring that all learners can develop their Welsh Language skills to their full potential and the encouragement of robust linguistic progression from one phase of education and training to the next; and to improve the ways of providing central support for Welsh-medium education and training.

This proposal is expected to have a moderate to significant positive impact on the Welsh language, particularly by increasing access to Welsh‑medium education and strengthening progression pathways for learners.

The guidance promotes:

• increased availability of Welsh‑medium and bilingual provision within local curricula
• improved continuity for learners progressing from Welsh‑medium education at 14 to 16 into post‑16 pathways
• expansion of Welsh‑medium opportunities across both academic and vocational routes
• greater collaboration between providers to expand access to Welsh‑medium provision

By embedding expectations around Welsh‑medium provision within local curricula planning, the proposal is expected to increase participation in education through the medium of Welsh and support learners to continue developing their language skills.

This proposal is expected to have a positive impact on the sustainability of Welsh-speaking communities.

By aiming to enable more learners to continue studying through the medium of Welsh beyond the age of 16, the policy supports the development of Welsh language skills into adulthood. This contributes to the long-term vitality of Welsh-speaking communities by increasing the number of individuals who are able to use Welsh in social, educational and professional contexts.

Strengthening Welsh-medium pathways, including vocational routes, is particularly important in ensuring that learners can remain within Welsh-speaking communities while accessing relevant education and employment opportunities.

The proposal is expected to support an increase in the number and range of Welsh‑medium courses available by:

• promoting linguistic continuity between pre‑16 and post‑16 education
• increasing the number and range of Welsh‑medium courses available
• supporting flexible and collaborative delivery models, including partnerships between schools and FE institutions
• encouraging the use of digital and hybrid provision (such as E‑Sgol) to expand access where local capacity is limited
• supporting the provision of Welsh as an A Level, even when uptake is low

The guidance is clear that Welsh‑medium provision should not be reduced in pursuit of efficiency, and while duplication of provision should generally be avoided, Medr and local curricula planners should not class courses provided separately in English and Welsh as duplication. Following feedback from Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol, the guidance is clear that any learner wanting to continue studying Cymraeg or Core Cymraeg should be supported to do so, and that low uptake should not in itself determine whether provision is made available.

This approach is expected to improve learner choice and ensure that Welsh‑medium learners can access a broad and meaningful curriculum offer through their language of choice.

The proposal is expected to have a positive long-term impact on the availability of services in Welsh.

By increasing the number of learners with secure Welsh language skills, including in vocational and technical pathways, the policy will help support a workforce capable of delivering services through the medium of Welsh. This is particularly relevant for key sectors such as education, health, public services and local government.

While the overall impact of this guidance is expected to be positive, and feedback on our consultation was generally positive with respondents highlighting the positive benefits of the policy, some potential risks were identified by teachers’ unions, schools and colleges, including:

• workforce capacity constraints, particularly a shortage of Welsh-speaking teaching staff in certain subject areas
• variation in the availability of Welsh-medium provision across different geographic areas
• potential challenges in sustaining provision where learner numbers are low
• dependence on effective collaboration between providers to deliver a broad Welsh-medium offer

Funding and workforce constraints were the main risks highlighted though our consultation process, particularly around Welsh language provision. These issues are existing challenges and the guidance has been designed to help address them, rather than create additional barriers to Welsh-medium provision.

There is a risk that supporting any low uptake subject to be taught at a school or college could demonstrate poor value for money, especially when compared to more popular courses. However, this must be balanced against the positives of supporting Welsh-speaking learners and the continued use of Welsh as a community language.

Rurality challenges already exist within post-16 education in Wales, with Estyn thematic reports identifying geographical variation and inequity as key delivery issues. These issues are particularly prevalent with low uptake subjects, such as Welsh language offers, where local provision can be limited. Whilst our guidance is in part, designed to tackle some of these challenges and the purpose of local curriculum offers is to broaden offers made available to learners, success will be dependent on the effective implementation of this guidance. Medr will also need to continue to operate with regard to their statutory Welsh language duties to ensure that meaningful offers are made available to learners.

The 16 to 18 local curricula guidance does not create additional risks with regards to Welsh language education in Wales, but instead, seeks to address how Medr and curriculum planners can mitigate some of these existing issues. The guidance does this through:

• strengthened expectations on collaboration between providers to expand Welsh-medium provision
• use of digital and hybrid delivery models to overcome geographical and capacity constraints
• alignment with Welsh in Education Strategic Plans (WESPs) to support coordinated local planning
• highlighting support available through the Welsh in Education Workforce Plan to help schools build capacity to provide a broader curriculum through the medium of Welsh
• clarifying expectations for Medr to engage with organisations such as Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol, to support the development of Welsh-medium provision

In the fulfilment of their statutory duties, Medr will play a key role in ensuring that the Welsh language is sufficiently supported and reflected in the planning and delivery of local curriculum offers. 

One of the key strengths of this proposal is that Medr will have access to significantly more comprehensive information on Welsh-medium provision than has previously been available. Medr will report this information to the Welsh Government through existing reporting channels.

The impact of the proposal will be monitored through:

• participation rates in Welsh-medium education at post 16 level
• progression rates of Welsh-medium learners into further and higher education, training, and (or) employment
• the availability and range of Welsh-medium courses within local curricula
• feedback from learners and providers

The information reported by Medr will support ongoing evaluation of whether the policy is achieving its intended outcomes and whether additional action is required to address gaps or inequalities in provision.

This proposal could make a significant contribution to the Welsh Government’s ambition to increase the number of Welsh speakers and expand the use of the language.

The intention is that it will help to strengthen Welsh-medium education, support learner progression, and contribute to the sustainability of Welsh-speaking communities. While there are risks relating to delivery and capacity, these have been identified and will be mitigated through collaboration, planning and ongoing monitoring.