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This paper provides additional scenarios for COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) models for the 2022/23 winter period.

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Science Evidence Advice: Winter modelling paper update - December 2022 , file type: PDF, file size: 1 MB

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This additional analysis is a continuation of the scenarios previously published, including additional outcomes that have been requested by colleagues in the NHS in Wales. A comparison of how the actual data thus far has been tracking against the possible scenarios previously published for COVID-19 is also included, and concludes that we are currently tracking closest to the 'optimistic lower bound' scenario for COVID-19 admissions and deaths and the 'optimistic upper bound' scenario for COVID-19 occupancy.