Just Transition Framework: integrated impact assessment

The Just Transition Framework sets out the Welsh Government’s approach to achieving a just transition to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Framework is aimed at those taking action to decarbonise the economy, which includes all levels of government, businesses, third sector, and communities. The Welsh Government is encouraging these actors to embed the Framework in their current policy development and decision-making processes to help reduce further inequalities and improve outcomes for those most affected by the transition. The Framework describes three pillars which inform how policies and projects should be developed, and seven guiding principles that should be followed to ensure outcomes are fair for both people and planet. The Framework’s three pillars and seven guiding principles are directly linked to the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 (the WFG Act) [LEGISLATION.GOV.UK] and guide policy developers and decision-makers to think about the long-term impacts and opportunities linked to decarbonisation policies and plans.

Long term

The Welsh Government has stated its ambition and legislated for a target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The impacts of climate change and decarbonisation will impact different sectors, organisations, communities, and individuals in different ways.

The Just Transition Framework seeks to promote planning for the transition to net zero in a way that prevents creating new inequalities and addressing existing ones where possible. In doing so, it focuses on the need to develop an understanding of the impacts and opportunities of the transition, integrate this into decision-making processes and to involve those affected. This will enable the appropriate measures to be developed to cut emissions in a way that consciously takes into account the likely impacts and opportunities.

Prevention

The Framework aims to develop consistency across Government, organisations and communities in identifying both challenges and opportunities associated with decarbonisation. Transition planning is guided by principles aligned with Wales’ national well-being goals and international best practice [wcpp.org.uk/] in order to prevent exacerbating poverty, negative impacts on business and jobs, health and the environment, including biodiversity at home and internationally. By improving the decision-making process, prevention is at the heart of this approach. Where possible and identified, the guiding principles will also serve to identify where existing inequalities exist and can be addressed through decarbonisation action and grasp future opportunities to improve well-being and prosperity of current and future generations.  

Integration

The Just Transition Framework connects and adds value to a range of policies, helping ensure social, environmental, economic and cultural benefits are maximised and any likely negative impacts are identified. The Framework has identified cross-sectoral impacts on communities, businesses, and individuals, and contains three pillars, all of which highlight an intersectional approach:

Analysing Impacts and Opportunities

 Considering potential impacts and opportunities, and how they can be co-ordinated across sectors to maximise opportunities and minimise negative impacts.

Mobilising Stakeholders and Co-ordinating a Collective Response

Recognition that a multi-sectoral and coherent approach is required if we are to maximise the opportunities for a just transition.

Integrating the Just Transition in our decision-making

Provides universal guidance across Wales, so all policies are considering their impacts and opportunities, and these are integrated into planning. 

The Framework directly supports the following well-being objectives, that form part of our Programme for Government:  

1. Make our cities, towns and villages even better places in which to live and work. Embed our response to the climate and nature emergency in everything we do.
2. Build a stronger, greener economy as we make maximum progress towards decarbonisation’.
3. Build an economy based on the principles of fair work, sustainability and the industries and services of the future.
4. Celebrate diversity and move to eliminate inequality in all of its forms.

Collaboration

To strengthen our approach to the transition, we published a Call for Evidence at the end of 2022. We received 115 responses from a wide range of organisations including business, academia, third sector organisations, trade unions and community groups to inform our approach. The Call for Evidence informed the development of our approach which is set out in the Framework. We ran a Just Transition Framework consultation between December 2023 to March 2024, receiving 106 responses. The consultation responses have informed the final version of the Framework.

Involvement

In addition to the Call for Evidence, collaboration and involvement through Climate Conversations have informed the development of the Just Transition Framework. The Climate Conversations Fund has enabled organisations to host events with local communities across Wales. Between 2022 and 2024, the fund enabled public engagement through 116 events, with thorough feedback of public views fed back into our policies. 

We worked collaboratively to ensure discussions around fairness were included in the Wales Climate Week (WCW) 2025 agenda. This included a specific discussion around a just transition with representatives from the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan Sub-group on Climate Change, TUC Cymru, National Energy Action Charity, and the Bevan Foundation, covering areas of community involvement, transport policies, fair work, and fuel poverty. These discussions helped focus attention on just transition considerations and the feedback provided will help inform future work on implementation of the Framework.

Impact

The main arguments for and against the proposal have been outlined below. 

For

• The Just Transition framework promotes more informed decision-making in climate related policy. It provides policy- and action- makers with guidance and support to enable mitigation against unforeseen circumstances of decarbonisation, promoting a more planned, equitable and orderly economic transition.
• The Framework can be used as a practical tool to embed our Well-being of Future Generations legislation within climate policy.

Against

• The Framework could be seen as an added layer of bureaucracy, slowing initial decision-making. To avoid added resource and time pressures, the framework has been designed to embed just transition into already existing processes and maps to the well-being goals which are often already integrated into plans.
• It can be difficult to define what a ‘successful just transition’ will look like. Measuring just transition requires a wide range of data availability, and mechanisms to track progress in different contexts which can be difficult and resource-intensive for teams to embed in their processes.  

However, research conducted by the Wales Centre for Public Policy suggested that the WFG Act is a solid foundation from which to build a framework, and that tailored guiding principles were needed to help Wales develop its decarbonisation plans. The Framework uses the WFG Act to underpin the development of policies and plans that contribute to the decarbonising of the economy. Further engagement has been conducted, and support received, from the Future Generations Commissioner’s Office and officials from the Climate Change Committee.

Our engagement with Welsh Government colleagues has been positive, with teams welcoming just transition considerations. We will continue to work with policy areas to test and improve the useability of the framework and use this feedback to plan our future implementation work.

Costs and Savings

There are no direct financial implications to the implementation of the Framework. Any additional costs of its implementation are expected to be minimal and will be identified and managed as part of each individual policy or decision. External users of the Framework would be responsible for any costs incurred by their use of it. Officials in the Welsh Government Climate Change Division will lead on embedding the Framework within Government and will support its use with external stakeholders. Officials will provide support and resources to other officials and external stakeholders to enable them to take action independently.

1. Policy objectives 

The decision being assessed is the publication and implementation of a Just Transition Framework for Wales. In Net Zero Wales (2021), the Welsh Government re-stated its commitment to achieve a just transition away from the fossil-fuelled economy of the past to a new, low-carbon future. Delivering a just transition will mean as we move to a cleaner, more prosperous Wales, we will leave no-one behind. We will develop a clear understanding of the impacts of change, positive and negative, and how to make sure the impacts are fairly distributed in society. The journey to net zero will impact children and young people, and by linking the Framework to the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, we are strengthening the considerations of impacts on future generations. Specifically, a set of three pillars informs how decarbonisation should be planned in a way that analyses impacts and opportunities for different groups of people, involves people most likely to be affected by decisions, and embeds this way of thinking into decision-making structures. More widely, a just transition can benefit health outcomes, support family stability during economic change, and create stronger, more equitable communities with better long-term opportunities. By investing in new industries and ensuring vulnerable regions are not left behind, a just transition should help guarantee that children have improved access to jobs and a stable environment as they grow up.

2. Gathering evidence and engaging with children and young People

Evidence from a 2023 YouGov survey found that children and young people are widely anxious about climate change: 78% said they are worried, and 27% said they are very worried. The Framework encourages involvement from those most affected by decarbonisation decisions in the decision-making process. The Framework is also aligned with the Welsh Government’s Public Engagement Strategy, which makes a commitment to prioritise conversations around climate change with the seldom heard, including young people.

In addition to the mental health impacts, climate change has direct impacts of the physical health of children. The 2023 Climate Change in Wales: Health Impact Assessment [PHWWHOCC.CO.UK] confirms that children are one of the groups of people that are likely to experience disproportionate negative impacts of climate change. These impacts include being more sensitive to extreme heat associated with rising temperature, and illnesses as a result of flooding events. 

Another major factor linked to decarbonisation policies is poverty, with research showing [CHILDCOMWALES.ORG.UK] that nearly one in three children are living in poverty in Wales. These impacts include, but are not limited to, homes being in poor condition leading to increases in mould and damp, unaffordable and difficult access to transport services leading to missed education and medical appointments, and cost of living-related issues such as poor nutrition.

We hope, through implementation of the Framework, that these negative impacts improve over time. We hope to achieve this through ensuring the specific impacts of net zero policies on children and young people are considered and actioned. 

The purpose of this IIA is not to look at the impacts of decarbonisation policy or action on children, as IIAs will be required for specific decarbonisation policies. This IIA looks the impact of the Framework on ensuring children’s needs are considered effectively and understood as part of decarbonisation policy and action development. 

The Just Transition Framework is underpinned by the WFG Act. In line with the Act, the Framework encourages those taking climate action to involve young people in decisions so that they can influence the transition to a fair and net zero future. A just transition will mean we actively promote equality, children’s and human rights and prevent new inequalities from arising.

The results from the Call for Evidence highlighted the gap in evidence provided by children and young people. To help address this, the Welsh Government held 'Climate Conversations' events in 2023 which centred around the theme of fairness, and helped inform the development of the Framework. At the 46 events, there were 2,757 participants, of which 42.9% were under the age of 18. These events were of various sizes, primarily hosted by communities and offering further insights into how to achieve a fair transition to net zero in Wales. Young people were generally supportive of climate action, particularly in relation to improving access and affordability of public transport systems, accessing green spaces, and expanding renewable energy provision. However, a feeling of distrust towards government and decision-makers was evident, with participants at one event calling for increased participation through youth advisory boards, debates, and school-based activism.

3. Analysing the evidence and assessing the impact

The Just Transition Framework will shape other climate related policies, therefore there are no direct impacts on children and young people. The Framework, however, does encourage those taking action on climate change to consider the impacts and opportunities for those most affected by decisions, to involve those groups of people in policy development, and to integrate these considerations into decision-making structures. We hope, by encouraging these ways of working, that long-term outcomes for children and young people in Wales will be positive.

UNCRC Articles or Optional Protocol

Article 2 (non-discrimination) 

The Framework directly calls for equality of outcome with the inclusion of the guiding principle: Champion Equality and Rights and Share the Costs and Benefits Fairly.

Article 6 (life, survival and development) 

The Framework encourages climate policies to improve health and well-being as part of the guiding principles and asks that analysis is used to inform policies that prevent further inequalities and drive a more positive future for Wales.

Article 12 (respect for the views of the child) 

One of the Framework’s three pillars of the Framework is mobilising stakeholders and it highlights the importance of input and involvement from all those the specific policies affect.

This is strengthened in the Framework’s guidance, where emphasis is given to the voices of children as the citizens who will carry the legacy of the decisions made today.

Article 13 (freedom of expression)   

Similarly to Article 12, involvement of those most affected, particularly children, is emphasised through the core of the Framework’s involvement pillar and supported further through links to the Welsh Government’s engagement strategies.

Article 23 (children with a disability)  

Intersectionality is driven through the Analysing Impacts and Opportunities pillar, and in the guiding principle Champion Equality and Rights and Share the Costs and Benefits Fairly. It is further strengthened in the guidance with specific references to disabled people.

Article 24 (health and health services) 

The Framework’s guiding principle: Improve Health and Well-being through Climate Action ensures health implications of climate action is considered. 

Article 27 (adequate standard of living) 

A key intended outcome from the implementation of the Framework is the improvement in the standard of living for the people of Wales. Reducing inequalities and providing opportunities is a theme throughout the Framework’s pillars and principles.

Article 29 (goals of education)  

The Framework’s guiding principle: Invest in Education, Skills and a Low-Carbon Economy directly references the education needs of our future economy.

Article 31 (leisure, play and culture) 

The Framework aims to improve this by promoting wider considerations of decarbonisation policies, including through the following guiding principles: 

• Improve Health and Well-being through Climate Action
• Adapt to Climate Change and Enhance the Natural Environment
• Support and Enhance the Culture of Wales and the Welsh Language

Article 42 (knowledge of rights)  

We are actively asking policy developers to be aware Children’s Rights through the guiding principle: Champion Equality and Rights.

4. Ministerial advice and decision

The ministerial advice fully reflected the nature and content of the framework and highlighted its close alignment with the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

5. Communicating with Children and Young People

We will publish the Framework and continue to engage with our stakeholders, including children, throughout the next phase of implementation. We will do this through ongoing involvement in planning for Wales Climate Week, and feeding into associated climate conversation events [CLIMATEACTION.GOV.WALES] where possible. We will develop additional communications resources to help communicate with young people and children, such as the development of a short, concise explanatory document to share key ideas from the framework – an ‘essentials’ document, and practical case studies.

6. Monitoring and Review

This CRIA has considered potential impacts arising from decarbonisation action across Wales on children and young people. Individual policies aimed at decarbonising the economy will consider their own impacts and monitor their CRIAs in turn. 

To track the progress of the Just Transition, we will develop a high-level monitoring approach to understand the progress Wales makes towards a just transition. This will involve the monitoring and evaluation of several quantitative and qualitative data sources, against relevant identified indicators.

1. Describe and explain the impact of the proposal on people with protected characteristics as described in the Equality Act 2010.

The Just Transition Framework sets out the Welsh Government’s approach to achieving net zero by 2050 in a way that distributes benefits and costs fairly across Welsh society. The Framework is underpinned by the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and the Public Sector Equality Duty, ensuring that decarbonisation and climate resilience work is carried out in a way that avoids creating or exacerbating inequalities and supports a systems approach to understanding and addressing risks and opportunities. The purpose of this IIA is not to look at the impacts of decarbonisation policy or action on equality– IIAs will be required for specific decarbonisation policies.  This IIA looks the impact of the Framework on ensuring equality is considered effectively as part of decarbonisation policy and action development.
The Framework embeds equality as a core principle, requiring that the impacts and opportunities of the net zero transition are analysed for different societal groups. It sets out guiding principles to help ensure that decisions are made equitably and that the distribution of costs and benefits of the transition are considered. It calls for intersectional analysis, recognising that people may experience multiple and compounding disadvantages.

In the absence of planning for the transition, negative impacts could fall across people in protected groups without mitigation, or benefits may not be fairly allocated across society. The Just Transition Framework should be used during early stages in developing policies or proposals. This is because it plays an important role in prompting considerations of unintended consequences and benefits on different groups of people. These need to be identified early so they can be mitigated and planned for effectively. Specific assessment should be made using an IIA.

The aim of the Framework is to ensure that planners and policy makers use evidence to identify challenges and barriers that people who share protected characteristics might face as we move to decarbonise Wales. They will be required to identify barriers these people might face, and take appropriate action to reduce, remove and mitigate these barriers. We saw positive support for this in the Call for Evidence responses. 

Aligned with Wales’ national well-being goal, ‘A More Equal Wales’, one of the guiding principles in the Framework is to ‘Champion Equality and Rights and Share the Costs and Benefits Fairly’. This helps ensure that anyone using the Just Transition Framework is considering the following impacts of their policy:

1. The groups of people who are likely to be positively and negatively impacted by the transition, and what could be done to mitigate the negative and maximise the positive impacts.
2. How their policy addresses poverty and promotes equality of opportunity.
3. How intersectional impacts are considered. 

Individual policies and proposals that have considered the Just Transition Framework will also be responsible for sharing their more detailed, specific EIAs to consider unintended impacts and consequences. The Just Transition Framework also has ‘Analysing Impacts and Opportunities’ as one of its three pillars which describe ‘how’ policymakers can consider a just transition, which is anticipated to support wider impact consideration. 

Due to the enabling and guiding nature of this policy, it will be necessary for the people who use the Framework to identify relevant impacts on a policy-by-policy basis. 

An immediate priority following the publication is to develop a monitoring and evaluation strategy, to enable monitoring of the Framework in improving outcomes, improve on weaker areas of implementation, and identify further engagement opportunities. We aim to develop a monitoring framework in 2026. 

Record of Impacts by protected characteristic 

The Framework’s guiding principles are designed to drive improved outcomes for vulnerable groups by ensuring those using the Framework think more widely about their policies. This is embedded throughout the framework, but a key focus of one of our guiding principles:

Champion Equality and Rights and Share the Costs and Benefits Fairly. Through the provision of question sets against both pillars and principles, we are prompting considerations of underrepresentation and intersectionality of impacts, for example: Are marginalised or underrepresented groups actively included in decision-making? and How will the distribution of the policy impacts and opportunities be considered through an intersectional lens to prevent exacerbating inequalities? 

Due to the nature of the Framework – a high-level tool to assist with wider considerations associated with decarbonisation policies and decisions – the specific impact assessment of the Framework on groups with protected characteristics has been carried out indicatively only. For each group, we have identified an example of decarbonisation policy or action, and their potential impacts. 

There are a wide range of decarbonisation actions that the Welsh Government will be taking to reach net zero emissions by 2050. All these actions and policy areas will be required to complete an Integrated Impact Assessment to assess the impacts on all of the protected characteristic groups outlined below. 

Protected characteristic or group

Age (think about different age groups)   

Example policy or proposal     

• Children living in cold homes.
• Older people living in cold homes    

Positive and negative impacts of proposal     

Several responses from the Call for Evidence (CfE) highlighted the opportunity to positively impact mental health. The response notes that a lack of affordable warmth is associated with multiple mental health risks, particularly for young people. Living in cold homes increases the likelihood of exposure to these risks, with individuals in such situations being seven times more likely to face mental health challenges.

CfE suggested older people are more likely to experience fuel poverty, as they often have to allocate a larger proportion of their income towards fuel costs. This leaves them with limited resources for other essential needs.

How will you mitigate Impacts?

The Just Transition Framework’s guiding principles include these key questions for decision-makers to ask themselves during policy development: How will the transition, directly or indirectly, impact the wider determinants of health and well-being? How will the transition address poverty and promote equality of opportunity? 

By asking these questions, policymakers can better account for how decarbonisation measures affect various groups, allowing unintended benefits and consequences to be identified and addressed. While heating and energy are significant sector focusses, the framework will apply to a wider range of decarbonisation actions, including improvements in air quality, active transport, food production, access to green space, agriculture, waste management, and skills development. Each of these areas will have distinct impacts on all groups of people, and IIAs for specific policy areas will address this comprehensively.  

Disability (consider the social model of disability and the way in which your proposal could inadvertently cause, or could be used to proactively remove, the barriers that disable people with different types of impairments) 

Example policy or proposal 

Active transport [ACTIVETRAVELSTUDIES.ORG]

Positive and negative impacts of proposal     

Active travel promotes physical activity which can improve a number of health-associated areas, including cardiovascular health and mental well-being. Wheels for Wellbeing demonstrate the importance of considering the needs of disabled people in policies and legislation around active travel, for physical and mental health benefits, environmental and sustainability agendas, and to improve congestion. 

Active travel may not be accessible to everyone [CYCLINGUK.ORG] – particularly those with reduced mobility. Disabled people often rely on public transport options more, because they often cannot drive, walk or cycle. 

There is an opportunity for active travel to make travelling easier for people with certain mobility needs, with research showing that public transport can pose a range of barriers, and that cycling was a preferred form of transport for some, for example, those with visual impairments who can no longer obtain a driver’s license. 

Research shows [WHEELSFORWELLBEING.ORG.UK] that clean air and safer streets can benefit disabled people more, as they can often be more vulnerable to air pollution-related health issues.

If the voices of disabled people are not sought during policy design, active travel schemes may prioritise the needs of able-bodied users, which can reinforce inequalities.

How will you mitigate Impacts?

The Framework emphasises fairness and participation. Procedural justice is highlighted, to promote participatory decision making. 

The Framework’s pillars encourage consideration of: How can the transition prevent further inequalities and drive a more positive future for Wales’ communities? How have we ensured the collaboration and involvement has been inclusive, accessible, and representative?

The guiding principles encourage consideration of the following: How will the transition contribute to healthy behaviours and lifestyles? What groups of people are likely to be positively and negatively impacted by the transition and what could be done to mitigate the negative impacts? How will the transition support safe, attractive and connected communities?

A full assessment by specific policy areas is encouraged through the framework, to ensure a wide range of barriers faced by disabled people are considered. This will need to include physical, behavioural, and systemic barriers that may arise from decarbonisation policies, with a proactive focus on removing obstacles and creating opportunities for an improvement in outcomes for disabled people.

Gender Reassignment (the act of transitioning and Transgender people)   

Example policy or proposal 

Unidentified to date

Positive and negative impacts of proposal  

There are currently gaps in this area of consideration. We hope to address these gaps by engaging with a wide range of stakeholders and updating the Impact Assessment and Framework as new, relevant information becomes available.  The principles and pillars should however offer meaningful prompts to consider gender reassignments.    

Pregnancy and maternity

Example policy or proposal     

Unidentified to date

Positive and negative impacts of proposal  

There are currently gaps in this area of consideration. We hope to address these gaps by engaging with a wide range of stakeholders and updating the Impact Assessment and framework as new, relevant information becomes available. The principles and pillars should however offer meaningful prompts to consider pregnancy and maternity issues.    

Race (include different ethnic minorities, Gypsies and Travellers and Migrants, Asylum seekers and Refugees)

Example policy or proposal 

Workplace opportunities in green industries

Positive and negative impacts of proposal  

More needs to be done to address workplace cultures and norms, as well as addressing the disproportionate representation of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic women in low-paying and insecure roles within these sectors.

The Race Report highlighted that the environment and sustainability sector is one of the least racially diverse in the country. Ot highlights that 6-7% of roles are filled by non-white identities, compared to a population of 14-15% of non-white identities in the general population. 

Research shows that students from ethnic minority communities desire jobs that help the environment more than their White British equivalents. This requires targeted interventions to have more ethnic minority communities studying STEM subjects and being exposed to environmental areas of work. 

How will you mitigate Impacts?   

We will be engaging widely as we implement the framework to ensure all policy areas are working to actively mitigate the impacts on ethnic minority groups and maximise opportunities for them. 

The Framework’s guiding principles encourage policymakers to consider ethnic minority communities through the following considerations: Are the skills required for the transition available? Are there opportunities or support you can provide to help meet future needs? How are intersectional impacts (e.g. gender and ethnicity) considered? How will the transition promote equality of opportunity? Are marginalised or underrepresented groups actively included in decision making?

The Framework’s pillars encourage consideration of: How will the distribution of the policy impacts and opportunities be considered through an intersectional lens to prevent exacerbated inequality? What insights can we use to prevent future inequalities, including from those with lived experiences? How does the policy integrate decisions that help dismantle the systemic barriers that disproportionately affect different groups of people, e.g. Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic communities?

Religion, belief and non-belief    

Example policy or proposal 

Unidentified to date  

Positive and negative impacts of proposal  

There are currently gaps in this area of consideration. We hope to address these gaps by engaging with a wide range of stakeholders such as Faith for the Climate. 

We have actively engaged with the researchers who wrote Beyond The Tick-Box: meaningful inclusion of racialised communities in UK net zero policy to consider language and communication in our framework, and consider the cultural and religious motivations for climate action.  

Sex / Gender    

Example policy or proposal 

• Access to jobs and opportunities
• Fair work    

Positive and negative impacts of proposal  

According to the CfE response, offering training or reskilling to women or marginalised groups for net zero employment does not necessarily address deeper issues. Their evidence showed that when workplace cultures and structures continue to reflect male-centred (androcentric) norms, green projects risk unintentionally perpetuating inequality.    

Sexual orientation (Lesbian, Gay and Bisexual) 

Example policy or proposal 

Nothing to date but sought to engage with Framework

Positive and negative impacts of proposal  

There are currently gaps in this area of consideration. We hope to address these gaps by engaging with a wide range of stakeholders and updating the Impact Assessment and Framework as new, relevant information becomes available. The principles and pillars should however offer meaningful prompts to consider sexual orientation.    

Marriage and civil partnership

Example policy or proposal 

Unidentified to date

Positive and negative impacts of proposal  

There are currently gaps in this area of consideration. We hope to address these gaps by engaging with a wide range of stakeholders and updating the Impact Assessment and framework as new, relevant information becomes available. The principles and pillars should however offer meaningful prompts to consider marriage and civil partnerships.    

Children and young people up to the age of 18

Example policy or proposal 

See impact assessment 

Low-income households

Example policy or proposal 

There is a risk of job losses, and the upfront costs of decarbonisation measures may be unaffordable for some groups, potentially leaving them facing higher travel and heating costs.

Positive and negative impacts of proposal  

Some costs of the transition may fall disproportionately on those groups who are least able to afford them, for example, installation of air source heat pumps/solar panels to move away from older heat sources, could financially disrupt lower-income households. 

If not mitigated, this could increase financial hardship for lower-income households.    

How will you mitigate Impacts? 

By embedding our framework across sectors, we can promote active considerations of the challenges that face low-income households in decarbonisation policy. 

These considerations are pushed through the Just Transition Framework, particularly through the pillars which prompt policy-makers to consider: How can the transition prevent further inequalities and drive a more positive future for Wales’ communities, workforce, businesses and the environment? How is long-term thinking embedded in our decision-making processes? How will the distribution of the policy impacts and opportunities be considered through an intersectional lens to prevent exacerbated inequality?

Our guiding principles also promote fair and equitable thinking, through: How will the transition support the creation of high-quality jobs that are secure, fairly paid, and offer opportunities for progression and development? How will the transition address poverty and promote equality of opportunity, including for people from marginalised backgrounds?  

Human Rights and UN Conventions

Do you think that this policy will have a positive or negative impact on people’s human rights?

Human Rights    

Article 2 – Right to Life

What are the positive or negative impacts of the proposal?    

The Framework aims to protect life by encouraging policy areas to consider the impacts of the transition to a net zero economy on fuel poverty, public health, and healthy environments.

If the transition to decarbonisation is not planned and implemented fairly, some groups may face increased health risks and negative impacts on their overall well-being.  

Reasons for your decision (including evidence)  

The Framework is designed to reduce the negative impacts that decarbonisation may have on life and health. It is underpinned by the broader, statutory consideration of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.     

How will you mitigate negative Impacts?

IIAs are required for all policies, and the just transition section within it will ensure risks are identified and mitigated, with targeted support for specific policy areas being developed. 

8.1    How have people most likely to be affected by the proposal been involved in developing it?

The development of the Just Transition Framework has been underpinned by extensive engagement and involvement with those most likely to be affected. The Welsh Government undertook a comprehensive Call for Evidence and formal consultation, receiving over 200 responses from a wide range of stakeholders, including businesses, public sector bodies, third sector organisations, trade unions, community groups, and representatives of children and young people. Targeted engagement included Climate Conversations events, which attracted nearly 2,000 participants from diverse backgrounds, and included education providers and youth organisations. These events ensured that the voices of Wales’ diverse populations were heard and taken into account. The Framework’s development was further informed by feedback from internal and external experts, such as the Future Generations Commissioner’s Office and Welsh Government policy teams

8.2 What are the most significant impacts, positive and negative?

Positive impacts

The Framework aims to address inequalities and fairness, to create benefits and opportunities and mitigate negative impacts for those affected by the transition to a net zero economy. Therefore, a variety of positive impacts are anticipated:

Strategic consistency within Welsh Government

Embedding the Framework enables consistent, cross-sectoral planning that integrates social, economic, environmental and cultural considerations aligning with the Well-being of Future Generations Act. The Framework provides guidance on integration of fairness and equity within the Welsh Government’s decarbonisation policy process. 

Equality, fairness and inclusion

The Framework encourages policy areas to consider the equal distribution of costs and opportunities in the transition to a net zero economy. It helps to identify and mitigate inequalities and improve opportunities for underrepresented communities. This was a strong theme throughout our engagement on the proposed approach with internal and external colleagues, with many responses emphasising the need to encourage understanding of how overlapping disadvantages shape vulnerability to net zero transition impacts. 

Stakeholder engagement

By encouraging inclusive engagement processes, the Framework strengthens trust and transparency in decision-making. It highlights the need for those most affected to be involved from the outset of policy development. 

Foundation for further guidance

The Framework supports future work to embed a just transition across policy areas and sectors. This includes work to include just transition considerations in impact assessments, decarbonisation plans, and stakeholder engagement. This supports the Welsh Government’s objective to “embed our response to the climate and nature emergency in everything we do”.

Negative impacts

While there are no direct negative impacts anticipated as a result of the Framework publication, there are some risks associated with publishing and embedding the Framework. 

Administrative burden

Some stakeholders, particularly those who are already with strained resources, may view the embedding of the Framework into their plans as an additional, time-consuming exercise. This could impact the consistency of delivery against just transition considerations depending on resource, leading to some sectors or policy areas making more robust considerations than others. This was a key theme identified in our engagement on the framework, particularly amongst internal policy teams and public sector representatives, with a call for capacity-building, guidance, and funding to be made available.

Risk of performative use

If there are no measures in place to hold organisations to account with regards to just transition, the Framework could be adopted and considered as a ‘tick-box’ process, without delivering benefits for people in Wales. This risk is exacerbated by the absence of a robust monitoring procedure in place at the time of publishing the Framework, however this is a priority development following publication. There is an additional associated risk that embedding the Framework focuses on compliance rather than delivering improved outcomes, which could slow progress towards Welsh Government’s well-being objectives. 

Limited influence

The Framework cannot directly address policy areas that sit within UK Government, for example welfare or trade, or within private sector organisations. This can limit its ability to fully deliver more equal and fair outcomes for people in Wales. 

In conclusion, embedding the Just Transition Framework provides a structured and principled approach to delivering a fair and inclusive transition to net zero in Wales. It operationalises the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 by aligning with its goals and ways of working and supports the Welsh Government’s well-being objectives. While its success depends on effective implementation and ongoing support, the Framework offers a strong foundation for ensuring that climate action contributes to a more equal, resilient, and prosperous Wales.

8.3 In light of the impacts identified, how will the proposal: 

• maximise contribution to our well-being objectives and the seven well-being goals;  and/or,

• avoid, reduce or mitigate any negative impacts?

The proposal maximises its contribution to the well-being goals by requiring action against three pillars that are linked to the WFG Act’s five ways of working: analysing impacts and opportunities, mobilising stakeholders, and integrating just transition into decision-making. A set of seven guiding principles ensure that, among other factors, equality, children’s rights, fair work, culture and Welsh language, and environmental protection and enhancement are considered through climate action.

To maximise positive impacts, we plan to develop and implement targeted resources for policy areas and sectors most at risk of impacting their stakeholders in the transition to a net zero economy. We will maintain and strengthen our engagement to make sure that most affected communities are actively included, and build relevant evidence bases to fill evidence gaps to inform our implementation programme. 

To mitigate the risks associated with implementing the Framework, we plan to monitor and address unintended consequences through reviewing the Framework’s useability by seeking feedback regularly. We will ensure that transition planning is sensitive to local context and encourages place-based and sectoral planning, to tailor measures to specific needs. We will prioritise the development of a monitoring methodology to track how the Framework is being embedded, and more importantly, how well it is delivering meaningful outcomes. 

In doing so, the Framework will help ensure that the transition to a net zero economy is not only environmentally effective, but socially just, contributing to all seven well-being goals and wider Welsh Government priorities.

8.4 How will the impact of the proposal be monitored and evaluated as it progresses and when it concludes? 

Monitoring and evaluation of the Just Transition Framework will be developed as part of the post-publication work programme. We will identify quantitative and qualitative indicators that will help track progress on a just transition. This will help Welsh Government assess the extent to which just transition considerations are being integrated into decision-making processes, such as impact assessments and sectoral plans. Evaluation will also be informed by stakeholder feedback, including through engagement activities such as Wales Climate Week and sector-specific workshops. 

Post-implementation review will be aligned with the publication of the plan for Wales’ third carbon budget (2026-2030) in late 2026, allowing for reflection on how the Framework has supported decarbonisation and climate action. This will include consideration of how the Framework has helped identify and mitigate inequalities, promote inclusive engagement, and support fair outcomes for communities across Wales.