Register of business-critical models: January 2025

The 2013 Macpherson Review of the quality assurance of government models classed a model as business critical where:

• the modelling drives essential financial and funding decisions
• the model is essential to the achievement of business plan actions and priorities
• errors could engender serious financial, legal, reputational damages or penalties

Science-based and natural systems model

A combined model using weather, distance source and chemical reactions, local industrial source and transport related modelling to predict ambient pollutant concentrations in future years

Policy simulation and forecasting model

Will be used to assess the relative carbon emission benefits of a range of national policies linked to reducing the need to travel, mode share and vehicle fleet decarbonisation, and forecast transport sub sector emissions (as defined by the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory), informing policy development for Carbon Budget 3 from September 2025 onwards.

Forecasting model

Estimates the take-up and the associated cost of the childcare offer. It can be used to estimate supply and demand of childcare as well as workforce requirements.

Science based and natural systems model

Used for medium- and longer-term projections for COVID-19 infections, hospital admissions, bed occupancy and death, as well as vaccine uptake and total NHS capacity.

Policy simulation model

Informs key policy decisions for Programme for Government policy areas in environment and rural affairs:

• Welsh Government's Future Farming Scheme
• Sustainable Land Management.

Forecasting and planning model

Forecasts the repayment of Help to Buy Wales loans and provides information about the financial performance of the scheme.

Forecasting model

Estimates housing need and demand. This is used to develop national strategic planning policies for housing.

Forecasting model

Forecasts tax revenues, a determinant of the overall size of the Welsh Government budget.

Forecasting model

Forecasts tax revenues, a determinant of the overall size of the Welsh Government budget.

Allocation and distribution model

This model carries out the calculations required to distribute approx. £400m revenue funding for education between the 22 local authorities in Wales.

Allocation and distribution model

This model carries out the calculations required to distribute approx. £130m revenue funding for education between the 22 local authorities in Wales.

Allocation and distribution model

This model carries out the calculations required to distribute over £5.7bn of Aggregate External Finance (revenue funding) between the 22 Principal Authorities in Wales.

Forecasting model

Model used by local authorities to estimate the number of additional housing units required, by tenure, in order to inform strategic housing priorities.

Allocation and distribution model

Used to allocate additional discretionary funding to local health boards.

Allocation and distribution model

Calculates the 'Distributable Amount' for non-domestic rates. This is the amount to be distributed each year to local authorities and Police and Crime Commissioner from the rates collected by local authorities and the Welsh Government. It is a critical element of the local government funding system.

Policy simulation model

This model estimates costs and informs policy decisions following non-domestic rates revaluations, which take place every three years. Costs are calculated for options relating to setting the non-domestic rates multiplier as well as relief schemes such as transitional relief.

Allocation and distribution model

Calculates the distribution of funding (Aggregate External Finance) between the four police forces in Wales on an annual basis. It is agreed with the Home Office.

Forecasting and policy simulation model

Used to forecast travel demand in the region.

Forecasting and policy simulation model

Used to forecast travel demand in the region.

Forecasting and policy simulation model

Used to forecast travel demand in the region.

Forecasting model

Forecasts the cost of tuition fees, grants and loans to set Welsh Government budgets as well as feeding into Medr budget planning, which is a fundamental part of the affordability of the current system.

Forecasting model

Calculates the accounting charge for student loans. It estimates the long-term value of the student loan book and the expected level of repayments and unpaid loans.

Allocation and distribution model

Model for calculating value for money (VfM) grant levels for affordable homes.

Policy simulation model

Provides an indicative statistical trajectory of the feasible options of meeting the Government aim of a million Welsh speakers by 2050.

Forecasting model

Calculates population and household projections which inform the local government resource settlement, NHS resource allocation formula and estimates of additional housing needs.

Forecasting model

Used for short-term projections of hospital admissions due to influenza and respiratory viruses. The model can make projections for different age groups and health boards.

Policy simulation model

Used to inform future carbon budget delivery and plan for transitioning to a Net Zero economy.

Forecasting model

Forecasts tax revenue for the Welsh rates of income tax, a determinant of the overall size of the Welsh Government budget.