FM's speech to Wales Governance Centre - Monday 19 October 2026.
Noswaith dda.
May I begin by thanking the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University for welcoming us this evening, and for the outstanding contribution it continues to make to public discourse, research and political understanding, public policy and constitutional change.
For many years, the centre has helped to inform some of the most important conversations about Wales’ future.
At a time when constitutional matters are too often portrayed as abstract, the centre’s commitment to rigorous analysis, evidence and intellectual discourse is more valuable than ever.
I hope my observations this evening make a small contribution to keeping this vital discourse current, relevant and vibrant.
Over the past quarter of a century, Wales has travelled a remarkable constitutional journey.
Power has moved closer to the people.
Democratic institutions have matured.
Responsibilities have expanded.
Yet despite that progress, important parts of our constitutional settlement are not just incomplete - they actively hinder effective delivery for citizens.
Constitutional reform is not an academic exercise, nor an end in itself.
Constitutions matter because they determine who has the power to act, who is accountable for decisions, and ultimately how effectively governments can improve people's lives.
The issue before us this evening is not whether devolution works.
The issue is how we ensure it works better.
In addressing that challenge, I believe there are 2 questions we must answer:
- How do we equip Wales with the power and accountability it needs to meet the challenges of the years ahead?
- And, how to use those powers most effectively, including how can new partnerships be formed and existing partnerships be enhanced to ensure that the power we have are harnessed for the benefit of all our communities?
Before turning to the new powers and partnerships that I believe Wales should pursue in the years ahead, it is worth reflecting on the moment in which we find ourselves.
The election held in May this year was a historic one.
But it was also something more than a change of administration.
It was another chapter in a much longer national story.
Because Wales has never been a nation content simply to accept the world as it finds it.
Welsh history is, in many respects, a history of struggle.
A history of people refusing to accept that things must remain as they are.
A history of people demanding change.
I think of the Chartists, marching in Newport in pursuit of political reform and democratic representation.
I think of the miners who, in their thousands, came together in communities across Wales to create a united voice. People who understood that progress was rarely handed down from above, but secured through organisation, solidarity and collective action.
I think of the young people who, in the 1960s and beyond, demanded equal status for our language, refusing to accept that Welsh should be confined to the margins of public life and helping to secure rights and recognition that many now take for granted.
Different generations.
Different causes.
But a common thread.
A belief that Wales can be better, and that progress comes when people are prepared to organise, persuade and act.
That spirit did not end in the coalfields of the nineteenth century.
Nor did it end with the language campaigns of the 1960s.
It was present in the movement for devolution.
When it was knocked back in 1979, it got back up again. A determination for which we are grateful now as our democracy continues to evolve.
That spirit remains present today.
And, in a much more modest way, it has prompted me to reflect occasionally on my own journey.
Not so long ago, in that aftermath of May’s election, photographs emerged of myself as - I couldn't help noticing - a much younger-looking man, standing on the steps outside the building in Cathays Park where I now work as First Minister.
At the time, I was there to protest, to campaign and to argue for a different future for Wales.
Now, from my office window, I can see the very place where those photographs were taken.
Life has a way of surprising us.
But my role now is very much an evolution of me back then. The same values. The same determination.
Yet despite the progress that has occurred since I stood on those steps in Cathays Park, important parts of our constitutional arrangements have not kept pace with the progress Wales itself has made.
Too often, responsibility is fragmented.
Too often, accountability is unclear.
Too often, governments are expected to solve problems without possessing all the tools required to do so.
And that is why Wales has reached another important moment in its constitutional journey.
Not an endpoint.
Not a destination.
But another chapter.
Earlier, I posed 2 questions so let me turn to the first:
How do we equip Wales with the power and accountability it needs to meet the challenges of the years ahead?
For many years, debates about devolution were characterised by a familiar instinct within Whitehall.
Power was rarely transferred unless it became impossible to resist.
The burden of proof almost always fell on those arguing for change.
Too often, the question asked was not, “Why should this power remain at Westminster?” but, “Why should Wales have it?”
I hope that we are at a moment where that is changing.
We hear a different language emerging from some quarters of the UK government.
And we hear recognition from Downing Street that decisions are often better taken closer to the communities they affect.
We hear talk of devolution, almost by default. “The days of Whitehall fighting devolution are over!” we were told by the new Prime Minister.
But I have also noticed that other UK government voices seem less receptive to this worldview.
There has remained a tendency to imply that radical change is rarely worth the bother and if it is, the terms and conditions will be set by Westminster.
That the status quo should be the default in every circumstance unless some overwhelmingly compelling case for change is presented, over which they shall be judge and jury. It’s that burden of proof, again. We have evidence aplenty!
I will leave others to judge how compatible that continued devo-sceptic approach is with a proclaimed aspiration to be a reforming government that wants Whitehall’s grip over decision making loosened.
That raises an obvious question.
When the UK government talks about devolution by default, does it mean devolution to all the nations of the United Kingdom?
Or does it come to a shuddering halt at Offa's Dyke? Is this new Downing Street devolution agenda an England-only agenda?
Because if decisions should be taken closer to the people they affect, that principle surely applies to Wales every bit as much as it applies to Greater Manchester, the West Midlands or elsewhere.
And if Whitehall genuinely believes that power should not be retained for its own sake, then it must stop seeking to resist the irresistible groundswell of opinion in Wales as in Scotland that Westminster simply isn’t working for our people.
I recently wrote to the Prime Minister setting out my government’s priorities for constitutional reform.
Those priorities are clear.
The devolution of justice and policing.
The devolution of rail infrastructure.
The devolution of the Crown Estate.
And greater fiscal flexibility to ensure that Welsh Governments are equipped with the tools they need to deliver for the people they serve.
The case for change is, to say the least, robust.
It’s been examined by commissions, including most recently by the cross-party Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales.
The case for change in the justice arena has also been hugely advanced by the work of the Commission on Justice in Wales, which was chaired by the former Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales, Lord Thomas.
It has also been scrutinised across party lines and across several electoral cycles.
And, crucially, by practical experience of how government works in Wales today.
Few areas illustrate more clearly the growing mismatch between the responsibilities Wales holds and the powers it lacks.
We are responsible for health.
For education.
For housing.
For social services.
For many of the interventions that shape life chances, prevent offending and support rehabilitation.
Yet policing and justice remain largely reserved.
The result is a constitutional boundary – or jagged edge - that often bears little relation to the reality of how public services operate.
When responsibility for prevention sits in one place and responsibility for enforcement in another, coherence becomes more difficult and accountability less clear.
That is why the case for devolving policing and justice is not merely a constitutional argument.
It is about practicality.
But above all, it is about people.
We can see that in youth justice.
In Wales, we have pioneered a Child First approach.
An approach that recognises children in the justice system are often among those with the most complex needs.
And that, with the right support and early intervention, most will move away from offending. Yet the age of criminal responsibility remains ten.
That sits uneasily with our commitment to children’s rights, and with the recommendation of the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child that the minimum age should be at least fourteen.
A genuinely joined-up approach also requires the powers and funding arrangements to make it possible.
Local youth justice services currently receive their funding through as many as 8 or 9 different funding streams.
Many have their own terms and conditions, their own onerous reporting requirements. And many carry year-on-year uncertainty about whether they will continue.
One of the first things we would look to do with devolution is dramatically simplify these arrangements.
So that professionals can spend less time navigating bureaucracy and more time doing the work they are employed to do: working directly with children and young people.
We see the same disconnect in the treatment of women.
There is no women’s prison in Wales.
Welsh women who receive custodial sentences are held across the border, away from their families and the Welsh public services responsible for supporting them.
Short sentences can be long enough to disrupt housing, employment and family relationships, without being long enough to provide meaningful rehabilitation.
And, too often, this disruption can turn into a sentence which lasts far longer than the few months that teenage girl or young mother spends in a cell far from home.
A devolved system would allow us to join up policing and justice with health, housing, education and social services where there is inevitable overlap in these areas.
It would allow us to give local government and Welsh Ministers democratic and accountable leadership on policing, giving our councils proper influence over crime prevention.
It would allow us to achieve that alignment to intervene earlier.
To address the causes of offending.
To adapt local policing provision in a manner that suits the needs of local communities, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach imposed from Westminster.
And to reduce the likelihood that people offend again.
Wouldn’t it be revolutionary if we in Wales could design a system whereby the default answer is not just to build more and more prison spaces!
It costs £60,000 a year to house one person in prison in England and Wales.
Wales has the highest incarceration rates anywhere in western Europe, and one in four prisoners go on to reoffend.
Our justice system is broken, and I challenge anyone to claim that Wales should not be afforded at least an opportunity to do things differently and to do them better.
That is why the devolution of rail infrastructure alongside fair funding on rail matter.
We have seen, with the Core Valley Lines, for example, what can be done.
But there remains a fundamental unfairness in the fact that around 10% of the UK rail network is located in Wales yet we receive only 1% of rail Investment.
While the £14 billion commitment made by the UK government to invest in Welsh rail is welcome, only £302 million has been made available within the current Spending Review period.
On this basis, the projects underpinning the commitment cannot be progressed at the pace we need to get Wales moving.
That is why my Cabinet Minister for Finance has written to the UK Chancellor seeking agreement to bring forward £1.011 billion of the existing £14 billion commitment into the current Spending Review period to 2029-2030.
It is why the future of the Crown Estate in Wales matters.
A resource-rich nation with stubbornly high levels of fuel poverty is a perverse situation that we should not tolerate.
And nobody with even a passing awareness of Welsh history could doubt that Welsh natural resources should be under the control of the people of Wales.
It is why fiscal flexibility and fair funding arrangements matter.
The fiscal strait-jacket Wales finds itself in stifles our ability strengthen our resilience and spread prosperity to all parts of our nation.
The people of Wales expect us to drive economic growth, and therefore we should possess the tools needed to do so.
I want to see the UK government removing all restrictions on the Wales Reserve, the fiscal mechanism that allows the Welsh Government to manage its funding from one financial year to the next.
This would allow for greater flexibility to react to emerging and unknown pressures.
And as we move ever closer to the Barnett Formula having been a feature of our fiscal landscape for nearly half a century, changes to this system centred around strengthening fairness and transparency in how funding decisions are made and understood are long overdue.
No element of this should be understood as a call for powers for their own sake.
Nor should it be seen as a competition between governments.
These priorities are not – in any way – exceptional or unreasonable, nor do they seek any special treatment for Wales.
How can I be so certain?
The simple fact is that all these powers we are calling for Wales to have are already devolved to Scotland.
They are in the hands of the Scottish Government and Scottish Ministers, who are accountable to the people of Scotland.
To those who are unwilling to offer this to Wales, I ask a simple question – why should Wales be treated less favourably than Scotland?
Is this a fair basis for citizenship across the nations of the United Kingdom?
Therefore, the task ahead is not just to defend the settlement we have.
The challenge is to consider how the settlement should evolve to enable us to overcome the challenges ahead.
Delivering these changes would be a significant step forward in Wales’ constitutional journey.
It would provide the necessary tools for Welsh organisations to align responsibility with accountability.
It would strengthen our ability to ensure better results.
And it would ensure that decisions which affect people in Wales are made by those most directly accountable to them.
I have explained before how I have looked the Prime Minister straight in the eye and told him he should not undermine the Senedd.
He has personally assured me that he will not do that.
But of course, over recent years, we have seen plenty of evidence that the UK government disregards some of the core principles of devolution.
For example, the UK Internal Market Act gives arbitrary powers to Westminster government to disregard democratic decisions made in devolved parliaments.
And the Sewel Convention – which sets out the key principle that the Westminster Parliament should not normally legislate in areas of devolved responsibility without the consent of those legislatures – has been treated as an inconvenience.
For the United Kingdom to function effectively, with devolved parliaments and multiple layers of democracy, that must change.
Unless he recognises that, the Prime Minister will be left carrying the burden of a constitutional settlement that satisfies no one, alongside a growing frustration - and an increasing realisation - that Westminster is failing.
And yes, I am eager to help the Prime Minister realise this and to see that frustration from a Welsh perspective.
And yet, this means understanding that Wales is not a region of England, and we should not be treated as such.
This leads me to the second question I want to explore this evening:
How to use the powers we have most effectively, including how can new partnerships be formed and existing partnerships be enhanced to ensure that the powers we have are harnessed for the benefit of all our communities?
One of the issues at the heart of the answer is the pursuit of economic growth.
I’ll set out for avoidance of any doubt that there’s one ambition that I and the Prime Minister very much share - the ambition of seeing good growth in every postcode.
But here in Wales, we must be able to nurture that in our own way.
Constitutional reform is not simply about where power sits.
It is about what power allows us to do.
And if we are serious about growing the Welsh economy, then we must also be serious about how growth is delivered.
For too long, Wales has been living with a confused and increasingly fragmented system of economic development.
That should concern all of us.
Because, in principle, the position ought to be straightforward.
There’s clearly a wider global economic landscape, and there’s the UK macro-economic context in which Wales operates, and positive partnership with UK government can work in many ways.
But economic development itself is devolved.
Welsh Government takes the lead, not least in setting the strategic direction, and there are other partners, notably local government, who are crucial in delivering on the ground.
Yet over the last decade, a different approach has emerged.
A succession of UK government programmes has been layered on top of devolved responsibilities and in some cases undermined them.
Some have funded worthwhile projects.
Some have brought genuine benefits.
But, taken together, they have made the landscape more complicated, more fragmented and more difficult to navigate.
City Deals.
Growth Deals.
Levelling Up.
The Shared Prosperity Fund.
Different programmes. Different rules. Different reporting requirements.
But too often the same outcome.
More complexity.
More duplication.
And less clarity about who is responsible for what.
It should not be the case that the Chancellor announces funding for a Welsh industrial site without discussing our plans for the area with us.
Especially when we own the land.
The result is an investment landscape in Wales that is unnecessarily bureaucratic and disconnected.
And each UK government-funded programme brings its own structures. Its own boards. Its own governance and reporting requirements.
Its own oversight by the UK government.
That is time and capacity spent managing competing systems and processes – despite funding being in devolved areas - when it should be focused on delivery.
What makes this all the more striking is that the UK government itself increasingly recognises the problem.
The Prime Minister has spoken about the need to reduce duplication.
He has argued that Whitehall should stop doing things that have already been devolved.
And steps are being taken to simplify funding arrangements in England.
At the heart of that approach is a simple principle.
If powers have been devolved, central government should not continue to duplicate them.
I agree. And it certainly shouldn’t try to dictate them.
And that principle should apply in Wales too.
That means restoring clarity around the devolution settlement and how that, then, can drive forward effective regional and local economic development.
This, of course, doesn’t require a major constitutional rewrite.
It simply requires respecting the devolution settlement that already exists.
Let’s look at where boundaries currently lie between reserved and devolved powers.
There are major areas where only Westminster, at present, has the powers to act:
Grid infrastructure. Trade. Industrial regulation. Large-scale strategic investments.
Just some examples.
And these are all areas where so often when Westminster sneezes, the Welsh economy catches a cold.
This is why governments working effectively together is important.
Because many of the levers that drive growth are already devolved.
Skills. Planning. Innovation. Business support.
Many other levers remain reserved, and of course I want us to move to a place where we have all those key levers of change in our hands, but as it stands the greatest gains will come when both governments align their powers behind a shared objective.
And right now, there is a joint determination to see real growth.
So how do we get there?
Later this month, at the National Economic Council, I’ll invite the Prime Minister to agree a new partnership for growth between our 2 governments.
Not another fund.
Not another programme.
Not another layer of bureaucracy.
But a practical agreement about how our 2 governments work together to unlock Wales's economic potential.
An agreement which ensures that respect flows both ways.
An agreement which commits my government to engaging positively and constructively with the UK government to seize opportunities for growth, and in return expects the UK government to accept that when powers are devolved, the Welsh Government decides how that is done.
Because new powers and new partnerships are not the destination – they are the lanterns which light the path to prosperity and productivity.
Ensuring that the powers each government holds are used as effectively as possible in pursuit of these shared goals is paramount.
Because investors aren’t interested in the theory of constitutional boundaries.
Businesses don’t spend their time thinking about which powers are reserved and which are devolved.
But they DO want effective government. Government that is nimble. That is responsive. That understands the lay of the land. How to develop or unlock local skills. These are reasons I’d argue that devolved government - government in Wales, for Wales, closer to the people of Wales - brings a competitive advantage!
So business wants decisions to be made.
Barriers to be removed.
Infrastructure to be delivered.
And opportunities to be seized.
And that is what this agreement would help achieve.
It would rest on a set of straightforward principles.
- Respect for devolution.
- A commitment to subsidiarity.
- Long-term thinking rather than short-term funding cycles.
- And a relentless focus on outcomes.
It would provide a shared framework through which both governments could identify Wales's major economic opportunities and align their respective powers behind them.
Consider some of the opportunities ahead of us.
- Floating offshore wind.
- The future of Welsh steelmaking.
- The development of our ports.
- Artificial intelligence and digital industries.
Each represents a major opportunity for jobs, investment and growth.
And each requires action from both governments.
Success depends on a new kind of partnership – a partnership of equals.
A partnership that would create a mechanism for identifying barriers early and resolving them quickly.
It would provide ministerial oversight, a route for resolving disagreements, and greater certainty about our collective priorities.
Because certainty matters.
Businesses invest where there is clarity.
Investors invest where there is confidence.
And confidence grows when governments demonstrate that they are working together towards a common purpose.
No bypassing, no undermining, no surprises.
So my message to the Prime Minister will be a simple one.
Let us spend less time designing new programmes and less time duplicating activity.
Let us spend more time unlocking opportunity.
More time supporting investment.
And more time delivering the growth we both want to see in all parts of our respective nations.
Take our new Development Agency, for example – a body being established to breathe new life into an old truism – that our greatest asset in Wales is our people.
The Agency will help support economic development in every part of our nation. That commitment to spreading prosperity throughout Wales is at the core of its mission.
Not by replacing local or regional leadership.
And not by creating new layers of duplication.
But by bringing focus, expertise and capacity to support growth across the country.
It will work alongside local government and regional partners to spread prosperity and boost productivity.
And it’s not just scaling out that my government will do but scaling up too.
Announced by the Cabinet Minister for Enterprise, Connectivity and Energy last month, Sbardun is a joint initiative developed by the Development Bank of Wales and Welsh Government to help up to 20 ambitious Welsh businesses accelerate their growth. Modest in scale at the moment perhaps, but a declaration of intent.
And we will be making sure that those 20 firms are not concentrated in one geographical area.
This is part of a Wales-focused growth vision that only a Welsh Government could spearhead. Because Wales is not England, nor a region of it.
Our institutions are different.
Our communities are different.
Our geography is different.
And they are different within Wales too.
From the coalfields to the coast, our towns, villages and cities have been shaped by their surroundings, and we must reflect that history as we shape their futures too.
That is why our starting point is the principle of subsidiarity – something of a clunky word for an elegantly simple concept.
Where power can sit as closely to the people it affects, it should.
A concept and principle which formed part of Wales’s constitutional DNA long before the slogan of ‘deeper devolution’ began peppering speeches and headlines elsewhere.
But whilst I am clear that we should never assume that what works for England will work for Wales, and vice versa - and I hope the Prime Minister acknowledges this – I know that our current arrangements aren’t perfect either.
I am convinced that, over time, Wales should move towards a more coherent and more streamlined system of local and regional governance.
But that vision cannot be imposed.
It cannot simply be designed in Cardiff and delivered to everyone else, as has been attempted, without success, in the past.
It must be developed together.
- With local government
- With regional partners
- With public services
And with the people of Wales themselves.
We will have a conversation with our partners and colleagues about what powers work best in what places.
That conversation begins with community.
It respects our local authorities, and those vital community and town councils, as the building blocks of democracy – as the protectors of place, as the foundation of our emerging Welsh sovereignty.
Because that is a belief that goes to the core of what this government is about. One Welsh nation made up of distinct and proud communities.
We embrace the opportunity to scale our communities up to the regional level where it makes sense, and where it will lead to better outcomes. But mapping out how that works best and how we get there is about cooperation.
It is about building the road together.
And one of my commitments this evening is to provide a path forward that we can take together, to find our own Welsh route.
Our guide is the manifesto that forms the basis of this government’s programme.
That commitment is to agree a council-led approach to regional collaboration, leading to a new regional map and a plan for implementing it.
But we can only move in tandem with our equal partners in councils and communities.
If you like - impose nothing but invite everything.
Government as a leader.
And the leader - right back to Welsh mythology is the bridge - A fo ben bid bont! is the inspiration we take from Bendigeidfran in the Mabinogi.
Shaping a constitutional pathway, in the spirit of partnership.
By the end of this Senedd term I really hope we can be in a good position to reflect on what is working and where change is needed.
But the conversation about those changes must begin before then, if we are to chart that Welsh way forward.
That way of progressing will feature a detailed meaningful exercise reflecting on where powers and specific competences should lie, how regional working works best and what effective cooperation looks like, and always ensuring that communities are empowered, and not made to feel distant from power, wealth and influence in our country.
This can only be achieved through a collaborative and meaningful conversation with our partners and colleagues in local government and in our Senedd.
So that we in Wales decide how our country is governed.
So that our internal governance is based on the consent of our communities, reflects our democratic nationhood, and is not dependent on changes in England or any other nation.
This will lead to the development of a Green Paper that we will publish before the end of this Senedd term, followed by the option to take forward primary legislation as the next Welsh Government.
I started this evening with 2 questions.
- How do we equip Wales with the necessary powers and accountability to face the challenges in the years ahead?
- And how to use those powers effectively, including creating new partnerships and improving existing partnerships to ensure that the power we have benefits all our communities?
These questions have shaped everything I have spoken about this evening.
Because constitutional reform is not an abstract exercise.
It is not about accumulating powers for their own sake.
It is about ensuring that those responsible for delivering change have the powers and resources they need to make that change happen.
Not because these powers are symbols.
But because they are practical tools that would allow Wales to deal more effectively with its challenges and to seize the opportunities ahead.
The same principle applies to economic prosperity and economic growth.
If governments are to be accountable for growing the economy they must also have the ability to influence the conditions that support growth.
That means respecting the devolution settlement.
Reducing duplication.
Bringing more clarity to the investment landscape.
And a relentless focus on delivery.
That is why ensuring a new intergovernmental partnership on growth is so important.
A practical framework for governments to align their efforts behind common priorities.
From offshore wind and our ports to the future of Welsh steel manufacturing and the industries of tomorrow.
A framework which focusses not on bureaucracy but on opportunities.
Not on process, but on results.
And on respect.
Because my ambition is not just an empowering Wales.
It is for a Wales which governs itself more effectively.
A Wales where the responsibility is clearer.
A Wales where organisations work together more successfully.
A Wales where power, accountability and delivery are more closely aligned.
Throughout our history, Wales has never stood still.
The generations that went before us didn’t simply accept the arrangements they inherited.
They organised.
They persuaded.
And they secured change.
Devolution itself is a testament to that tradition.
Our task now is not to revisit old debates.
It is to ensure that our constitutional arrangements are equal to the challenges of our time.
To build a Wales that is better equipped to grow its economy.
Better able to strengthen public services.
And better able to shape its own future.
Power should sit where it can deliver the greatest benefit.
Responsibility should be matched by the ability to act.
And accountability should be clear to the people we serve.
That is the work before us.
That is the opportunity before us.
And it is a task that I am determined we will take forward together as a national mission.
Diolch yn fawr.