Persistent poverty: 2024

Data on persistent poverty in Wales comes from Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and is based on the Understanding Society longitudinal survey dataset. In their Income Dynamics report (DWP) DWP define a person to be in persistent poverty if he or she is in relative income poverty in at least 3 out of 4 consecutive years.

The figures below are subject to future revisions to improve data quality. New information can be collected from respondents which affects their data in earlier years. For this reason users should refer to the latest DWP Income Dynamics report for data on previous periods.

• An individual in Wales had a 14% chance of being in persistent poverty between 2020 and 2024 (after housing costs were paid).
• The likelihood of being in persistent poverty varies by region/country. In England and Scotland, the figure was 11% and in Northern Ireland 9% (after housing costs were paid).
• A child in Wales had a 23% likelihood of being in persistent poverty between 2020 and 2024 (after housing costs were paid).
• This was higher than the likelihood for England (14%), Scotland (17%) and Northern Ireland (13%).
• A working age adult in Wales had a 12% likelihood of being in persistent poverty between 2020 and 2024 (after housing costs were paid).
• This was higher than in England and Scotland (10%) and Northern Ireland at 9%.
• A pensioner living in Wales between 2020 and 2024 had an 13% likelihood of being in persistent poverty (after housing costs were paid).
• This was higher than the likelihood in England and Scotland (both at 9%) and Northern Ireland (5%). 

As these statistics are based on survey data, they are estimates and subject to uncertainty. Care should be taken in interpreting change over time or differences between sub-groups, which may reflect sampling variation rather than real differences. This is particularly true over the short term, for groups with smaller sample sizes, and where percentage point differences are small. 

Survey attrition and small sample sizes are likely to have contributed to recent volatility in persistent low-income rates for children in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. While the headline measure uses a 60% median income threshold, estimates at 70% (included in DWP’s income dynamics report) show a more stable trend. This suggests many children live in households with incomes close to the 60% threshold, meaning small changes in the threshold can lead to relatively large changes in rates of persistent poverty.

To address issues including attrition, a general population sample boost (Understanding Society) was introduced in Wave 14 (2022 and 2023). This will feed into persistent low‑income estimates from the 2028 report and is already reflected in median income measures. The potential impact of this is detailed in DWP’s report. 

Recent weighting revisions made by the survey owners, the University of Essex, have led to an unusual amount of revision in some Wave 14 (2022 and 2023) figures. Further revisions are likely when the next wave of data is released.

Statistician: Inclusion Statistics
Email: stats.inclusion@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099