Resilience risks in Wales

We live in an era of unprecedented challenges and uncertainty.

Emergencies can happen anywhere, at any time. It is vital that we all understand the risks we face and feel prepared and confident to act when needed.

The Welsh Government plays a specific role in preparing for emergencies in Wales.

The Welsh Government’s National Security and Resilience Division undertakes work to:

• Understanding and preparing for risks by assessing current and emerging risks to Wales 
• Strengthening national preparedness by working partners and communities to build capability, deliver training and exercises, and improve readiness for major incidents and disruptive events. 
• Supporting response, recovery and learning by helping coordinate strategic action during emergencies and ensuring lessons from incidents are used to strengthen Wales's resilience for the future

To support this emergency planning, we have robust internal and external governance structures in place.

At the national level, the Prif Weinidog (First Minister) chairs the Wales Resilience Forum (WRF), which brings together senior representatives from across the responder community. The WRF provides a platform for Welsh Ministers and Chief Officers to discuss strategic emergency planning issues.

The WRF is supported by the Wales Resilience Partnership (WRP), a multi-agency group chaired by Welsh Government. The WRP leads on work to build emergency preparedness across all agencies at the national level.

At the local level, Welsh Government works with our 4 regional Local Resilience Forums (LRFs). Each LRF brings together all responder organisations who have a duty to assess risks and plan for emergencies under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004.

Further information on national and local arrangements can be found at Wales resilience programme.

As emergencies do not respect borders, we work collaboratively with our counterparts in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, where appropriate. Sharing information and good practice across the UK means we can all respond more effectively to incidents.

Most emergencies in Wales are handled at the local level. However, because of size or complexity, some emergencies may need some government coordination or support. Welsh Government’s response will vary depending on the specific incident. Where an incident is UK-wide, we work with UK government and other devolved governments.

When emergencies happen, there is a role for everyone. The emergency services stand ready to respond to any incident, but we all have a role to play in being better prepared for emergencies, so our responders can focus on those who need support the most.

The purpose of this page is to:

• set out the key risks facing Wales
• outline the actions Welsh Government is taking to respond to these key risks

The Wales Resilience Framework sets out our strategic direction for resilience in Wales. It was developed as a collaboration between Welsh Government and the responder community.

The framework sets out our vision, our expectations of ourselves and partners, and how we will continue to work with the emergency responder community to strengthen resilience.

The framework includes a Delivery Plan which outlines key actions Welsh Government and our partners will take over the short, medium and long term.

Understanding risk provides the foundation for emergency planning. It helps to prioritise work and allocate resources effectively.

In Wales we follow the same risk assessment methodology as the UK government. This is set out in the National Risk Register. This means we all understand risk in the same way and can be consistent in responding to emergencies when they do happen.

The National Risk Register applies to Wales. However, the Welsh Government undertakes additional work to reflect the specific circumstances in Wales. This information is held in a classified Wales Risk Register. We rely on the expertise of the LRFs and their Community Risk Registers to support this work.

A better understanding of the risks facing Wales means we can take targeted action to address them. Key risks are set out below.

Animal disease

Agriculture is a major contributor to the Welsh economy. The spread of animal diseases such as foot and mouth and avian influenza can devastate farming communities. These outbreaks can also have broader economic and social impacts, particularly on rural areas.

Welsh Government works with our partner agencies through the Welsh Government Contingency Plan for Exotic Notifiable Diseases of Animals 2018 to address the risks which animal diseases pose. The plan sets out the processes and structures needed to respond to an animal disease outbreak. This includes the roles and responsibilities of government, stakeholders and operational partners.

Welsh Government has produced biosecurity advice on how to minimise the spread of animal disease.

Recovery following any outbreak is also important. Natural Resources Wales (NRW) provides guidance on how to safely dispose of water and disinfectant after an animal disease outbreak.

Cyber incidents

Smart devices like phones and computers are a fundamental part of modern life. Most organisations rely on digital technology to function. A cyber incident could cause significant disruption to our daily lives. It could also disrupt critical infrastructure like utilities or transport networks.

Welsh Government has assessed the cyber resilience of key infrastructure in Wales. This has identified measures that will strengthen their resilience. We have also worked with Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council to establish CymruSOC, our Security Operations Centre. This helps key organisations maintain critical services during cyber incidents.

We are also delivering our Cyber Exercising Strategy. This offers testing and exercising of Cyber Incident Management Plans to local authorities, Fire and Rescue Services and wider public sector bodies across Wales.

Welsh Government has produced videos which help you to protect your devices from cyber threats:

• Building Cyber Resilience on YouTube

You can also find further information on cyber security at:

• Cyber security advice and support on Business Wales
• The National Cyber Security Centre

Loss of electricity

Almost everything we do in our day-to-day lives relies on electricity to function. A widespread and prolonged loss of electricity could have catastrophic consequences. It would lead to widespread disruption to water supply, gas and telecommunications and can also lead to loss of life. It would also have much wider economic and social impacts.

We have never experienced an incident of this kind in Wales or the UK. Our electricity network is one of the most secure and reliable in the world. However, we must make sure we have robust plans in place should the system fail for any reason.

Welsh Government works with UK government and gas and electricity operators to maintain response plans for major supply disruptions.

Following an incident on the gas network, operators may follow emergency procedures to balance and maintain pressure by stopping supply to large industrial users.Critical sites would remain protected, while other disconnections would be evenly distributed.

Should there be a sudden loss of electricity, the network operator would be able to reconfigure their network to stabilise the grid and reconnect most customers.

Other critical sectors also have plans to deal with a localised loss of electricity. For example, the water sector has plans for water supply incidents. This includes mutual aid between companies and alternative supplies that prioritise vulnerable communities. For more information see ‘Loss of water supply’.

Loss of water supply

Water supply disruptions can happen due to a range of reasons. This includes burst water mains, loss of electricity and extreme weather incidents. Longer outages can be disruptive and have significant impacts on people and sectors.

Water companies maintain plans for water supply incidents and regularly exercise and test those plans. Plans cover alternative water supplies, and the prioritisation of vulnerable customers. You can find out more on each of Wales’ water company websites:

• Help and advice on Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water
• Incidents on HD Cymru

Pandemic

Pandemics are one of the most significant risks for the UK. The impacts of a pandemic need a whole government, all-hazards approach to planning.

A future pandemic could come from any source. Welsh Government is taking a ‘One Health’ approach into our pandemic planning. This means we are considering the links between animal, human and environmental health.

A pandemic would have significant UK-wide consequences. Welsh Government is working with UK government and other devolved governments to improve our ability to respond to future pandemics. We are taking a whole-of-society approach, prioritising the needs of the most vulnerable.

We are following the World Health Organization's guidance for health emergency resilience. We use this to guide our investment priorities relating to pandemic preparedness.

Our pandemic planning is informed by learning from the COVID-19 pandemic, the findings of the COVID-19 Public Inquiry, and other incidents and exercises. This is reflected in our UK-wide principles for pandemic preparedness.

Reservoir or dam failure

The failure of a large, raised reservoir would be considered high-risk if it not only damaged property but also endangered human life. In Wales, there are around 270 reservoirs which fall into this risk category and approximately 290,000 people live in areas that could be affected by the failure of a large, raised reservoir. You can read more about reservoir classifications on Natural Resources Wales’ website.

The failure of a dam or retaining wall would cause a huge quantity of water to move at high speed, and could result in significant destruction. This could lead to loss of life and casualties if there is no time to evacuate. It would also cause damage to properties, infrastructure and critical services. There are likely to be major long-lasting economic, environmental and humanitarian implications of such an incident.

Reservoir safety in England and Wales is currently legislated through the Reservoirs Act 1975. In Wales, this legislation applies to around 400 large, raised reservoirs. Such reservoirs are designed or used for collecting 10,000m³ or more of water above the natural level of the surrounding land.

Welsh Government and Natural Resources Wales are part of the joint reservoir safety reform programme, along with Defra and the Environment Agency. Defra established the programme following an incident at Toddbrook Reservoir in 2019. A partial collapse of the dam led to the evacuation of more than 1,500 people.

The main proposed safety reforms are: 

• modernising the approach to hazard classification and safety management requirements
• improving the supply and capacity of reservoir safety engineers
• updating the approach to regulation and enforcement.

Severe weather: drought/heatwave

Climate change means Wales is facing more frequent periods of hotter and drier weather. This has several implications for multiple sectors across Wales:

• droughts can put pressure on drinking water supplies and on the environment, and the agriculture sector.
• heatwave conditions have public health implications and put pressure on health services.

Natural Resources Wales and our water companies (Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water and Hafren Dyfrdwy) produce drought plans. These plans outline how they will manage water supplies during periods of dry weather. They are available online at:

• Natural Resources Wales Drought Plan
• Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water Drought Plan
• Hafren Dyfrdwy Drought Plan

The Wales Drought Liaison Group brings together key partners including the Met Office, NRW, water companies and Public Health Wales. The group monitors weather conditions and plans for potential impacts.

Welsh Government also works with Public Health Wales to produce advice on how to minimise health risks during heatwaves.

At a UK level, the Met Office delivers the National Severe Weather Warning Service. The service provides warnings up to 7 days in advance. This applies to all types of weather hazards including those which can lead to heatwave conditions.

Severe weather: Flooding

Climate change means Wales is facing more extreme rainfall on a regular basis. This means more frequent flood events. There are 3 main types of flooding:

• surface water (and small watercourses)
• river
• coastal

Surface water flooding

Periods of intense rainfall can overwhelm the capacity of our drainage systems. This can lead to large volumes of water flowing through streets and over land. There may be significant property damage and widespread disruption to essential services. These events can be difficult to forecast accurately and can happen with little notice.

Natural Resources Wales (NRW) estimates the following are at risk of surface water flooding in Wales:

• 127,000 residential properties
• 13,600 non-residential properties
• 3,540 key services

The geology of the affected area can also increase the likelihood of sinkholes or landslides. This could impact the local response and wider infrastructure.

River flooding

A sustained period of rainfall could see flood defences overtopped by river levels. Rainfall may also be compounded by snow melt and surface water flooding. Breaches may also occur in riverbanks and hard defences if they are put under pressure. This would lead to the flooding of homes and businesses and associated risk to life.

According to Natural Resources Wales (NRW) the following are at risk from river flooding in Wales:

• over 91,100 residential properties
• 12,600 non-residential properties
• 2,740 key services

Homes and businesses could lose essential services for several weeks. There would also be potential disruption to water supplies.

Coastal flooding

Flooding from the sea can occur when high tides and strong winds blow large waves towards the shore. This can cause significant damage to coastal infrastructure and risk to life. 

According to Natural Resources Wales (NRW), the following are at risk from coastal flooding in Wales:

• over 80,200 residential properties
• 9,400 non-residential properties
• almost 2000 key services

Coastal flooding can also disrupt critical services and have major implications for the local economy. 

To address the risk of flooding, Welsh Government is delivering the Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) Programme. The programme funds flood Risk Management Authorities  to develop flood schemes in their areas.

Welsh Government also funds wider flood risk management work including:

• asset maintenance
• natural flood management measures such as tree planting
• flood mapping and modelling
• flood warning and informing services

At a UK level, the Met Office delivers the National Severe Weather Warning Service. The service provides warnings up to 7 days in advance. This applies to all types of weather hazards including those which can lead to flooding.

Severe weather: Storms

Climate change means Wales is experiencing extreme weather more regularly. This includes more frequent named storm events. Storms bring high winds and, often, increased rainfall.

The Met Office will usually name a storm when it has the potential to cause disruption or damage that requires an amber or red weather warning. This is based on their National Severe Weather Warning Service which provides warnings up to 7 days in advance.

Storm events can have significant impacts on affected communities. This includes flooded properties, damaged infrastructure and transport disruption. More powerful storms can also cause power outages and disruption to essential services like water supply.

Welsh Government has robust networks in place to support the response to any named storm affecting Wales. We work with emergency responders, Natural Resources Wales, local authorities, transport representatives and utilities providers to manage and co-ordinate the response.

Spoil tip landslide

There are more than 2,500 recorded disused coal tips in Wales, a legacy of our industrial past. A tip slip or failure could result in a large volume of debris moving at speed, causing severe destruction in nearby communities.

Since 2020, Welsh Government has implemented a national programme of coal tip safety in Wales. We fund the Mining Remediation Authority, local authorities and Natural Resources Wales (NRW) to deliver a programme of inspections and maintenance. The inspections make sure that the condition and stability of tips are monitored, and maintenance works are carried out where needed. All higher-risk disused coal tips are inspected at least twice a year with additional inspections undertaken by public sector partners and following periods of heavy rainfall.

Since the programme was established, more than £230 million has been committed to securing sites and protecting communities.

Welsh Government has also modernised the legislation around coal tip safety. In July 2025 the Senedd passed the new Disused Mine and Quarry Tips (Wales) Act 2025 which established the Disused Tips Authority for Wales. This new arm’s length body will be responsible for the assessment, registration, monitoring and management of disused tips. The authority is to be established in April 2027. The existing inspections and maintenance regime will continue in the interim.

Terrorism

The threat of terrorism across the UK is constantly evolving.

Welsh Government works closely with Counter Terrorism Policing Wales (CTPW), and other agencies on the UK counter-terrorism strategy (CONTEST) in Wales, designed to reduce the risk from terrorism.

CTPW is an intelligence and investigation unit established through collaboration between the 4 Welsh police forces. It is linked to the National Counter Terrorism Network. The unit draws on a wide range of expertise, all working in partnership to keep Wales safe from terrorism.

Transport disruption

Transport disruption can occur for a range of reasons, including

• severe weather
• infrastructure failure
• industrial action (strikes)
• accidents
• public health incidents
• security events
• major planned events.

Disruption may affect the public's ability to travel, access services and receive goods.

Welsh Government works closely with operators across road, rail, aviation and maritime sectors. We maintain an overview of Wales' transport network and in the event of severe disruption, we support clear messaging to the public.

Wildfires

A wildfire is an uncontrolled vegetation fire which requires a decision or action to suppress it. Wildfires often burn open areas of land such as grass, heather, woodland, crops and scrubland. However, they can also occur in urban areas.

The majority of wildfires are caused by humans, either deliberately or accidentally.

Wildfires can spread rapidly and cause significant damage to critical infrastructure, transport networks, utilities and the environment. Properties may also need evacuating and smoke inhalation could cause adverse health impacts.

Wildfires have long been a serious risk in many parts of Wales. However, climate change means that the wildfire risk is increasing. The wildfire season is getting longer and more wildfires are occurring simultaneously. This is especially common during summer heatwave conditions. It places immense pressure on Fire and Rescue Services and wider emergency responders.

Welsh Government is a member of the multi-agency Wales Wildfire Board. The board works to better understand and manage the risk of wildfire on the environment and communities in Wales.

UK-wide risks

You can find more detailed information on UK-wide risks within the UK government’s National Risk Register.

Where there is a potential risk to life, the UK government’s Emergency Alerts System may be used to warn the public via their mobile phones if there is a life-threatening emergency nearby.

You can find further government advice on the risks we face and how to prepare for them on the UK government website Prepare.