Fuel poverty modelled estimates for Wales (headline results): as at October 2024
This short report gives modelled estimates on the number of households that were unable to afford to keep their home adequately heated as at October 2024.
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Introduction
This is the First Release of modelled estimates showing the number of households that were unable to afford to keep their home adequately heated in 2024, together with an assessment of the potential impact of energy prices and inflation on fuel poverty. More detailed analysis will be published in October.
These headline figures are being published ahead of detailed analysis, to meet user need/interest. Detailed analysis will be published in October. This will be accompanied by a detailed methodology report and interactive dashboard. Due to differences in methodology, the 2024 modelled estimates of fuel poverty cannot be directly compared with previous figures, but broad comparisons can be made.
Background information
The Welsh Government committed to undertake a periodic review of the plan to tackle fuel poverty 2021 to 2035. The plan was published in March 2021, with the first review published in June 2025. The 2024 modelled estimates of fuel poverty were commissioned from the Building Research Establishment (BRE) to inform the review and to assist in the preparation of interim targets.
Methodology
Fuel poverty estimates for Wales have been re-calculated by BRE to the October 2024 position, using the Welsh Housing Conditions Survey 2017-18 base data and modelling changes to household incomes and fuel prices between 2017 and October 2024. October 2024 was chosen as the reference point, as it falls in line with the energy price cap reviews. Energy efficiency improvements to homes have been applied in line with the measures likely to have been installed in the housing stock during that time[footnote 1]. The 2024 figures have been calculated under the full income definition[footnote 2] and household energy requirements were modelled using the Building Research Establishment Domestic Energy Model (BREDEM 2012 version 1.1).
Definitions
A household is regarded as being in fuel poverty if they are unable to keep their home warm at a reasonable cost. In Wales, this is measured as any household that would have to spend more than 10% of their income on maintaining a satisfactory heating regime[footnote 3]. Any household having to spend more than 20% is defined as being in severe fuel poverty. A household needing to spend between 8 and 10% is classed as being at risk of fuel poverty (i.e. they are susceptible to relatively small changes in income or energy costs).
Vulnerable households are defined as those with a person aged 60 years or over, a dependent child or children under the age of 16 years, a single person under 25 and/or a person living with a long term illness or who is disabled.
A lower income household is defined as one whose income is less than 60% of the median household income in the UK before housing costs as published annually in the HBAI report[footnote 4].
Main results
In October 2024
- 340,000 households in Wales were estimated to be living in fuel poverty, equivalent to 25% of households.
- 63,000 households were estimated to be living in severe fuel poverty, equivalent to 5% of households.
- 215,000 households were estimated to be at risk of fuel poverty, equivalent to 16% of households.
- 304,000 vulnerable households in Wales were estimated to be living in fuel poverty, equivalent to 26% of vulnerable households.
- 46,000 vulnerable households were estimated to be living in severe fuel poverty, equivalent to 4% of vulnerable households.
- 198,000 vulnerable households were estimated to be at risk of fuel poverty, equivalent to 17% of vulnerable households.
Potential impact of energy prices
In 2024/25, the average household energy bill based on standard energy consumption was estimated to be £1,850. This is 37% higher than in 2021/22, when the average household bill was £1,360 [footnote 5]. As a result, more households in Wales now have to spend more than 10% of their income on energy bills, which puts them in fuel poverty. This leaves less income for essentials like food, rent, and other basic needs. Further analysis on the impact of household incomes on fuel poverty to follow in October.
The rise in energy costs is mainly caused by global issues. There have been disruptions in the worldwide energy supply, inflation has pushed up prices, and problems with supply chains have made it even more expensive to get fuel to the UK. These factors have made energy bills unpredictable, and many families are struggling to keep up with the increased costs.
Potential impact of inflation
Inflation has increased the cost of living in Wales since 2021, affecting household budgets and making essentials more expensive. In 2021, the annual Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) inflation rate was 2.5%, but by 2022, it had increased to 7.9%, driven by rising energy prices, food costs, and supply chain disruptions [footnote 6]. Although inflation has eased slightly in 2024 to 3.3%, it remains high, meaning families are paying more for everyday necessities than in 2021. This has reduced the purchasing power of wages and benefits, leaving households with less money to cover rising energy costs.
Next steps
Detailed analysis of these modelled estimates are due in October. The intention is to cover:
- comparisons with other UK Nations
- trends over time
- fuel poverty by household characteristics
- fuel poverty by dwelling characteristics;
- a more detailed discussion on the factors that drive fuel poverty – income, fuel prices and energy efficiency, and how these have changed since the previous estimates were produced
Appendix A: summary of methodology
Below is a brief summary containing descriptions of the methodology used to calculate the 2024 modelled estimates of fuel poverty figures for Wales under the 10% definition. A full methodology report will be published alongside detailed analysis in Autumn.
Definitions
A household is defined as being fuel poor if they spent more than 10% of their income on fuel. This is calculated using the equation below.
If the ratio from the above equation is greater than 0.1, the household is defined as fuel poor. The total fuel costs for a household are modelled using standard heating regimes that consider how much money the household would be required to spend on fuel costs in order to reach the established standards for comfort based on a satisfactory heating regime. A ‘Satisfactory heating regime’ is 23°C in the living room and 18°C in other rooms, required for 16 hours in a 24-hour period in households with older (a person aged 60 and over) or disabled (a person living with a long-term limiting illness or who is disabled) people. For all other households, 21°C in the living room and 18°C in other rooms is required for nine hours in every 24-hour period on weekdays, and 16 hours in a 24-hour period on weekends.
Any household having to spend more than 20% is defined as being in severe fuel poverty.
A household needing to spend between 8 and 10% is classed as being at risk of fuel poverty (i.e. they are susceptible to relatively small changes in income or energy costs).
Using the WHCS 2017-18 data
The data currently used for fuel poverty estimates is based on older data sources (including the Welsh Housing Conditions Survey 2017-18) that have been rebased using administrative data to reflect more recent living standards. While this remains a robust approach, our confidence in the estimates diminishes as we move further from the 2017–18 baseline. This is due to the growing number of assumptions and adjustments required, which introduces increasing uncertainty. A new Housing Survey is currently planned for 2027-28, which will provide more up-to-date raw data to underpin future fuel poverty estimates and improve their accuracy and reliability.
Calculating the main components of fuel poverty
There are three main components used to calculate fuel poverty: income, energy prices and energy requirements. Below is a summary of how these components are calculated.
Income
Two different definitions of income are required.
Basic income
This is calculated by totalling the personal incomes of everyone in the household (aged 16 and over), plus any benefit or other income source payments that the household receives (from earned income, state benefits and savings etc.) to provide the Primary Benefit Unit (PBU) income. Income from other benefit units and the Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) if applicable is then added to give the ‘basic income’.
Full income
This is built upon ‘basic income’ by the addition of housing related income, including: housing related benefits (HB), Council Tax Benefit (CTB), and the deduction of Council Tax payable. This is the ‘Full household income’.
Energy prices
The fuel price element of fuel poverty calculation produces fuel prices which can readily be combined with household energy requirement outputs to produce fuel costs.
The National Survey for Wales collects information of the method of payments of gas and electricity, but does not collect information on the exact tariff or supplier. Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) data sources provides gas and electricity ‘average unit price’ and ‘average fixed costs’ (standing charges) for energy supply regions across the UK. The combination of data collected by the National Survey for Wales, and the Quarterly Energy Prices[footnote 7] publication provided by DESNZ are then combined calculate a final fuel price figure. Other data for non-metered fuels is provided from the Sutherland Tables publication and for some fuels, SAP 2012 default values are used and are inflated using Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Energy requirements
The amount of fuel required to provide the energy needs of each household is one of the components of fuel poverty and, combined with fuel prices, produces the modelled fuel bill.
Under the fuel poverty definition, the energy required to heat and power a home can be grouped into four categories:
- Space heating: Es (GJ)
- Water heating: Ew (GJ)
- Lights and appliances: ELA (GJ)
- Cooking: Ec (GJ)
The Building Research Establishment Domestic Energy Model (BREDEM) methodology[footnote 8] is used to predict the energy requirements of a household where:
Total household energy requirements = ES + EW + ELA + EC
Total household energy requirements include space and water heating (to meet defined standards), energy for lights and appliances (including requirements for pumps, fans and electric showers, and energy generated by renewables), and energy for cooking. The amount of energy required to heat a dwelling will depend on the building specification such as insulation levels, heating systems, the geographical location of the dwelling, and construction type. A household’s demand for energy will depend on the number of people within the household and the lifestyle and habits of these individuals. Information from the National Survey for Wales and the Welsh Housing Conditions Survey are used to provide details about both dwellings and households. Reduced Data SAP (RdSAP) assumptions are used to deal with missing data and can be found in the SAP procedure document[footnote 9]. It should be noted that the figures now incorporate the revised U-values as published in RdSAP v9.93.
Data on the occupancy characteristics, and region, are provided by the National Survey for Wales. The Welsh Housing Conditions Survey then provides information about the physical characteristics of the home, which are used to inform the modelling of household energy use for fuel poverty, including:
- detailed information about the dimensions
- dwelling type and age
- heating and hot water systems
- dwelling fabric and exposure/shading
- energy efficiency measures
Quality and methodology information
Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics
Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.
All of our statistics are produced and published in accordance with a number of statements and protocols to enhance trustworthiness, quality and value. These are set out in the Welsh Government’s Statement of Compliance.
These official statistics demonstrate the standards expected around trustworthiness, quality and public value in the following ways.
Trustworthiness
We have made these statistics available in a timely manner to meet user needs. We have followed relevant protocols for releasing these statistics, ensuring that circulation before publication has been restricted to eligible recipients only.
Quality
We have made the limitations of this data clear to users (for example, highlighting where comparisons cannot be made across previous estimates due to methodology). A further quality and methodology report will be published in October.
Value
We have made every effort to ensure these statistics are accessible to users, using clear and succinct language (for example, we have expanded commentary to include more policy and economical context). This will be supported by our Fuel poverty in Wales: interactive dashboard updated in October.
You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.
Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG)
The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of Wales. The Act puts in place seven wellbeing goals for Wales. These are for a more equal, prosperous, resilient, healthier and globally responsible Wales, with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. Under section (10)(1) of the Act, the Welsh Ministers must (a) publish indicators (“national indicators”) that must be applied for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the wellbeing goals, and (b) lay a copy of the national indicators before Senedd Cymru. Under section 10(8) of the Well-being of Future Generations Act, where the Welsh Ministers revise the national indicators, they must as soon as reasonably practicable (a) publish the indicators as revised and (b) lay a copy of them before the Senedd. These national indicators were laid before the Senedd in 2021. The indicators laid on 14 December 2021 replace the set laid on 16 March 2016.
Information on the indicators, along with narratives for each of the wellbeing goals and associated technical information is available in the Wellbeing of Wales report.
Further information on the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.
The statistics included in this release could also provide supporting narrative to the national indicators and be used by public services boards in relation to their local wellbeing assessments and local wellbeing plans.
Footnotes
[1] Based on trends from previous Welsh Housing Condition Surveys, data from the English Housing Survey, solar PV deployment data, and information on UK Government schemes such as ECO and the Renewable Heat Incentive.
[2] See Appendix A of Fuel poverty modelled estimates for Wales: as at October 2021 for definition.
[3] A ‘Satisfactory heating regime’ is 23°C in the living room and 18°C in other rooms, required for 16 hours in a 24-hour period in households with older (a person aged 60 and over) or disabled (a person living with a long-term limiting illness or who is disabled) people. For all other households, 21°C in the living room and 18°C in other rooms is required for nine hours in every 24-hour period on weekdays, and 16 hours in a 24-hour period on weekends. Tackling fuel poverty 2021 to 2035 | GOV.WALES
[4] Households below average income (HBAI) statistics (Department for Work and Pensions). A household is said to be in relative low income if their net equivalised household income is below a threshold set at 60% of the average (median) UK household income.
[5] Annual domestic energy bills (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero). Average annual energy bills data based on the fixed consumption levels (3,400 kWh for electricity, 11,200 kWh for gas) has shown volatility. 2021/22: £1,360, 2022/23: £2,370, 2023/24: £2,240 and 2024/25: £1850
[6] Inflation and price indices (ONS). The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one's own home, known as owner occupiers' housing (OOH) costs, along with Council Tax. Both are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.
[7] The metered fuel price data used in the fuel poverty calculations are derived from the DESNZ quarterly energy prices, in tables QEP 2.2.4 and QEP 2.3.4. Fuel poverty modelled estimates for Wales (headline results): as at October 2021 (footnote 10)
[8] The BREDEM methodology used is described in Henderson J, Hart J, BREDEM 2012 A technical description of the BRE Domestic Energy Model, v1.1, January 2015.
[9] BRE 2017. Appendix S: Reduced Data SAP for existing dwellings, RdSAP 2012 v9.93. Fuel poverty modelled estimates for Wales (headline results): as at October 2021 (footnote 12)