Jayne Bryant MS, Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government
Today, the Welsh Government published a statistical article presenting new Estimates of additional housing need (2025-based).
The 2025‑based housing need estimates show how many extra housing units may be needed in Wales over the next 20 years. These replace the 2019-based estimates.
The figures are based on two parts:
- existing unmet need, estimated from households that are both overcrowded and concealed, and homeless households in temporary accommodation; and
- newly arising need, estimated from 2022-based household projections
To make sure the estimates are robust and transparent, a technical group was set up at the start of the work and has supported previous versions. The group includes analytical and policy experts from Welsh Government and local government and advises on methods and technical issues.
Although the methodology is broadly the same as for the 2019-based estimates, some changes have been made to the data sources and assumptions. For example, existing unmet need is presented as a single estimate rather than being spread over an assumed number of years. The sources used to estimate future changes in income and private rent prices have also been updated to reflect the best available data.
More detail on all changes is provided in the quality report.
Main points
- There is currently an estimated existing unmet need of 9,400 housing units.
- Estimates of existing unmet need have increased by 64% since the 2019‑based estimates, due to a rise in homeless households in temporary accommodation.
- On average, between 7,800 and 9,300 additional housing units are estimated to be needed annually over the five year period from July 2025 to June 2030, with a central estimate of 8,700 from newly arising need.
- The estimated newly arising need for July 2025 to June 2030 is higher than in the 2019‑based estimates.
- This increase reflects higher projected household growth in the 2022‑based household projections compared with the 2018‑based projections used previously; household projections are mainly driven by population projections.
- Growth in newly arising need is projected to slow down over the next 20 years, in line with a gradual reduction in projected household growth in the 2022‑based projections.
- Over the next five years, around 65% of newly arising need is estimated to be for market housing, and around 35% for affordable housing.
- Separately all existing unmet need is assumed as for affordable housing and is presented as a single estimate rather than being spread over an assumed number of years.
The figures indicate the estimated number of households in need of an additional housing unit over the period but should not be interpreted or used as housing targets. They are based on assumptions and do not represent policy commitments or planning requirements.
The data in the release forms part of the evidence base for future planning in Wales and is used by the Welsh Government and housing organisations to produce a picture of the overall need for additional housing units in Wales. The data will be used to inform any future review of the National Development Framework, future policy development as well as informing Future Trends reporting (as required by the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.
A Chief Statistician’s blog, published alongside the estimates, explains more about the estimates.