Bovine TB Technical Advisory Group for Wales: 16 April 2026

Glyn Hewinson: Chair
Dai Grove-White
Gareth Edwards 
Gareth Enticott
Gwenllian Rees
Ifan Lloyd 
Keith Cutler 
Robert Smith
Sarah Tomlinson 
Sarah Woollatt 
Richard Irvine
Secretariat 

Bovine TB Eradication Programme Board Chair
Representative from Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)
Representative from Pembrokeshire Project
Representative from ibTB (information bovine TB)
Guest speaker on machine learning and whole-genome sequencing 
Welsh Government officials

The Deputy Chair and Chief Veterinary Officer (CVO) welcomed members and attendees to the meeting. The Deputy Chair emphasised the theme of the meeting was "keep it out". 

The CVO highlighted the importance of expert input, collaboration, and upcoming political changes that may affect TB policy.

The Bovine TB Programme Board Chair provided an update on the programme board’s activities, including the publication of a position paper on TB eradication, an ongoing advice paper on wildlife-related TB issues which will be based on scientific evidence from TAG in advance for a newly appointed Government, and a focus on improving communication among farmers, vets, APHA, and Welsh Government.

Members were asked to declare any conflicts of interest they had with the topics to be discussed. No additional conflicts of interest were declared.

The Pembrokeshire Project case study presentation showed how farmer–vet collaboration, supported by delivery board and academic partners, used risk-based slaughter of cattle, enhanced biosecurity, and data-led decision-making to manage TB in herds taking part.

The project highlighted high levels of recurrent TB breakdowns in Pembrokeshire, stressing the need to address residual infection and risk factors such as skin test sensitivity and Inconclusive Reactors (IRs).

Risk-rate analysis, including dam–daughter links and infection patterns, was used to identify and remove high-risk animals, on a 9–12-month timeline determined by the cattle keeper, enabling more targeted and sustainable herd management.

Practical biosecurity actions such as closing the herd, disinfection points, carcass removal controls, preventing badger access, and improved calving/colostrum management reduced biosecurity risk and delivered benefits including, lower antimicrobial use and improved herd health with fewer calf losses.

The Deputy Chair thanked the Pembrokeshire Project representatives for their time and contribution to the discussion.

The guest speaker presented advancements in bovine TB diagnostics and epidemiology. The presentation covered two main parts: the application of machine learning to improve TB skin test interpretations at the herd level, and the integration of Whole Genome Sequencing with epidemiological data to understand transmission pathways. The presentation proposed that:

Machine learning can refine herd-level TB risk assessment beyond current “risk factor” skin test interpretation, helping either detect more infected herds or reduce unnecessary restrictions.

Model performance can be improved by inputting cattle and badger data from Wales and would need periodic revalidation as epidemiology changes; there is interest in applying it for both official decisions and herd management/biosecure trading.

• combining Whole Genome Sequencing with epidemiological evidence e.g. timing of positives, animal movements, and geographic proximity produces clearer, more reliable transmission links than using either data source alone

The Deputy Chair thanked the guest speaker for their time and contribution to the discussion.

The Deputy Chair welcomed the ibTB representative to the group. The representative gave a presentation to the group that explained ibTB as a web tool for bovine TB information, covering what it does today, the underlying data flows, and the planned rebuild.

The group discussed upcoming enhancements to ibTB such as hotspots and risk-area boundaries. The constraints and sensitivities around adding additional datasets, and the longer-term shift to a modernised platform were also discussed and what that might mean for independence and usability.

The Deputy Chair thanked the representative for their presentation and for their insight into the topic.

The APHA representative delivered a presentation and summary on incidence/prevalence, with a breakdown in data for surveillance testing in Wales. 

The APHA representative also summarised the cattle movements 2014-2024 within Wales, the network analysis of holdings, persistent TB breakdowns, engagement and testing policy changes. There was also a focus on recurrence patterns, specified spatial units and IR risk. 

The points raised during this session were the following:

• changing test sensitivity/specificity materially changes measured incidence/prevalence; policy changes can drive apparent trends
• discussion raised whether holdings are weighted equally; movements to slaughter excluded; AFUs likely included but small and unlikely to skew overall patterns
• it was noted that persistent breakdowns are primarily associated with larger dairy herds
• discussion considered the appropriate intervention and ownership (government-led removal vs keeper-managed proactive culling), acknowledging high potential impact if blanket approaches are taken

The Deputy Chair thanked the APHA representative and all those that contributed to the discussion for their involvement.

The Deputy Chair opened the floor to members to further discuss all the agenda items that had been raised during in the day. 

The group acknowledged that the Pembrokeshire project, nearing completion, serves as a proof of concept demonstrating how motivated farmers, vets, and advisors can collaborate to increase engagement and action against TB.

The group discussed whether the risk rate tool used within from the Pembrokeshire Project should be considered a diagnostic test requiring formal validation or a management tool to aid farmers’ decisions.

The group considered how to scale up successful elements of the Pembrokeshire and North Wales projects. Suggestions included facilitating collaborative groups, supporting vets and farmers with training and data access, and encouraging industry ownership of non-statutory TB control tools.

It was raised that a structured evaluation of the Pembrokeshire and North Wales Projects should take place. The evaluation should focus on: 

• behaviour changes and engagement
• farmer–vet collaboration
• use of data in decision making
• messaging clarity about what the projects can and cannot demonstrate

The Deputy Chair thanked all members for their input into the discussions that took place. 

The Deputy Chair thanked all speakers and those that contributed for their input to the day.

Any other business concluded to discussions for the next Royal Welsh Agricultural Show taking place in July 2026. Discussions regarding further arrangements will take place offline with both Chairs of the TAG and Bovine TB Programme Board. 

Thursday 17^th September 2026