16 to 18 local curricula guidance: children's rights impact assessment

The decision being assessed is the impact that guidance to Medr will have on the development of local curricula across Wales.

The guidance sets out the legal duties and wider policy expectations relating to the formation of 16 to 18 local curricula, which transferred from Welsh Ministers to Medr in April 2026 (the Commission for Tertiary Education and Research). As statutory guidance, Medr must have regard to it when exercising its functions under the Learning and Skills Act 2000.

It also sets out a clear vision for 16 to 18 learning, with the aim of ensuring that learners are able to access pathways that reflect their interests and ambitions. Local curricula are expected to provide a broad range of both academic and vocational options, developed collaboratively, to support increased participation and progression.

Under the Tertiary Education and Research Act (TER Act) Medr has a duty to ensure that suitable education provision is provided for young people to access post compulsory education and training and the TER Act CRIA states that Medr will be perfectly placed to ensure that gaps in provision are addressed and that barriers faced by different groups of young people are identified and resolved.

The development of this guidance has therefore been informed not only by the TER Act but also by a wide range of national and international evidence relating to post‑16 education, learner progression and system design. This includes OECD analysis of upper secondary pathways, Estyn reviews of post‑16 provision and partnerships, recommendations from the Wales Centre for Public Policy, and Welsh Government review of vocational qualifications. A more detailed breakdown of this evidence is provided below.

This evidence highlights several key challenges, including the need to improve alignment between pre‑16 and post‑16 learning, reduce fragmentation across the system, strengthen vocational pathways, and address inequalities in participation and outcomes. It also points to the importance of ensuring that learners are supported to make informed choices and have access to a sufficiently broad and coherent curriculum offer.

Learner perspectives were considered through engagement with the National Union of Students (NUS), which represented learner views. The NUS were part of the stakeholder reference group that helped shape the draft guidance and shared consultation opportunities with learners. Feedback received through learner engagement activities highlighted the importance of having access to a broad choice of pathways, clear progression opportunities, appropriate support when making post-16 decisions, and ensuring that qualifications are valued by further and higher education institutions and employers. Learner perspectives were also drawn from wider engagement undertaken through related policy development and reform activity. This included engagement conducted as part of the TER Act development process, evidence gathered through the post-16 Call for Evidence, correspondence received from learners and stakeholders regarding the Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales (AdvSBW), and discussions with Seren learners and alumni. These sources provided additional insight into learners' experiences of progression, post-16 choices, qualification pathways and access to opportunities, and helped inform the development of the guidance and associated policy positions. These themes informed the development of the guidance and its emphasis on broad curriculum offers, learner voice and progression.

OECD (2023): Upper Secondary Pathways and Transitions in Wales - What Shapes Upper Secondary Pathways and Transitions? Insights for Wales (OECD, December 2023)

Key findings:

• Alignment between pre‑16 and post‑16 education is essential to ensure that learning pathways support the four purposes of the Curriculum for Wales.
• The subject‑orientated nature of post‑16 qualifications presents challenges for embedding broader learning and holistic development.
• Improved data collection, including learner awareness of pathways and outcomes at age 18 to 19, could strengthen understanding of transitions and system performance.
• The Welsh system differs from some international models, as no subjects are strictly compulsory at post‑16.
• Established practices, such as resitting mathematics and English or undertaking alternative qualifications, are not always explicitly reflected in policy.
• A Levels in Wales are relatively demanding compared with international benchmarks, which may limit opportunities for some learners to continue studying key subjects such as mathematics and languages.
• Access to Level 3 pathways may be restricted in some settings based on prior attainment (for example, requiring five GCSEs or equivalent).

Wales Centre for Public Policy (2021): Raising the Participation Age to 18 (WCPP, February 2021)

Key findings and recommendations:

• Strengthening post‑16 participation requires a more coherent and consistent national offer for all young people.
• Improved systems for tracking learner destinations (potentially up to age 24) would support better policy-making and evaluation.
• Greater alignment is needed between post‑16 provision and the Curriculum for Wales.
• Gaps in Welsh‑medium provision require targeted action.

Review of Vocational Qualifications (Welsh Government, 2023): Independent Review by Sharron Lusher (September 2023)

Key strategy recommendations:

• Establish a clear and consistent set of purposes and principles to guide vocational education and training policy and delivery.
• Strengthen the promotion and perceived value of vocational education, training and qualifications.

Estyn (2021 and 2022): Post-16 Partnerships (2021) and Review of the 16 to 19 Curriculum in Wales (2022)

Key findings and recommendations:

• Greater clarity and consistency are needed in the legislative and policy framework for post‑16 education.
• Collaboration between schools and further education institutions should be strengthened to ensure broader curriculum offers.
• Local curricula should provide a balanced mix of academic and vocational options, with clear progression pathways.
• More effective use of data is needed to support planning and funding decisions.
• There is a need to reduce the proportion of young people who are NEET.
• The system should support progression across all levels, from entry level through to Level 3 and beyond.

Education Policy Institute (EPI, 2024): Comparing Policies, Participation and Inequalities across UK Post‑16 Systems

Key findings:

• Wales may require a clearer long-term vision and stable policy framework for post‑16 education and training.
• There is a need for a stronger focus on inequalities in post‑16 outcomes.
• Better quality and more comparable data are needed to support policy decisions.
• Improving participation and outcomes in post‑16 education requires urgent and sustained policy attention.

Additional evidence

Young People and Work: Alan Milburn (2026, interim report); Lost in Transition: Resolution Foundation (April 2026)

Key themes:

• Rising levels of disengagement among some groups of young people.
• The interaction between socio-economic disadvantage, educational attainment and labour market outcomes.
• Increasing importance of supporting transitions into employment through clearer pathways and better guidance.

GCSE resit result data in post-16 educational settings combined with anecdotal discussions with headteachers of schools with sixth forms and FEI principals

Key themes:

• Learners who have not passed GCSE English or Cymraeg and (or) Mathematics at 16, may struggle to pass if put forward for the November series of resits as they enter post-16 education. Being put forward for exams that they will struggle to pass with varying levels of support may lead to wellbeing issues and learner disengagement.
• In 2024 the pass rate for 17 year olds resitting English Language, Mathematics, Mathematics: Numeracy and first language Welsh was only 36.5% and for 18 year olds this dropped further to 28.3%. In 2025 pass rates were 37.3% for 17 year olds and 30.9% for 18 year olds.

The guidance is expected to have a direct impact on learners by influencing how 16 to 18 local curricula are formed and, in turn, the range, accessibility and structure of post-16 education pathways available to them.

Through its duty to form local curricula, Medr will work with local authorities, schools and further education institutions to develop curriculum offers that reflect learner demand, support progression and provide access to a broad range of academic and vocational pathways. Increased choice through broader curriculum offers may lead to improved participation and engagement for post-16 learners. The guidance is intended to support more informed decision-making at age 16 and strengthen progression routes into further and higher education, training, and (or) employment, helping learners to achieve their full potential.

Overall, the policy is expected to have a moderate to significant positive impact on children's rights, particularly in relation to access to education, participation, development and learner voice.

Evidence and consultation responses have, however, highlighted a number of existing challenges within the post-16 system that can disproportionately affect some groups of learners, including those living in rural areas, from disadvantaged backgrounds, with additional learning needs, or attending providers with more limited provision. These challenges include transport and accessibility barriers, workforce capacity constraints and difficulties in sustaining a broad curriculum offer in all locations.

These issues are not created by the guidance itself. Rather, they are existing factors that have informed its development. The guidance seeks to support Medr and local curriculum planners to take account of these challenges when forming local curricula, including through collaboration, consideration of accessibility and learner demand, and planning for a broad range of progression opportunities. While the guidance is expected to contribute positively in these areas, it will not remove all existing barriers and the quality of implementation by Medr and curriculum planners will remain an important factor in determining outcomes for learners.

Direct engagement with children and young people was unfortunately limited during the development of this guidance, despite multiple attempts to engage with this group being made. Officials met with the NUS on a number of occasions, and they were a key member of our stakeholder working group, representing learner views in these discussions. The NUS also arranged for us to deliver an online consultation session with college students across Wales, and this was advertised to all union members. Unfortunately, NUS made the decision to withdraw this session due to low interest.

In addition to engagement through NUS, we drew on learner engagement undertaken through related policy development activity, including the TER Act, the Call for Evidence on post-16 education and training, correspondence relating to the AdvSBW, and engagement with Seren learners and alumni.

The guidance is intended to support improvements in the range, accessibility and structure of post-16 pathways available to learners. As highlighted in section 3 of the guidance, Medr will be expected to form 16 to 18 local curricula that are informed by learner voice, facilitate progression from pre-16 qualifications, consider the needs of economy and local labour market intelligence and increase Welsh-medium opportunities.

Our proposal does not create additional or worsen any existing negative impacts for children and young people. However, there are existing risks and issues that will need to be considered when forming local curriculum offers. Whilst it is still the intention of our proposal that offers will be broadened for all learners, those in rural areas, from disadvantaged backgrounds or who attend smaller providers may still be unable to meaningfully access offers. Effective implementation of policy will be key in ensuring positive outcomes for all learners in Wales. 

Overall, the proposal enhances these rights by improving access to broad curricula, supporting progression, and promoting learner participation.

A summary of consultation responses and the impacts on children’s rights will be provided to Ministers to inform decision-making, including how the guidance supports improved outcomes for young people and addresses identified risks.

Learners will be informed of the outcomes of the policy through publication of the guidance and through communication by providers and representative bodies.

The impact on children’s rights will be monitored through Medr’s oversight of local curriculum delivery, including learner participation, progression and feedback from learners. Medr will also provide Welsh Government with updates at partnership meetings and through periodic reporting.

This will enable ongoing assessment of whether the policy is delivering intended outcomes and whether any unintended impacts emerge. It will also support continuous improvement as the system develops.

No immediate revisions have been identified. However, consultation feedback has informed updates to the guidance and will also be used to shape the development of Medr’s operational guidance for local curriculum planners.