Budget Improvement and Impact Advisory Group meeting: 16 September 2024

• Nigel Carter (NC) - Welsh Government – Budget Improvement Lead
• Rhiannon Hardiman (RH) - Office of Future Generations Wales
• Marie Brousseau-Navarro (MB-N) - Office of Future Generations Wales
• Ceri Cryer (CC) - Age Cymru
• Jessica Laimann (JL) - Women's Equality Network (WEN) Wales
• Annie Smith (AS) – RSPB
• Shelia Hendrickson-Brown – C3SC
• Davinia Green – Stonewall Cymru
• Natalie Zhivkova (NZ) – WCVA
• Rhianydd Williams (RW) – TUC
• Chris Buchan (CB) – WG Head of Third Sector Policy & Support
• Catherine Ashcroft (CA) – WG Spending Review Delivery Lead
• Vivienne Lewis (VL) – WG Spending Review Thematic Delivery Lead
• Anton Orzel (AO) – WG Head of Budget Policy
• Karen Stothard (KS) – WG Head of Environmental Governance Policy and International Biodiversity

Apologies

• Ruth Coombs – EHRC Wales
• Wayne Vincent (WV) – EHRC Wales
• Janine Downing (JD) - WCVA
• Ellie Brodie (EB) - WG Head of Equality Evidence Unit
• Gethin Rhys (GR) - Cytun (Churches together in Wales), representing the Inter-faith Council for Wales as TSPC lead for Religion
• Hannah Griffiths (HG) - Wales Women’s Budget Group
• Sean O’Neill (SO) - Children in Wales
• Chriss O’Connell (CO’C) – WG Head of Budget Improvement Team

Secretariat

• Vanessa Crew - Budget & Government Business Division, Welsh Treasury

1.1 NC welcomed members to the meeting of the Budget Improvement Impact Advisory Group (BIIAG) and offered apologies from members who could not attend. He explained that CO’C was unwell and reminded members that Matt Wellington had left Welsh Treasury and taken up a new post in the Equality and Human Rights Division.

1.2 NC mentioned William Riley had left RSPB and BIIAG and noted his gratitude to William for his time on BIIAG and input to the prevention sub-group.

1.3 NC confirmed that the minutes from the 22 March and 19 June 2024 meetings had been circulated to Members and as no amendments had been received, asked members if they were content to agree them as an accurate record. No objections were raised so both sets of minutes were agreed.

1.4 NC referred to the action points from the previous meeting and confirmed the prevention sub-group met on 17 July but the 9 September meeting was postponed and will be rescheduled. He asked members to let him / CO’C know if they’d like to join the SIIA review sub-group or the prevention sub-group and reminded members that they could still provide Ellie Brodie with additional data to be collected across Welsh Government to help track outcomes / share evidence, or data for consideration as part of the budget process: e-mail equalityevidenceunit@gov.wales.

1.5 NC explained that he would be providing updates on the SIIA Review, prevention sub-group and gender budgeting and that CA / VL will provide an update on the Welsh Spending Review at the meeting.

2.1. NC informed members that following the Cabinet reshuffle, Mark Drakeford MS, has been appointed as the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Welsh Language (CSFWL).

2.2 Whilst this year’s financial settlement is unknown, the UK government has been setting the scene for what is likely to be another challenging Autumn Budget.

2.3. The first Draft Budget commission has been issued to Welsh Government Departments with returns due on 18 September. The 2025-2026 Draft Budget will be published on 10 December 2024.

Strategic Integrated Impact Assessment (SIIA) Review update

3.1 NC confirmed the review of the SIIA is progressing and that a ‘SIIA Background and Questionnaire’ has now been issued to international finance colleagues and some external groups with follow-up discussions scheduled during September and October.

3.2. A further meeting is due to take place with legal services to explore case law in relation to the Public Sector Equality Duty.

Prevention subgroup update

3.3 NC explained the prevention subgroup met on 17 July and received a presentation on the purpose and use of Biodiversity Toolkit developed by Karen Stothard’s team in the Climate Change Department.

3.4 The toolkit is only a starting point to help the group consider ideas which might influence the budget process and it would be up to the sub-group, in discussion with the main BIIAG group, to decide how we might move forward with potential ideas to use the toolkit.

3.5 The sub-group were reminded that the original plan had been for the group to look to the toolkit as a potential mechanism to deliver the prevention actions, as detailed in the Budget Improvement Plan (BIP). KS agreed it would be helpful to mainstream biodiversity across the BIP.

3.6 The sub-group said it would be helpful to know more about the budget process to help identify where and when the group might best seek identify and apply change and were advised C’OC and NC were in the process of drafting a budget timeline graphic to help. NC confirmed the budget timeline graphic has since been issued to the sub-group prior to the next meeting.

3.7 Unfortunately, the 9 September sub-group meeting was postponed with a new date to be identified.

Action

NC to issue rescheduled meeting invitation to sub-group members.

4.1 NC said he had attended the Four Nations Women’s Gender Budgeting Conference on 5 and 6 September and it was pleasing to hear Wales was discussed positively and noted as doing well in comparison to some of the other nations.

4.2 SH-B said it was good to hear Wales is looked at favourably compared to other nations but was interested in learning where they felt we were doing when compared to others. NC mentioned:

• Wales has BIIAG but some nations do not have similar Budget engagement forums
• Gender Equality Review which has led to a dedicated member of staff in Welsh Treasury working on gender budgeting and in turn has allowed for re-engagement with the OECD’s Gender Budgeting Network to build relationships and share / learn good practice in this space
• Welsh Government (WG) has undertaken gender budget pilot schemes
• Good progress being made over the past year with gender budgeting resource information being made available to WG staff and gender budgeting questions developed in consultation with the Wales Women’s Budget Group with the aim of including them in the Equality and Human Rights Impact Assessment (EqHRIA) which is currently being reviewed
• Wales Women’s Budget group have provided a technical briefing to WG Scrutiny Committees

4.3 Plans to engage with the Cabinet Secretary for Finance on gender budgeting are under review, given the recent change in Minister.

4.4 Following user feedback on the revised EqHRIA, the gender budgeting questions previously advised as being included have been removed as part of a wider simplification review. We are in discussion with the team responsible for the new EqHRIA to press for the questions to be reinstated after the simplification review has been completed. JL asked if it was just the gender budgeting questions being removed but NC confirmed this was not the case, explaining that the whole EqHRIA is being reviewed with a view to making it more user friendly.

5.1. NC introduced Catherine Ashcroft (CA) Spending Review Delivery Lead and Vivienne Lewis (VL) Spending Review Thematic Lead and thanked them for agreeing to provide and update on the Welsh Spending Review (WSR).

5.2. CA talked through a presentation providing background and progress to date, including:

What is the WSR?

• A new approach - longer-term fiscal planning for Wales, which extends beyond the budget and multi-year settlements.
• Recognise challenges and opportunities, reflecting current WG priorities in a broader, longer-term way.
• Focus on outcomes with a cross-government approach.
• Looking at all fiscal levers, e.g. revenue raising, tax, etc, with a longer-term perspective to consider all these options, which will be evidence based and policy led.

Why the new approach?

• The approach has been planned for some time.
• Challenges and experiences over recent years as well as the impact upon the WG’s budget due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, cost of living and inflationary increases a huge factor.
• Cabinet Secretaries recognised the need to change and take longer term perspective.

Progress to date

• WSR planning work has been running for 6 months.
• WSR team has started to engage on this work since the oral statement, on the approach, in June 2024.
• A Programme Board will support and challenge the work prior to going to Cabinet and a Strategy & Engagement Group is in place to inform on the WSR work.

How will it be delivered?

• A programme of work which will be delivered in a period spanning 18-24 months.
• Thematic Working Groups will be established and will produce evidence-based options.
• Stakeholder engagement is important and plans for this are in development.
• All proposals will have strategic alignment with WG policies/ strategies.

5.3 Viv Lewis provided a further update.

5.4 The new UK government is taking a different approach to future UK Spending Reviews in recognition that public services need more certainty via two year rolling programmes.

5.5 The UK Spending Review concludes in Spring 2025 and will provide a multi annual settlement which will provide more certainty for the WG. The UK Spending Review provides the Welsh Government block grant, which is only one part of the WSR picture with other fiscal levers available to support.

5.6 The Welsh Spending Review is not a replacement for the Welsh Government budget process. It is an opportunity to consider the current challenges through a longer-term preventative lens. It will provide more certainty and direction to Ministers around the impacts of short-term decision making against the longer-term challenges.

5.7 The WSR work will not directly inform the 2025-2026 Draft Budget, but feed into future budgets.

5.8 VL set out the WSR key themes, the likely areas of priority for this work and how the cross-cutting challenges of tackling climate change and the nature emergency, reducing poverty, progressing Cymraeg 2050 and transforming public services using advances in digital technology, will be embedded.

5.9 CA explained that BIIAG would have an opportunity to input to and influence the work of this programme, for example by advising on specific issues brought to the group for Members’ advice and expertise. CA asked for feedback on how the BIIAG could support the WSR programme.

5.10 MB-N asked if the UK Spending Review linked to the Barnett formula? CA and VL suggested inviting a member of Welsh Treasury Inter-Governmental Team to attend BIIAG to speak to stakeholders about the UK Spending Review.

5.11 RH was pleased to hear about the preventative focus whilst looking toward the future. RH mentioned that Welsh Government had published its principles for investment in climate and nature emergency in Wales and queried if the WSR is connect to this. VL explained that this would fall under the cross-cutting work where WG climate change team members would be helping to shape work.

5.12 NZ asked how the WSR would be engaging with the third sector. CA said the team are thinking about the best ways to engage and are keen to tap into existing groups and hope to consider more innovative engagement at the appropriate time. NZ suggested WSR team are clear about the work areas they were seeking engagement with, which would help existing groups where they best could focus their support. NC suggested that CA / VL could provide their engagement request and he could forward to BIIAG members at the appropriate time.

Action

CA/VL to provide NC with engagement information for circulation to BIIAG members.

5.13 SH-B suggested the Third Sector Partnership Council might be helpful in involving all parts of the sector as they’re already working in that space. SH-B also suggested the WSR review the mechanisms of short-term funding to the third sector and considering prevention. VL said that whilst the WSR is at an early stage the thematic groups would be looking at delivery models and best practice and input, experience and expertise from BIIAG members and other stakeholders will be key to these discussions and suggested Members send evidence to the WSR mailbox or NC to forward.

5.14 MN-B was really pleased to hear the WSR will be looking at longer-term preventative budgeting and suggested one of the biggest problems was the one-year annual funding provided over several years which creates a number of problems including staffing and lack of forward planning for preventative measures.

5.15 SH-B and VL had a discussion around preventative spending and referred to NHS funding, preventative measures and the potential for more social prescribing, which SH-B indicated was an area the third sector can help deliver well. SH-B also mentioned the need to look at outcomes not outputs and the need to look at where initiatives are making the most difference. SH-B suggested it was easier for the WSR to ask members / third sector groups directly for information on the areas they wanted to explore.

5.16 MB-N referred to the work the Future Generations Office has undertaken with the WG in agreeing a definition of prevention which needs to form part of the WSR work.

5.17 NC thanked CA and VL for providing an update on the WSR work.

Actions

WSR to liaise with NC and BIIAG for information requests.

WSR to share Thematic group work timelines when agreed.

Members to provide evidence to WSR team via welshspendingreview@gov.wales

NC to invite representatives from Welsh Treasury Inter-Governmental Relations Team to attend next BIIAG meeting to discuss UK Spending Review.

6.1 NC had circulated the BTG to members prior to the meeting in response to members’ previous requests for information about the budget timeline and opportunities to consider influencing the budget discussions. He explained this was high-level overview and the timings shown on the BTG can be subject to change each year.

6.2 SH-B asked if more detail could be provided behind each of the stages shown in the BTG to help better identify opportunities where members might be able to engage and influence the budget process. SH-B also asked whether a timeline for BIIAG should be included in the BTG as points in time where BIIAG meetings can be used during the budget phases to improve discussions towards making the kinds of influence and change they’d like to see. NC thanked Sheila and said that the quarterly BIIAG meetings provide an opportunity for discussing budget improvements and that the external engagement phase of the budget process is when ministers meet with a range of external stakeholders including BIIAG members, third sector and local authorities, providing an opportunity to influence budgetary discussions. NC agreed to take her request for more detailed information away for further consideration.

Action

Budget Improvement Team to consider including more information to support the BTG stages.

6.3. NZ referred to the individual Cabinet Secretaries’ written evidence to Scrutiny Committees being published after 10 December but not specific date was shown and queried if this could be issued with the Draft Budget on 10 December as it would be helpful for it to be issued at the same time. NC explained written evidence was usually issued a few days after the Draft Budget but not on the same day but would explore this possibility.

Action

NC to query whether Cabinet Secretaries’ written evidence to Scrutiny Committees can be issued on same day as Draft Budget.

7.1 NC reminded Members that at the last meeting, they were asked to provide their ideas for future BIIAG discussions relating to tax and budget process changes. NC has received a small number of topics, which he will circulate and asked Members to consider providing additional areas for discussion which could be considered for 2025 BIIAG meetings.

7.2 SH-B suggested mutual benefit from this group. SH-B indicated the need for the group to have a clear understanding of the changes we are trying to bring about within the system and an understanding of what good looks like in terms of being able to influence the process; identifying opportunities to influence the process or potential barriers to achieving change. NC suggested this discussion might stem from the topics for discussion that members have been asked to provide and acknowledged the benefits of identifying clear goals, barriers and realistic timelines for potential changes, whilst noting some of these might fall into the scope of the WSR work.

7.3 NC brought the discussion to a close, thanked members for their contribution in what had been a valuable discussion and reminded members to get in contact if they wanted to discuss any of the areas covered and not to wait until the next meeting, scheduled for the 11 November.

Action

Members to review ideas for discussion received to-date and provide additional topics to be considered for 2025 BIIAG meetings.

The final meeting for 2024 is scheduled for Monday 11 November 1:30 – 3:00pm.

As we have stated several times this conversation does not have to stop when this meeting ends, if you have ideas or thoughts following these discussions and would like to talk about things in further detail please get in touch with the team: bgb.policyanddelivery@gov.wales

Members were invited to share their views on what they would like in terms of future meetings e.g. to consider how BIIAG is working, anything we should consider changing or adding etc. and asked for suggestions to be sent to the mailbox. (Note the new mailbox address is bgb.policyanddelivery@gov.wales)

Actions

NC to issue dates for 2025 BIIAG meetings.

Invite Kathryn Thomas to BIIAG to explain IIA process.