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The 2014-based projections estimate the number of households and assume that past trends in births, deaths, and migration continue.

The assumptions are generally based on membership rates within the different household types. The assumptions are based on past trends and project what households numbers will occur if these trends continue. As they are trend-based they become less certain the further they are carried forward.

Main points

  • The number of households in Wales between 2014 and 2039 is projected to increase by 10% from 1.33 million to 1.47 million. 
  • Cardiff is projected to increase the most, up 32% with Swansea the next largest (at 17%). 
  • Powys is the only local authority where there is projected to be a fall in the number of households (down 2%).
  • One-person households are the most common household type over the whole projection period, with a projected 27% increase by 2039. 
  • One-person households are projected to increase from 31% of all households to 36%.
  • Average household size is projected to decrease from 2.29 persons per household to 2.17.
  • Compared to the last set of household projections, there is little difference to 2019, after that the gap widens, with the difference at 2031 being 2% lower in the 2014 based projections
  • Using the lower and higher variants the number of households in Wales is projected to grow to between 1.40 and 1.44 million by 2029, a difference of 37,000 households. 
  • Using the ten-year average migration assumption the number of households is projected to increase to 1.45 by 2029; using the zero migration assumption the number is projected to decrease to 1.40 million.


Local authority household projections, 2014-based , file type: PDF, file size: 1 MB

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Martin Parry

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