Welsh Statistical Liaison Committee, 4 June 2026: minutes

Abigail Cole (AC), Carmarthenshire County Council

Alwyn Williams (AW), Isle of Anglesey County Council

Anja Knox (AK), Welsh Government

Bryn Jeffries (BJ), Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Caitlin Theodorou (CT), Ceredigion County Council

Eleri James (EJ), Welsh Language Commissioner

Geeta Kerai (GK), Office for National Statistics (ONS) Local

Geraint Morgan (GM), Powys County Council

Henry Knowles (HK), Natural Resources Wales

Janine Edwards (JE), North Wales Regional Partnership Board

Jonathan Radcliffe (JRa), Sport Wales

Kay palmer (KP), Audit Wales

Lee Clarke (LC), Cardiff County Council

Lloyd fisher (LF), Vale of Glamorgan Council 

Lowri Wyn Morton (LWM), Cyngor Gwynedd

Megan Williams (MW), Welsh Government, 

Morgan Lowden (ML), Isle of Anglesey County Council 

Peter Davies (PD), Senedd Research

Rachael Clifford (RC), MEDR

Rebecca Ann Williams (RAW), Cyngor Gwynedd

Richard Jones (RJ), Monmouthshire County Council

Steve King (SK), City and County of Swansea

Vicki Doyle (VD), Caerphilly County Borough Council

Speakers

Brenna Organ (BO), Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA)

Jack Roberts (JR), Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA)

Jodi Massey (JM), Welsh Government

Joy Preece (JP), ONS

Luned Jones (LJ), Welsh Government

Martin Parry (MP), Welsh Government

Nigel Henretty (NH), ONS

Paul Dingle (PDi), Welsh Government

Rob Pascoe (RP), Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA)

Stephanie Harries (SHa), Welsh Government

Stephanie Howarth (SH), Welsh Government 

Will Parrott (WP), Welsh Government

Minute taker

Jasmine Sears, Welsh Government

Apologies

Andy Wilson, Torfaen County Borough Council

Gwyneth Ayers, Carmarthenshire County Council

Kate Jones, HM Prison and Probation Service in Wales

Leanne John, Swansea Council

Manon Fflur Pritchard, Cyngor Gwynedd

Nathan Lester, Public Health Wales

Nia Wyn Vaughan, Cyngor Gwynedd

Paul Jones, Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council

SH opened the meeting, welcomed attendees, and introductions were given for new attendees. SH noted that simultaneous translation was unavailable because the meeting did not meet the 10% Welsh language threshold. 

Minutes and actions from the last meeting

No comments were made on the minutes from the previous meeting.

The action for all members who gave feedback on the new StatsWales service to fill in the StatsWales feedback form was complete.

MP gave an update on the action to look into different health networks and groups that the projections could be presented to. The team will be in touch with the Social Care Data in Wales group that consists of members from Care Inspectorate  Wales, Social Care Wales, Welsh Local Government Association and others. 

Welsh Local Government Association update (Brenna Organ, WLGA)

See the published WLGA update for more information

BO gave an update on the WLGA. Following the merger Data Cymru and the WLGA, Data Cymru has been split across the engagement team and the digital and data team. The digital and data team is developing a work programme for data including both existing projects and strengthening alignment with sector led improvement principles. Work is underway with local government to help shape priorities and make sure support is focused on where it is most valuable. BO then outlined the work being done to improve the national resident survey including aligning the survey with all participating councils, strengthening response rates and developing a Welsh language module to improve data collection for Welsh language. 

Discussion 

MP and BO discussed work being done with the Welsh language commissioner to expand Welsh language data collection. The project is in early development with opportunities for ongoing input and development. EJ added that aligning with the existing survey standards and demographic questions is a priority. 

Action 1: MP to ensure there is an agenda item at the meeting between the Welsh language statistics team and the WLGA to discuss the ongoing Welsh language data collection work.

Statistics Wales quarterly update (Stephanie Howarth, Welsh Government)

See the published newsletter for more information 

SH gave a summary of several items from the quarterly update.

For economic statistics, after the next release in July, the short-term economic output indicators will no longer be published and the regional quarterly GDP figures from ONS will be used instead. A blog was published in April on the quality of the statistics for Wales in the labour force survey and the annual population survey. SH noted that the response rates for the survey are low by historical standards.

For housing and homelessness statistics, work is underway to move from aggregate to individual-level data collection for homelessness. The team are also exploring using admin data sources for house building statistics to improve the quality of the statistics. 

For health and social care statistics, the mental health dashboard has been updated, and a new monthly social care capacity and demand publication has been launched. 

For poverty and deprivation statistics, deprivation profiles for public service boards have been published and DWP have made an update to poverty statistics methodology incorporating admin benefits data. 

For transport statistics, the Wales National Travel Survey has released its first six months of data, providing a new source for transport analysis.

Demography update (Martin Parry, Welsh Government)

See the published newsletter for more information.

MP gave an update from the newsletter. The ONS have published the latest long term international migration estimates. Although these are not available at the Wales level, they feed into the mid-year population estimates. In March the ONS published updated electoral roll statistics. They do not yet include 16 and 17 year olds registered to vote in Senedd or local government elections. 

Discussion

LWM asked if there are plans to update local authority population projections based on the 2024 estimates. MP responded that the team are looking at potential options for the next set of local authority population projections and will follow up with more detail soon.

RP gave a presentation on the council data audit. He summarised the need for a data return audit and explained that the audit aims to understand the data reporting landscape in Welsh councils. It looks at what data is collected and why it is collected. A findings report will be produced looking at how and where data collection can be improved. This time the audit focuses on social care, education and planning. The report will give recommendations on areas for improvement such as, where any returns are being duplicated, clashing deadlines, and how to maximise the value to councils. RP outlined the approach to producing this report and provided an update on the current progress of the project. 

Discussion

JE highlighted the importance of considering secondary uses of data, not just its primary collection purpose. She gave example of social care data being reused for populations needs estimates and wellbeing assessments. RP agreed and added that the value of the data extends past the data team to policy and wider organisational uses. 

JE noted the growing legislative interest in monitoring and reporting, including development of dashboards and suggested a catalogue could support these needs.

SK asked about plans to expand the work to other council services like housing after the initial three areas. RP responded that no decisions on this have been made yet and the next steps will likely involve engaging people to identify priority areas.

Action 2: include an agenda item on findings of the report from the audit of local governments in the next WSLC meeting in October.

LJ gave a presentation on the proposed changes to Welsh Government statistics from the consultation response that was published in April. The consultation covered six policy themes, proposing changes such as reducing output length or frequency and stopping duplicated outputs. Feedback showed users understood the need to prioritise and reduce some outputs but also highlighted the importance of maintaining accessible data for Wales and clear guidance.

Discussion

JE raised a concern that when data sources are discontinued, some users may not notice for years as they may be infrequent users of the statistics. JE also emphasised the importance of having clear signposting where reports have been reduced or discontinued to explain the alternatives available. LJ acknowledged this and noted where efforts have been made to signpost where changes have been made in publications, explain reductions, and direct users to alternative data sources.

SH outlined some of the recent updates to the new StatsWales service. A search feature has been launched to allow users to search for datasets using keywords. This feature has provided evidence of what terms are being used to search for datasets. The new create a table feature allows users to view the data in a table format. Improvements are also being made to the resilience of the service.

JM then took the group through an exercise to gather input on the following parts of the new StatsWales service: the homepage, taxonomy, the search function, viewing data, manipulating data, downloading data, metadata and API. The feedback from this exercise will be used to shape the future roadmap for StatsWales.

ONS census and mid-year population estimates update (Nigel Henretty)

NH presented the population and census statistics update. NH provided an update on preparations for the 2031 census, including a test in 2027. NH also gave an update on population estimates. ONS is working on improving methods for internal and international migration estimates, and these changes are expected to be implemented from mid-2026 estimates. Upcoming releases include mid-2025 estimates with revisions dating back to 2022 to 2024 to reflect updated migration data, plus UK-wide estimates and a provisional UK population figure are expected later in the year. 

NH explained a review from the Office for Statistics Regulation found good confidence in the statistics at a national level but concerns over accuracy at subnational and subgroup level. They have set requirements to improve transparency, communication of uncertainty, and user guidance. The ONS plans to address these through better documentation, clearer explanation of strengths and limitations and updated guidance on which estimates to use. NH explained that a work plan will be published outlining improvements, showing the continued development of methods.

Discussion

JE asked whether ONS will now revise population estimates further back in time whenever methods change. NH responded that revisions are only made as far back as necessary to maintain consistency, mainly with international migration data. This currently requires going back to 2022, not the full time series. NH also noted that revisions should be less extensive over time as the methods for producing the estimates stabilise.

JE stated that frequent revisions can confuse users and reduce trust, making it seem like the data is unreliable. NH noted this and suggested improving communication about the scale and impact of revisions to reassure users. While revisions are important for accuracy, it’s crucial to manage user expectations and clearly explain changes to maintain confidence.

SK asked about a previous proposal to have preliminary, provisional and final estimates each year. NH responded that this approach is specifically for admin-based population estimates and is not currently being used for the mid-year estimates.

Populations Projections update (Stephanie Harries)

SHa presented the national population projections. The 2024 based national population projections were published on the 28 April by ONS. They are based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration, and carry uncertainty. SHa then outlined the projections including the overall Wales picture, age structure changes, births, deaths and migrations. SHa compared the projections with previous projections

Discussion

JE highlighted the difference between the 2022 and 2024 projections is likely due to unusual trends during COVID affecting the data. NH agreed and noted that the UK is projected to see more deaths than births from around 2026 onwards.

JP gave a presentation on the work being done across the Government Statistical Service to develop a new harmonised standard for collecting ethnicity data which aims to improve consistency, comparability and data quality.

JP outlined the user needs and presented some of the challenges with developing questions to collect ethnicity data. The work explores question design and aims for a balance between usability and inclusivity. JP explained the next steps of the project: a detailed consultation report will be published late summer, the proposed response options will be released in autumn, and the final UK wide standard is targeted for the end of the year. 

WP presented the 2025 based housing needs estimates. These assess the housing needs in Wales over the next 20 years using updated housing projections. Housing needs is split into existing unmet need and newly arising need. WP explained the changes to the housing needs estimates compared with 2019 based estimates and explained key methodological changes in producing the estimates.

JE asked if there are plans for a Welsh advisory group for the census.

LWM asked NH if the ONS are going to develop household income estimates again at a lower geographical level. NH responded that he would find out if there are any plans in place.

Action 3: Nigel Henretty to report back on plans to establish census advisory groups.

Action 4: Nigel Henretty to enquire within ONS about current progress with household incomes estimates for small geographical areas.

The next meeting will take place on 13 October 2026.

Action 1: MP to ensure there is an agenda item at the Welsh language statistics team regular meeting with the WLGA to discuss the ongoing Welsh language data collection work.

Action 2: include an agenda item on findings of the report from the audit of local governments in the next WSLC meeting in October.

Action 3: Nigel Henretty to report back on plans to establish census advisory groups.

Action 4: Nigel Henretty to enquire within ONS about current progress with household incomes estimates for small geographical areas.