Land Transaction Tax statistics: October to December 2023

In this quarterly release, we have for the first time published in-year data for local areas within Wales, that is local authorities, National Parks and Senedd constituencies. The data presented relate to the year ending December 2023, and we will update this data in future quarterly releases. Previously, data for areas within Wales was published only in our annual statistical releases. Given this development, we are considering whether we need to publish annual statistical releases in future. We welcome your comments on these changes to data@wra.gov.wales. 

Land Transaction Tax (LTT) is payable on residential and non-residential property and land interests purchased in Wales. The tax rates and tax bands for LTT vary depending on the type of transaction.

This statistical release analyses the main trends in transactions and tax due for LTT. The accompanying spreadsheet and our StatsWales tables contain more detailed information.

LTT statistics provide relatively timely information on activity in the Welsh property market. The statistics are also used by the Office for Budget Responsibility to forecast LTT revenues.

The glossary defines relevant terms used in this release. Our key quality information describes how LTT statistics satisfy the Code of Practice for Statistics. 

LTT statistics are accredited official statistics. In February 2022, the Office for Statistics Regulation independently reviewed and accredited these statistics as complying with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

Our statistical output policy explains the policies and procedures we have in place for publishing official statistics, including our approach to revisions. We also publish the list of posts which have pre-release access to our statistics, including for LTT.

When comparing LTT statistics over time, users should be aware of previous changes to LTT rates which affect the amount of tax due:

Changes to the nil rate threshold from 27 July 2020 to 31 March 2021

Extension of the temporary tax reduction period from 31 March 2021 to 30 June 2021

Increase to the higher residential rates and changes for non-residential property from 27 December 2022

Changes to main residential rates and bands from 10 October 2022

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Residential transactions

• In October to December 2023, residential transactions were down 21% from the same quarter a year earlier, while the tax due was down 22%.
• Higher rates transactions were down 18% on the same quarter a year earlier.
• In each month in 2023, the numbers of transactions and amount of tax due have been lower than the same month a year earlier. These trends were likely to have been influenced by wider economic conditions. 
• The percentage of transactions in the higher property bands has generally been increasing in the past few years. Similarly, the contribution of these transactions to overall tax due has generally risen. For example, sales of residential properties over £750,000 contributed 4% of tax due in April to June 2018, rising to 18% in October to December 2023.

Non-residential transactions

• In October to December 2023, non-residential transactions were similar to the same quarter a year earlier, while the tax due was down 18%.
• In April to December 2022, the monthly tax due on non-residential transactions was above the monthly average (calculated since April 2018) for most of the time. From January 2023 onwards, the monthly non-residential tax due was below the monthly average (£6.9 million) every month except for March 2023.
• In October to December 2023, 64% of non-residential tax due was contributed by transactions where there was a purchase involved of over £1 million. However, these transactions made up only 7% of non-residential transactions in this period. Meanwhile, the 27% of transactions with a rental element contributed 14% of the tax due.

Analysis within Wales (data for the year ending December 2023)

By local authority, higher rates transactions as a percentage of all residential transactions varied from 14% in Torfaen and Flintshire to 34% in Isle of Anglesey.

Compared with the previous year, the local authorities with the largest percentage changes were:

• Wrexham (increase of 4 percentage points)
• Gwynedd, Conwy and Torfaen (each with a decrease of 3 percentage points)
• Isle of Anglesey and Carmarthenshire (each with an increase of 3 percentage points)

In general, there has been reduced higher rates activity in some areas of Wales, particularly in some of the western or northern local authorities. Possible reasons for this could include the impact of wider economic conditions upon transactions or second homes policies impacting upon transactions.

These trends continue those seen when we previously published this data in July 2023 (for the year ending March 2023). The main exception is the Isle of Anglesey for which the percentage of residential transactions at the higher rates has increased over the previous year. 

Although the reasons for this remain unclear, we can see this recent trend in Isle of Anglesey is due to higher rates activity in the area remaining relatively flat despite the more general fall in residential transactions that has impacted every area of Wales. It is not due to an overall rise in higher rate transactions there.

It is important to note that several factors can mean a residential transaction is subject to higher rates. These include:

• purchasing buy-to-let properties
• buying a second home or holiday home
• buying a new property while trying to sell an existing one
• companies such as social housing providers buying properties

The LTT statistics only include properties sold in the past year. They don’t represent the full stock of properties in any local authority.

Further information on how to use statistics on the higher rates of LTT is presented in:

• the article accompanying our previous annual release
• a statistical article published by Welsh Government: ‘Second homes: What does the data tell us?

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Adam Al-Nuaimi, Head of Data Analysis in the WRA, commented on these statistics:

Quarterly residential LTT revenues in 2023 were lower than the previous two years, though generally remaining higher than in the three years prior to that. The lower revenues in 2023 reflected lower numbers of transactions, likely to have been influenced by wider economic conditions.

In October to December, quarterly revenue from non-residential transactions was higher than the previous quarter but lower than in each of the eleven previous quarters before that. The earlier trends were largely driven by a small number of large transactions, and we have seen fewer of these recently.

We're pleased to begin publishing data for local areas within Wales in our quarterly releases, rather than waiting for our end-of-year annual publication. Whilst the message in the local data has not changed significantly since we last published these data in July 2023, we see this as an important development, allowing users to track the local data in a more timely manner going forward.

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Please note that throughout this release, any use of the term ‘non-residential’ includes transactions that are not wholly residential. That is, those transactions which have both residential and commercial elements.

Users should be aware that if a property of piece of land is sold multiple times within a quarter or a year, it would feature multiple times in the statistics for that period. For example, in April 2022 to March 2023, we estimate that between 3% and 4% of transactions involved a piece of land or property which has been sold more than once in the year.

The data presented in this release has been extracted as at 15 January 2024, unless otherwise stated.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (includes data back to April 2018, not presented above)

[Note 1] This item only includes the additional revenue from higher rate transactions. This item does not include the main rate component of higher rate transactions.

[Note 2] Estimates for October to December 2022 were made in January 2023.

Largely due to seasonal patterns in the property market, it can be helpful to compare the current period with data from the same period a year earlier. Therefore, when comparing October to December 2023 on a like-for-like basis with October to December 2022:

• the total number transactions fell by 19% and the tax due on those transactions fell by 21%
• residential transactions fell by 21% and the tax due on those transactions fell by 22%
• of which, higher rates transactions fell by 18%
• additional revenue from higher rates residential transactions fell by 17%
• non-residential transactions were flat. Tax due from non-residential transactions fell by 18%

Figure 1: Weekly number of transactions submitted to the WRA

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Description of Figure 1: The line chart shows the weekly number of transactions submitted to the WRA had a sharp drop during holidays. Generally, the weekly numbers of transactions submitted since April 2023 were lower than the same week in the previous year. 

Source: Weekly number of transactions submitted to the WRA (Open Document Spreadsheet, 119 Kb) (includes data back to April 2018, not presented above)

[Note 1] This includes a small number of transactions effective in January 2024.

Figure 1 above shows the total number of transactions submitted to the WRA in each 7-day period for the latest 2 financial years. These periods begin on a Saturday and end on the following Friday. For example, the point ’7-Oct’ in 2023-24 shows the number of residential and non-residential transactions submitted to the WRA from 7 to 13 October 2023 (inclusive). The actual dates differ slightly in the previous year. For example, the equivalent week in the previous year ran from 6 to 12 October 2022 (inclusive).

Figure 1 shows data by submitted date and does not use data extracted on a certain date. This differs from effective date, which is the date we use for most analysis in this release and for which we extract data as at a particular date (15 January 2024 in this release).

Figure 2: Number of transactions, by type and month the transaction was effective

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Description of Figure 2: The line chart shows that the monthly number of residential transactions from April to December 2023 was lower than the same month a year earlier, though the gap was smaller for June. Since April 2023, non-residential transactions were at a lower level and fluctuated, with a large rise seen in March 2023 from the previous month.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (includes data back to April 2018, not presented above)

[p] Values for December 2023 are provisional and will be revised in a future publication.

[r] Values for September to November 2023 are revised in this publication. Higher rates residential transactions for earlier periods have been revised downwards due to higher rate refunds being claimed.

In a typical year, the number of residential transactions by effective month vary somewhat. There is general seasonality with more transactions in the summer and autumn months, although some fluctuation is due to there being five Fridays in particular months, rather than four. Figure 2.9 in our annual statistical release shows that 44% of transactions effective in April 2022 to March 2023 have an effective date that is a Friday.

Since April 2023, the number of residential transactions was lower than the same month in the previous year, except for a smaller difference in June which was likely impacted by there being five Fridays in June 2023.

For non-residential transactions, in March each year we see an increase from the previous month (February). This may generally be due to non-residential leases to be renewed at the end of the financial year. However, in March 2023, the increase in non-residential transactions over February was due to purchases, and the reasons for this are unclear. 

Figure 3: Tax due on residential transactions, by month transaction was effective [£ million]

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Description of Figure 3: The line chart shows since April 2023, the monthly amount of tax due on residential transactions was lower than the same month in the previous year. In April to December 2022, the monthly tax due on non-residential transactions was above the monthly average (calculated since April 2018) most of the time. From January 2023 onwards, the monthly non-residential tax due was below the monthly average (£6.8 million) every month except for March 2023.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (includes data back to April 2018, not presented above)

[Note 1] This item only includes the additional revenue from higher rate transactions. This item does not include the main rate component of higher rate transactions. 

[p] Values for December 2023 are provisional and will be revised in a future publication.

[r] Residential values for November 2023 and earlier have been revised downwards in this publication. This is to account for refunds of the higher rates of residential tax being paid out. Non-residential values for September to November 2023 have also been revised.

As may be expected, similar trends are generally seen in the monthly residential tax due and the monthly counts of transactions.

Revenues from residential transactions fell considerably in January 2023 over the previous month. This was likely influenced by seasonal trends in the property market and wider economic conditions beginning to impact upon transactions. In the following months, revenues remained lower than revenues seen in the same months the previous year.

Monthly non-residential revenues were particularly high in June and September 2022. This was due to a small number of large non-residential transactions, of which most were purchases. We have seen fewer such large transactions in the nine months since and lower revenues. 

Generally, there is greater volatility in the monthly series for non-residential transactions (than for residential transactions). They also make up a larger share of total tax due than the share of the number of transactions.

Residential transactions by value

Figures 4 and 5 below shows quarterly trends in the number of residential transactions and amount of tax due in each tax band. There are six residential tax bands. We have combined the largest two bands here to show results for properties purchased for more than £750,000.

Transactions below £400,000 have been split into two categories based on the nil rate threshold for main rates transactions that was in place at the relevant times in the past five years.

For higher rates transactions, the nil rate threshold has been static over the last five years at £180,000. Therefore higher rates transactions with a value up to £180,000 are included in the band ‘up to and including the nil rate threshold’. And higher rates transactions with a value from £180,001 to £400,000 will still be included in the band ‘above the nil rate threshold, up to and including £400,000’. 

For main rates transactions, the nil rate threshold was:

• £180,000 from 1 April 2018 to 26 July 2020 and from 1 July 2021 to 9 October 2022
• £250,000 from 27 July 2020 to 30 June 2021 (due to the temporary tax reduction period)
• £225,000 from 10 October 2022 onwards (due to a permanent change in main residential rates and bands)

In the time periods where the nil rate threshold for main rates was higher (27 July 2020 to 30 June 2021 and since 20 October 2022), this influenced the number of transactions in the two categories ‘up to and including the nil rate threshold’ and ‘above the nil rate threshold, up to and including £400,000’.

Figure 4: Number of residential transactions, by residential tax band and quarter the transaction was effective

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Description of Figure 4: The line chart shows the number of residential transactions in the bands ‘up to and including the nil rate threshold’ and ‘above the nil rate threshold up to and including £400,000’ varied considerably over time. The quarterly number of transactions in the ‘£400,001 to £750,000‘ and ‘over £400,000’ bands were highest in October to December 2022 and July to September 2022 and have been lower since.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and residential transaction value on StatsWales

[p] The values for October to December 2023 are provisional and will be revised in a future publication.

[r] The values for July to September 2023 have been revised in this publication.

Figure 5: Tax due on residential transactions, by residential tax band and quarter the transaction was effective [£ million]

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Description of Figure 5: The line chart shows that the quarterly amounts of tax due in the upper value tax bands was considerably higher in the past three years than in the years prior to that. The amounts of tax due deriving from the ‘£400,001 to £750,000’ and ‘over £750,000’ bands were highest in July to September 2022 and April to June 2022 respectively, with lower values being seen in the following quarters.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and residential transaction value on StatsWales

[p] Values for October to December 2023 are provisional and will be revised in a future publication.

[r] Values for July to September 2023 and earlier have been revised downwards in this publication. This is to account for refunds of the higher rates of residential tax being paid out.

Despite the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) from March 2020 and the recovery which followed, seasonal trends can still be seen in the numbers of transactions. In Figure 4, most of the tax bands show a fall in the number of transactions in January to March (compared with the preceding October to December). Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 and previous changes to LTT rates is presented in previous releases. 

For the ‘above the nil rate threshold up to and including £400,000’ and ‘Over £750,000’ bands shown in Figure 5, the amounts of tax due in July to September 2022 were the highest quarterly values seen to date, with lower values being seen since. Similarly, the quarterly tax due in the £400,001 to £750,000’ band was highest in July to September 2022 and October to December 2022 with lower values being seen more recently. The previous increases in tax due are mainly driven by increases in the value of properties involved. 

Figure 6: Percentage of residential transactions and tax due in each tax band, October to December 2023 [note 1] [provisional]

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Description of Figure 6: The bar chart shows that in October to December 2023, residential transactions which were up to and including the nil rate threshold accounted for nearly three fifths of all transactions and around a tenth of the total tax due. Meanwhile, the 1% of transactions which were over £750,000 accounted for 18% of the total tax due.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and residential transaction value on StatsWales (includes data back to April 2018, not presented above)

Figure 6 shows that in October to December 2023, 59% of residential transactions were up to and including the nil rate threshold (defined below Figure 4). Percentages for previous quarters varied between 45% and 71%. In October to December 2023, these transactions accounted for 10% of residential tax due. This is lower than the 22% seen in April to June 2018 (not shown in Figure 6), with generally a decreasing trend seen in the intervening five years.

In October to December 2023, the 1% of residential transactions with a value over £750,000 contributed 18% of residential tax due. For previous quarters, the percentage of transactions in this category was similarly small, while for residential tax due, the percentages have risen from the 4% seen in April to June 2018 (not shown in Figure 6). 

The percentage of transactions with a value £400,001 to £750,000 generally rose in most quarters, from 3% in April to June 2018 to 9% in October to December 2023. Similarly the percentage of residential tax due contributed by these transactions generally rose from 24% in April to June 2018 to 37% in October to December 2023.

Non-residential transactions by value

For each tax band, Figures 7 and 8 show the quarterly trends in the number of non-residential transactions and tax due. There are 4 tax bands for the non-rental value. We have combined the smallest 2 bands here to show results for properties with a non-rental value less than £250,000.

Figure 7: Number of non-residential transactions, by value and quarter the transaction was effective

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Description of Figure 7: The line chart shows that the number of non-residential transactions in the four bands presented fell substantially in April to June 2020. The numbers of transactions recovered in the following quarters while smaller fluctuations have been seen in the past three years.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and non-residential transaction value on StatsWales

[Note 1] A small number of newly granted leases have both a premium paid and a rental value. Therefore these transactions are included twice in Figure 7, under both the non-rental value and the rental value.

[p] The values for October to December 2023 are provisional and will be revised in a future publication.

[r] The values for July to September 2023 have been revised in this publication.

Figure 8: Tax due on non-residential transactions, by value and quarter the transaction was effective [£ million]

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Description of Figure 8: The line chart shows that the quarterly tax due from non-rental value of properties over £1 million was considerably higher in the six quarters from April 2021 to September 2022, than in the five quarters since or the preceding quarters. For all quarters, the tax due from this category was considerably higher than the other two non-rental bands presented and the rental value.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and non-residential transaction value on StatsWales

[p] The values for October to December 2023 are provisional and will be revised in a future publication.

[r] The values for July to September 2023 have been revised in this publication.

Figure 9: Percentage of tax due on non-residential transactions in each value band, October to December 2023 [provisional]

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Description of Figure 9: The bar chart shows that in October to December 2023, nearly half of non-residential transactions had a non-rental value of up to and including £250,000, with those transactions contributing 1% of non-residential tax due. The 7% of non-residential transactions with a non-rental value of more than £1 million contributed nearly two-thirds of tax due. Just over a quarter of non-residential transactions had a rental value associated with the transaction, contributing 14% of non-residential tax.

Source: LTT statistics by time period and non-residential transaction value on StatsWales (includes data back to April 2018, not presented above)

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This release presents geographic breakdowns for residential LTT. We present data for January to December 2023 (extracted as at January 2024) and make comparisons with data for January to December 2022 (extracted at January 2023). More detailed data for local authorities, National Parks and Senedd constituencies is available on StatsWales.

On StatsWales, we are now publishing local area data for the years ending June, September, December and March. In future quarterly releases, we will add data for the new time period and refresh data for all existing time periods.

We have not provided breakdowns by month or quarter, as there would be too few transactions in most local authorities to provide reliable statistics.

The local authority in which the transaction occurs is a mandatory question on the tax return, whereas the postcode where the transaction occurs is an optional question. We have combined these two pieces of information to derive our local authority statistics. Further information on this process and the data quality is available in our key quality information for LTT statistics.

Where supplied, the postcode on the tax return is used to derive the Senedd constituency, National Park, or built-up area. 

Figure 10: Higher rates transactions as a percentage of all residential transactions, by local authority and National Park, January to December 2023 and January to December 2022

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Description of Figure 10: The chart shows that higher rates transactions were relatively higher in authorities located in the northern and western parts of Wales. In the year to December 2023, there has been reduced higher rates activity in some areas of Wales, particularly in some of the western or northern local authorities.

Source: Residential LTT statistics by measure and local authority on StatsWales (includes data back to April 2018, not presented above)

Residential LTT statistics by measure and National Park on StatsWales (includes data back to April 2018, not presented above)

Higher rates transactions were relatively higher in authorities located in the northern and western parts of Wales. The highest percentages were seen in Isle of Anglesey (34%), Gwynedd (31%) and Merthyr Tydfil (29%).

The lowest percentages were seen in Torfaen (14%) and Flintshire (15%).

For January to December 2023, the ordering for most local authorities in this chart remains similar to the previous year (data extracted in January 2023). However, Isle of Anglesey now has the highest percentage whereas in previous periods, this was Gwynedd. Although the reasons for the rise in the Isle of Anglesey percentage remain unclear, we can see this recent trend is due to higher rates activity in the area remaining relatively flat despite the more general fall in residential transactions that has impacted every area of Wales. It is not due to an overall rise in higher rate transactions there.

In terms of percentage points, the local authorities with the largest changes were:

• Wrexham (increase of 4 percentage points)
• Gwynedd, Conwy and Torfaen (each with a decrease of 3 percentage points)
• Isle of Anglesey and Carmarthenshire (each with an increase of 3 percentage points)

The corresponding changes with the previous year for the three National Parks were:

• Pembrokeshire Coast: 49% to 46%, a decrease of 2 percentage points
• Eryri: 39% to 35%, a decrease of 4 percentage points
• Bannau Brycheiniog: 23% to 21%, a decrease of 2 percentage points

While it is not currently possible to identify which higher rates transactions were second homes, the decreases shown above for certain local authorities in the western or northern parts of Wales could suggest a slowing in the rates of purchasing for new or existing second homes.

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Various other data are not analysed in this release but we publish this data in the spreadsheet accompanying this release and on StatsWales.

Tax due on additional transactions which were untypically large or with restricted detail

Certain transactions have been excluded from the statistics reported in this release. This includes:

• untypically large transactions, which relates to the 2019-20 purchase by Transport for Wales of the Core Valley Line rail asset from Network Rail. £28.2 million of tax was due and paid on this transaction.
• a small number of low-value transactions where we are unable to provide any information other than the total tax figure in the year. This is because there is a risk of revealing details of the individual transactions. 

Statistics on annual tax due for these transactions is published on StatsWales:

LTT statistics on total tax due including transactions with restricted detail on StatsWales

Reliefs

Taxpayers can claim reliefs on both residential and non-residential transactions. Reliefs reduce the amount of tax due when certain conditions are met. More than one relief can be applied to a single transaction. 

Reliefs may reduce the tax due:

• to zero, known as a full relief
• or by a certain percentage or amount, known as a partial relief

Statistics on reliefs are published in the spreadsheet accompanying this release and on StatsWales:

LTT statistics on reliefs impacting on tax by measure and transaction type on StatsWales

Refunds of the higher rates of residential tax

When a taxpayer claims a refund for higher rates residential LTT, the original transaction is amended to a main rate residential LTT transaction. Refund statistics on a variety of bases are published in the spreadsheet accompanying this release and on StatsWales:

LTT statistics on higher rate refunds by original transaction date on StatsWales

LTT statistics on higher rate refunds by original transaction date and refund approved date on StatsWales

LTT statistics on tax paid and higher rate refunds (cash basis) on StatsWales

Tax paid

We publish statistics on the amount of tax paid in the spreadsheet accompanying this release and on StatsWales:

LTT statistics on tax paid and higher rate refunds (cash basis) on StatsWales

Analysis of revisions to our published estimates

Our first estimates of transactions and tax due for a particular month are published as provisional estimates. In subsequent releases, we regularly revise those estimates and those for earlier months. The percentage changes we see between first and second estimates for a particular month are now relatively small. These percentages are shown in the spreadsheet accompanying this release.

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