Welsh Government export support programmes: impact evaluation (summary)

The Welsh Government (WG) has an extensive record of supporting exporting businesses in Wales through a range of export support programmes. This commitment to export promotion was signalled by publication of the Export Action Plan (ExAP) in December 2020, which formed part of the WG’s International Strategy. The ExAP brought together existing programmes with a range of new offerings to put in place an ambitious and comprehensive programme of support for Wales-based businesses at different stages of their export journeys. The dual aims of the ExAP are to support individual businesses in achieving their exporting goals, and to broaden Wales’s overall export base.

This evaluation assesses the impact of four core export support programmes outlined in the ExAP, by investigating their effects on the export journeys and performance of businesses that received support between 2017-18 and 2023-24. These programmes include: the International Trade Development programme (ITD), the International Trade Opportunities programme (ITO), Overseas Business Development Visits (OBDV) and Overseas Visits and Exhibitions (OVE).

The impact evaluation set out in this report was accomplished through a mixed-methods approach that made combined use of a range of quantitative and qualitative methods. Specifically, the evaluation included:

• surveys of 154 businesses that received core programme support (beneficiaries) and 111 businesses that did not receive support (non-beneficiaries)
• in-depth interviews with 17 businesses that accessed support, as well as consultations with 8 internal and external stakeholders
• a perceived additionality assessment based on analysis of what beneficiary businesses would have done in the absence of support

The core programmes in scope for the evaluation were selected on account of financial scale and business take-up. In combination the ITD, ITO, OBDV and OVE programmes account for the majority of the overall WG export support budget and are also based on tailored business support. Exceptions to this rationale are the New Exporters Programme and Export Clusters Programme, both of which are comparatively resource intensive programmes. The New Exporter Programme was excluded from the evaluation, in that it only began operating in the 2021-22 financial year and hence was deemed unlikely to have generated measurable outcomes. The Export Clusters Programme was excluded on the grounds that it is the focus of a stand-alone research report (Export Cluster Programme: feedback survey results).

The evaluation period of 2017-18 to 2023-24 was selected for the research, firstly, to allow a sufficient period for the materialisation of programme outcomes, and secondly, to take account of any ‘before and after’ effects of salient economic events, including EU-Exit, Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Selecting this relatively extensive period also allowed the beneficiary survey to sample from a larger pool of programme participants, ensuring sufficient cases on which to base the quantitative analysis.

Effectiveness of WG export support

Further analysis would be beneficial to establish a more robust counterfactual and to explore both correlational and causal relationships between WG export support and observed outcomes. Nevertheless, the evaluation found that the WG’s core export support programmes have played an important role in supporting Welsh businesses to expand internationally. 63.4% of beneficiary businesses surveyed reported increased turnover, and 60.0% reported export sales growth since receiving support. 55.4% attributed their export growth directly to WG support, demonstrating the contribution of WG export support programmes to business success. Trade missions and Overseas Business Development Visits (OBDVs) were identified as the most impactful support mechanisms, helping businesses secure new international clients and expand into high-growth markets. Other initiatives such as International Trade Development (ITD) and International Trade Opportunities (ITO) were valuable for market research, regulatory guidance, and business introductions. However, five surveyed respondents found consultant-led market intelligence to be of limited use, stating that they could obtain similar insights independently.

Export growth and market expansion

Businesses reported expanding into new international markets and diversifying into new sectors, such as offshore renewables, aerospace, and healthcare technologies because of receiving WG export support. The support has also contributed to job creation and retention, with 43.8% of supported businesses safeguarding jobs and 17.1% increasing their workforce. Perceived additionality analysis showed that 12.4% of supported businesses said they would ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ not have pursued exporting. In interviews, many stated they would have faced major challenges without WG export support, including lack of market knowledge and confidence, financial constraints, and limited access to international networks.

Challenges and areas for improvement

While the support has been highly effective, a handful of businesses and stakeholders identified several areas for enhancement. Five respondents in highly regulated industries noted that the support was not always tailored to businesses’ compliance and market access needs. Four requested greater flexibility in grant approvals, particularly for trade shows where delays in funding decisions impacted participation. Four respondents also raised a lack of awareness of available support, calling for more proactive outreach and engagement to increase participation. Additionally, six respondents expressed the need for clearer post EU-exit regulatory guidance, particularly regarding customs, VAT, and export documentation.

New export deals following programme support

Between 2017–18 and 2024–25, businesses participating in core export support programmes reported export deals totalling £455.5 million. Over the same period, direct programme costs amounted to £22.2 million, yielding a ratio of gross export value to direct programme costs of 20.5. This figure offers a useful, high-level view of aggregate outcomes from the four core support programmes across the evaluation period and reflects the scale of reported export activity.

WG export support has provided valuable financial and advisory support, assisting Wales-based businesses to achieve export sales growth and job creation, as well as increased market awareness and confidence. Businesses widely credited OVEs, OBDVs, and in-market support with facilitating new international trade deals. While the programmes are delivering important outcomes for businesses, improvements in sector-specific guidance, funding processes, and engagement strategies could further enhance their impact.

As Welsh exporting businesses continue to navigate global trade challenges, the four core support programmes remain a critical intervention. They help businesses in Wales to grow their export activity, contribute to overall business growth, and strengthen Wales’ position as a competitive exporting nation. Future refinements should focus on ensuring tailored, efficient, and well-communicated export support, enabling businesses to achieve sustained global success.

Recommendations

The recommendations are intended to guide future planning and prioritisation, focusing on actions that could strengthen the relevance, reach, and long-term effectiveness of export support. While some proposals are deliberately ambitious, their implementation should be balanced against operational capacity and strategic priorities - emphasising those with the greatest potential impact and feasibility within existing delivery structures. To enhance the effectiveness, accessibility, and strategic impact of WG export support, the evaluation recommends:

• improving consultant alignment and follow-up in the ITD programme, ensuring support is tailored to sector and market needs
• strengthening preparation and post-visit support for OBDVs and OVEs, equipping businesses to convert opportunities into export outcomes
• expanding sector-specific and regulatory export guidance, particularly for high-compliance sectors such as life sciences, aerospace, and renewables
• exploring facilitation of inward visits by overseas buyers and partners, especially where product demonstrations or site visits are commercially important
• increasing awareness through targeted sector-specific forums and improved digital marketing, highlighting support offers and relatable success stories
• enhancing collaboration with intermediaries and peer networks, equipping them to signpost export support more consistently
• improving long-term monitoring and outcome tracking, embedding structured, light-touch metrics, such as employment, turnover, and export sales, into CRM systems and support pathways

Report author: Tom Bajjada, Yasmin Pemberton, Joseff Howells, Scout Astley Jones, and Max Mucientes/ Miller Research (UK) Ltd.

Views expressed in this report are those of the researchers and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government.

For further information please contact:
Richard Gale
Trade Analysis Team, Knowledge and Analytical Services
Welsh Government
Cathays Park
Cardiff
CF10 3NQ

Email: stats.trade@gov.wales

Social research number: 83/2025
Digital ISBN: 978-1-80633-322-6