Local authority household projections for Wales: 2022-based
The 2022-based projections estimate the number of households and assume that past trends in births, deaths, and migration continue.
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Introduction
The 2022-based household projections provide an indication of the future number of households, and their composition, based on population projections and assumptions about households from recent censuses. These projections supersede the previous 2018-based projections.
We have also published 2022-based local authority population projections for Wales alongside these projections.
Household projections are subject to uncertainty and are based on assumptions about future population and household composition. They are not forecasts, and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors, such as the number of homes built, may have on the number of households. Instead, they indicate how many additional households would form if the population of Wales continues to change as it did between mid-2018 and mid-2022, and keeps forming households as it did between 2001, 2011 and 2021.
These household projections use data about household membership rates from the latest available censuses of the population and apply them to the latest local authority population projections.
The ‘principal' projection is the main projection, and is based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality, migration and household composition considered to best reflect demographic patterns at that time. It can be considered to be a ‘central’ projection. Most of the analyses below are based on the principal projections unless stated otherwise.
Other projections, or ‘variant’ projections, are also available alongside the principal projection. They are based on alternative future scenarios of fertility, mortality and migration compared with the principal projection. These provide an indication of uncertainty, but do not represent upper or lower limits of future demographic behaviour.
Projections are available for the 25-year period on StatsWales, from mid-2022 to mid-2047. However, this report focusses on the first 10 years of the projection period as projections tend to become increasingly uncertain in the longer-term, as much may change over that timescale.
Household projections may differ from published household estimates now and in the near future. We recommend using the most recent household estimates for all years where they are available.
The Welsh Government publishes separate estimates of additional housing need, which take into account newly arising need, from household projections, as well as existing unmet need. These projections will be used to produce updated estimates of additional housing need and will be published in 2026.
We have made some changes to the methods for calculating these projections. Further information can be found in the quality and methodology information section.
Main points
Between mid-2022 and mid-2032:
- the number of households in Wales is projected to increase by around 98,500, or 7.2%, to 1.46 million, driven mostly by an increase in one-person households.
- the number of households is projected to increase in all local authorities.
- the local authorities projected to see the largest percentage increases in the number of households are the Vale of Glamorgan (up 11.7%) and Cardiff (up 11.1%).
- the number of one-adult households with no children is projected to increase the most of all household types.
- one-person households consisting of a person aged 60 years old or older are projected to account for almost three in five of all these households by mid-2032.
- the number of people living in private households, or ‘the household population’, is projected to increase by around 172,400 (5.6%) to 3.25 million.
Figure 1: percentage change in the number of households between mid-2022 and mid-2032, by local authority
Description of figure 1: a bar chart showing that the number of households is projected to increase in all local authorities during the period mid-2022 to mid-2032, with the largest percentage increases projected to be in Cardiff and neighbouring authorities, the Vale of Glamorgan and Newport.
Source: 2022-based local authority household projections for Wales from the Welsh Government.
2022-based household projections by local authority, household type, year and variant on StatsWales
While the largest increases in the number of households between mid-2022 and mid-2032 are projected to be predominantly in south-east Wales, the smallest increases are generally projected to be in north Wales and in south Wales Valleys areas. The smallest percentage increases in the number of households are projected to be in Wrexham (up 3.7%), Caerphilly (up 3.8%) and Blaenau Gwent (up 4.0%).
The projected trends in the numbers of households are broadly similar to the trends seen in the local authority population projections. The local authorities whose populations are projected to see the largest percentage increases during the period mid-2022 to mid-2032 are the Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff and Newport. Conversely, the local authorities whose populations are projected to see the smallest percentage increases are Merthyr Tydfil, Caerphilly and Wrexham.
Figure 2: projected number of households by local authority, mid-2032
Description of figure 2: a bar chart showing the projected number of households for each local authority by mid-2032. Cardiff is projected to continue to have the highest number of households, at around 169,000 households. This is nearly 50% more households than the next highest local authorities, Swansea and Rhondda Cynon Taf.
Source: 2022-based local authority household projections for Wales from the Welsh Government.
2022-based household projections by local authority, household type, year and variant on StatsWales
The total number of households in Wales is projected to be around 1.46 million by mid-2032. Just over half of all local authorities are projected to have between around 50,000 and around 100,000 households by mid-2032. The projected number of households in Cardiff accounts for 11.6% of all households in Wales in mid-2032.
The local authorities projected to have the least number of households are Merthyr Tydfil (around 26,700), Blaenau Gwent (around 31,600) and the Isle of Anglesey (around 32,300).
Projections by type of household
Figure 3: projected number of households by type of household, mid-2032
Description of figure 3: a bar chart showing that it is projected that the most common types of households will continue to be one-person and two-person households with no children in mid-2032.
Source: 2022-based local authority household projections for Wales from the Welsh Government.
2022-based household projections by local authority, household type, year and variant on StatsWales
By mid-2032, the number of one-adult households and two-adult households with no children is projected to account for almost two-thirds of all households, at 33.4% and 31.5% respectively.
The number of households with children is projected to be around 369,600 by mid-2032, accounting for just over a quarter of all households. The number of households without children is projected to be nearly 1.1 million.
Figure 4: percentage change in the number of household by type of household, mid-2022 to mid-2032
Description of figure 4: a bar chart showing that the number of households is projected to increase between mid-2022 and mid-2032 for all household types. The largest percentage increase is projected to be for one-adult households with no children, up 11.2%.
Source: 2022-based local authority household projections for Wales from the Welsh Government.
2022-based household projections by local authority, household type, year and variant on StatsWales
The number of households with children is projected to increase by around 2.9% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, from around 359,200 to around 369,600. During the same period, the number of households with no children is projected to increase by 8.8%, from around 1.0 million to around 1.1 million.
The Office for National Statistics’s (ONS) 2022-based national population projections show that the number of children and young people aged 0 to 15 years old in Wales is projected to decrease during this period by 10.2%, which will likely affect the number of household with and without children in the future.
One-person households
The number of one-person households is projected to increase in all local authorities between mid-2022 and mid-2032, with the largest percentage increases projected to be in the Vale of Glamorgan (up 17.0%), Pembrokeshire (up 16.9%) and Merthyr Tydfil (up 15.0%).
Figure 5: projected number of one-person households by age group, mid-2022 and mid-2032
Description of figure 5: a clustered bar chart showing that the number of one-person households is projected to increase for all age groups apart from ages 45 to 59 years old between mid-2022 and mid-2032. The largest projected increases are for ages 60 to 74 years old and aged 75 years old or older, up 17.0% and 16.5% respectively.
Source: 2022-based local authority household projections for Wales from the Welsh Government.
2022-based household projections by local authority, household type, year and variant on StatsWales
By mid-2032, one-person households consisting of a person aged 60 years old or older are projected to account for almost three in five of all one-person households.
The number of one-person households consisting of a person aged 60 to 74 years old is projected to increase in every local authority. The largest increases are projected to be in Pembrokeshire (up 25.6%), Bridgend (up 23.1%) and Denbighshire (up 21.8%). The smallest increase is projected to be in Rhondda Cynon Taf (up 12.4%).
The number of one-person households consisting of a person aged 75 years old or older is also projected to increase in every local authority. The largest increases are projected to be in the Vale of Glamorgan (up 25.3%), Pembrokeshire (up 22.2%) and Cardiff (up 21.5%). The smallest increase is projected to be in Blaenau Gwent (up 5.8%).
Household population
The household population is the estimated number of people living in private households. This is calculated by subtracting the population living in communal establishments from the total population estimate.
Communal establishments include residential care homes, university halls of residence, boarding schools and prisons, for example. As communal establishment population estimates are not available on an annual basis, assumed numbers are calculated based on census data.
Figure 6: percentage change in the projected private household population by local authority, mid-2022 to mid-2032
Description of figure 6: a bar chart showing that the private household population is projected to increase in every local authority between mid-2022 and mid-2032.
Source: 2022-based local authority household projections for Wales from the Welsh Government.
The local authorities whose private household populations are projected to see the largest percentage increases are Cardiff (up 10.9%), Newport (up 10.2%) and the Vale of Glamorgan (up 9.9%). The local authorities projected to see the smallest increases are Merthyr Tydfil (up 0.9%), Wrexham (up 1.1%) and Caerphilly (up 1.2%).
This broadly reflects the projected change in the population in the 2022-based local authority population projections.
Average household size, measured in terms of persons per household, is calculated by dividing the private household population by the number of households. The average household size in Wales is projected to decrease from 2.26 persons per household in mid-2022 to 2.22 persons per household in mid-2032. It is projected to decrease in every local authority except Newport during this period. Newport is projected to have the largest average household size of 2.39 persons per household by mid-2032. Conwy continues to have the smallest projected household size of 2.11 persons per household by mid-2032.
Variant projections
Other projections, or ‘variant’ projections, are available alongside the principal projection. They are based on alternative future scenarios of fertility, mortality and migration compared with the principal projection.
These provide an indication of uncertainty, but do not represent upper or lower limits of future demographic behaviour. Further details about these variant projections can be found in the Quality and methodology information section below.
Figure 7: variant household projections, mid-2022 to mid-2032 [Note 1]
Description of figure 7: a line chart showing the differences in the projected number of households for Wales for in the principal projection, and under the high population, low population, zero migration, 10-year average migration and 15-year average migration variant scenarios for the period mid-2022 to mid-2032. The principal projection lies between the high and low population variants.
[Note 1]: The y-axis does not start at zero.
Source: 2022-based local authority household projections for Wales from the Welsh Government.
2022-based household projections by local authority, household type, year and variant on StatsWales
Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the number of households in Wales is projected to increase by 7.2% in the principal projection. For the high and low population variants, the number of households is projected to increase by 7.6% and 6.6%, respectively, during the same period. Under the zero migration variant, the number of households is projected to decrease by 0.6%, while the 10-year and 15-year average migration variants project increases in the number of households of 5.2% and 4.7% respectively.
Under the high population projection, for the period mid-2022 to mid-2032, the number of households is projected to increase in all local authorities. Projected growth in the number of households is around 0.4 percentage points higher than the principal projection for all local authorities.
Under the low population projection, for the period mid-2022 to mid-2032, the number of households is projected to increase in all local authorities. Projected growth in the number of households is between 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points lower than the principal projection for all local authorities.
Under the zero migration projection, for the period mid-2022 to mid-2032, the number of households is projected to decrease in 16 out of 22 local authorities. Projected growth in the number of households varies between an increase of 5.9% in Cardiff and a decrease of 5.7% in Conwy.
Under the 10-year average migration projection, for the period mid-2022 to mid-2032, the number of households is projected to increase in all local authorities. Projected growth in the number of households varies between 8.9% in the Vale of Glamorgan and 2.0% in the Isle of Anglesey.
Under the 15-year average migration projection, for the period mid-2022 to mid-2032, the number of households is projected to increase in all local authorities. Projected growth in the number of households varies between 7.2% in Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan and 1.7% in the Isle of Anglesey.
Comparisons with the 2018-based local authority household projections
Following Census 2021, the census-based 2021 mid-year estimates were compared with the 2021 mid-year estimates rolled forward from Census 2011. This reconciliation of mid-year population estimates with Census 2021 found that mid-year estimates for Wales rolled forward from Census 2011 were around 66,600 higher than those based on Census 2021.
The rebasing of mid-year population estimates following Census 2021 therefore adjusted the mid-year estimates to align with Census 2021, revising the components of change for the mid-year estimates.
The method of how we calculate household membership rates has changed for this publication. Household membership rates are now calculated using data from the 2001, 2011 and 2021 censuses, compared with only the 2001 and 2011 censuses in the 2018-based projections. Further information on this change can be found in the quality and methodology information section.
The differences between the 2018-based and 2022-based local authority projections, therefore, reflect not only the change in demographic trends seen during this time period, but also the change in the methods between the two sets of projections, as well as the change in the base year of the projection.
There have been some notable underlying demographic changes in the period between mid-2018 and mid-2022. At a Wales level, the birth rate has continued to fall, with the total fertility rate falling from 1.63 in 2018 to 1.46 in 2022. Improvements in life expectancy have stalled, while migration patterns have fluctuated substantially in recent years.
Patterns of international migration have changed. Net international migration is estimated to have continued to increase in Wales broadly until mid-2016, after which it decreased overall for several years, dropping to its lowest level in recent years by mid-2020 during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
However, net international migration increased significantly between mid-2020 and mid-2023. These changes resulted in Wales’s population in mid-2022 being estimated at 3.13 million, which is 35,900 (1.1%) lower than was projected by mid-2022 in the 2018-based national population projections.
Figure 8: percentage difference between the projected number of households in mid-2032 using 2018-based and 2022-based projections, by local authority
Description of figure 8: a bar chart showing that the projected number of households in Wales for mid-2032 is 1.6% higher in the 2022-based projections than in the 2018-based projections. The 2022-based projection is higher for 16 out of the 22 local authorities.
Source: 2022-based local authority household projections for Wales from the Welsh Government.
The percentage difference between the 2018-based and the 2022-based projections is greatest in Ceredigion, Denbighshire and Monmouthshire. The number of households in each of these areas is projected to be higher in the 2022-based projections by mid-2032 compared with the 2018-based projections.
There are six local authorities where the number of households is projected to be lower by mid-2032 in the 2022-based projections compared with the 2018-based projections. However, all of these areas are still projected to see an increase in the number of households from mid-2022 to mid-2032.
Quality and methodology information
A household is defined as one person living alone, or a group of people, not necessarily related, living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room or dining area.
This includes sheltered accommodation units in an establishment where 50% or more have their own kitchens, irrespective of whether there are other communal facilities. It also includes all people living in caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence. This will include anyone who has no other usual residence elsewhere in the UK.
Variant projections
The range of variant projections include a ‘high population’ variant, based on high fertility and high life expectancy. The migration assumptions are the same as the principal projection.
The ‘low population’ variant is based on low fertility and low life expectancy. The migration assumptions are the same as the principal projection.
The ‘zero migration’ variant, or natural change only, illustrates the projected population if there was no inward or outward migration in the future.
The ‘10-year average migration’ variant uses 10 years of data for both international and internal migration, rather than 5 years of data that are used in the principal projection. This evens out a potentially atypical 5-year period. However, it also risks dampening the effect of more systemic changes that have occurred over the 10 years.
The ‘15-year average migration’ variant uses 15 years of data for both international and internal migration, rather than 5 years of data that are used in the principal projection. Similarly, this evens out a potentially atypical 5-year period. However, it also risks dampening the effect of more systemic changes that have occurred over the 15 years.
Technical report
To accompany the data in this release, we will be updating our technical report for subnational population and household projections. This will be published in the coming months. More detailed information about quality and methods for the projections, including the underlying assumptions, will be available here.
Official statistics status
All official statistics should show the standards of the Code of Practice for Statistics (UK Statistics Authority).
These are accredited official statistics. They were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in 2011. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.
It is Welsh Government’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected of accreditation. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with OSR promptly. Accreditation can be cancelled or suspended at any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored.
Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.
Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics
Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.
All of our statistics are produced and published in accordance with a number of statements and protocols to enhance trustworthiness, quality and value. These are set out in the Welsh Government’s Statement of Compliance.
These accredited official statistics (OSR) demonstrate the standards expected around trustworthiness, quality and public value in the following ways.
Trustworthiness
Household projections are based on historical trends and provide an indication of the future number of households and their composition in Wales for the period mid-2022 to mid-2047. They are based on population projections and historical information about household composition and characteristics. These household projections are produced by applying assumptions about household composition to projected population data, by age and sex. The household projections therefore reflect changes in household composition as well as trends in the underlying population projections. The relative impacts of the migration, mortality, fertility and household formation assumptions on the growth in household numbers will vary between local authorities.
Specifically, these household projections are calculated by:
- subtracting the assumed population living in communal establishments from the estimated population by age group and sex to estimate the number of people living in private households.
- using historical data to calculate household membership rates for mid-2022 to mid-2047.
- multiplying the estimated number of people living in private households by the projected household membership rates.
- dividing the results out by household size, then aggregating by age group, sex and household type to give the projected total number of households.
This process was carried out using the available local authority population projections for mid-2022 to mid-2047 for each local authority in Wales.
Quality
The published figures provided are compiled by professional analysts using the latest available data and applying methods using their professional judgement and analytical skillset. Statistics published by the Welsh Government adhere to the Statistical Quality Management Strategy which supplements the Quality pillar of the Code of Practice for Statistics (UK Statistics Authority) and the European Statistical System principles of quality for statistical outputs.
Validation checks are performed by Welsh Government statisticians. The statistical release is then drafted, signed off by senior statisticians and published in line with the statement on confidentiality and data access which is informed by the trustworthiness pillar contained in the Code of Practice for Statistics (UK Statistics Authority).
The methods for calculating these household projections were developed in close collaboration with the Wales Sub-national Projections (WaSP) group, which includes local authority and national park officials in Wales. This group is a forum for technical discussion on the methods and to agree the assumptions and base data used. Members of WaSP include representatives with knowledge of and/or experience of demographic data and population and household projections.
As part of the development work for these household projections, the WaSP group agreed to the use of 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census data as the historical basis for household membership rates. A weighted combination of two sets of projected membership rates was used, which were produced using a modified two-point exponential model. One exponential model uses membership rates from the 2001 and 2011 censuses, and the other model uses membership rates from the 2011 and 2021 censuses.
This followed extensive testing of different statistical models with census data for 2001, 2011 and 2021 in order to base household membership rates on trends from all three censuses. From this, a weighted two-point exponential model was chosen to produce the household membership rates. For these estimates, the weights used were 75% for the membership rates using 2011 and 2021 census data, and 25% for the membership rates using 2001 and 2011 census data.
Further information will be published in the technical report.
Value
The purpose of the statistical release is to provide evidence for planning services and estimating future needs at a national and local level, to inform local, regional and national planning, and for the onward calculation of statistics, such as estimates of additional housing need.
You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.
Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG)
The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of Wales. The Act puts in place seven wellbeing goals for Wales. These are for a more equal, prosperous, resilient, healthier and globally responsible Wales, with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. Under section (10)(1) of the Act, the Welsh Ministers must (a) publish indicators (“national indicators”) that must be applied for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the wellbeing goals, and (b) lay a copy of the national indicators before Senedd Cymru. Under section 10(8) of the Well-being of Future Generations Act, where the Welsh Ministers revise the national indicators, they must as soon as reasonably practicable (a) publish the indicators as revised and (b) lay a copy of them before the Senedd. These national indicators were laid before the Senedd in 2021. The indicators laid on 14 December 2021 replace the set laid on 16 March 2016.
Information on the indicators, along with narratives for each of the wellbeing goals and associated technical information is available in the Well-being of Wales report.
Further information on the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.
The statistics included in this release could also provide supporting narrative to the national indicators and be used by public services boards in relation to their local wellbeing assessments and local wellbeing plans.
Contact details
Population and Migration Statistics
Email: stats.popcensus@gov.wales
Media: 0300 025 8099
SDR: 104/2025
