Welsh Government Biodiversity Targets Advisory Panel meeting: 19 June 2026

The Chair welcomed panel members to the meeting. He thanked members who had submitted feedback ahead of the meeting.

The objectives for the meeting were:

• Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) to give an update on the scenarios development to aid offline review of final scenarios
• panel to advise on species and ecosystems scenarios modelling methodologies
• panel to advise on indicator selection process and shortlist

Officials updated the panel that the Environment (Principles, Governance and Biodiversity Targets) (Wales) Act 2026 received Royal Assent on 27 April. It sets out three key components; to embed environmental principles into Welsh law, establish an environmental governance body for Wales, and to introduce a biodiversity target framework for Wales. Biodiversity targets will need to be introduced in legislation by April 2028.

With a new government in place officials are working to new priorities. While a programme for government has not yet been established, current efforts are focused on delivering the government’s first 100-day commitments. Work has started on an ambitious Climate and Nature Action Plan, focused on a practical pathway to net zero by 2040 and substantive nature recovery by 2050.

Officials highlighted a number of manifesto commitments of likely interest to the panel, for example a commitment to introduce new and enforceable targets to reduce pollution in our rivers and seas based on the polluter pays principle.

Ahead of the meeting the panel had been asked to review the process and shortlisting of indicators for species and effective management of ecosystems; and review the scenarios modelling methodologies for species and effective management of ecosystems.

Officials updated the panel on the target development work

An update was provided on the development of a light pollution target including a recent workshop held in Aberystwyth to shortlist metrics and consider how different drivers and enabling conditions may impact this under different scenarios. 

The panel noted the need for good communications when presenting the targets to stakeholders and the public. There was a need for a clear narrative around the reasons behind the allocation of targets. 

For the excess nutrients target topic, officials stated that work is ongoing to identify the most appropriate modelling methodology. This includes consideration of existing and ongoing modelling within the agriculture and water sectors, to ensure alignment and avoid duplication or inconsistency.

Under the evidence priority area officials are continuing to work on developing a possible target on condition assessments. A workshop was held online with subject experts and stakeholders to consider enablers and barriers for this target. Officials are also continuing to explore a possible target on biodiversity inclusive spatial planning under this priority area.

The panel approved the proposed target topics for the evidence priority area. Officials are looking at a possible biodiversity inclusive spatial mapping target topic, which if developed would contribute to the Global Biodiversity Framework target 1. Discussions had been held with Planning Policy Wales and Future Wales colleagues on this potential target topic. 

The panel approved the procurement of a cost benefit analysis. It was noted that the contract would be procured for the work in July.

The panel approved the Sustainable Land Management development of a species abundance and ecosystem resilience indicator. 

Officials provided an update on the work to date. JNCC had completed an in-depth analysis of indicators shortlisted by Welsh Government on species relative abundance and distribution; effective management of ecosystems and excess nutrients in the environment. A three-step process had been used to sift the indicators. The panel approved the three-step process and considered it to provide a reasonable framework for indicator assessment and selection.

The panel highlighted the need for long-term viability for the indicators, particularly the species priority area where species may need to be added or removed from the indicator in future. Being able to update targets provided long-term resilience, this would also apply to pollutants.

JNCC provided an overview of work to date to provide evidence that can support decisions on levels of ambition for the statutory targets. The broad approach used scenarios to explore different possible future environmental changes and models to project effect on biodiversity targets.
The panel welcomed the approach taken by JNCC and the need for narrative in how the scenarios can be interpreted, particularly, around uncertainties and limitations.

JNCC provided an update. It was noted that there were some taxonomic groups that couldn’t be modelled due to lack of data. The taxa with the best data were the ones with long running monitoring schemes, e.g. birds, bats, lepidoptera.

JNCC are using an approach that was originally developed within Defra to look at projecting species trends and informing targets. It was designed as a simple way to assess what scales of abundance change are likely to be achievable through different scenarios. 

JNCC asked the panel to feedback if they were aware of any data sets for freshwater fish and freshwater macroinvertebrates which would be useful to use in either the abundance or the distribution modelling.

JNCC presented the proposed modelling approach for the effective management of ecosystems targets. The work was based on modelling potential futures for Management Effectiveness of Protected and Conserved Areas (MEPCA) Indicator scores for marine, terrestrial and freshwater Protected or Conserved Areas (PCAs) in Wales.

The panel were asked to send JNCC best available data we can use to establish baselines for each MEPCA criterion and, where possible, historic trends (e.g. frequency of monitoring, rather than just when the most recent monitoring took place).

The panel agreed that it would be helpful to have a timeline of key milestones between now and April 2028, allowing members to position thinking ahead of topics coming up. 

The Chair thanked the panel for their input and encouraged additional written feedback. The next meeting will be 30 September 2026.