Patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy: September 2018 to August 2024

A report looking at patterns in attainment in reading and numeracy, using national-level data from the personalised assessments (Hwb). Personalised assessments are taken by learners in Year 2 to Year 9 in maintained schools in Wales.

This report follows the same format as the June 2024 statistical release of personalised assessment data, updated with 2023/24 data. It presents information on reading and numeracy attainment changes over time, with the addition of analysis by sex, the gap between learners eligible for free school meals and their peers, and ethnicity. The analysis has been carried out using anonymised, national-level data from the personalised assessments, up to the end of the 2023/24 school year.

Personalised assessments in Reading and Numeracy are online assessments designed to help support development of reading and numeracy skills. They are used in schools as one of a range of approaches to support progression (Hwb) as part of Curriculum for Wales. Annual personalised assessments are mandatory for learners in Years 2 to 9 in maintained schools. The assessments comprise: Numeracy which is taken in two parts - Numeracy (Procedural) and Numeracy (Reasoning); Reading in Welsh and English (see note on timing of introduction of personalised assessments below, and further information on each assessment and the mandatory requirements in the main section of this report).

The assessments provide schools with information on the reading and numeracy skills of individual learners and an understanding of strengths and areas for improvement in these skills. Following completion of assessments, schools have access to feedback on skills, progress, and a range of reports to help plan teaching and learning. The Welsh Government is clear that the purpose of these assessments is to support progression in learning, and that the assessment outcomes are not to be used for accountability purposes at any level. The publication of this report does not involve any change for schools; personalised assessments will continue to be taken in the same way and used alongside other forms of assessment designed by schools in accordance with the Curriculum for Wales framework. While the purpose of personalised assessments is to support progress at an individual level, anonymised data from personalised assessments can also provide some information on reading and numeracy skills at a national level, showing changes in attainment over time and differences between demographic groups.

Therefore, the Welsh Government has compiled this report to assist in understanding patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy over time and the potential impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This report uses anonymised data from personalised assessments taken between 2018/19 (the introduction of the first assessment) and 2023/24. Following the publication of this report, releases will be issued which will eventually show trends and provide important information on learners' development of skills over time, at a national level.

The releases will form part of a wider range of qualitative and quantitative national-level information on learner achievement, complementing, for example our international studies, PISA and (in the future) PIRLS (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study) and TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) as well as our national Key Stage 4 outcomes.

A note on timing and data availability

Personalised assessments were phased in over a period of four academic years:

• Numeracy (Procedural) from 2018/19
• Reading in Welsh and English from 2019/20
• Numeracy (Reasoning) from 2021/22

This report uses data from 2018/19 to 2023/24. However, COVID-19 disruption has resulted in a gap in data for 2019/20, the year when administration of the assessments was most impacted by the pandemic. Whilst some personalised assessments were taken during this period, 2019/20 is not included in this analysis due to insufficient data being available.

This section of the report compares the attainment of learners in a given year group over several academic years. For example, it compares the attainment of Year 3 learners in the Numeracy (Procedural) assessment in 2018/19, 2020/21, 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24. Therefore, for a given year group, different cohorts of children constitute the dataset at different points in time.

For the purposes of this report, to make comparisons at a national level, we express average higher or lower attainment in terms of months. We do this for ease of understanding and because of the nature of the assessments, which do not have a common grading scale of the type used for examinations, for example.  Please note that we round all data to the nearest month and in some cases this will mean that a displayed total may not equal the sum of the figures that make up that total. When interpreting the figures in this report, it is important to remember that younger learners have a higher rate of progress year-on-year, in absolute terms, than older learners (see the technical annex for further information).

In the June 2024 release - Patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy: September 2018 to August 2023 - we used 2022/23 as a consistent year of reference across all subjects. This gave us a common reference point to calculate months’ progress and examine demographic differences by subject, an important factor considering the pre/post-pandemic introduction of the different assessments. In this report we continue with this approach and use 2022/23 as the reference year for months’ progress calculations, and as a benchmark of the difference between years. Keeping the reference year consistent makes comparison between reports easier, as the charts will appear similar to those in the June 2024 report and allow us to see changes more clearly.

This report differs from previous releases in that it is based on an updated assessment question difficulty scale. This new scale was introduced in 2023/24 for all assessments to ensure the difficulty estimate for each question were as up-to-date and as representative of the population of learners in Wales as possible, using data that is now available on how learners respond to these questions. Previously, items were assigned a level of difficulty that’s calculated or calibrated based on item responses from learners and at the point each separate assessment was rolled out, which was staggered over some years. This update was necessary to ensure that teachers, learners and parents continue to receive the highest quality information from these assessments to inform teaching and learning.

Implementing this change has impacted on the data in this release. To allow a fairer comparison between 2023/24, which uses the new difficulty scale, and other years, the new scale has to be retrospectively applied to all previous years. As a result, the progress data shown in this release is of a higher quality than in previous releases. This approach does mean that we see some changes in the months’ progress charts or, in a few cases, a switch in direction to some bars in the graph. More information is available in the quality and methodology information section below.

The impacts on learning during and after the pandemic have been the subject of several studies in the UK and internationally – see the evidence section of the document linked to this report. The patterns seen in Wales are similar to the research findings in other countries.

A note on interpreting the figures in this section can be found in the linked technical annex. The figures show patterns in average attainment for Years 3, 6 and 9; data for other year groups is available in the accompanying spreadsheet.

In the following sections the assessments are listed in order of their introduction in schools in Wales. It should be noted that this report shows patterns over a relatively short period since the introduction of personalised assessments, and that further years’ data will be required to make judgements on longer term trends. Lower take up of assessments during 2020/21, the year which saw continued disruption during and following the pandemic, may also prove to be a factor for further consideration once future years’ data becomes available on trends.

Numeracy (Procedural)

The Numeracy assessment is taken in two parts. The Numeracy (Procedural) assessment focuses on numerical facts and procedures – the numerical ‘tools’ that are needed to apply numeracy within a range of contexts. It is taken annually by all learners in Years 2 to 9. This assessment was introduced in the 2018/19 academic year and is the only assessment for which data is available both before and after the disruption caused by COVID-19.

Figure 1: Numeracy (Procedural): difference in attainment in 2018/19, 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2023/24 relative to 2022/23, in months [Note 1]

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Description of Figure 1: A bar chart showing the average attainment in the Numeracy (Procedural) assessments of the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in 2018/19, 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2023/24. Average attainment is presented as months higher or lower than the attainment of the same year group in 2022/23.

[Note 1] Performance in 2022/23 is denoted by the zero line on the graph.  2019/20 is not included in the chart due to insufficient data in the year most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main points

• For Year 3 and Year 6 there was an improvement in attainment in 2023/24, equivalent to 5 and 7 months respectively, relative to 2022/23.
• For Year 9, there was no marked improvement in 2023/24, and attainment values remain at levels similar to 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23.
• Overall, for Numeracy (Procedural) assessments there was lower attainment in 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23 relative to 2018/19, the three years following on from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, across year groups (Years 3, Year 6 and Year 9).
• Relative to 2022/23, attainment in 2018/19 was 8 months higher for Year 3, 14 months higher for Year 6 and 7 months higher for Year 9.

Summary

In 2023/24 there is some recovery in attainment in Numeracy (Procedural) following a decline in the academic years directly following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Years 3 and 6 have shown the greatest degree of recovery in 2023/24, whereas Year 9 has shown the least recovery to 2018/19 levels of attainment.

Welsh Reading

The Welsh Reading personalised assessments focus on how well learners understand a text in Welsh and whether they are able to make judgements about what they are reading. The Welsh Reading assessment is taken annually by learners in Years 2 to 9 whose learning is through the medium of Welsh. The assessment was introduced in the 2019/20 academic year, however there was insufficient data available for that year due to the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and therefore 2019/20 has not been included in this analysis.

Figure 2: Welsh Reading: difference in attainment in 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2023/24 relative to 2022/23, in months [Note 1]

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Description of Figure 2: A bar chart showing the average attainment in the Welsh Reading assessments of the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2023/24. Average attainment is presented as months higher or lower than the attainment of the same year group in 2022/23.

[Note 1] Performance in 2022/23 is denoted by the zero line on the graph.  2019/20 is not included in the chart due to insufficient data in the year most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main points

• Recovery is present across year groups 3 to 9 in 2023/24.  Attainment in 2023/24 was equivalent to 3 months higher for Year 3, 4 months higher for Year 6 and 2 months higher for Year 9 compared to 2022/23.
• All Year groups show a decline in attainment in the years following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The older year groups are particularly affected, with 2020/21 attainment being 7 months higher for Year 3, 12 months higher for Year 6 and 24 months higher for Years 9, compared to 2022/23.

Summary

There is a slight recovery in attainment in Welsh Reading 2023/24 following a decline between 2020/21 and 2022/23.  Attainment has not yet reached 2020/21 levels in any of the year groups.

English Reading

The English Reading personalised assessments focus on how well learners understand a text and whether they are able to make judgements about what they are reading in English. The English Reading assessment is taken annually by learners in Years 2 to 9 whose learning is through the medium of English. For learners whose learning is through the medium of Welsh, the English Reading personalised assessment is optional in Years 2 and 3 and mandatory in Years 4 to 9. The English Reading online assessment was introduced in the 2019/20 academic year, however there was insufficient data available for that year due to the disruption caused by COVID-19.

Figure 3: English Reading: difference in attainment in 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2023/24 relative to 2022/23, in months [Note 1]

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Description of Figure 3: A bar chart showing the average attainment in the English Reading assessments of the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2023/24. Average attainment is presented as months higher or lower than the attainment of the same year group in 2022/23.

[Note 1] Performance in 2022/23 is denoted by the zero line on the graph. Note that while the Reading assessments were introduced in 2019/20, there is insufficient data for this first year which was the period most impacted by disruption due to COVID-19; therefore, only data for the subsequent three years is used.

Main points

• Attainment was higher for all year groups in English Reading in 2023/24 compared to 2022/23 and more so for younger year groups than older year groups.
• Attainment in 2023/24 was equivalent to 4 months higher for Year 3, 3 months higher for Year 6 and 1 month higher in Year 9 compared to 2022/23.
• In 2023/24, attainment for Year 3 was higher than both 2020/21 and 2021/22, a sustained improvement in attainment not seen in other assessments or year groups.
• English Reading showed a decline in attainment between 2020/21 and 2022/23 with older year groups being particularly affected.  For Year 9, 2020/21 levels of attainment were 11 months higher than in 2022/23.

Summary

There is recovery in attainment for all year groups in 2023/24 following a decline between 2020/21 and 2022/23. Attainment in Year 3 now being higher than both 2020/21 and 2021/22, a trend not seen in other year groups on personalised assessments.  Attainment in Year 6 and 9 remains lower in 2023/24 than in 2020/21.

Numeracy (Reasoning)

The Numeracy (Reasoning) personalised assessment focuses on how well learners can use and apply what they know to solve numerical problems. It is taken annually by learners in Years 2 to 9. It was the last assessment to be introduced in the phased roll-out, and data is available for 3 academic years only: 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Figure 4: Numeracy (Reasoning): difference in attainment in 2021/22 and 2023/24 relative to 2022/23, in months [Note 1]

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Description of Figure 4: A bar chart showing the average attainment in the Numeracy (Reasoning) assessments of the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in 2021/22 and 2023/24. Average attainment is presented as months higher or lower than the attainment of the same year group in 2022/23.

[Note 1] Performance in 2022/23 is denoted by the zero line on the graph.

Main points

• In 2023/24 for Year 3 and Year 6 there was an improvement in attainment in Numeracy (Reasoning) equivalent to 2 and 3 months, respectively, relative to 2022/23.
• For Year 9 there was a slight decline in attainment of 1 month in 2023/24, relative to 2022/23, although attainment has been relatively stable between 2021/22 and 2023/24.

Summary

Attainment for Numeracy (Reasoning) has been relatively stable between 2021/22 and 2023/24. It is harder to make a judgement on longer term trends for this assessment as there is less data available.

This section of the report breaks down the attainment shown in the above section by sex. Sex is defined in this context as biological sex at birth.  It compares the difference in attainment, expressed in months, achieved by males and females for each academic year, for selected year groups. An example of how this breakdown of attainment is worked out can be found in a linked document Technical Annex.

The figures below show patterns for Years 3, 6 and 9 for each of the subjects; data for other year groups is available in the accompanying dataset. Each chart presents the years for which each assessment was in place, except for the year 2019/20 for which there was insufficient data due to the disruption caused by COVID-19.

Numeracy (Procedural)

Figure 5: Numeracy (Procedural): Difference in attainment in 2018/19 to 2023/24 between females and males, in months

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Description of Figure 5: A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment between females and males in Numeracy (Procedural), for the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in each academic year. Average attainment difference is presented as females minus males (with the difference expressed in months).  Bars to the right of zero indicate that females outperform males and bars to the left of zero indicate that males outperform females.

Main points

• Attainment difference values consistently show the attainment of males to be higher than that of females.
• The gap between males and females widens for older year groups.
• In 2023/24 the gap shrank slightly to 4 months for Year 3, 8 months for Year 6, and 10 months for Year 9.
• The gap had widened over time between 2018/19 and 2022/23, from 2 to 5 months in Year 3, 4 to 9 months in Year 6, and 5 to 11 months in Year 9.

Summary

In Numeracy (Procedural) assessments average attainment for males is higher than for females with the size of the gap increasing for older age groups. The gap between males and females has narrowed in 2023/24 after having widened during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Welsh Reading

Figure 6: Welsh Reading: Difference in attainment in 2020/21 to 2023/24 between females and males, in months

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Description of Figure 6: A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment between females and males in Welsh Reading, for the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in each academic year. Average attainment difference is presented as females minus males (with the difference expressed in months). Bars to the right of zero indicate that females outperform males and bars to the left of zero indicate that males outperform females.

Main points

• Attainment difference values consistently show the average attainment of females to be higher than that of males for Welsh Reading.
• The attainment gap grows larger for older year groups.
• The attainment gap between males and females shrank slightly for Year groups 3 and 6 between 2020/21 and 2023/24, from 9 to 7 months in Year 3, and from 12 to 11 months in Year 6.
• In 2023/24 the attainment gap for Year 9 shrank from a high point in 2022/23 of 26 months to 19 months. This indicates a return to a similar level of 18 months difference observed in 2020/21.

Summary

Females continue to achieve higher attainment than males and in 2023/24, with larger gaps seen amongst learners in years 7 to 9.

English Reading

Figure 7: English Reading: Difference in attainment in 2020/21 to 2023/24 between females and males, in months

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Description of Figure 7: A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment between females and males in English Reading, for the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in each academic year. Average attainment difference is presented as females minus males (with the difference expressed in months). Bars to the right of zero indicate that females outperform males and bars to the left of zero indicate that males outperform females.

Main points

• Attainment difference values consistently show the average attainment of females to be higher than that of males for English Reading.
• The attainment gap grows larger for older year groups.
• For Year 3, the gap closed slightly between 2020/21 and 2023/24, from 5 months to 4 months.
• For Year 6, the gap closed slightly to 9 months in both 2021/22 and 2022/23 relative to 10 months in 2020/21 before widening again in 2023/24 back to 10 months.
• For Year 9, the gap widened slightly between 2020/21 and 2023/24, from 13 to 15 months.

Summary

The gap in attainment between males and females narrowed in 2023/24 for the younger year groups. However, the gap has increased in 2023/24 for older year groups.

Numeracy (Reasoning)

Figure 8: Numeracy (Reasoning): Difference in attainment in 2021/22 to 2023/24 between females and males, in months

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Description of Figure 8: A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment between females and males in Numeracy (Reasoning), for the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in each academic year. Average attainment difference is presented as females minus males (with the difference expressed in months). Bars to the right of zero indicate that females outperform males and bars to the left of zero indicate that males outperform females.

Main points

• Attainment difference values consistently show the average attainment of males to be higher than that of females for Numeracy (Reasoning).
• The attainment gap grows larger for older year groups.
• For Year 3, the attainment gap has grown slightly between 2021/22 and 2023/24, from 3 months to 4 months.
• For Year 6, the attainment gap remained at a steady 6 months for all academic years available.
• For Year 9, the attainment gap grew and then shrank slightly over time. In year 2021/22 the gap was 8 months, by 2022/23 it had risen to 9 months and by 2023/24 it had shrunk slightly to 7 months.

Summary

The attainment difference between males and females remained relatively stable between 2021/22 to 2023/24.

Summary: attainment differences in 2018/19 to 2023/24 between females and males

The typical differences in outcomes between the sexes that have been widely observed across many studies and assessments of females outperforming males on Reading assessments, and males outperforming females on Numerical assessments were also observed here on the National Personalised Assessments in Wales. These gaps manifested in Year 3 and grew across all assessments in the intervening years up to Year 9.

For the Numeracy (Procedural) assessment we found that the attainment gap grew between males and females following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and then shrank down again slightly in 2023/24.

This section of the release breaks down the attainment shown in the first section by free school meals (FSM) eligibility and reports, expressed in ‘months’, the difference in attainment between, learners who are eligible (eFSM) and learners who are not eligible for free school meals (nFSM). This is done in each academic year, for selected year groups.  An example of how this breakdown of attainment is worked out can be found in the linked document.

Learners can currently be eligible for FSM if their parents or guardians are in receipt of certain means-tested benefits or support payments, or through the transitional protection scheme, or the universal primary free school meal policy. For this release we only include learners who are eligible if their parents or guardians are in receipt of certain means-tested benefits or support payments.

The figures below show patterns in attainment difference for Years 3, 6 and 9 for all subjects; data for other year groups is available in the accompanying dataset. Each chart presents the years for which each assessment was in place, except for the year 2019/20 for which there was insufficient data due to the disruption caused by COVID-19.

Numeracy (Procedural)

Figure 9: Numeracy (Procedural): difference in attainment in 2018/19 to 2023/24 between learners eligible (eFSM) and not eligible (nFSM) for free school meals, in months

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Description of Figure 9: A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment between learners eligible for Free School Meals (eFSM) and learners not eligible for Free School Meals (nFSM) in Numeracy (Procedural), for the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in each academic year. Average attainment difference is presented as nFSM minus eFSM, in months. Bars to the right of zero indicate that nFSM learners outperform eFSM learners, and bars to the left of zero indicate that eFSM learners outperform nFSM.

Main points

• Attainment difference values consistently show that the average attainment of nFSM learners is higher than that of eFSM learners.
• For older learners the FSM gap widened in the years following the onset of COVID-19 pandemic before shrinking down again. In 2018/19 the gap was 21 months for Year 6 and 23 months for Year 9. By 2021/22 it had reached 25 months for both Year 6 and 9, and then by 2023/24 it was 23 months for both Year 6 and 9.
• Across all academic years, the attainment gap increases markedly at Year 6 and then settles to a similar or slightly higher level in Year 9. In 2023/24, the attainment gap in Year 3 widened slightly to 13 months, from 11 months in 2022/23. 

Summary

In 2023/24 for Numeracy (Procedural) the attainment gap for eligibility for FSM had returned to its 2018/19 size for the majority of year groups from 2 through to 9, having grown in size in the years following the onset of COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023/24 the gap in attainment is over 12 months for all year groups and increases as learners get older.

Welsh Reading

Figure 10: Welsh Reading: difference in attainment in 2020/21 to 2023/24 between learners eligible (eFSM) and not eligible (nFSM) for free school meals, in months

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Description of Figure 10: A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment between eFSM and nFSM learners in Welsh Reading, for the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in each academic year. Average attainment difference is presented as nFSM minus eFSM learners, in months. Bars to the right of zero indicate that nFSM learners outperform eFSM learners, and bars to the left of zero indicate that eFSM learners outperform nFSM.

Main points

• Attainment difference values consistently show that the average attainment of nFSM learners is higher than that of eFSM learners.
• The gap widens for the older year groups; in 2023/24 it is 25 months for Year 3, for Year 6 it is 29 months and 37 months for Year 9.

Summary

In 2023/24 for Welsh Reading the attainment difference for FSM was around the levels seen in 2020/21. The gap was at least 24 months for all age groups in 2023/24.

English Reading

Figure 11: English Reading: difference in attainment in 2020/21 to 2023/24 between learners eligible (eFSM) and not eligible (nFSM) for free school meals, in months

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Description of Figure 11: A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment between eFSM and nFSM learners in English Reading, for the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in each academic year. Average attainment difference is presented as nFSM minus eFSM learners, in months. Bars to the right of zero indicate that nFSM learners outperform eFSM learners, and bars to the left of zero indicate eFSM learners outperform nFSM.

Main points

• Attainment difference values consistently show that the average attainment of nFSM learners is higher than that of eFSM learners.
• The gap grows larger for the older year groups; in 2023/24 it is 12 months in Year 3, 25 months in Year 6 and 32 months in Year 9. The gap increases steadily between years 2 and 7 and then decreases in years 8 and 9, as shown in the underlying data for Figure 11.

Summary

For English Reading, the FSM gap is variable across academic years for each year group, with no clear trend of it increasing or decreasing across time. The gap remains higher than 12 months for each year group rising to 32 months for year 9 in 2023/24.

Numeracy (Reasoning)

Figure 12: Numeracy (Reasoning): difference in attainment in 2021/22 to 2023/24 between learners eligible (eFSM) and not eligible (nFSM) for free school meals, in months

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Description of Figure 12: A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment between eFSM and nFSM learners in Numeracy (Reasoning), for the cohort of learners who were in Year 3, 6, or 9 in each academic year. Average attainment difference is presented as nFSM minus eFSM learners, in months. Bars to the right of zero indicate that nFSM learners outperform eFSM learners, and bars to the left of zero indicate that eFSM learners outperform nFSM.

Main points

• Attainment difference values consistently show the average attainment of nFSM learners to be higher than that of eFSM learners.
• The attainment gap grows larger for older year groups; in 2023/24 it is 14 months in Year 3, 27 months in Year 6 and 27 months in Year 9.

Summary

In Numeracy (Reasoning) the gap has increased slightly through the successive academic years up to 2023/24 for Year 3, though has decreased slightly for Year 6 and 9.  The gap remains higher than 12 months for each year group.

Summary: Attainment differences in 2018/19 to 2023/24 between learners eligible (eFSM) and not eligible (nFSM) for free school meals

The typical advantage gap differences that have been widely observed across many studies are reflected here with the attainment of Free School Meals eligible learners being significantly below that of learners Not Eligible for Free School Meals. These gaps manifested at Year 3 and grew across all assessments in the intervening years up to Year 9.

To examine the effects of ethnicity on attainment, a similar approach was taken to the other analyses of demographic variables in previous sections of this report by comparing individual ethnic groups against a reference ethnic group For Ethnicity analysis we chose White – British 2022/23 as the reference group and year. This was because White – British is the largest ethnic group in Wales, providing a stable baseline to compare other groups. The academic year 2022/23 was chosen as this was the same one chosen for other analyses. Due to small numbers of learners in some ethnic groups, data in Wales are summarised for 19 major ethnic groups in Wales and to focus this section we present only those that showed a statistically significant difference from White – British learners. Point 0 on the vertical axis represents “White – British” learners in 2022/23, and we also show “White - British” attainment in other academic years in relation to this. The complete set of outcomes by ethnicity can be found in the data tables that accompany this report.

Differences based on 10 or fewer cases have been suppressed to make protect the confidentiality of data about individual learners. In the graphs’ below suppressed values are indicated with an “S” symbol, while in the data tables they are indicated with a “-“ value. The graphs below only include ethnic groups where there was a statistically significant difference in outcomes between that ethnic group and ‘White – British’. Therefore there may be different ethnic groups shown in each chart. Where an ethnic group is not shown then their outcomes were not statistically different to the outcomes of ‘White – British’ learners.

Numeracy (Procedural)

Figure 13: Numeracy (Procedural): Difference in attainment in 2018/19 to 2023/24 by ethnicity, in months

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Description of Figure 13. A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment for Numeracy (Procedural) assessments between different ethnic groups and “White – British” learners in 2022/23. Positive differences above the 0 point on the vertical axis indicate that the ethnic group is outperforming “White – British” learners in 2022/23, while a negative difference indicates that the group of learners are performing below the level of this reference group.

Main points

• Gypsy, Roma and Traveller learners were found to perform significantly below the level of the 2022/23 cohort of White British learners.
• Any other Asian background, Any other Mixed background, Any other White background, Any other ethnic background, Bangladeshi, Chinese or Chinese British, Indian, Pakistani, Ethnicity unknown or not stated, and White and Asian learners performed significantly higher than the 2022/23 cohort of White British learners across all academic years shown.
• Chinese or Chinese British and Indian learners have the highest levels of attainment and Gypsy, Roma and Traveller learners have the lowest levels of attainment across all assessments when compared to 2022/23 White - British learners.

Welsh Reading

Figure 14: Welsh Reading: Difference in attainment in 2020/21 to 2023/24 by ethnicity, in months [Note 1]

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Description of Figure 14. A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment for Welsh Reading assessments between different ethnic groups and “White – British” learners in 2022/23. Positive differences above the 0 point on the vertical axis indicate that the ethnic group is outperforming “White – British” learners in 2022/23, while a negative difference indicates that the group of learners are performing below the level of this reference group.

[Note 1] the ”[c]” in figure 14 denotes that data item is disclosive or not sufficiently robust for publication.

Main points

• Any other Ethnic Background, Caribbean and Gypsy learners performed below the level of the 2022/23 cohort of White British learners.
• Any other White background, Ethnicity unknown or not stated, White – British and White and Asian Learners performed above the level of the 2022/23 cohort of White British learners.

English Reading

Figure 15: English Reading: Difference in attainment in 2020/21 to 2023/24 by ethnicity, in months

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Description of Figure 15. A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment for English Reading assessments between different ethnic groups and “White – British” learners in 2022/23. Positive differences above the 0 point on the vertical axis indicate that the ethnic group is outperforming “White – British” learners in 2022/23, while a negative difference indicates that the group of learners are performing below the level of this reference group.

Main points

• Learners from Any other ethnic background, Gypsy, Roma and Traveller learners all perform below the level of the 2022/23 cohort of “White – British Learners”.
• Any other Mixed background, Chinese or Chinese British, Indian, Ethnicity unknown or not stated, White and Asian and White and Black African learners all performed higher than the 2022/23 cohort of “White – British Learners”.
• In general, Chinese or Chinese British and Indian learners have the highest levels of attainment and Gypsy, Roma and Traveller learners have the lowest levels of attainment across all assessments when compared to 2022/23 White - British learners.

Numeracy (Reasoning)

Figure 16: Numeracy (Reasoning): Difference in attainment in 2021/22 to 2023/24 by ethnicity, in months

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Description of Figure 16. A bar chart showing the average difference in attainment for Numeracy (Reasoning) between different ethnic groups and “White – British” learners in 2022/23. Positive differences above the 0 point on the vertical axis indicate that the ethnic group is outperforming “White – British” learners in 2022/23, while a negative difference indicates that the group of learners are performing below the level of this reference group.

Main points

• Learners from African, Any Other Ethnic Background, Gypsy, Roma, Traveller and White and Black Caribbean learners all perform below the level of the 2022/23 cohort of White – British learners.
• Any other Mixed background, Any other White background, Chinese or Chinese British, Indian, and White and Asian learners all performed above the level of the 2022/23 cohort of “White – British Learners”.

Summary of the difference in attainment by ethnicity

• In general, Chinese or Chinese British learners and Indian learners have the highest attainment levels and learners who are Gypsy, Roma or Traveller have the lowest attainment levels across all assessments compared to White - British learners in 2022/23.

This is the third release on reading and numeracy based on national-level data from personalised assessments. It is intended that further releases using personalised assessment data will be made.

Updated question difficulty scales

This report differs from previous releases in that it is based on an updated question difficulty scale. Question difficulty scales are updated regularly to give teachers and learners the most accurate information available. As we collect more information from the personalised assessments, our understanding of the ability of year groups will grow and item difficulties can be updated to reflect this new information. A new difficulty scale was introduced in 2023/24 to ensure the difficulty estimates for each assessment question were as up-to-date and as representative of the population of learners in Wales as possible. Previously, items were calibrated at the point each assessment was rolled out, which was staggered over a number of years. To allow fair comparison between 2023/24, which uses the new scale, and other years, the new scale has to be retrospectively applied to all previous years. As a result, we will see some changes in the months’ progress data shown in the charts and in a few cases a change in direction to some bars. Additional information can be found in the Updating the item difficulty scale section in the technical annex.

Below is a summary of changes that differ notably from the June 2024 - Patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy: September 2018 to August 2023 - release as a result of applying an updated difficulty scale. The accompanying spreadsheet includes the scale of the changes for all year groups and the changes in gaps between males and females and FSM and nFSM learners. It is worth noting that older learners will generally make less progress in absolute terms than younger learners. Therefore, when the difficulty scale was updated, changes to months’ progress made for older learners will appear amplified:

• Numeracy (Procedural): we observed a change of 9 months progress for Year 9 between the previous and current 2023/24 scale. Attainment in 2018/19 relative to 2022/23 moved from 2 months lower to 7 months higher.
• Welsh Reading: For Year 9, attainment in 2020/21 relative to 2022/23, changed from 17 months to 24 months on the new scale.
• English Reading: For Year 9, attainment in 2020/21 relative to 2022/23, changed from 6 months to 11 months on the new scale.
• Numeracy (Reasoning): For Year 6, attainment in 2020/21 relative to 2022/23 changed from 10 months lower to 1 month lower under the new scale.

The tables below illustrate the changes to the attainment values in this release as compared to the release published in June 2024.

Statement of voluntary application of the Code of Practice for Statistics

These statistics are not classed as official statistics. However, we have applied the principles of the Code of Practice as far as possible during development.

These statistics have been developed at pace and published at the earliest possible opportunity to assist users in understanding the patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy for our younger learners and the potential impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. It has not yet been possible to meet the following requirements for official statistics:

• There has not yet been an opportunity to engage with users not working in the education sector to understand what they need from these statistics.
• Engaged with key users in the education sector to understand what they need from their statistics and to ensure that the presentation and commentary makes the statistics useful and accessible.
• Added an analysis of progress by ethnic background in line with our commitments in our Anti Racist Wales Action Plan.

Since the previous release of these statistics in June 2024 - Patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy: September 2018 to August 2023 - we have:

We have voluntarily applied the Code of Practice for Statistics (UK Statistics Authority) as follows:

Trustworthiness

The data have been extracted from operational systems and tabulated by external contractors with extensive experience in analysing and presenting such information and include professional statisticians. The release has been produced with advice from statisticians who work under the supervision of the Welsh Government Chief Statistician to ensure that the statistics, data and explanatory material is presented impartially and objectively.

Although the publication of these tables has not been pre-announced in the same way as official statistics, they have been published at the earliest opportunity to assist users in understanding patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy over time and the potential impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

All personal data underlying these statistics are processed in accordance with the requirements of the Data Protection Act 2018. We have put in place a thorough governance process with the contractor to ensure that the data are securely managed and reviewed before release.

Quality

The data in this release originate from the online adaptive personalised assessments taken annually by all learners in Years 2 to 9. This has been matched with demographic data on learners from our annual school census. Both sources originate from schools and undergo extensive validation both on entry in individual schools and once the data has been received by us. These data sources are considered to be of sufficient quality to support this analysis. All stages in the collection, validation and production of these statistics are supported by professional statisticians working for the contractor and statisticians from the Government Statistician Group.

Our data collection tools and processes have been tailored and refined to suit the requirements of these assessments. Established and proven statistical techniques and packages have been used to ensure the robustness of the analysis.

All data are quality-assured prior to publication. The analysis has been verified by independent analysts, and all outputs have passed through multiple rounds of review.

Value

By summer 2024 learners in Wales were assessed for the third year in Numeracy (Reasoning), marking the point at which there were at least three years of data for all four areas that are assessed. This provided sufficient data to be able to present a robust national picture. We have published this release at the earliest opportunity to assist users in understanding patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy over time and the potential impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly amongst our youngest learners.

The figures have been published in an accessible ODS format which can be shared and reused widely and which complies with the Government Analysis Function guidance on Releasing statistics in spreadsheets. Data are clearly presented in each table, with the spreadsheet also including a cover sheet listing each table. The commentary and notes in the release have been developed to try to make the information as accessible as possible to the widest range of users.

The data in this release is extracted directly from information made available to schools, learners and teachers following the completion of the online assessments. This does not place any additional burden on learners, teachers, schools or local authorities.

This is the third release in what will become an annual official statistics release. Following this release, we will be consulting with key users on the content, timing and accessibility of this release. We will use this feedback to improve subsequent releases.

Quality

This section provides a summary of information on this output against five dimensions of quality: Relevance, Accuracy, Timeliness and Punctuality, Accessibility and Clarity, and Comparability.

Relevance

The purpose of personalised assessments is to support progression in reading and numeracy by providing learners, schools, parents and carers with feedback on skills and progress. At a national level, anonymised data from personalised assessments can also provide information on patterns of attainment and demographic differences which may help support understanding of educational trends in Wales over time.

Accuracy

The Welsh Government works closely with the supplier appointed by the Welsh Government to deliver the online personalised assessments in order to ensure all data are validated before tables are published. Various stages of automated validation and sense-checking are built into the process to ensure a high quality of data.

More information on the nature and administration of the personalised assessments can be found on the personalised assessments (Hwb) pages of the Welsh Government website.

Timeliness and punctuality

These results are being published at the earliest opportunity to assist users in understanding patterns of attainment in reading and numeracy over time and the potential impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The assessments covered in this release were taken up to the end of the summer term 2024.

Accessibility and clarity

This Statistical Release is pre-announced and then published on the Statistics section of the Welsh Government website. It is accompanied by an Open Document Spreadsheet.

Comparability

The personalised assessments have been designed to meet the needs of learners and teachers in Wales and are not comparable with assessment data for other countries e.g. SATS (Standard Assessment Tests) in England.

Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG) 

The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of Wales. The Act puts in place seven wellbeing goals for Wales. These are for a more equal, prosperous, resilient, healthier and globally responsible Wales, with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. Under section (10)(1) of the Act, the Welsh Ministers must (a) publish indicators (“national indicators”) that must be applied for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the Well-being goals, and (b) lay a copy of the national indicators before Senedd Cymru. Under section 10(8) of the Well-being of Future Generations Act, where the Welsh Ministers revise the national indicators, they must as soon as reasonably practicable (a) publish the indicators as revised and (b) lay a copy of them before the Senedd. These national indicators were laid before the Senedd in 2021. The indicators laid on 14 December 2021 replace the set laid on 16 March 2016.

Information on the indicators, along with narratives for each of the wellbeing goals and associated technical information is available in the Wellbeing of Wales report.

Further information on the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

The statistics included in this release could also provide supporting narrative to the national indicators.

Statistician: Steve Hughes
Email: school.stats@gov.wales
 
Media: 0300 025 8099

SFR: 50/2025