Statistics Wales demography newsletter: December 2025

On 20 November, the Welsh Government published 2022-based local authority population projections. The projections provide an indication of the possible size and age structure of the population in the future for local authorities in Wales for the period mid-2022 to mid-2047. 

The release includes the 2022-based projections for local authorities, including variant population projections, and gives a broad overview of the main results. 

During the period mid-2022 to mid-2032:

• the population is projected to increase in all 22 local authorities.
• the local authorities projected to see the largest increases in their population are Cardiff (up 10.5%), Newport (up 10.2%) and the Vale of Glamorgan (up 9.9%).
• this compares with a projected population increase of 5.9% for Wales in the Office for National Statistics’s 2022-based national population projections (ONS).
• the local authorities projected to see the smallest increases in their population are Merthyr Tydfil (up 1.0%), Caerphilly (up 1.2%) and Wrexham (up 1.3%).
• it is projected that all local authorities, other than Newport, will see a decrease in the number of children and young people aged 0 to 15 years old.
• it is projected that the population aged 65 years or older will increase in all local authorities.
• for all local authorities, projected population increases are mainly driven by positive net migration.

We will be publishing separate 2022-based national parks population projections as soon as possible, once we have received all the input data that is required for national parks.

On 20 November, the Welsh Government also published 2022-based local authority household projections. The projections provide an indication of the future number of households and their composition in Wales for the period mid-2022 to mid-2047. 

The release includes the 2022-based projections for local authorities, including variant household projections, and gives a broad overview of the key results. 

During the period mid-2022 to mid-2032:

• the number of households in Wales is projected to increase by around 98,500, or 7.2%, to 1.46 million, driven mostly by an increase in one-person households.
• the number of households is projected to increase in all local authorities.
• the local authorities projected to see the largest percentage increases in the number of households are the Vale of Glamorgan (up 11.7%) and Cardiff (up 11.1%).
• the number of one-adult households with no children is projected to increase the most of all household types.
• one-person households consisting of a person aged 60 years old or older are projected to account for almost three in five of all these households by mid-2032.
• the number of people living in private households, or ‘the household population’, is projected to increase by around 172,400 (5.6%) to 3.25 million.

We will be publishing separate 2022-based national parks household projections as soon as possible, once we have calculated the population projections for national parks.

On the 28 October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) launched a public consultation about Census 2031: Consultation on Content for England and Wales (ONS) which is gathering evidence about which topics should be included in the next census in Wales and England. It is due to close on 4 February 2026.

Census 2031 will be a core component of the future population and migration statistics system. Building on the success of Census 2021, it will be designed to provide high-quality statistics that meet user needs. It will also provide a strong foundation for meeting future population statistics needs across the decade, using the best available sources. 

The consultation's primary aim is to support the selection of topics for Census 2031, and to collect evidence to support the development of the census questions and outputs.​ Additionally, the consultation will inform ONS activities beyond Census 2031, including prioritising the development of admin-based statistics and the ongoing review of the UK-wide Government Statistical Service (GSS) harmonised standards for data collection. The ONS is working closely with each of the devolved governments to support coherence across the UK, while meeting the unique needs of each country.

On 7 November, the ONS published small area population estimates for Wales and England: mid-2023 and mid-2024, revised mid-2022 (ONS). This includes super output areas, health geographies, electoral wards and parliamentary constituencies. 

Data for mid-2022 have been revised. These revisions make the mid-2022 estimates coherent with the revised local authority population estimates for mid-2022, published in July.

StatsWales tables will be updated in due course.

On 7 November, the ONS published its latest update on population and migration statistics (ONS). This outlines their work on improvements to how they estimate population and migration, providing an update on the ONS’s plans and progress.

On 27 November, the ONS published provisional long-term international migration estimates for the UK (ONS). This covers the period year ending June 2012 to year ending June 2025, with some revisions being made to previous years’ data.

Estimates are only available at a UK level. Please refer to the components of change data published by ONS as part of the mid-population estimates release for the latest migration estimates for Wales.

Improved methods for estimating the migration of British nationals and EU+ nationals (ONS) have been implemented in this release of long-term international migration estimates. This will remove any reliance on the International Passenger Survey and improve the information that the ONS provides. 

On 18 November, the ONS published research articles that explain the new methodology, alongside a release explaining its impact on overall net migration estimates from 2021 to 2024 (ONS).  The articles include ‘Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 (ONS)’ and ‘Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of EU+ nationals, progress update: November 2025 (ONS)’.

On 26 September, the ONS published population estimates for mid-2024 for the UK (ONS). This follows on from the publication of mid-2024 estimates for Wales and England published on 30 July, incorporating estimates for Northern Ireland produced by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency and estimates for Scotland produced by National Records of Scotland.

On 21 October, the ONS published estimates of the very old (ONS), including centenarians, for Wales and England from mid-2002 to mid-2024. This analysis provides annual mid-year population estimates for people aged 90 years or older by sex and single year of age to 105 years or older. Datasets were produced for Wales and England separately as well as combined.

For information on Welsh language statistics, please see the Statistics Wales quarterly update.

Telephone: 0300 025 0373

Email: stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099