Global biodiversity framework target prioritisation: methodology and results summary

In 2021, Wales – through the UK – committed to the 23 targets and the four Goals of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). This reflects a global ambition to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, and domestic ambitions to achieve ‘A Resilient Wales’ under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. In 2021, we committed to implementing legally binding targets to protect and restore biodiversity in our Programme for Government. 

The Environment (Principles, Governance and Biodiversity Targets) (Wales) Bill (‘the Bill’) will introduce a target-setting framework to enable Wales to set statutory biodiversity targets to drive delivery of some components of the GBF. 

We recognise that the 23 GBF targets are a system that addresses many drivers of loss, and that all are important to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. However, it is not possible to produce a target in the Regulations for each target area under the GBF due to timelines and resource-availability, so we need a short list to pursue as statutory targets.

To that end, officials designed a prioritisation methodology to provide a ranked list of GBF targets, helping us to identify which targets to include in the first ‘tranche’ of the Regulations. 

Internal long-listing

Ecosystems and the drivers of biodiversity loss are inherently complex systems and typically interact with social and economic systems in unpredictable ways (Dasgupta, 2021). We are committed to exploring how to take account of this complexity. 

Moreover, each Welsh Government administration is required to set objectives to contribute to the Goals under Section 3 of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. Targets set under the Bill could potentially contribute to multiple objectives, thus aiding Welsh Ministers in complying with their obligations.

To achieve a systems-thinking approach, we identified four areas by which we would categorise targets. These are as follows:

• resilient and regenerative ecosystems
• safeguarded natural resources
• well-being of people and communities
• regenerative economy and culture

These four categories can be mapped onto the Well-being goals and GBF goals.

Allocating these targets to one of each of the four categories allows us to recognise biodiversity – and drivers of its loss – as a system, ensuring that targets acknowledge the breadth of action that is required and the interrelatedness of biodiversity with wider outcomes.

First, each of the GBF 23 targets were allocated to one of the four categories.

Targets were removed where there was no reporting at a Wales-level and no responsibility for policy in Welsh Government. The targets thus removed were:

• target 15: businesses assess, disclose and reduce biodiversity-related risks and negative impacts
• target 22: ensure participation in decision-making and access to justice and information related to biodiversity for all

Next, we developed criteria to enable ranking of targets within their category. Two criteria that were not possible to assess, due to limited data, were ‘desirability’ to the public, and ‘value for money’.

• interdependency: a network analysis was conducted using the GBF links between targets (see Section C of each target) to produce a ranking
• measurability: a red-amber-green assessment of existing indicators was applied to each GBF target. our biodiversity teams were asked whether they agreed with those assessments
• feasibility (consideration of economic, social, and environmental factors that may hamper or enable delivery against certain targets): our biodiversity teams were asked to rank within each category for feasibility.
• viability (consideration of our existing resources and ability to deliver against any particular target): our biodiversity teams were asked to rank within each category for viability
• importance to tackling biodiversity loss: our biodiversity teams were asked to rank within each category for importance. This criterion was also used in the external process. Our biodiversity teams were then asked to provide their assessment of targets in an online form. They were asked to: (1) identify whether they agreed with the allocation of targets to the four categories; (2) identify whether they agreed with the red-amber-green measurability assessment of each target; and (3) rank targets within each of the four categories according to their assessment of viability, feasibility, and importance

The methodology relies on subjective criteria, with a degree of arbitrariness in the approach taken (Game et al., 2013). However, there are limited natural scales available to make a non-arbitrary assessment of the GBF targets. 

Moreover, it is crucial to note that the targets in the GBF are dynamic, and prioritising one target over another for target setting at this stage does not mean that the ‘deprioritised’ target is unimportant. For example, there may be targets that are more appropriate for a policy response than a statutory target, or we may not yet be able to set a statutory target.

These limitations highlight the need to work closely with stakeholders to understand wider priorities across sectors working in this space.

External engagement

In line with the five ways of working under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and the SMNR principle to engage in collaboration and co-operation, it is crucial to understand the views of interested stakeholders and experts. The intention was that we would test the robustness of the conclusions from the internal process, as well as understand how and why priorities might differ.

Officials delivered workshops with eight expert and/or stakeholder groups which engaged 76 organisations. Of these workshops, six were delivered to formal groups, and a further two identified a range of stakeholders in specific sectors.

Summary of workshops delivered by Welsh Government officials

• Emerging Threats to Freshwater Expert Group: Tuesday 5 November 2024
• Pollinators Taskforce: Tuesday 19 November 2024
• Section 6 Biodiversity Working Group: Thursday 21 November 2024
• Local Nature Partnerships Cymru: Wednesday 4 December 2024
• Marine Biodiversity Expert Group:  Monday 13 January 2025 (follow-up on Friday 24 January 2025)
• Forestry stakeholders: Wednesday 15 January 2025
• Natural Resources Wales: Thursday 23 January 2025
• Land management and agriculture stakeholders (included some forestry stakeholders): Thursday 6 February 2025 (follow-up on Friday 7 February 2025) 

During these workshops, we presented an overview of the Bill and of the prioritisation methodology, highlighting that the results from this workshop would be used to assist with the decision-making process about which targets to prioritise.

Workshop participants were asked: ‘In the context of setting targets, which GBF target do you consider the most important to tackle biodiversity loss in Wales?’ Officials noted that the wording of the GBF target was the starting point for further development, rather than a commitment to the specific area of focus, level, or timeline. They were permitted to give multiple responses if they felt that they were unable to choose just one.

Wales Environment Link (WEL) conducted this exercise with their members on our behalf, asking their members which GBF targets did they consider the most important, providing a written submission. We also received a further written submission from Plantlife.

Further engagement was conducted with the Coast and Seas Partnership, Natural Resources Wales, the Keep Wales Tidy Youth Board, and the Future Generations Commissioner, where the provisional results of external engagement were shared for discussion.

A presentation was also delivered to the Community Group who took part in the evidence reports commissioned in support of the Anti-Racist Wales Action Plan. A broad overview of the targets was given, and of where GBF targets linked to the priorities outlined in those reports.

Summary of further engagement delivered by Welsh Government officials 

• Future Generations Commissioner: Monday 3 February 2025
• Ethnic Minority Community Event: Tuesday 4 February 2025 
• Coast and Seas Partnership: Thursday 13 February 2025 
• Keep Wales Tidy Youth Board: Tuesday 25 February 2025  

Internal long-listing

Agreement on allocation

On allocation to categories, six internal respondents agreed with the allocation of GBF targets to the four categories, while five respondents did not. Disagreement coalesced around Target 3 (30 by 30), which some respondents felt should be included under ‘resilient ecosystems’ as opposed to ‘safeguarded stocks of natural resources’. Other areas of disagreement included Target 10 (sustainable management) and Target 21 (knowledge).

On measurability scores, all 23 targets were allocated a red, amber, or green rating score for measurability. Seven internal respondents agreed with the measurability scores, while four respondents did not. Two of those respondents who disagreed that the measurability score for Target 12 (green spaces) was red, as this data was immediately available. Other respondents noted that species could be green due to availability of data.

Any disagreement was included in our consideration and final shortlisting. 

Those targets which were ranked first or second in their category, or third in the category ‘Safeguarded stocks of natural resources’ (including ties), are listed below. The GBF titles of the targets are included in full, but these form areas for further development. Further, these are not ranked in order of score, and some targets performed better for terrestrial or marine environments.

• target 1: plan and manage all areas to reduce biodiversity loss
• target 2: restore 30% of all degraded ecosystems
• target 3: conserve 30% of land, waters and seas
• target 5: ensure sustainable, safe and legal harvesting and trade of wild species
• target 7: reduce pollution to levels that are not harmful to biodiversity
• target 8: minimise the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and build resilience
• target 10: enhance biodiversity and sustainability in agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries, and forestry
• target 12: enhance green spaces and urban planning for human well-being and biodiversity
• target 14: integrate biodiversity in decision-making at every level
• target 18: reduce harmful incentives by at least $500 billion per year, and scale up positive incentives for biodiversity
• target 19: mobilise $200 billion per year for biodiversity from all sources, including $30 billion through international finance
• target 21: ensure that knowledge is available and accessible to guide biodiversity action

External engagement

In response to the question about the importance to tackling biodiversity loss, many respondents selected multiple targets if they felt that they were unable to choose just one. Some workshop participants did not provide any responses to this question.

A total of 20 targets were selected across eight workshop groupings (see Figure 1).

Respondents provided extensive comments about their chosen target(s). Some key themes that arose included, but were not limited to:

• the importance of reducing pesticide pollution, but also the importance of being able to use pesticides to tackle INNS
• financial and resource limitations of organisations delivering against any target, as well as availability of skills
• the importance of engaging and collaborating with local communities and stakeholders to achieve targets and ensure constructive progress is made
• targets may risk ‘biodiversity leakage’ – e.g., if more emphasis is placed on wood imports, this could impact high-biodiversity areas globally
• improving green spaces could be a mechanism to generate ‘buy-in’ with local urban communities, as well as a means to improve public health
• in the marine environment, there was an emphasis placed on the condition of protected areas, as much of the marine environment is already under some form of protection
• in the context of climate change, it was highlighted that genetic diversity promoted resilience, and there will need to be more proactive planning and management of protected areas

Figure 1: stacked bar chart showing highest scoring GBF targets, by sector

Image

Using both the results and any further written submissions, the following shortlist of GBF targets was identified, to be developed into priority areas for target setting:

• target 2: restore 30% of all degraded ecosystems
• target 3: conserve 30% of land, waters and seas
• target 4: halt species extinction, protect genetic diversity, and manage human-wildlife conflicts
• target 7: reduce pollution to levels that are not harmful to biodiversity
• target 14: integrate biodiversity in decision-making at every level
• target 21: ensure that knowledge is available and accessible to guide biodiversity action

The wording used in each GBF target has been used here, but these will provide the starting point for further target development to determine exact area of focus, level, and timescale.

The methodology and results were shared with the Biodiversity Targets Advisory Panel, for comment, to support us in developing priority areas.

Target 10 on sustainable management performed well in the prioritisation process. However, this overlaps with the Agriculture (Wales) Act 2023 (which includes a target setting process) and the Fisheries Act 2020. We will continue to work across Welsh Government to ensure that targets are complementary to existing statutory requirements.

Dasgupta, P. (2021), The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review. (London: HM Treasury).

Game, E.T.; Kareiva, P.; Possingham, H.P. 2013, Six Common Mistakes in Conservation Priority Setting. Conservation Biology 27.