Welsh Statistical Liaison Committee, 6 February 2025: minutes

• Phillip Barlow (PB), Pembrokeshire Coast National Park
• Lee Clarke (LC), Cardiff County Council
• Adam Crocker (AC), Pembrokeshire County Council
• Peter Davies (PD), Senedd Commission
• Vicki Doyle (VD), Caerphilly County Council
• Janine Edwards (JE), North Wales Regional Partnership Board
• Lloyd Fisher (LF), Vale of Glamorgan Council
• Paul Jones (PJ), Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council
• Richard Jones (RJ), Monmouthshire County Council
• Ceri Lewis (CL), Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Morgan Lowden (ML), Isle of Anglesey County Council
• Geraint Morgan (GM), Powys County Council
• Hayley Randall (HRa), Data Cymru
• Lesley Rees (LR), Carmarthenshire County Council
• Abbie Sharp (AS), Pembrokeshire County Council
• Elaine Smith (ES), Wrexham County Borough Council
• Zoe Strawbridge (ZS), Public Health Wales
• Alwyn Williams (AW), Isle of Anglesey County Council
• Megan Williams (MW), Welsh Government
• Steffan Wiliam (SW), Cymen (translator)
• Lowri Wyn Morton (LWM), Cyngor Gwynedd

Speakers

• Becca Armstrong (BA), Welsh Government
• Dan Boon (DB), Welsh Government
• Steph Harries (SHa), Welsh Government
• Nigel Henretty (NH), ONS
• Giles Horsfield (GH), ONS
• Steve King (SK), Swansea Council
• Sue Leake (SL), Welsh Government (Chair)
• Martin Parry (MP), Welsh Government
• Heledd Rees (HR), ONS
• Sam Sullivan (SS), Data Cymru
• Caitlin Theodorou (CT), Ceredigion County Council
• Nia Wyn Vaughan (NWV), Cyngor Gwynedd

Minute takers

• Ryan Jones (RJo), Welsh Government
• Gunan Singh (GS), Welsh Government

Apologies

• Gwyneth Ayers, Carmarthenshire County Council
• Alis Francis, Snowdonia National Park Authority
• Steph Howarth, Welsh Government
• Bryn Jeffries, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council
• Leanne John, Swansea Council
• Kate Jones, HM Prison and Probation Service in Wales
• Jonathan Radcliffe, Sport Wales
• Helena Snuggs, Sport Wales
• Neil Townsend, ONS

Simultaneous translation was provided for this meeting.

SL welcomed everyone and explained that she was chairing the meeting on behalf of Steph Howarth who was not able to attend. 

New attendees introduced themselves: 

• ZS (Public Health Wales): Advanced Analyst in the Observatory and Cancer Analytical Team.
• AC and AS (Pembrokeshire County Council): GIS Analysts
• RJ (Monmouthshire County Council)

SL provided an update on the previous meeting’s notes and outstanding action points.

JE raised the ongoing issue of data rounding in homelessness statistics. SL noted and will raise again with the Housing Statistics team.

Well-being assessments will now be a standing agenda item for future meetings. 

SK inquired about the publication date for the new LSOA names. There is no confirmed date yet, as discussions with the Welsh Language Commissioner are ongoing due to translation issues.

JE asked about feedback from the UK Stats Assembly. A report is being prepared for the UK Statistics Authority Board, expected to inform the next GSS strategy. 

VD registered disappointment on the outcome of the scoping exercise on a Local Wellbeing Assessment database

Action 1: Secretariat to ensure well-being assessments are included in all future meeting agendas.

Statistics Wales Quarterly update

SL highlighted developments in a number of areas (economic and labour market data, school attendance reports, transport statistics, housing analysis, NHS performance data, and cross-border healthcare statistics) and members responded.

Action 2: Chair to follow up on the transformed Labour Force Survey and expect an update in Spring 2025 regarding future changes.

Action 3: Secretariat to add National Survey for Wales as a future agenda item. 

Economy and Labour Market

Data from the Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey continue to be published, though additional caveats have been included regarding data quality.

Work is ongoing on the transformed Labour Force Survey, with an update expected in Spring 2025.

Stakeholders interested in economic and labour market statistics were encouraged to engage with the Economic Statistics User Group.

Education

Recent school attendance reports now include long-term trend comparisons, particularly pre- and post-COVID, in line with Welsh Government priorities to increase school attendance.

Housing

A new analysis has been published on second homes in Gwynedd, using council tax chargeable properties as a baseline for affordability pilots.

The findings provide insights into housing availability, affordability, and policy considerations for second homes.

Health

A quarterly NHS performance deep dive has been introduced, providing detailed insights at Welsh local health board level.

New cross-border healthcare analysis explores the number of Welsh residents receiving treatment in England and English residents registered with GPs in Wales.

Early Years

Latest Flying Start statistics now reflect data from the programme's expansion, providing a broader view of early childhood development in Wales.

Social Care

Social Care Wales has initiated work on new projections, though national projections are not yet available.

Stakeholders emphasized the need for coordination between Social Care Wales and national statistical teams to ensure consistency.

Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD)

Work is underway for the 2025 WIMD update, with a report on proposed indicators and consultation feedback expected in March to April 2025.

National Survey for Wales

A decision was made to suspend fieldwork for 2025 to 2026, pending a full redesign of the survey.

Concerns were raised about the potential impact on well-being assessments, which rely on the data collected.

SK requested that National Survey for Wales is added to a future meeting agenda.

Transport & Road Safety

The latest police-recorded road collision data was published in October, with an update on provisional data up to September 2024 recently released.

The impact of the default speed limit change was highlighted as a key topic of interest.

Transport for Wales has announced plans to launch a new National Travel Survey in early 2025.

Demography update

No major updates. Household estimates for mid-2023 were published in November. MP suggested an agenda item on population and household projections at a future meeting; once they will have been published. 

National Residence Survey continues to expand, with 18 to 19 councils expected to participate next year. 

A new data tool, Data City, will allow for refined economic classifications. 

Training opportunities are available, covering topics such as presenting data and performance measurement. 

JE raised concerns about the Social Progress Index’s relevance for Wales and recommended using existing Data Cymru resources instead. 

HR from ONS gave a presentation on ONS Local (see detailed slides).

ONS Local serves as an analytical advisory service, helping local and devolved governments access and interpret data for evidence-based decision-making.

Structure of ONS Local

• Regional leads cover each English region.
• Devolved liaison officers support devolved governments.
• Acts as a bridge between local governments and ONS data resources.

ONS Local is structured around five pillars: 

Analytical

Providing data analysis, supporting local analytical projects, and gathering user priorities to inform ONS plans. 

Data Access

Helping navigate data platforms, providing expert advice, and connecting stakeholders to the right resources. 

Networking

Organising events, facilitating collaboration, and addressing common data challenges across different regions.

Strategic

Aligning local and central government priorities, ensuring decision-making reflects user needs.

Building capability

Running training sessions, workshops, and webinars to improve data literacy and analytical skills. 

HR gave a presentation on the ‘ONS Local’ team and services explaining: 

• the structure and approach to liaison: 
  the pillars of work (analytical, supporting data access, networking, strategy and building capability)
• how ONS local can support stakeholders

She provided some detailed case studies of the type of work they had done with various organisations or groups. She described Capability building workshops and webinars that ONS Local run and how to contact the team 
A slide on the published user requested data also gave examples of the breadth of types of enquiries they have handled.

API and dashboard training

Due to high demand, ONS Local has hosted three workshop series on harvesting ONS APIs and using local intelligence dashboards. 

Over 1,000 stakeholders have attended these training sessions. 

Upcoming interactive events will allow stakeholders to influence the future of population statistics.

How to get involved

Sign up for webinars via the ONS Local Eventbrite link (slides to be circulated with details). 

Past recordings are available for stakeholders who missed earlier sessions. 

Upcoming sessions will focus on publishing population estimates and using APIs for local data automation.

Contact and engagement opportunities

How to reach ONS Local

HR shared her email and team contact details for future inquiries. 

Stakeholders were encouraged to explore the ONS Local tile on the ONS website to see past user data requests. 

ONS Local is running an evaluation exercise, with interviews open until March for stakeholders to provide feedback on their services. Members were invited to get in touch if they were willing to be interviewed.

A contact email was provided for those wishing to share feedback but unable to commit to an interview. 

Q&A session

ES asked whether ONS Local services are free or chargeable.

Response: All support is free of charge, though requests are prioritised based on resource availability.

RJ expressed interest in the Rural Statistics Working Group and its potential relevance for the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD).

Response: 

• Stakeholders are welcome to join the March kick-off meeting to see how the group develops.
• The first meeting will be broad, with a smaller working group formed afterward.

JE raised three points:
1.    Welsh representation in the Rural Statistics Working Group – stressed the need for formal Welsh involvement to ensure rural deprivation issues in Wales are accurately represented.
2.    Relevance of ONS Local work for Wales – highlighted concerns that many projects focus on England and may not align with Welsh data needs. Called for stronger engagement with Welsh Government.
3.    Importance of the Census – emphasized that the Census remains the most valuable local data source for Wales due to its granularity, multidimensionality, and benchmarking capabilities.

Response: ONS Local confirmed that projects are tailored to local needs and encouraged Welsh stakeholders to engage proactively and outline their specific data requirements.

BA is beginning analysis into the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) data and would appreciate feedback on what potential users may find useful.

LEO is led by the DfE, with collaboration from DWP, HMRC, Welsh Government, Scottish Government and ONS to link student education records to post-education income, benefits and employment outcomes. Welsh Government education data is also linked into the LEO datasets. This data has been used to analyse performance measures for post-16 education, and show destinations by sector, level of study, qualification, learner characteristics and more.

There is a range of education data sources included: Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC), Educated Other Than At School (EOTAS), Lifelong Learning Wales Record (LLWR), Post-16 collection, and Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). This covers KS4, KS5 and higher education.

This education data is linked to various income, employment and benefits data sources, such as: PAYE data, self-assessments, Inter-departmental Business Register (IDBR), geographical data, Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) and Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS).

There are limitations to the LEO data. It only covers students that have been linked to other data and does not cover the entire cohort. Additionally, employment and income data does not consider the hours worked and the IDBR only includes sector instead of the specific occupation. There are also limits in self-employment data which does not include start and end dates.

The data has been used in publications, such as DfE reporting on ages 16 to18, KS4 and higher education outcome-based success measures, as well as work from ONS into geographic mobility during and after higher education.

The future plan is to further explore the LEO database, focusing on earnings analysis, employment sector and geographical mobility. Additionally, the team is looking at making this data available for other researchers.

Please contact LabourMarket.Stats@gov.wales to provide any feedback or comments on the LEO analysis.

NWV commented that analysis on geographic mobility would be valuable. As a rural local authority, they find that people are often moving out for higher education, and having data on where they are moving to would be helpful.

MP and SL added that this is likely a case for other rural areas, and that the population statistics team have already been thinking about investigating this, including in relation to Welsh-speaking ability.

NH provided updates to the work ONS is doing around revisions policy for the new Admin-Based Population Estimates (ABPEs).

A paper will be published on 26 February which will provide information on the frequency of revisions to population estimates. The aim is to find a balance in frequency of revisions to preserve accuracy in the model-based approach while not disrupting work which relies on full time series of population estimates. The frequency of revisions is especially important for areas that experience higher levels of migration. ONS welcome feedback from users.

The population estimates for England and Wales for mid-2024 at local authority level will be published by summer 2025. This will be accompanied by revisions to the mid-2023 and mid-2022 estimates to make them in sync with the new international migration estimates being published around May.

NH also explained that the National Statistician’s recommendation on the future of population and migration statistics is still being finalised, but a paper will be published in the coming months. This is likely to will focus on the transition from survey-based estimates to the ABPEs and may not comment, at this stage, on whether a future census will take place.

GH explained that ABPEs are aimed to be the main population estimates for summer 2025, and a set of criteria has been published on 31 January for measuring the success and suitability of the ABPEs. These criteria are designed to ensure that the ABPEs are at least to the same level of quality, or an improvement, to the current traditional method mid-year estimates.

There will be further consultations with academics, local authority representatives, and other representatives from devolved governments and other governmental departments.

The ABPEs must be able to meet user needs, be accurate and reliable, and produced with confidence in having adequate data availability and data quality for future releases. There is a lot of work being done within ONS to ensure that sources being used in ABPEs are monitored and evaluated. Evidence for user needs was collected through consultations and includes the timeliness and accessibility of publications.

The methods for producing ABPEs, alongside any supporting quality information for publications or revision plans, will be comprehensive and transparent to maintain clarity with users. There will be systems in place to make the production of ABPEs and their supporting information reliable and reproducible. There are also plans for future improvement of ABPEs by also publishing special estimates, such as daytime or seasonal population estimates.

ONS is aiming for the ABPEs to become the official population estimates of England and Wales and achieve the quality required for accredited official statistics by summer 2025.

SS asked what changes in the time-series should we expect with the transition to ABPEs and whether ONS will apply any smoothing techniques. NH replied that the ABPEs will be based on the 2021 Census, so there will be no step-changes in the transition from mid-year estimates to ABPEs.

SS mentioned that this would mean their existing population estimates would have to be revised from Census 2021 onwards, and that some communication from ONS on doing this would be helpful. GH agreed with the importance of having communication for revising existing outputs and the transition to ABPEs.

JE asked what will happen with small-area population estimates. NH replied that small-area estimates for mid-2024, mid-2023 and revised mid-2022 estimates will be published in September 2025. This is to align with updated migration estimates being published in May. SL asked if the date September 2025 is finalised. NH replied that it is provisional.

SK and SL commented that this approach would impact the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation due out before end of 2025 so clarity on timing of small area population estimates was important. JE added that not having access to small area estimates for single age and sex for mid-2023 would impact work on comparing differences between traditional and ABPE estimates. It would be better to have both ABPE and traditional estimates to make comparisons and lessen the impact on existing work.

NH wanted to understand what geographic levels people would be most interested in having population estimates for. JE commented that electoral ward level would be helpful alongside LA geographies. VD and LR also agreed; LR adding that elected members would require information at the electoral ward level.

DB, SHa and MP provided an update on the national population projections for Wales, which were published in line with ONS publication of National Population Projections for the UK on 28 January. Welsh Government has produced a release specifically for Wales. It was noted that the projections have associated uncertainties and are not forecasts.

Wales’s total population is projected to increase by 5.9% to 3.32 million by mid-2032, which is lower than England but higher than Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Projections of key components of population change (births, deaths and net migration) are shown in the slides. Deaths are projected to increase and be higher than births whilst Net International Migration is projected to decrease by 58%, back to lever seen from mid-2011 to mid-2021.

Subnational projections are planned to be produced by the end of Summer or beginning of Autumn. There will also be a short questionnaire in the next demographic newsletter for users to provide feedback for future projections.

JE commented that the next set of projections, based off ABPE work by ONS, will feed into wellbeing assessments; there might be a large discrepancy in these projections and mid-year estimates. It would be useful to know how any differences would be communicated with users.

NH replied that there are a lot of data dependencies to get through before preparing subnational projections. Subnational projections and household projections need to follow on from the mid-year estimates mentioned above, which are affected by the data available at the time of starting them.

JE added that her concern is for users looking more in the medium-term, such as for planning hospital bed provision, care homes or schools. Since approaches to planning works is more bottom-up in Wales, JE is more concerned about how methodological changes in mid-year estimates might impact users and peoples’ perception of the population. It would be useful to know how limitations and assumptions will be communicated.

NH agreed, the population projections are based on assumptions, and it would be helpful to communicate the impacts of these.

NWV asked how easy it would be to look at small areas within their local authority and how the new changes to projections impact this.

MP replied that the process for calculating projections at the local authority level has been changed to be more reproducible. The code currently would need to be amended to be able to create bespoke, local-level projections, but they would be happy to share the current code with users. MP and team are keen for user feedback and discussions to ensure that new projections are meeting user needs.

JE shared that a key concern for producing population projections at sub-local authority level would be getting reliable input data.

Please share any further feedback or questions on the subnational population projections to the mailbox: stats.popcensus@gov.wales. 

CT, NWV and SK each explained their experiences of using the ABPEs for their respective local authorities. These local authorities have been part of the pilot for looking at the Dynamic Population Model (DPM) and ABPEs.

The local authorities have been involved in the process by attending discussions, workshops and looking at preliminary results of the ABPEs. Overall, this was a positive experience and allowed the local authorities to feel much closer to the process including having the change to highlight any concerns. ONS was supportive throughout the process and helped to answer questions or issues.

CT noted that the potential reduction in time lags, of when population estimates are published to six months, was seen as a valuable improvement for local authorities to capture shifts in population trends.

NWV noted that the process for producing the estimates was highly complex, and ONS was helpful in explaining the methodology.

The local authorities involved also noted some challenges and concerns from the process.

A recurring issue that was highlighted was the differences of the ABPE estimates to traditional Census-based estimates. NWV and SK both noted that it is difficult to know what is correct, or ‘the truth’ - especially because there are not enough independent sources to compare the estimates to.

The largest differences were seen in the 20 to 24 age group for which there did not seem to be an explanation.

CT commented that there were questions about the differences between the mid-year estimates and the ABPEs, as the ABPEs are generally lower than the mid-year estimates. It was noted that this could have an impact on funding allocations.

NWV also highlighted the challenge of producing admin-based estimates of the population by Welsh-speaking ability due to the lack of admin data.

NH found the feedback helpful and agreed with the comments. The ABPEs would be expected to stop inter-censal drift that would be seen in traditional MYEs, which would lead to differences from Census-based estimates. However, determining whether the differences are accurate comes down to the uncertainties in measures and quality of indicators.

NH also noted that areas with the highest mobility, such as student populations, are the hardest to estimate.

SS asked when the population denominators used in other ONS outputs will be moved to be ABPEs.

NH responded that once ABPEs become the official estimates, they will ideally be moved over before each outputs’ publication date. However, some economic statistics do take longer to include denominators and weights. This may mean that some outputs and projections might take longer to move over fully to ABPEs.

SL noted a request for the National Survey for Wales to be on next meetings’ agenda. There should also be information on the new LSOA names coming out shortly.

The previous action point on the rounding of homelessness data will be taken back to the housing statistics team.

The next meeting will take place on Thursday 5 June 2025. Please email KASevents@gov.wales to request any further items for next meetings’ agenda. 

[1] Make sure well-being assessments are included in all future meeting agendas (Secretariat)

[2] Follow up on the transformed Labour Force Survey and expect an update in Spring 2025 regarding future changes (Chair)

[3] Add National Survey for Wales as a future agenda item (Secretariat)