Short-term output indicators: July to September 2023

These estimates cover July to September 2023 and annual estimates for October 2022 to September 2023.

Estimates for individual quarters can fluctuate and estimates for Wales are typically more volatile than for the UK, therefore a consideration of longer-term trends and comparisons are recommended.

Figure 1: Short-term output indicators, July 2001 to September 2023

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Description of Figure 1: This chart shows the time series for the indices of production, construction, and market services since 2000. The overall trend is the index of market services and index of production have generally increased since 2000, but the index of construction has fluctuated over the same time period. All indices experienced a steep fall in 2020 Q2 due to the coronavirus pandemic, however have since been recovering or are fully recovered.

Source: Short-term output indicators, Welsh Government and Office for National Statistics

Main points

Production and Market Services decreased on both an annual and quarterly basis, whilst Construction showed an increase over both time periods.

This follows a period of change throughout the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with the largest quarterly decreases on record in April to June 2020 (which included part of the initial lockdown period) and the subsequent largest increases on record during July to September 2020 (reflecting the easing of restrictions over the summer months).

Index of Market Services

The longer-term trend shows a 0.5% decrease for Wales and a 1.2% increase for the UK in the year to September 2023, compared with the previous twelve months.

In Wales, five of the nine Market Service industry indices increased on an annual basis.

The Index of Market Services for Wales shows a 0.8% decrease when compared to the previous quarter. UK output decreased by 0.4% over the same period.

Index of Production

The longer-term trend shows a 2.3% decrease for Wales and a 0.9% decrease for the UK in the year to September 2023, compared with the previous twelve months.  

The Index of Production for Wales shows a 0.8% decrease when compared to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 0.1% over the same period.

Index of Construction

The longer-term trend shows a 30.0% increase for Wales and a 4.7% increase for the UK in the year to September 2023, compared with the previous twelve months.  

The Index of Construction for Wales shows a 4.8% increase when comparing the latest quarter to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 0.4% over the same period.

Future of this publication

In May 2023 we shared our plans to cease the publication of this release given the Office for National Statistics’ release of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data for Wales and the English regions. However, in July 2023 ONS announced that they have paused their quarterly regional GDP publication. As a result, we will be continuing with the publication of STOI during this period, to ensure there is no gap in the availability of economic data for Wales. We will continue to inform users of our plans.