Wellbeing of Wales, 2024

Foreword

Foreword by the Chief Statistician

This coming year marks 10 years since the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. This Act provides the foundations for the Wellbeing of Wales report, requiring us to annually take stock of the progress we are making towards the seven well-being goals.

This year we saw a small change to the definition of one of those seven goals. The Social Partnership and Public Procurement (Wales) Act replaced the words “decent work” with “fair work” in the definition of the Prosperous Wales goal. This change means Welsh Ministers must review the national indicators and their associated milestones to ensure they still appropriately measure progress towards the newly worded goal. This review will be carried out ahead of the next Wellbeing of Wales report. As part of this review, we will consider the changes we made to the national indicators in 2021 which took on board the recommendations from the Fair Work Commission.

What are the findings this year?

In previous Well-being of Wales reports we have found that inequalities are widening, the cost-of-living crisis has hit people’s incomes, and children and young people are faring worse since the pandemic. With a pause in the National Survey for Wales this year (which provides data for around a quarter of national indicators), there are a number of topics where data isn’t available to provide a more up-to-date assessment. But looking across the indicators which have been updated this year and at data from previous years, there is little evidence yet that these wider trends are changing.

There continues to be evidence that people who experience deprivation are likely to face poorer outcomes. On mental wellbeing, the gap between the most and least deprived areas has widened, and people living in material deprivation are more likely to be lonely. The gap in avoidable mortality between the most and least deprived areas is now at its highest level since 2003 for males and since the series began for females. Children eligible for free school meals still have poorer educational outcomes, with the gap at grades A* to C widening (but narrowing at A* to A). In addition, when looking at community cohesion, there is a clear trend towards feelings of an increased sense of community, satisfaction with the local area and safety after dark as deprivation in the area falls.

A new way of communicating progress

As we approach the 10 year anniversary of the Well-being of Future Generations Act, we have considered how we can continue to provide new insight and improved ways of communicating progress towards the well-being goals. Building on feedback from users, this year we are experimenting with a new way of showing progress, focusing on the 17 national milestones. The milestones are generational targets which describe the pace and scale of change needed in key areas under the seven well-being goals. We have looked at the data for each milestone since 2015, which was when the Well-being of Future Generations Act came into force, and assessed whether the trend has been improving or not since that date.

Some of the 17 milestones have multiple parts to them, so in total we made 21 assessments of progress. 10 of these showed an improvement since 2015, suggesting that Wales is heading in the right direction towards the milestone. However in some cases, even though the trend may be moving in the right direction, we will need to move faster to reach the target by 2050. 5 milestones showed a deterioration, 5 showed little or no change, and for one milestone progress couldn’t be assessed because there was only one year of data. In most cases, the milestones continued to follow a longer term trend that was established before 2015.

You can read more about the approach we have taken in the national milestones chapter. As this is a new way of presenting this information, we are keen to hear your feedback on whether this helps you understand progress towards the well-being goals.

Stephanie Howarth
Chief Statistician

Main points

Following the economic shocks resulting from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, economic conditions have been somewhat calmer over the last year. Even so, the wider UK economy barely grew in 2023 and likely a similar outcome applied in Wales.

Inflation has now returned to more typical rates, at around the Bank of England’s target of 2%. However, inflation has still impacted living standards, with UK disposable household income per person remaining below the pre-pandemic level once inflation is accounted for.

Between 2021 and 2023, 21% of all people in Wales were living in relative income poverty, after housing costs were paid. Children continue to be the population group most likely to be in relative income poverty. Latest data (2020-21 to 2022-23) shows that this was the case for 29% of children in Wales compared to 16% of pensioners.

Annual Population Survey data shows that the employment rate in Wales and in the UK increased in the year ending March 2024. The unemployment rate increased in both countries, while the economic inactivity rate decreased. However, in both countries the number of working age people who were economically inactive due to ill health remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Employment rates in Wales remain lower for women than for men (70.2% and 76.8% respectively in the year ending March 2024). The gap has grown to 6.6 percentage points from 4.8 percentage points the previous year. The employment gap for disabled people in 2024, of 30.9 percentage points, has reduced from 35.4 percentage points in 2016.

A national milestone on participation in education and the labour market was set in 2021 which is that at least 90% of 16 to 24 year olds will be in education, employment, or training by 2050. Provisional estimates show that 85.8% of 16 to 24 year olds were in education, employment or training in 2022, up from 83.7% in 2021. This increase is driven by an increase in the employment rate for 16 to 18 year olds.

In April 2023, the (full-time) gender pay gap was 5.6%, unchanged from the previous year. In the 2023, the disability pay gap widened slightly compared to the previous year, to 12.2%, while the ethnicity pay gap narrowed a little to 13.8%.

The national indicator on soil carbon for 2021-23 shows that the concentration of carbon in our topsoil is generally stable, apart from in arable land and broadleaf woodland where a loss of carbon in topsoil has been observed relative to concentrations in 2013-16.

Nearly 49,000 properties in Wales were at high or medium risk of flooding from rivers and over 79,000 properties at high or medium risk of tidal flooding in 2024.

After an increase during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the amount of household waste generated, but not recycled per person decreased.

Life expectancy fell for the second period in a row, which includes the period of the coronavirus pandemic. The gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived areas was similar to the previous period for both females and males. Healthy life expectancy fell compared to the previous period.

Deaths from all causes increased in the last year compared to the previous year, but were lower than the high number of deaths seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

There has been a slight upward trend in the number of low birth weight babies, with 2022 being the highest on record. This figure remained unchanged in 2023.

Life satisfaction and anxiety levels for adults deteriorated compared to the previous year.

Girls continue to achieve better educational outcomes at GCSE. In summer 2023, 69.7% of entries for girls were awarded at grades A* to C. This was 7.3 percentage points higher than boys. The gap has narrowed slightly in recent years.

People who live in less deprived areas are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion. They are also more likely to feel safe after dark and be satisfied with their local area than people living in more deprived areas

The percentage of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness has fallen, whilst the number of individuals in temporary accommodation has increased, and the estimated number of individuals sleeping rough is over 50% higher compared to 2022 estimates.

Around 7% of adults in Wales were victims of crime (excluding fraud) in 2023-24. Police recorded crime in Wales (excluding fraud) decreased by 4% in 2023-24 compared with the previous year, as did violence against the person.

The total number of police recorded hate crimes in Wales decreased by 4% in 2022-23. However, hate crimes where religion or transgender status was a motivating factor increased by 26% and 22% respectively

Since 2016-17, there has been a relatively large increase in regular participation in sport by adults, despite a plateau between 2017-18 and 2019-20. Sports participation amongst school pupils had increased but has now fallen back to similar levels seen in 2013.

The first post-pandemic data on children’s attendance and participation in the arts shows that both have fallen since 2019. This contrasts with the picture for adults, where the percentage regularly attending and participating in arts, culture and heritage did not change significantly after the pandemic.

New analysis on Welsh language use shows that over half of Welsh speakers aged 16+ speak Welsh with their colleagues at least some of the time, and just under 1 in 5 always speak Welsh with colleagues.

In 2022, it was estimated that greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere directly from within Wales totalled 35.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), a 0.1% decrease since 2021.

A prosperous Wales

The goal for a prosperous Wales

Authors: Dr Thomas Nicholls and Sue Leake

A prosperous Wales: An innovative, productive and low carbon society which recognises the limits of the global environment and therefore uses resources efficiently and proportionately (including acting on climate change); and which develops a skilled and well-educated population in an economy which generates wealth and provides employment opportunities, allowing people to take advantage of the wealth generated through securing fair work.

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

Following the economic shocks resulting from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, economic conditions have been somewhat calmer over the last year. Even so, the wider UK economy barely grew in 2023 and likely a similar outcome applied in Wales.

Inflation has now returned to more typical rates, at around the Bank of England’s target of 2%. However, inflation has still impacted living standards, with UK disposable household income per person remaining below the pre-pandemic level once inflation is accounted for.

Between 2021 and 2023, 21% of all people in Wales were living in relative income poverty (after housing costs were paid).

Underlying Welsh economic performance continues to be weaker than the UK as a whole in terms of economic output (gross value added) and household income (for both gross disposable household income and median household income), but is broadly similar to some other parts of the UK with similar features and characteristics.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS), published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), has for many years been the key data source for assessing the Welsh economy’s short-term economic performance. Mainly due to a reduced response rate, the LFS alone is no longer considered a reliable source of information on recent trends in labour market conditions in Wales. Drawing from the Annual Population Survey (APS) and other sources such as the proportion of the workforce claiming benefits for reasons of unemployment and the number of people on PAYE payrolls, it is clear that the labour market in Wales has continued to evolve in similar fashion to the UK labour market.

APS data shows that the employment rate in Wales and in the UK increased in the year ending March 2024. The unemployment rate increased in both countries. The economic inactivity rate decreased. However, in both countries the number of working age people who were economically inactive due to ill health remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.

A national milestone on participation in education and the labour market was set in 2021 which is that at least 90% of 16 to 24 year olds will be in education, employment, or training by 2050. Provisional estimates show that 85.8% of 16 to 24 year olds were in education, employment or training in 2022, up from 83.7% in 2021. This increase is driven by an increase in the employment rate for 16 to 18 year olds. It is still too soon to assess the full impact of the pandemic on this trend.

52% of employees were covered by collective bargaining arrangements in 2023, where pay and conditions are negotiated between an employer and a trade union. The time series for this indicator is volatile but in 2023 was low compared with the average since 2011.

In April 2023, the (full-time) gender pay gap was 5.6%, unchanged from the previous year. In the year ending December 2023 the disability pay difference was £1.75 an hour (or 12.2%) meaning that disabled employees in Wales earned, on average, £1.75 less per hour than non-disabled employees. This widened by £0.43 (2.5 percentage points) compared to the previous year.

In the year ending December 2023, the ethnicity pay difference was £1.93 an hour (or 13.8%), meaning that Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees in Wales earned, on average, £1.93 less per hour than White employees. The pay difference narrowed by £0.30 (3.0 percentage points) compared to the previous year.

Data on travel and journeys shows us that the volume of traffic in Wales in 2023 remained around 3% below pre-pandemic levels, although the volume of bus traffic was 17% lower than in 2019. The latest available data show that in 2022 the vast majority of Welsh residents travelled to work in a car (79%), and in 2021-22, the majority of young people aged 11 to 16 years old usually walked to school or used public transport (68%).

The qualification profile of the Welsh working age population has been improving over time. In 2023, the proportion of the population with level 3 (equivalent to A levels) and level 4 qualifications (equivalent to degree level) increased, whilst the proportion with no qualifications decreased slightly.

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

Progress towards the goal has been mixed, with improvements in overall labour market performance compared with the period prior to devolution but less progress in addressing poverty, low productivity and pay, and low income levels. Progress has been made on decarbonisation, but more rapid change will be needed in future to meet targets.

The percentage of people living in relative income poverty in 2022-23 was 21% compared with 25% toward the end of the last century. Children are more likely to be in relative income poverty than the population overall, but here too, the incidence of poverty has decreased.

Average household incomes in Wales are considerably closer to the UK average than gross value added (GVA) per head, with differences depending on the measure used and with the gap smallest when assessed for the median household.

The national milestone on employment (based on the APS) is to eradicate the gap between the employment rate in Wales and the UK by 2050, with a focus on fair work and raising labour market participation of under-represented groups. The historical gaps in employment and activity rates between Wales and other parts of the UK have narrowed since the period of devolution, with Wales outperforming some English regions over the medium term. This represents a marked change from the period prior to devolution in the 1980s and 1990s.

Wales has a higher percentage of people earning less than the real living wage than some other parts of the UK. In addition, the evidence on other aspects of the quality of work suggests a mixed picture in Wales.

The qualification profile of the Welsh working age population has been improving over time. One of the national milestones on qualifications is that 75% of working age adults in Wales will be qualified to level 3 or higher by 2050. In 2023, 67.4% of working age adults in Wales were qualified to level 3 or higher. The other national milestone on qualifications is that the percentage of working age adults with no qualifications will be 5% or below in every local authority in Wales by 2050. In 2023, five of Wales’s 22 local authorities have 5% or less of working age adults with no qualifications.

Attainment in secondary schools rose in the years before the pandemic. Public examinations were disrupted in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, whilst 2021/22 was a transitionary year in which pupils sat written exams with some adjustments. Data for the 2022/23 school year, which saw a further transition back to pre-pandemic assessment arrangements (whilst keeping some support in place for learners), shows some continuing improvement compared to pre-pandemic years. However, children from deprived backgrounds still have poorer outcomes.

Management of the interaction between economic growth and the development of an innovative, low carbon economy is complex and poses challenges, but there are positive signs in some sectors.

Since the 2008 recession, investment in business innovation in Welsh firms has fluctuated, with some improvement in businesses being actively innovative recorded prior to the pandemic.

Travel makes a substantial contribution to carbon emissions, but there is no evidence of a shift away from cars as the main method of travel.

As of 2023, GB data indicates that traffic levels and public transport use are recovering following the pandemic but have yet to regain pre-pandemic levels, with bus use particularly impacted.

Economic performance

As across the UK as a whole, growth in the economy and in real incomes has been sluggish since the recession of 2008, reflecting poor productivity growth. Productivity growth has also been weak over this period in most other developed countries, but the UK has fared particularly badly. The prolonged period of slow growth in productivity and real incomes is unprecedented in modern times.

Over the longer run, since 1998, and taking economic indicators in the round, Wales has broadly kept pace with the UK. While its economic performance continues to be weak compared with many other parts of the UK, productivity data over the last decade gives some grounds for optimism. However, the gap with the UK as a whole remains large, and the UK itself does not perform strongly when productivity levels are compared internationally.

Gross value added (GVA) represents the value of all goods and services produced in an area. It is both the source of the real incomes people earn and the base on which taxes can be levied to fund public services.

While GVA per head of population in Wales has grown broadly in line with the UK since 1998, it remains lower than almost all other countries and regions of the UK.

Latest data (for 2022) shows that GVA per head in Wales was 72.1% of the UK average, the second lowest of the 12 UK countries and English regions, ahead of the North East.

Welsh performance on GVA per head is mainly a reflection of relatively low productivity levels. Productivity, measured as GVA per hour worked, is lower in Wales than in other UK countries and regions in England. In 2022 it was 82.7% of the UK figure. Since 2004, productivity in Wales has been in a range of 81.7% to 85.3% of the UK average.

Figure 1.1: Welsh gross value added per hour worked, relative to the UK (UK = 100), 1998 to 2022

Description of Figure 1.1: A line chart showing that GVA (gross value added) per hour worked in Wales relative to the UK (current price index UK = 100) has been relatively stable since 1998, with Welsh productivity remaining below the UK average.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of Regional labour productivity, UK, 1998 to 2022, ONS

Innovation in businesses

The latest information from the UK innovation survey for the period 2020 to 2022 indicates that 31% of Welsh businesses are innovation-active (based on an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) definition). This means that they are undertaking activities such as introducing new or significantly improved products, services, processes; or business structures or practices; or investing in research and development or training.

Wales had the lowest proportion of innovative firms of the UK countries and English regions over the period. This uses the geographic location based on businesses’ head office location. It is unclear how much of an effect this may have on measuring innovation in Wales. The most recent survey period (2020-22) includes the COVID-19 pandemic, which is likely to have had an impact on business innovation.

Since the 2008 recession, investment in business innovation has fluctuated in Wales. The latest period (2020 to 2022) shows a decrease in Wales compared to previous periods, although there were also decreases in the percentages of businesses who were innovation active in all UK countries.

Figure 1.2: Innovation-active businesses in Wales and the UK, 2008-10 to 2020-22

Description of Figure 1.2: A line chart showing that the proportion of innovation-active businesses in Wales has closely followed the UK trend, with both showing a decrease for the most recent survey period (2020-22).

Source: UK Innovation Survey, Department for Business and Trade

Household income

Household income is a better indicator of people’s prosperity and material wellbeing than GVA. Average household incomes in Wales are considerably closer to the UK average than GVA per head, but there are differences depending on the measure used, with the gap narrowest when median incomes are considered.

The national indicator on income uses the measure gross disposable household income (GDHI). The national milestone on household income is to improve GDHI per head by 2035. On this measure Wales, according to the most recent data (2022), is at 82% of the UK figure, having fallen from 88% at its peak in 2003. This relative fall has partly been driven by a steep increase in household incomes in London, which has helped to drive up the UK average.

Whilst Wales has the second lowest GDHI per head of the UK countries and regions, it is broadly comparable to areas of the UK with similar characteristics.

Figure 1.3: Gross disposable household income per head, Wales and UK, 1999 to 2022

Description of Figure 1.3: A line chart showing that gross disposable household income (GDHI) per head has increased overall in Wales and the UK since 1999, with the value for Wales remaining below the UK across the timeseries.

Source: Regional Gross Disposable Household Income, ONS

Labour market

The official and most timely source of data describing labour market conditions in Wales for many years has been the LFS. While always volatile owing to a relatively small sample size, that volatility has, over the last few years, become markedly more pronounced owing largely to reduced response rates. As a result, the data at UK country and regional level are no longer classified as accredited official statistics, with relatively large confidence intervals for the Wales estimates which makes the data less reliable and more uncertain.

Current LFS data quality issues aside, it is always sensible to consider other labour market data which are published alongside LFS data to gauge the latest labour market position in Wales. Other data sources include HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data capturing the actual number of Pay As You Earn (PAYE) employees and Department for Work and Pensions data counting the number of people claiming benefits primarily for reasons of unemployment. These data show that momentum in the labour market has slowed during 2024. The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England latest forecasts expect labour market outcomes in the UK to deteriorate over the near term.

The APS allows for estimates of labour market outcomes at a local authority level and for sub-groups of the population, and is the source for the national indicators and related national milestones. As most labour market data is survey-based and volatile, short term changes should not be over-interpreted. The national milestone on employment (based on the APS) is to eradicate the gap between the employment rate in Wales and the UK by 2050, with a focus on fair work and raising labour market participation of under-represented groups. According to the APS, the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 in Wales was 73.5% in the year ending March 2024 whilst the UK rate was 75.4%. Since the year ending March 2005, the employment rate has increased by 4.1 percentage points in Wales and by 2.9 percentage points in the UK with the gap in the employment rate narrowing from 3.1 percentage points to 1.9 percentage points.

COVID-19 had adverse labour market effects which have disproportionately affected groups that were already disadvantaged. This includes people in low paid jobs, in less secure employment, young people, people reaching the end of their working lives, and people in various groups that were already experiencing labour market inequalities. However, many of the adverse effects have subsequently reduced or reversed (further analysis of the impact on inequalities is included in the More Equal Wales chapter).

A worrying feature of the labour market in recent years is the big increase in economic inactivity among people of working age owing to ill health. The APS reports that 26,100 more people of working age were economically inactive in Wales because of long term sickness in the year to March 2024 compared with the year to March 2020. This is an increase of approximately 20%. The APS reports there were 358,200 more people inactive due to ill-health across the UK, an increase of 17%.

Figure 1.4: Employment rate for people aged 16 to 64, year ending March 2005 to March 2024

Description of Figure 1.4: A line chart showing the employment rate for those aged 16 to 64 has generally increased since the year ending March 2011 in both Wales and the UK. Over the last four years (since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic) the rate has been more volatile for Wales. The UK rate has remained higher than the Wales rate since the year ending March 2005.

Source: APS, ONS

Note: Chart axis does not start at zero.

Figure 1.5: Economic inactivity rate (excluding students) for people aged 16 to 64, year ending March 2005 to March 2024

Description of Figure 1.5: A line chart showing the economic inactivity rate (excluding students) has steadily decreased since the year ending March 2005 in both Wales and the UK, however over the last four years (since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic) the rate has increased for both. The Welsh rate has always been higher than the UK rate, with the size of the gap fluctuating over time.

Source: APS, ONS

Note: Chart axis does not start at zero.

Participation in education and the labour market

A national milestone on participation in education and the labour market was set in 2021 which is that at least 90% of 16 to 24 year olds will be in education, employment or training by 2050.

Provisional estimates for 2022 show that 85.8% of 16 to 24 year olds were in education, employment or training, up from 83.7% in 2021. The increase was largely driven by an increase in the employment for 16 to 18 year olds.

Using the main measure of young people in education, employment or training, there was an increase in both the 16 to 18 and 19 to 24 age groups between 2021 and 2022, with the overall increase for those aged 16 to 18 (0.9 percentage points) being smaller than the overall increase for those aged 19 to 24 (2.7 percentage points). For 16 to 18 year olds, this followed a period where the proportion remained stable at around 89-90% between 2012 and 2018.

More recent figures on young people in education, employment or training are available from a secondary, less robust source. These suggest an increase in participation in 2023, more so for the 16 to 18 age group.

Figure 1.6: Percentage of young people in Wales in education, employment or training, 2004 to 2022

Description of Figure 1.6: A line chart showing that the percentage of young people in Wales aged 16 to 18 years in education, employment or training has remained relatively steady since 2004, whilst the percentage of those aged 19 to 24 years fell below 80% between 2009 and 2014 but has since recovered to 85.4% in 2022.

Source: Participation of young people in education and the labour market, Welsh Government

Note: Chart axis does not start at zero.

(p): Figures for 2022 are provisional.

Fair work and earnings

A national indicator on the proportion of employees whose pay is set by collective bargaining was introduced in December 2021, based on data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). Some 52% of employee jobs were covered by collective bargaining arrangements in 2023, where pay and conditions are negotiated between an employer and a trade union. This has remained steady since 2022 but is lower than in many previous years. However it is considerably higher than the majority of the other UK countries and England regions and reflects the relatively higher share of employees in Wales who work in the public sector and in manufacturing.

The national indicator on fair work and earnings considers the percentage of people in employment, who are on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts, and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn at least the real living wage. The real living wage is calculated by the Living Wage Foundation who determine the methodology. It aims to reflect the cost of living.

In 2023, 64% of those people on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts, and not seeking permanent employment) earned at least the real living wage, reduced from 68% in 2022 and lower than at any time in the last decade. This is based on the real living wage for 2023-24 as published in October 2023.

Figure 1.7: Percentage of people in employment, who are on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts, and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn at least the real living wage, 2012 to 2023

Description of Figure 1.7: A line chart showing that the number of people in employment earning at least the real living wage in Wales has fallen to 64% in 2023, after fluctuating between 65% and 70% between 2012 and 2022.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of the APS

Data from the National Survey for Wales suggests that the percentage of people satisfied with their job remains broadly unchanged, standing at 83% in 2022-23. Job satisfaction tends to increase with age.

A national milestone has been set to eliminate the pay gap for gender, disability and ethnicity by 2050. Over the long-term, the gender pay gap (on a median hourly full-time basis and excluding overtime) has narrowed. In April 2023, the (full-time) gender pay gap was 5.6%, unchanged from the previous year. The gap slightly widened in the UK to 7.7%.

The gender pay gap for all employees remains considerably higher at 11.8%. This is because women fill more part-time jobs, which in comparison with full-time jobs have lower hourly median pay.

These gaps do not take into account differences in education levels and experience, which vary across genders and affect earning levels.

Figure 1.8: Percentage difference in median hourly full-time earnings between men and women, 1999 to 2023 [Note 1]

Description of Figure 1.8: A line chart showing that the difference in median hourly full-time earnings between men and women has decreased over the last 20 years for both Wales and the UK. Wales has had a narrower gender pay gap than the UK since 2013.

Source: Welsh Government Analysis of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS

[Note 1] A pay difference greater than zero means men’s earnings are higher than women’s.

In the year ending December 2023, the disability pay difference in Wales was £1.75 an hour (or 12.2%). This means that disabled employees in Wales earned, on average £1.75 less per hour than non-disabled employees. The pay difference has widened by £0.43 (2.5 percentage points) compared to the previous year. Since 2019, the value of the disability pay difference has seen a very slight decrease (of £0.01), however due to higher hourly wages for both disabled and non-disabled employees as a percentage the pay difference decreased by 2.9 percentage points.

In the year ending December 2023, the ethnicity pay difference in Wales was £1.93 an hour (or 13.8%). This means that Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees in Wales earned, on average £1.93 less per hour than White employees. The pay difference has narrowed by £0.30 (3.0 percentage points) compared to the previous year, which has been caused by an increase of £1.02 in average hourly earnings for Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees compared to an increase of £0.72 for White employees.

Disability and ethnicity pay differences are based on median hourly earnings for all employees.

It is worth noting that due to the high volatility in the data for the ethnicity pay difference in Wales, short-term changes should be considered alongside longer-term trends where possible. Since 2019, the ethnicity pay difference has seen an overall increase where average hourly earnings for White employees have increased by 23.5% whereas average hourly earnings for Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees have increased by 8.0%.

Poverty and deprivation

Relative income poverty

People living in relative income poverty are those who live in a household where the total household income from all sources is less than 60% of the average UK household income (as given by the median).

For regions and countries of the UK, the latest data point published is for the period between 2020-21 and 2022-23. Estimates do not include 2020-21 survey data in calculations, as data for that year is judged to be of too low quality, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on survey fieldwork.

Between 2020-21 and 2022-23, 21% of all people in Wales were living in relative income poverty (after housing costs were paid).

The percentage of people living in relative income poverty has been relatively stable in Wales for over 18 years, with children more likely to be in relative income poverty than the population overall. Although rates of people living in relative income poverty in Wales increased for children and decreased for pensioners in the most recent period, none of the changes were statistically significant.

Figure 1.9: Percentage of each age group in Wales living in relative income poverty (after housing costs), three-financial-year averages [Note 1]

Description of Figure 1.9: A line chart showing people in Wales living in relative income poverty (after housing costs were paid) from 1997 onwards. The percentage of people living in relative income poverty has been relatively stable in Wales for over 18 years, with children more likely to be in relative income poverty than the population overall.

Source: Welsh Government Analysis of the DWP's Households below average income dataset, based on the Family Resource Survey

[Note 1] Estimates for periods which span 2020-21 do not include the data collected during 2020-21 in calculations. For the latest three periods shown, estimates formerly calculated as 3 year rolling averages are based on 2 year rolling averages that omit the 2020-21 survey data. 2020-21 estimates are unreliable as they are based on data collected during the first year of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, when lockdown rules severely disrupted the data collection.

A person is considered to be in persistent poverty if they are in relative income poverty in at least 3 out of 4 consecutive years. Data from the Understanding Society survey shows that an individual in Wales had a 12% likelihood of being in persistent poverty between 2018 and 2022 (after housing costs were paid). A child in Wales had a higher likelihood of being in persistent poverty at 18%.

Material deprivation

Material deprivation is a measure of living standards, and a person is defined to be living in material deprivation if they are not able to access a certain number of goods and services.

The continuation of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions into 2021-22 affected the measurement of material deprivation. The restrictions that remained in place affected people’s access to some social opportunities or services, regardless of deprivation or financial constraint. In addition, changes in the way National Survey for Wales data is collected since the pandemic affects comparability with earlier data.

In the years prior to the pandemic, the percentage of working-age adults in material deprivation reduced from 19% in 2017-18 to 16% in 2019-20. There was also a decrease in material deprivation among pensioners (from 7% to 4% in the period).

More recently, between 2021-22 and 2022-23 levels of material deprivation rose for working-age adults (to 19%) and, to a lesser extent, for pensioners (to 5%).

In 2022-23, 25% of people who had children in their household were in material deprivation, compared with 11% of people in child-free households. However, a lower proportion of parents had children who were experiencing material deprivation themselves (9%).  This was an increase from when last measured in 2019-20, when 6% of parents had children who were experiencing material deprivation.

Figure 1.10: Percentage of people in material deprivation (in Wales, financial years 2016-17 to 2022-23 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Description of Figure 1.10: A line graph showing that the proportion of working-age adults and pensioners who were materially deprived both fell prior to the pandemic whilst the trend for children was relatively stable. The proportion for each of these groups has risen again in 2022-23.

Source: National Survey for Wales

[Note 1] Material deprivation data was not collected for the 2020-21 survey year.

[Note 2] For 2021-22 and 2022-23, material deprivation statistics are not strictly comparable with the pre-pandemic period. The National Survey transitioned from a face-to-face to telephone based survey, which may have influenced respondents answering of the material deprivation questions

In the previous Well-being of Wales reports we have reported on data from a different source, the Family Resources Survey, which estimates the percentage of working age adults and children in low-income households which were materially deprived.

Income spent on housing costs

The national indicator on the percentage of households spending 30% or more of income on housing costs is based on data from the DWP Family Resources Survey. Data collection for the Family Resources Survey was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020-21 so survey data for that year is not included in the calculations for the three most recent periods as it is judged to be of low quality.

For the latest period for which sufficient data is available (financial years 2021-22 to 2022-23), 15% of households spent 30% or more of their income on housing costs, but this varies by housing tenure. This percentage had been fairly consistent at around 19% since the period 2011-12 to 2013-14. It is unclear whether this apparent fall represents a statistically significant change. However, there are indications that during the most recent period the income element of the indicator includes increases in state support (for example fuel support payments, Cost of Living support scheme payments). In addition, many households in the period on fixed rate mortgages may not yet have been impacted by increases seen in the mortgage interest rates following increases in the Bank of England base rate from autumn 2022.

Note that this indicator does not include household energy costs which rose throughout 2022-23 and will have had a wider impact on households.

In the period to 2021-22 to 2022-23, only 3% of households who own their own home outright and 9% of those who own a home with a mortgage spent 30% or more of their income on housing cost. Percentages are higher for the other two tenures: 35% for private rented households, 36% of those in social rented housing.

Qualifications

The qualification profile of the Welsh working age population has been improving over time, though there is a break in the series between 2021 and 2022 due to changes to the questions on qualifications in the APS, which now reflect the current qualifications framework.

Skills and qualifications are the biggest single influence on people’s chance of being in employment and on their incomes.

In 2023, 45.0% of working age adults (aged 18 to 64 years) were qualified to at least higher education level (level 4), up from 43.3% in 2022.The proportion of the working age population with at least higher education qualifications has increased considerably in the last 15 years; rising by nearly 14 percentage points in the period from 2008 to 2021.

One of the national milestones on qualifications is that 75% of working age adults in Wales will be qualified to level 3 or higher by 2050. In 2023, 67.4% of working age adults in Wales were qualified to level 3 or higher.

Between 2008 and 2021, there were large falls in the share of working age adults with no qualifications. This proportion stood at 7.9% in 2023. The proportion of working age adults qualified to at least level 2 (equivalent to 5+ GCSEs at grade A* to C) stood at 87.4% in 2023.

Older adults are more likely to have no qualifications than younger adults.

There are higher proportions of males than females with no qualifications in age groups up to and including 35 to 49 year olds. Females are more likely to hold qualifications at or above level 4.

Figure 1.11: Highest level of qualification held by adults of working age, 2008 to 2023 [Note 1]

Description of Figure 1.11: Qualification levels in Wales have steadily increased since 2008, though there is a break in the series between 2021 and 2022 due to comparability issues.

Source: Welsh Government Analysis of APS, ONS

[Note 1] Estimates for 2022 onwards cannot be compared to previous years following changes to the questions on qualifications in the APS.

The other national milestone on qualifications is that the percentage of working age adults with no qualifications will be 5% or below in every local authority in Wales by 2050. In 2023, five of Wales’s 22 local authorities have 5% or less of working age adults with no qualifications – the Vale of Glamorgan (2.5%), Monmouthshire (3.0%), Isle of Anglesey (3.2%), Gwynedd (3.3%) and Powys (3.4%). The proportion of working age adults with no qualifications was highest in Blaenau Gwent (16.6%) and Merthyr Tydfil (14.1%).

Figure 1.12: Proportion of working age population with no qualification by local authority, 2023

Description of Figure 1.12: A bar chart showing the proportion of the working age population with no qualifications in each local authority in 2023. The proportion is less than 5% in the Vale of Glamorgan, Monmouthshire, Isle of Anglesey, Gwynedd and Powys, but is over 15% in Blaenau Gwent.

Source: Welsh Government Analysis of APS, ONS

Attainment in schools

Attainment in schools rose in the years prior to the pandemic, however public examinations (such as GCSE and A Levels) were disrupted, particularly in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In those years all grades that would have been awarded following an examination were replaced with the centre assessed or determined grades. 2021/22 was a transitionary year in which pupils sat written exams with some adjustments. Further details on these arrangements can be found in our annual Examination results publication.

Data for the 2022/23 school year, which saw a further transition back to pre-pandemic assessment arrangements (whilst keeping some support in place for learners) shows some continuing improvement compared to pre-pandemic years. However, children from deprived backgrounds still have poorer outcomes.

The ‘capped 9 ‘points score is the national indicator on secondary school performance which focuses on year 11 pupils’ best nine results at GCSE, including some subject specific requirements.

In 2022/23 the average capped 9 indicator (interim measures version) was 358.1 points, a small increase from 354.4 points in 2018/19. In 2022/23 pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM) scored 296.7 points and pupils not eligible for FSM scored 383.8 points on average in the “capped 9” indicator (interim measures version). This means that pupils not eligible score higher than pupils by 87.1 points. This is an increase in the gap from 77.3 points in 2018/19, the last time the capped 9 indicator (interim measures version) was reported on.

From 2018/19, when written exams were last sat, to 2022/23 the percentage of entries awarded A* to A and A* to C grades at GCSE have increased. In this period the percentage of A* to A grades increased from 19.5% to 22.2%. However, this is a decrease of 3.7 percentage points compared to the results obtained in 2021/22, when qualifications returned to being awarded based on written examinations for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. A similar pattern was seen at the A* to C grade range.

There remains a gap in educational outcomes of children in school eligible for free school meals and those who are not. The gap in entries achieving A* to A grades at GCSE has widened in the last eight years, whilst the gap in entries achieving A* to C grades has been more stable. Data up to 2019 from national curriculum teacher assessments indicated that the gap in educational outcomes widened as pupils got older. With the introduction of the new Curriculum for Wales this data is no longer collected.

In 2022/23, the gap between pupils not eligible for free school meals (FSM) and pupils eligible for FSM awarded GCSE grades A* to A narrowed to 16.7 percentage points, from 19.2 percentage points in 2021/22. The gap had previously been relatively stable at around 14.7 percentage points between 2015/16 and 2018/19 but widened during the years impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, before starting to narrow again.

In 2022/23 the gap between pupils not eligible for FSM and pupils eligible for FSM awarded grades A* to C widened to 29.8 percentage points, returning to a gap similar in size to the years leading up to the pandemic after a fall to 24.7 percentage points in 2019/20.

**Figure 1.13: Gap between percentages of pupils eligible for FSM and pupils not eligible for FSM achieving A-A, A-C and A*-G at GSCE, 2015/16 to 2022/23 [Note 1]**

Description of Figure 1.13: A line chart showing the gap between percentages of students eligible for free school meals and students not eligible for free school meals achieving A*-A, A*-C, and A*-G at GCSE from 2015/16 to 2022/23. Between 2020/21 and 2022/23, the gap increased for the A*-C and A*G grade ranges but decreased for A*-A.

Source: Examination Results, Welsh Government

[Note 1] Between dashed lines indicate when qualifications were awarded using centre assessed or determined grades.

Greenhouse gas emissions from industry and the energy supply sectors

Managing the interaction between economic growth and an innovative, low carbon economy is complex and poses challenges, but greenhouse gas emissions from industry and a number of other key business sectors remain much lower than in the 1990s.

The Prosperous Wales chapter previously reported on greenhouse gas emissions from business. Because of changes to sector definitions the chapter now reports on emissions from industry and the energy supply sector (electricity supply and fuel supply).

Overall, greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by 36% since the base year (1990). Emissions from industry and the electricity and fuel supply sectors accounted for over half of Welsh territorial emissions (55%) in 2022. Emissions from these sectors have decreased by 40% since 1990 with the largest reduction in the fuel supply sector (48% reduction).

Figure 1.14: Greenhouse gas emissions from industry and the energy supply sectors, 1990 to 2022 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Description of Figure 1.14: A line chart showing the volume of territorial greenhouse gas emissions (megatonnes) from sectors related to business between 1990 and 2022. Emissions from the industry and electricity supply sectors have been volatile although have both decreased since 1990. Emissions from the fuel supply sector have generally decreased smoothly between 1990 and 2022.

Source: Welsh Government Analysis of National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

[Note 1] Annual estimates available from 1998. Prior to that estimates available for 1990 and 1995.

[Note 2] The sector definition of the greenhouse gas inventory varies from both the Low Carbon Delivery Plan (Carbon Budget period 1, 2016-2020) and the Net Zero Wales Plan (Carbon Budget Period 2, 2021-2025).

Mode of travel

Some forms of travel, including road traffic, make a substantial contribution to carbon emissions. There is no evidence of a shift away from cars as the main method of travel in Wales.

In 2023 road traffic volume in Wales increased by 2% compared to 2022, to 29.8 billion vehicle kilometers (bvk), but remained around 3% below pre-pandemic levels (30.7 billion vehicle kilometers (bvk) in 2019).

Compared to 2021-22, local bus journeys increased by 16% in 2022-23, however, this represents a 33% decrease in passenger journeys compared to 2019-20 (pre-pandemic levels). The journeys in 2022-23 covered a total of 84.0 million vehicle kilometres, similar to the previous year.

As of 2023, data from Great Britain indicates that traffic levels and public transport usage are recovering following the pandemic. However, both overall traffic volume and bus traffic volume remain below pre-pandemic levels, with traffic volume 3% lower than 2019 levels and the volume of bus traffic 17% lower than 2019 levels.

A national indicator on the percentage of journeys by walking, cycling or public transport was added to the national indicator set in December 2021. This data will be sourced from a National Travel Survey for Wales which is currently under development. In the short-term, data from the Labour Force Survey on usual mode of travel to work and data from the National Survey for Wales on mode of travel to school can be considered.

As in most other parts of the UK outside London, private road transport remains the dominant mode of travel and accounts for the overwhelming majority of commuting journeys in Wales. In 2022, 79% of commuters in Wales used a car as their usual method of travel to work, slightly lower than prior to the pandemic. There has been little change to the proportions of Welsh residents that usually use each mode of travel to get to work over the last decade.

Figure 1.15: Usual mode of travel to work by Welsh residents, 2022 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Description of Figure 1.15: A pie chart showing that the majority (79%) of Welsh residents travelled to work by car in 2022.11% of residents walked, with 5% using a bus or coach, and 2% using rail services.

Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain: Usual method of travel to work by region of residence

[Note 1] Respondents were asked what their usual method of travel was

[Note 2] Categories that have been supressed due to low quality have been included in the “Other” category.

The two most common modes of travel to secondary school by pupils in 2021-22 were buses and walking. 36% of secondary school pupils usually travel to school by bus (school or public), 32% walk to school and 30% travel to school by car. The most common modes of travel to primary school by pupils were cars and walking. In 2021-22, 34% of secondary school pupils and 48% of primary school pupils usually actively travelled to school (e.g. travelling to school by walking or cycling).

There has been a considerable increase in the number of newly registered ultra-low emission vehicles in Wales in recent years. In 2023, there were over 9,000 newly registered ultra-low emission vehicles, a 12% increase compared to the previous year.

At the end of 2023, there were nearly 34,000 licensed ultra-low emission vehicles registered in Wales, which represents 1.7% of all licensed vehicles. Over time, reducing reliance on petrol and diesel vehicles and increasing the use of ultra-low emission vehicles could help lower emissions.

Data sources

The following data sources were used in this narrative.

Economic performance

Regional gross value added (balanced) per head and income components (ONS)

Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK: July 2022 (ONS)

UK Innovation Survey statistics (Department for Business and Trade)

United Kingdom innovation survey 2023: report (Department for Business and Trade)

A resilient Wales

The goal for a resilient Wales

Author: Luned Jones

A resilient Wales: a nation which maintains and enhances a bio-diverse natural environment with healthy functioning ecosystems that support social, economic and ecological resilience and the capacity to adapt to change (for example, climate change).

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

Many of the national indicators used to measure progress towards this goal are long-term indicators that measure gradual change. These indicators are therefore updated periodically rather than annually. From those national indicators updated within the last year:

the national indicator on soil carbon for 2021-23, shows that the concentration of carbon in our topsoil is generally stable, apart from in arable land and broadleaf woodland where a loss of carbon in topsoil has been observed relative to concentrations in 2013-16
nearly 49,000 properties in Wales were at high or medium risk of flooding from rivers and over 79,000 properties at high or medium risk of tidal flooding in 2024; of these, nearly 25,000 benefit from river flood defences, nearly 42,000 from tidal flood defences and nearly 35,000 benefit from river and sea flood defences
average concentrations to which people are exposed, of particulate matter, remained broadly similar between 2021 and 2022 and average concentrations for nitrogen dioxide increased slightly between 2021 and 2022, but remained lower than prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic; however, it should be noted that annual variations can be due to a number of factors including the weather
after an increase during the COVID-19 pandemic, the amount of household waste generated, but not recycled per person decreased
the installation rate for electrical capacity in 2022 was the second lowest in the last decade, but the installation rate for heat capacity was at its highest rate since 2018

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

Data for some of the national indicators suggest that progress is being made towards the resilient Wales goal, but some of this progress has slowed recently, and further improvements are needed in order to reach the goal and national milestones.

Our global footprint is the total environmental burden that society places on the planet. The national milestone for the global footprint indicator is that Wales will only use its fair share of the world’s resources by 2050. Estimates produced by JNCC and the Global Footprint Network in 2023 suggest that the global footprint per person reduced by nearly a third between 2004 and 2018. However, this remains over twice the estimated biocapacity of Wales. If the entire world population lived like the citizens of Wales, humanity would require 2.08 Earths. Further analysis of the global footprint is included in the A Globally Responsible Wales chapter.

The latest comprehensive assessment of Wales’s management of natural resources (SoNaRR 2020) shows that overall, biological diversity is declining. The national indicator on the status of biological diversity in Wales, published in 2021, showed that the distribution of species has decreased over the long term, mirroring the global picture of declining biological diversity. The 2023 State of Nature Report states that one in six of our species are at risk of extinction from Wales, including plants and animals.

The quality of our water whether in seas, rivers, streams or the ground has generally improved in recent decades. But, whilst some progress has been made in protecting and enhancing our waters, there is still a long way to go.

Air quality has improved greatly since the 1970s, but remains a risk to human health and nature.

Wales has seen decreases in waste generation and considerable improvements in the recycling rate, but we continue to use up resources faster than they can be replenished.

Installed electrical capacity from renewable energy continues to increase but at a considerably slower pace than in recent years. The installation rate for heat capacity has increased.

SoNaRR 2020 provides a comprehensive assessment of progress against the four aims of the sustainable management of natural resources.

Biodiversity and habitats

The national milestone on biodiversity is to reverse the decline in biodiversity with an improvement in the status of species and ecosystems by 2030 and their clear recovery by 2050.

An experimental indicator on the status of biological diversity in Wales published in 2021 showed that the distribution of species in Wales has declined over the long term but has been stable more recently. Although there have been improvements in the status of populations of some species in Wales, SoNaRR 2020 shows that, overall, biodiversity is declining. Further analysis on this topic is available in the Wellbeing of Wales report 2021.

In addition to the national indicator on biodiversity, there are schemes in place which monitor specific species. The UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme is a long-term monitoring scheme. Data for 2022 shows that trends for UK butterfly species vary, with about a third of butterfly species assessed in the UK showing a significant long-term decline in abundance (33%), and the same showing a significant long-term increase. Short-term (10 year) trends show 5 species (9%) showing a statistically significant increase and 4 species (7%) showing a significant decline. In Wales, out of the species with sufficient data to be assessed, there are both long- and short-term declines in several species but it is encouraging that nine species are showing a long-term increase.

Key drivers responsible for long-term declines in abundance include changes in the extent, condition and fragmentation of habitats caused by the intensification of farming, changes in forestry practices, urban development, pollution and climate change. Some drivers, such as climate change, are likely to have mixed, species-dependent impacts.

The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is a partnership jointly funded by the BTO, RSPB and JNCC, launched in 1994, and is a citizen science monitoring scheme. In the most recent 2023 annual report, population trends for 119 bird species in the UK have been produced. The results show that, across the UK, 35 species have increased in the long term (since the start of BBS), including Red Kite and Nuthatch, whilst 42 species have declined, such as Swift, Swallow and Curlew. In Wales numbers are up for Goldfinch, Great Spotted Woodpecker and Red Kite. Meanwhile, numbers of Swift, Greenfinch, Curlews and Yellowhammer are all falling.

Most habitat types have seen a reduction in diversity over the last 100 years, with the rate of decline increasing from the 1970s onwards. In the 2019 Wellbeing of Wales report we reported that 31% of our land was considered semi-natural. This national indicator is used to assess the proportion of our land that has semi-natural, less modified habitats as these are most likely to form healthy and resilient ecosystems.

Additional information from NRW’s condition assessments for marine Special Areas of Conservation and Special Protection Areas in Wales and the Terrestrial and Freshwater Protected sites baseline assessment were included in the Wellbeing of Wales report 2022.

Well managed soil will safeguard food production, support habitats, help manage flood risk and reduce water treatment costs. The national indicator on soil carbon for 2021-23, shows that the concentration of carbon in our topsoil is generally stable, apart from in arable land and broadleaf woodland where a loss of carbon in topsoil has been observed relative to concentrations in 2013-16.

Water and flood risk

The quality of our water whether in seas, rivers, streams or the ground is generally improving.

Water is one of Wales’s natural resources which we rely on constantly including for drinking water, the economy, industry, sewage treatment and agriculture. In 2023-24 Welsh Water and Hafren Dyfrdwy provided around 900 megalitres per day (Ml/d) of potable water to meet demand, with higher demand experienced during peak periods such as during hot dry weather or tourism hot spots. Private water supplies (not on mains) are estimated as 13.8 Ml/d.

There is no new data this year for the national indicator on status of surface and ground water bodies. Latest data, relating to 2021, indicates that 40% of 933 surface and ground water bodies were at good or better status. This represents a 3 percentage point increase from that reported in 2015 and an 8 percentage point improvement since 2009. A further update is expected in the autumn of 2024.

Water quality compliance assessments for the nine Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) rivers in Wales have reviewed monitoring data against new targets for phosphorus and wider indicators of pollution. In relation to phosphorus, 107 water bodies were assessed, 39% passed the new targets and 61% failed. Phosphorus failures were found in five of the SAC rivers, and wider water quality failures were identified in seven of the SAC rivers.

Good quality bathing waters are very important for coastal communities, visitors and the economy in Wales. Bathing water quality was monitored at 109 designated sites around Wales’s coast in 2023. 107 bathing waters met the standards set by the Bathing Water Regulations. 80 were classified as excellent, 20 achieved good and 7 were classified as the minimum, sufficient, standard. 2 bathing waters failed to achieve the standard and were assessed as poor. Typically, the classifications are based on 4-years of bathing water quality data.

Figure 2.1: Bathing water quality, percentage of designated sites, 2023

Description of Figure 2.1: A pie chart showing bathing water quality for designated sites in Wales in 2023. 73% were classed as excellent, 18% as good, 6% as sufficient and 2% as poor.

Source: NRW Bathing Water Quality Report 2023

The latest flood risk assessment shows that some homes in Wales are at risk of flooding from seas, rivers and surface water, with some properties at risk from more than one type of flooding. In 2024, 1 in 7 (273,000) residential and non-residential properties are at either low, medium or high risk of flooding. In terms of the national indicator on flooding, nearly 49,000 properties in Wales were at high or medium risk of flooding from rivers and over 79,000 properties at high or medium risk of tidal flooding. Of these, nearly 25,000 benefit from river flood defences, nearly 42,000 from tidal flood defences and nearly 35,000 benefit from river and sea flood defences. It’s currently not possible to consider trends over time due to changes in methodology.

Air quality

Air quality has improved greatly since the 1970s, but remains a risk to human health.

The national indicator on nitrogen dioxide (NO2) shows that overall, the average concentration levels to which people are exposed have been declining over the past decade. After a period of relative stability between 2017 and 2019 (at around 9 µg/m3), the average concentration decreased to 7 µg/m3 in 2020 and 2021 and increased slightly to 8 µg/m3 in 2022. Average concentrations to which people are exposed of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) remained broadly stable between 2021 and 2022. Whilst the data used to underpin the indicators is based on modelled data spanning the entirety of the UK, measurement data from the UK’s air quality monitoring networks further illustrates the UK wide trends in reduced concentrations of NO₂, PM_2.5and PM₁₀between 2022 and 2023

The highest concentrations of nitrogen dioxide emissions are found in urban areas and near busy roads, reflecting the contribution of traffic and urban activities to poor air quality.

Air pollution has a significant effect on public health. There are currently 44 air quality management areas declared in Wales. One was designated due to the risk of PM₁₀ particulate matter levels exceeding the daily 24-hour mean air quality objective for PM₁₀, and the remainder designated where levels of NO₂ exceed or risk exceeding the air quality objectives for NO₂.

In 2022, the UK Health Security Agency reported that the mortality burden attributed to long term outdoor air pollution in the UK, using 2019 data, has ‘an effect equivalent to’ between 29,000 and 43,000 deaths per year. This was amongst adults aged 30 years and over. The estimate for Wales is ‘an effect equivalent to’ 1,200 to 2,000 deaths amongst those aged 30 years and over. It is important to note these are not actual deaths; the estimate relates to air pollution being regarded as contributing to mortality based on evidence that shows air pollution reduces life expectancy for everyone.

Figure 2.2: Air quality indicators, 2007 to 2022

Description of Figure 2.2: A line chart showing a general improvement in air quality indicators over the period 2007 to 2022.

Source: Air Quality Emissions Indicators

Waste and recycling

Wales has made considerable progress in managing waste over the last decade by increasing the amount sent for recycling, and reducing the amount sent for disposal. Wales is a world leader in household recycling, but we continue to use up resources faster than they can be replenished.

There was a considerable decrease in the amount of waste generated, that is not recycled, per person, between 2012 and 2019 (from 794kg to 523kg). The amount of waste not recycled decreased for each of the three components that comprise this national indicator:

household waste
industrial and commercial waste
construction and demolition waste

Whilst the industrial and commercial, and the construction and demolition waste components are measured periodically through surveys, more regular and up-to-date data is available on household waste.

The amount of household waste generated, but not recycled per person has generally decreased over the last decade, with some fluctuation in 2019-20 and 2020-21 likely due to COVID-19. In 2022-23, on average 172kg of household waste generated was not recycled per person.

The recycling rate (i.e. the percentage of local authority municipal waste that was reused, recycled or composted) has increased considerably during the last two decades – from around 5% in the late 1990s to nearly two-thirds (65.7%) in 2022-23.

Figure 2.3: Percentage of local authority municipal waste reused/recycled/composted, 2012-13 to 2022-23

Description of Figure 2.3: A line chart showing that the percentage of municipal waste reused/recycled/composted in Wales generally increased from 52.3% in 2012-13 to 65.7% in 2021-22.

Source: Local Authority Municipal Waste

Renewable energy generation

Around 27% of electricity generated in Wales was from renewable sources in 2022, down from 33% in 2020 due to the significant increase in generation from non-renewable sources. The equivalent percentage of Welsh electricity consumption met by renewable electricity generation increased from 55% in 2021 to 59% in 2022. This was mainly driven by a fall in electricity consumption.

The national indicator on renewable energy relates to renewable energy generation capacity. The vast majority of renewable energy capacity in Wales is electrical capacity – with 18% of total installed renewable capacity providing heat.

The capacity of renewable energy projects in Wales (electricity and heat) has increased considerably over the last decade, though progress has slowed in recent years. At the end of 2022, the installed electrical capacity for renewable energy was 3,551 megawatts (MW), slightly higher than the previous year and more than twice the capacity in 2012. At the end of 2022, the total renewable heat capacity in Wales was 798 MW, 8% more than the previous year and nearly 14 times the heat capacity in 2012. The installation rate for electrical capacity in 2022 was the second lowest in the last decade, but the installation rate for heat capacity was at its highest rate since 2018.

Wales remains a net exporter of electricity, generating over twice as much electricity as it consumes on an annual basis.

Figure 2.4: Renewable energy generation capacity, 2012 to 2022

Description of Figure 2.4: A line chart showing an overall considerable increase in both renewable electrical and heat capacity in Wales between 2012 and 2022, with the increase slowing in recent years.

Source: Energy Generation in Wales report

The national milestone on dwelling energy performance is that all homes in Wales will have adequate and cost-effective energy performance by 2050. According to the Welsh Housing Conditions Survey, 2017-18, 47% of residential dwellings were considered to have adequate energy performance (a SAP rating of 65 or above).

Data sources

Global footprint

Understanding the Global Environmental Footprint and Impacts of Welsh Consumption (JNCC)

Biodiversity and habitat

State of Natural Resources report (Natural Resources Wales)

ERAMMP report: development of Indicator-44 (Status of Biological Diversity in Wales) (ERAMMP)

UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS)

Breeding Bird Survey (British Trust for Ornithology)

Summary of Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP) results

Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP)

Water

State of Natural Resources Report (Natural Resources Wales)

River Basin Management Plans, 2021 - 2027 (Natural Resources Wales)

Compliance Assessment of Welsh River SACs Against Phosphorus Targets (Natural Resources Wales)

Assessment of water quality in protected rivers in Wales (Natural Resources Wales)

Wales Bathing Water Report (Natural Resources Wales)

Flood Risk Assessment Wales (Natural Resources Wales)

Air quality

Air quality average concentration indicators (StatsWales)

Air Quality Statistics in the UK (DeFRA)

Air quality management areas (Air Quality Wales)

Chemical hazards and poisons report: issue 28 (UK Health Security Agency)

Recycling and resource use

Local authority municipal waste (StatsWales)

UK Statistics on waste (DeFRA)

Survey of Industrial and Commercial Waste Generated in Wales 2018 (Natural Resources Wales)

2019 Wales Construction & Demolition Waste Arisings Survey (Natural Resources Wales)

Energy

Low carbon energy generation data (StatsWales)

Energy generation in Wales 2022

Welsh Housing Condition Survey

A healthier Wales

The goal for a healthier Wales

Author: Dr William Perks

A healthier Wales: a society in which people’s physical and mental wellbeing is maximised and in which choices and behaviours that benefit future health are understood.

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

Life expectancy fell for the second period in a row, which includes the period of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
Life expectancy continues to be higher for females than males.
Healthy life expectancy fell compared to the previous period.
Healthy life expectancy was higher in males than females in the latest period.
Deaths from all causes increased in the last year compared to the previous, but was lower than the high number of deaths seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Age-standardised mortality rates improved in the last year compared to the previous.
The gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived areas was similar to the previous period for both females and males.
There has been a slight upward trend in the number of low birth weight babies, with 2022 being the highest on record. This figure remained unchanged in 2023.
Breastfeeding rates were the highest on record.
Pregnant women’s healthy lifestyle behaviours at initial assessment were mixed, with a lower percentage of women reported as smokers, but a higher percentage recorded as obese or with a mental health condition than the previous year.
Life satisfaction and anxiety levels for adults deteriorated compared to the previous year.

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

Limited progress appears to have been made towards achieving the goal, with many of the healthier Wales national indicators remaining relatively stable and not showing significant change over the periods in which they are available. The pandemic has also had a dominant effect on many of the trends, and the implications for longer term trends is unclear.

Life expectancy had been rising since the Second World War, although at a slower pace in the past decade. However, it has fallen for the second period in a row, which includes the period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The national milestone on healthy life expectancy is to increase the healthy life expectancy of adults and narrow the gap in healthy life expectancy between the least and the most deprived by at least 15% by 2050. The data shows healthy life expectancy at birth for females and males has fallen between 2011-13 and 2020-22. Whereas the gap in healthy life expectancy between most and least deprived areas appears to have improved slightly for males but deteriorated slightly for females, although these are not significantly different.

Over the long-term, age-standardised mortality rates, which allow for better comparisons over time and area because they account for the population size and age structure, have been improving.

The proportion of babies born with a low birth weight has remained relatively steady over the course of the time series, typically fluctuating between 5% and 6%, but more recent years have seen increases in the percentage of babies with a low birth weight.

The national milestone is to increase the percentage of adults with two or more healthy behaviours to 97% by 2050. Between 2016-17 and 2019-20 there was a deterioration in the proportion of adults who reported two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours and is short of the national milestone. The trend since 2020-21 has been stable but this is not comparable with previous years, due to the change in the mode of the National Survey for Wales.

The national milestone is to increase the percentage of children with two or more healthy behaviours to 94% by 2035 and more than 99% by 2050. The percentage of young people meeting the national milestone has improved and in 2021/22 was 89.8% higher than the 87.7% reported in 2017/18.

The national milestone on mental wellbeing is to improve adult and children’s mean mental wellbeing and eliminate the gap in adult and children’s mean mental wellbeing between the most deprived and least deprived areas in Wales by 2050.

Adult average mental wellbeing was similar compared to the year prior. The gap in the average wellbeing score between those from the most and least deprived areas appears to have widened since 2020-21. However, due to the difference in collection mode, it is difficult to draw longer term comparisons for this indicator.

When measuring young people’s mental wellbeing using the new measure for the national indicator, the average score for young people was lower in 2021/22 compared to 2017/18, indicating a fall in mental wellbeing. The gap in the average score between those from low and high family affluence has narrowed, but only due to a deterioration in the score of those from high family affluence.

Housing conditions have improved. The most recent Welsh Housing Conditions Survey showed that 82% of dwellings were free from the most serious (category 1) hazards in 2017-18, compared with 71% in 2008. There were improvements in all tenures.

Life expectancy

Life expectancy had been rising since the Second World War, although at a slower pace in the past decade.

Analysis shows that for both males and females, people aged around 60 to 84 years were the main contributors to increasing life expectancy, but these improvements have slowed down considerably.

Life expectancy fell in the most recent period available (2020-22), which includes the period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Life expectancy at birth was 81.8 years for females and 77.9 years for males for 2020-22. This was a slight reduction for both males and females, following higher death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the most recent period for healthy life expectancy (2020-22), healthy life expectancy was 61.1 years for males and 60.3 years for females, a decrease for both males and females compared with 2011-13, when the time series began. Healthy life expectancy for females also fell below that of males for the first time.

Figure 3.1: Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, by sex, 2001-03 to 2020-22 [Note 1]

Description of Figure 3.1: A line chart showing increases in life expectancy for males and females have stalled in recent years and in the most recent period fallen. Healthy life expectancy has also decreased, especially for females compared with 2011-13 when the time series began.

Source: Life expectancy and Health state life expectancies in England, Northern Ireland and Wales, Office for National Statistics (ONS)

[Note 1] Y axis does not start at zero

Causes of deaths

In 2023, there were 36,054 deaths from all causes. This was an increase on 2022 but lower than the high number of deaths seen in 2020 and 2021. This was also still higher than historical numbers recorded prior to the pandemic.

The leading causes of death in 2022 were from Ischaemic heart diseases (3,922), followed by Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (3,833), both with almost double the number of deaths than any other cause of death. These have historically been the highest causes of death.

Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) allow for better comparisons over time and area because they account for the population size and age structure.

Based on data up to 2022, over the long-term ASMRs have been improving, falling from 1,406 deaths per 100,000 people in 1994 to 1,056 deaths per 100,000 people in 2022.

In 2022, the ASMRs were significantly higher for males, 1,217 deaths per 100,000, than for females, 924 deaths per 100,000 females.

In 2022, 22.7% of all deaths were considered avoidable (8,114 of 35,694 deaths) lower than in 2021. Over the long-term ASMRs for avoidable deaths have been improving, falling from 376.1 deaths per 100,000 people in 2001 to 273.8 deaths per 100,000 people in 2022.

Neoplasms (cancers) remain the leading cause of avoidable mortality, but the avoidable mortality rates for neoplasms have continued to decline. In 2022, the ASMR for neoplasms was 84.1 per 100,000 people, compared with 115.0 in 2001.

The mortality rate for avoidable alcohol-related and drug-related deaths has continued to increase. The ASMR for alcohol-related and drug-related deaths was 30.2 per 100,000 people in 2022, compared with 21.2 in 2001.

Figure 3.2: Age-standardised mortality rates, 1994 to 2022

Description of Figure 3.2: A line chart showing improvemnts in age-standardised mortality rates over the long-term

Source: Deaths registered in England and Wales, ONS

Inequalities in life expectancy and mortality

The national milestone on healthy life expectancy is to increase the healthy life expectancy of adults and narrow the gap in healthy life expectancy between the least and the most deprived by at least 15% by 2050.

Inequalities in life expectancy and mortality remain wide.

Analysis based on 2018-20 data shows that the overall gap in healthy life expectancy between the most and least deprived areas has remained relatively stable between 2011-13 and 2018-20. In the most recent time period, this gap seems to have reduced slightly for males (13.3 years) and increased slightly for females (16.9 years).

The life expectancy gap is much narrower at 7.6 years for males and 6.4 years for females. But it has been generally increasing in recent years for males and females, suggestive of growing inequality.

Males also spend more of their life in good health compared to females.

The most recent data on socioeconomic inequalities in avoidable mortality is from 2020 where the proportion of total deaths that were avoidable continued to be substantially larger in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived areas.

Avoidable deaths accounted for 37.0% of all male deaths in the most deprived areas compared with 18.9% in the least deprived areas. For females the equivalent figures were 25.7% in the most deprived areas and 14.1% in the least deprived areas.

In 2020, the absolute gap in avoidable mortality between the most and least deprived areas widened to the highest level since 2003 for males and since the data time series began for females.

Figure 3.3: Absolute gap in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy between most and least deprived areas, males and females, 2011-13 to 2020-22 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Description of Figure 3.3: A line chart showing absolute gap in life expectancy between 2011-13 to 2020-22 and healthy life expectancy for males and females between 2011-13 to 2018-20. Females have a higher life expectancy but males have a higher healthy life expectancy.

Source: Public Health Outcomes Framework for Wales reporting tool, Public Health Wales (PHW)

[Note 1] The gap in health expectancies is calculated as the absolute difference between the least and most deprived fifths. This is a change of method since previous health expectancies releases, to improve the stability of the measure at local authority level. The gap was previously calculated using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII). ONS continue to publish the SII at national level as part of their Health state life expectancies release.

[Note 2] The gap in healthy life expectancy between most and least deprived areas for 2020-22 is not currently available.

Healthy babies

The percentage of low birth weight babies has remained relatively steady over the course of the time series, typically fluctuating between 5% and 6%.

The lowest figures on record were recorded in 2014 and 2015. Since then there has been a slight upward trend in the number of low birth weight babies, with 2022 being the highest on record. This figure remained unchanged in 2023.

In 2023, a slightly higher percentage of female babies had low birth weight (6.7%) compared to male babies (5.5%). This is broadly consistent with the longer-term trend.

In the last decade breastfeeding rates at all points of time have been increasing, with rates in 2023 becoming the highest on record. The latest annual data in 2023 showed the percentage of babies breastfed at birth was 65.5%. This was 3.6 percentage points higher than five years ago.

Figure 3.4: Percentage of singleton births with a birth weight of under 2,500g, 2005 to 2023

Description of Figure 3.4: A line chart showing the percentage of live singleton births with a birth weight of under 2,500g. The rate has typically fluctuated between 5% and 6% over the course of the time series, with a slight upward trend since 2014.

Source: Maternity and birth statistics, Welsh Government

Maternal health

In 2023, the data continues to show mixed results for healthy lifestyle behaviours of pregnant women at initial assessment, with a lower percentage of women reporting as smokers, but a higher percentage recorded as obese or as having a mental health condition than in the previous year.

In 2023, 13.8% of pregnant women were recorded as smokers at their initial assessment. This continues the downward trend since data was first collected in 2016 and is slightly lower than in the previous year. However, between 2021 and 2022 nearly all data has been self-reported to reduce the risks of spreading COVID-19, rather than being carbon monoxide monitored and may impact direct comparisons prior to this. CO monitoring resumed in 2023 and the percentage of women CO monitored at initial assessment rose to 17%.

Just over three out of ten (32%) pregnant women had a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or greater at their initial assessment. The longer-term upward trend continued as the percentage in 2023 was 1 percentage point higher than in the previous year and six percentage points higher than in 2016 (the first year of comparable data).

Just over three out of ten (32%) pregnant women reported a mental health condition at their initial assessment. This also continued a longer-term upward trend, with the latest data 2 percentage point higher than in the previous year, and 13 percentage points higher than in 2016.

The number of live births fell to its lowest number in 2023 since broadly comparable data was collected in 1929. For the 30 years prior to 2018, the number of live births in Wales ranged between 30,000 and 37,000 per year but has been below 30,000 in every year since. The number of live births has decreased by 23.2% compared with 10 years ago.

Healthy lifestyle behaviours

The national milestones on adult and children’s healthy lifestyle behaviours are:

to increase the percentage with two or more healthy behaviours to more than 97% for adults by 2050.
to increase the percentage with two or more healthy behaviours to 94% for children by 2035, and to more 99% by 2050.

The National Survey for Wales was adapted due to the pandemic, with a change in the mode of the survey (telephone interviews replacing face-to-face interviews) and changes to some questions compared with previous years. As these topics can be sensitive to such changes it is not possible to compare the results directly with data from years prior to 2020-21.

Prior to the pandemic, between 2016-18 and 2019-20 the percentage of adults with two or more healthy behaviours has deteriorated and is short of the national milestone. The trend since 2020-21 has been stable but is not comparable with previous years.

The most recent data presented here is for April 2022 to March 2023. Where the majority (92.3%) of adults reported following two or more of the five healthy lifestyle behaviours. This includes not currently smoking, drinking within weekly guidelines, eating five or more portions of fruit or vegetables the previous day, being active for 150 minutes or more the previous week and being a healthy weight.

In 2022-23, the percentage of adults with two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours was lower for males (compared with females), people aged between 45 to 64 (compared to those from younger or older age groups) and people from a more deprived area (compared with those from a less deprived area).

Due to the sample size of the National Survey for Wales, breakdowns by other protected characteristics are limited, therefore the below analysis combines 4 years of data (from 2016-17 to 2019-20) to be able to analyse these. In addition, this analysis is based on age-standardised results to take account of differences in the age profile in different groups.

Adults identifying as bisexual were more likely to report having two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours (compared with those in other sexual orientation groups) as were adults who were not disabled (compared with those who were disabled).

Adults reporting no religion were less likely to report having two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours than those in other religious groups; those identifying as Muslim were most likely to do so (although the difference compared with the Other religion group was not statistically significant) and adults who were married or in a civil partnership were more likely to report having two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours than those who were single or those who were separated or divorced.

Figure 3.5: Percentage of adults with two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours, 2016-17 to 2022-23 [Note 1] [Note 2] [Note 3]

Description of Figure 3.5: A line chart showing the percentage of adults with two or more healthy behaviours deteriorated between 2016-17 and 2019-20. The trend since 2020-21 has been stable but is not comparable with previous years.

Source: National Survey for Wales, Welsh Government

[Note 1] Results from 2020-21 are not comparable with previous years due to changes in the survey

[Note 2] Results from 2020-21 are for quarter 4 only and not annual data

[Note 3] Y axis does not start at zero

The School Health Research Network Student Health and Wellbeing survey showed the percentage of young people (11 to 16 year olds) meeting the national milestone in 2021/22 academic year was 89.8%, higher than the 87.7% reported in 2019/20 and 2017/18 academic years.

These healthy lifestyle behaviours include not smoking, never or rarely drinking alcohol, eating fruit or vegetables every day and being physically active for an hour or more per day, over the past seven days. For these underlying behaviours in 2021/22 academic year:

95% of young people reported that they did not smoke
83% of young people reported that they never or rarely drank alcohol
45% of young people reported that they ate fruit or vegetables every day
16% of young people reported that they had been physically active for an hour or more per day, over the past seven days

Between 2017/18 and 2021/22 academic years, young people reporting that they did not smoke and that they never or rarely drank alcohol has shown slight improvements. Whereas those reporting that they ate fruit or vegetables every day or had been physically active for an hour or more per day over the past seven days have shown a slight decline.

In 2021/22 academic year, those who were younger, male (91%) and in the high family affluence group (90%) had the highest percentage of young people with two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours, compared to those who identified as neither a boy nor a girl (84%), were in the low family affluence group (89%) or were older, who had the lowest.

Reported physical activity levels declined with age in secondary school, and boys (rather than girls or young people who identified as neither a boy nor a girl) and those in the high family affluence group (rather than medium or low family affluence) were more likely to report being physically active for an hour or more per day, over the past seven days.

The percentage of young people who reported that they eat fruit or vegetables every day also declined with age in secondary school, with girls (rather than boys or young people who identified as neither a boy nor a girl) and those in the high family affluence group (rather than medium or low family affluence) more likely to report that they eat fruit or vegetables every day.

The percentage of young people who reported that they did not smoke declined with age during secondary school. Both girls and boys (compared with young people who identified as neither a boy nor a girl) and those in the high and medium family affluence group (compared with low family affluence) were more likely to report they did not smoke.

The percentage of young people who reported that they never or rarely drank alcohol fell with age during secondary school. Both girls and boys (compared with young people who identified as neither a boy nor a girl) and those in the low family affluence group (compared with high and medium family affluence) were more likely to report that they never or rarely drank alcohol.

Figure 3.6: Percentage of young people aged 11 to 16 with two or more healthy behaviours, 2017/18 (academic year) to 2021/22

Description of Figure 3.6: A line chart showing the percentage of young people aged 11 to 16 with two or more healthy behaviours has improved between 2017/18 and 2021/22.

Source: School Health Research Network Student Health and Wellbeing Survey

[Note 1] Y axis does not start at zero

Mental health and wellbeing in adults

The national milestone on mental wellbeing is to improve adults’ and children’s mean mental wellbeing and eliminate the gap in adults’ and children’s mean mental wellbeing between the most deprived and least deprived areas in Wales by 2050

The National Survey for Wales was adapted due to the pandemic, with a change in the mode of the survey (telephone interviews replacing face-to-face interviews) and changes to some questions compared with previous years. As these topics can be sensitive to such changes it is not possible to compare the results directly with data from years prior to 2020-21.

Adults were asked about their mental wellbeing and results were scored using the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS). A higher score (58 to 70) suggests high mental wellbeing, while scoring 44 or lower suggests having a low mental wellbeing. Scoring between 45 and 57 suggests the person has medium mental wellbeing.

The overall average WEMWBS score in latest available data from the National survey (2022-23) was 48.2, meaning on average responders had medium mental wellbeing. This is a similar average WEMWEBS score to that in 2021-22.

The gap in the average WEMWEBS score between those from the most and least deprived WIMD quintiles appears to have widened in the latest period compared to 2020-21.

When looking at the breakdowns of responder scores, 32% of adults scores corresponded to a low mental wellbeing, 55% to a medium mental wellbeing and 13% to a high mental wellbeing.

On average younger adults have lower mental wellbeing (with those aged 16 to 24 having a WEMWBS score of 47.4) than those aged 65 and over (WEMWBS score of 51.3).

Adults in better general health also had better mental wellbeing. As general health declined, so did the average mental wellbeing score. Those with good general health had an average mental wellbeing score of 50.4, whilst those with bad general health had an average mental wellbeing score of 39.1.

Adults who say they are lonely also have lower mental wellbeing on average (WEMWBS score of 39.0) than those who are sometimes lonely (WEMWBS score of 47.4) or never lonely (WEMWBS score of 52.0).

These interactions with age and health show the same trend as previous years, but the change in mode should also be considered when comparing the results.

Average life satisfaction had been increasing for almost a decade since 2011-12, accompanied with slight reductions in average anxiety levels. However, in 2020-21 life satisfaction and anxiety levels deteriorated to levels worse than those seen in 2011-12, likely due to impacts from the pandemic and, although scores in 2021-22 scores improved slightly, 2022-23 returned to those similar in 2020-21.

Figure 3.7: Average Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale score for adults, 2016-17 to 2022-23 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Description of Figure 3.7: A line chart showing the average Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWEBS) score for adults did not show any significant change between 2016-17 and 2019-20 or since 2020-21. The gap in the average WEMWEBS score between those from the most and least deprived areas appears to have widened since 2020-21. However understanding a longer-term trend for this milestone is not possible due to changes in the data collection.

Source: National Survey for Wales, Welsh Government

[Note 1] Results from 2020-21 are not comparable with previous years due to changes in the survey

[Note 2] Y axis does not start at zero

Mental health and wellbeing in children

The underlying measure used to calculate the national indicator for children’s mental wellbeing has changed compared to previous updates of the Wellbeing of Wales report. This indicator is now calculated using the Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (SWEMWBS) using the School Health Research Network (SHRN) Student Health and Wellbeing Survey. The indicator was previously measured using the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). This change has been made as SWEMWBS, which captures both a person’s happiness and the extent to which a person is fully functional, is better aligned to the national indicator compared to the SDQ, which is a screening questionnaire for measuring psychological strengths and difficulties. The new measure also aligns better with the measure used for adults’ mental wellbeing (WEMWBS).

A higher overall SWEMWBS score is indicative of more positive mental wellbeing. Scores from the SWEMWBS is based on a shorter set of questions to the adult WEMWBS and so scores are not directly equivalent.

When measuring children’s mental wellbeing using the new measure (SWEMWBS) for the national indicator, the average SWEMWBS score for young people (11 to 16 year olds) was lower in the 2021/22 academic year (23.0), compared to 2017/18 (23.9) indicating a fall in mental wellbeing.

The gap in the average SWEMWEBS score between those from low and high family affluence has narrowed, but only due to a deterioration in the score of those from high family affluence.

Breakdowns by gender, showed those self-identifying as neither a boy nor a girl reported the lowest mental wellbeing, and girls reported lower mental wellbeing than boys. Mental wellbeing scores also declined with age.

78% of young people rated their life satisfaction as 6 or above on the Cantril Ladder (where scores range from 0 to 10, and a score of 6 or above was defined as high life satisfaction) in the 2021/22 academic year, showing a declining trend from the 2017/18 academic year when 85% of young people rated their life satisfaction as 6 or above.

Boys (85%) were more likely than girls (74%) to be satisfied with their life, while life satisfaction was markedly lower among young people who identified as neither a boy nor a girl (43%).

Life satisfaction also declined with age and was lowest in the low family affluence group.

Further data on health behaviour in school-aged children is available from the School Health Research Network Student Health and Wellbeing Survey.

Figure 3.8: Average Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale score for young people aged 11 to 16, 2017/18 (academic year) to 2021/22

Description of Figure 3.8: A line chart showing the average Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (SWEMWEBS) score for young people aged 11 to 16 has declined between 2017/18 and 2021/22. The gap in the average SWEMWEBS score between those from low and high family affluence has narrowed, but only due to a deterioration in the score of those from high family affluence

Source: School Health Research Network Student Health and Wellbeing Survey

[Note 1] Y axis does not start at zero

Hazardous housing

A range of factors are important to everyone's health. For example employment, air pollution and housing all impact on overall health outcomes.

Housing conditions in Wales have improved over the 10 years to 2017-18, reducing the potential risk to the health of occupants.

The most recent Welsh Housing Conditions Survey showed that 82% of dwellings were free from the most serious (category 1) hazards in 2017-18, compared with 71% in 2008. There were improvements in all tenures.

The Welsh Government also collects data on Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS) assessments carried out by local authorities. The latest data shows that in 2022-23, 70% of local authority HHSRS assessments were free from category 1 hazards, consistent with the previous year and the years observed prior to the pandemic. Local authority HHSRS assessments are generally carried out in the private rented sector and only under particular circumstances (for example, when a complaint is received about a dwelling). For this reason, data on local authority HHSRS assessments is not directly comparable with the results of the WHCS.

Data sources

Annual personal well-being estimate (ONS)

Avoidable mortality in Great Britain (ONS)

Breastfeeding data

Deaths registered in England and Wales (ONS)

Deaths registered summary statistics (ONS)

Health state life expectancies in England, Northern Ireland and Wales (ONS)

Health expectancies in Wales with inequality gap (PHW)

Life expectancy for local areas of the UK (ONS)

Life Expectancy and Mortality in Wales (PHW)

Maternity and birth statistics

National Survey for Wales

Public Health Outcomes Framework for Wales reporting tool (PHW)

Socioeconomic inequalities in avoidable mortality in Wales (ONS)

Student Health and Wellbeing Survey (School Health Research Network)

Welsh Housing Conditions Survey (assessment of elements of the Welsh Housing Quality Standard)

Housing hazards and licences

A more equal Wales

The goal for a more equal Wales

Author: Scott Clifford

A more equal Wales: a society that enables people to fulfil their potential no matter what their background or circumstances (including their socio-economic background and circumstances).

This chapter is organised by protected characteristic and brings together equality breakdowns for indicators where these are available. However, not all equality breakdowns are covered in this chapter and the extent and quality of available data varies by protected characteristic.

This chapter previously included a section which focused on data relating to socio-economic disadvantage. However, it included limited information on socio-economic background and the impact of this on people fulfilling their potential. We will continue to review the content of this chapter as more data on socio-economic background becomes available.

There is a national milestone to reduce the poverty gap between people in Wales with certain key and protected characteristics (which mean they are most likely to be in poverty) and those without those characteristics by 2035. Where data sources on income poverty and material deprivation are available by protected characteristics they have been included throughout this chapter. For more general information on socio-economic disadvantage see a more prosperous Wales chapter.

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

Some of the indicators that have breakdowns for protected characteristics are not updated annually. There is also no new National Survey for Wales data this year, so there are fewer areas where the data has been updated.

Girls continue to achieve better educational outcomes at GCSE. In summer 2023, 69.7% of entries for girls were awarded grades A* to C. This was 7.3 percentage points higher than boys. The gap has narrowed slightly in recent years.

Children from some ethnic groups continue to achieve better on average in school compared to others, with 72.3% of GCSE entries by Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic pupils awarded A* to C grades in summer 2023 compared to 65.5% for White British pupils. This gap has widened since 2018/19 when it was 3.3 percentage points (6.8 percentage points in 2022/23).

There continue to be wide disparities seen between pupils from different ethnic groups with Gypsy, Traveller, Roma, and Caribbean pupils achieving a lower percentage of results at A* to C than White British pupils in 2022/23.

The proportion of disabled adults of working age with no qualifications decreased by 2.4 percentage points between 2022 and 2023. Although disabled people remained more likely to have no qualifications (13.9%) than non-disabled people (5.6%).

Employment rates in Wales remain lower for women than for men (70.2% and 76.8% respectively in the year ending March 2024). The gap has grown to 6.6 percentage points from 4.8 percentage points the previous year.

Employment rates (year ending March 2024) among the Welsh population aged 16 to 64 are higher among individuals from a White ethnic background (74.0%) than for individuals from a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic background (66.2%). This gap in employment rates has grown from the previous year.

The employment rate gap for disabled people in 2024, of 30.9 percentage points, has reduced from 35.4 percentage points in 2016.

In April 2023, the (full-time) gender pay gap was 5.6%, unchanged from the previous year.

The pay difference for disabled people in Wales was £1.75 (12.2%) in 2023. This means that disabled people in Wales earned, on average, £1.75 less per hour than non-disabled people. This is an increase on the previous year when the pay gap was £1.32 (9.7%).

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees earned, on average £1.93 (13.8%) less per hour than White employees in 2023. This compares to an ethnicity pay difference of £2.23 (or 16.8%) in 2022.

Children continue to be the population group most likely to be in relative income poverty after housing costs. Latest data (2020-21 to 2022-23) shows that this was the case for 29% of children in Wales compared to 16% of pensioners.

Being part of a Black, Asian or Minority Ethnic group is linked with a greater likelihood of relative income poverty. For the period 2018-19 to 2022-23 there was a 50% likelihood for people whose head of household identifies as Black, Asian or part of a Minority Ethnic group to be living in relative income poverty, compared to a 22% likelihood for those whose head of household identifies as White.

In the latest period (2020-21 to 2022-23), for working-age adults, 25% of individuals who lived in a family where someone was disabled were in relative income poverty compared with 18% of those in families where no-one was disabled.

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

There has been mixed progress towards achieving the goal. Some of the national indicators show improvement in recent years, in particular, the decreases in the employment gap for disabled people and the proportion of disabled people with no qualifications. However, some of the indicators and related contextual data show little sign of improvement or have deteriorated such as the gap in material deprivation between men and women and the ethnicity pay gap.

The cost of living crisis and longer term impacts from the pandemic are both likely to have exacerbated inequality for people who were already disadvantaged. However, the ongoing impacts of these events may not yet be fully reflected in recent data trends.

There is a national milestone to eliminate the pay gap for gender, disability and ethnicity by 2050. The gender pay gap has generally been narrowing over the last two decades, although has been relatively stable in the last 5 years at around 5%. Both the ethnicity and disability pay gap have shown less progress. The ethnicity pay gap data is more volatile although has generally been increasing since 2019. The disability pay gap had been declining from a peak in 2019 although it did increase to 12.2% between 2022 and 2023.

The gap between the employment rate for different groups has generally decreased over the last decade. Between March 2014 and March 2024, the gap between the employment rate of disabled and non-disabled individuals has decreased by 4.3 percentage points and the gap between White individuals and those from a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic background has decreased by 5.0 percentage points.

Material deprivation had been decreasing between 2017-18 and 2021-22, but in 2022-23 it increased back to similar levels seen in 2017-18. Over that time the gap between men and women got larger. The difference between age groups and by disability remained similar with older adults and non-disabled individuals generally less likely to live in households in material deprivation.

The percentage of people reporting feeling lonely has been stable between 2020-21 and 2022-23 at 13% which is 4 percentage points lower than in 2016-17. Age groups below 65 have generally seen a fall in loneliness over this time with older age groups remaining stable although maintaining lower levels of self-reported loneliness than younger age groups. While loneliness has decreased for most groups between 2016-17 and 2022-23, the differences between sexes, ethnic groups and disabled/non-disabled people have remained similar.

Between 2016-17 and 2021-22 the percentage of men reporting feeling safe at home, walking in the local area and travelling remained broadly the same at just over 80%. For women the percentage reporting feeling safe decreased from 56% to 51%.

Sex

The indicators show differences in education, employment, deprivation, health, and wellbeing between men and women.

This section and chapter uses a range of data sources on sex. Each data source will have an approach to collecting data on sex or gender that is aligned to its user needs, which means there will be limited consistency between the definitions of sex and gender across the sources. The later section on gender identity includes data on those whose gender identity differs from their sex registered at birth.

Girls continue to achieve better educational outcomes at GCSE and are more likely to continue in full time education beyond age 16. The percentage of girls’ GCSE entries achieving A* to C in 2022/23 was 69.7%. This was 7.3 percentage points higher than for boys (62.4%).

In 2022/23 girls scored 370.5 and boys scored 346.4 points on average in the GCSE Capped 9 indicator (interim measure version). This means that women score higher than men by 24.0 points. This narrowed from a gap of 32.9 points in 2018/19, the last time that the Capped 9 indicator (interim measure version) was reported on.

In terms of the working age population, an estimated 8.7% of men held no qualifications in 2023 compared with 7.1% of women. There were higher proportions of men than women with no qualifications in all age groups apart from 50 to 59 year olds. Women were more likely to hold qualifications at or above NQF level 4.

In 2022, a higher proportion of women aged 16 to 24 were in full-time education compared with men. Participation in training was higher for men. In 2022, 11.2% of men aged 16 to 18 were not in education, employment or training (NEET), compared to 15.5% for women. For those aged 19 to 24, 11.2% of women were NEET, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points compared to 2021. This is driven by an increase in the proportion of those in employment and a decrease in the proportion of those who were economically inactive. For men aged 19 to 24, 17.6% were NEET in 2022, an increase from 17.4% in 2021.

Employment rates in Wales are lower for women than for men (70.2% and 76.8% respectively in the year ending March 2024). This relates to the higher economic inactivity rates (excluding students) for women (24.5%) than men (16.2%) over this period. This difference is to some extent driven by caring responsibilities (looking after family/home) which represents a higher proportion of women who were economically inactive than men.

Figure 4.1: Employment rate (percentage of population aged 16 to 64) by sex and year, 2005-06 to 2023-24 (rates for year ending March)

Description of Figure 4.1: A line chart showing employment rates for those aged between 16 and 64 by sex between 2005-06 and 2023-24. The employment rate gap widened in 2023-24 as the employment rate for men increased by 1.4 percentage points to 76.8%, while the employment rate for women decreased slightly to 70.2%.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of the Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics (ONS)

The gender pay gap, based on median hourly full-time earnings (excluding overtime), stood at 5.6% in 2023, unchanged from the previous year. However, for part-time employees in Wales, women were paid 5.4% more than men on average (an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year).

When considering both full time and part time employees, the gender pay gap remains considerably higher at 11.8% in 2023. This is higher than for each of full-time employees and part-time employees, because women fill more part-time jobs, which in comparison with full-time jobs have lower hourly median pay. Of the 11 UK countries and regions where women are paid less than men, Wales had the second smallest (full-time employees) gender pay gap.

The real Living Wage is the only UK wage rate based on the cost of living. In 2023, the proportion of women earning at least the real Living Wage (58.5%) is much lower than for men (68.3%), again largely reflecting the fact that women are more likely to work part-time and part-time jobs tend to be lower paid.

In 2022-23, a higher percentage of women (19%) relative to men (12%) were classed as materially deprived.

Life expectancy is longer for women than for men, but the proportion of life spent in good health is higher for men. For more in-depth information on life expectancy by sex see a healthier Wales chapter.

In 2022-23, self-reported mental wellbeing (as measured by the Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale for adults) was slightly higher for men than women, with men having a mean score of 48.4 and women having a mean score of 48.1. Self-reported levels of loneliness were similar for men and women in 2022-23. Suicide rates, however, remain more than three times higher for men than women.

In 2021-22, women were less likely to report feeling safe at home, in their local area and travelling (51%) compared to men (81%). Although, there was no significant difference between men and woman agreeing that they belong to an area or that people treat each other with respect.

Age

The population of Wales is ageing. The estimated proportion of the population aged 65 or older in 2023 was 21.6%, up from 19.5% in 2013. The population aged over 65 is larger than the population aged under 16 (17.3% in 2023). The indicators show differences in wellbeing, sense of community and deprivation across different age groups.

Self-reported wellbeing tends to be higher in older age groups with loneliness also being lower in older adults. In 2022-23, 16% of people aged 16 to 24 reported feeling lonely compared to 9% for those aged 65 to 74 and those aged 75 and over.

Older people are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion (belonging, people of different backgrounds get on, treated with respect). The proportion agreeing with all three statements in 2021-22 was 57% for 16 to 24 year olds and 77% for those aged 75 and above.

Children are the population group most likely to be in relative income poverty. The most recent figures show that 29% of children in Wales were in relative poverty compared to 16% of pensioners. Since the early 2000s a higher proportion of the working-age population has been in relative income poverty than pensioners.

When looking at the proportion of the adult population living in material deprivation in 2022-23, there is a similar picture with those aged 25 to 44 most likely to live in material deprivation (23%) and those aged 75 and over being least likely (4%).

Figure 4.2: Material Deprivation by age group and year, 2016-17 to 2022-23 (year ending March) [Note 1]

[Note 1] The year 2020-21 has no data.

Description of Figure 4.2: A line chart showing the percentage of different age groups in material deprivation between 2016-17 and 2022-23. Material deprivation has been highest for the 25 to 44 age group and lowest for the 65 to 74 and 75 and over age groups over this time period. Due to uncertainty in the estimates the changes within age groups are generally not significant, however the differences between age groups are.

Source: National Survey for Wales, Welsh Government

Ethnicity

In June 2022 the Welsh Government published its Anti-Racist Wales Action Plan (ARWAP) which includes guidance on anti-racist language. This section and chapter uses a range of data sources with different categorisations of ethnic group. In general, we reflect the language of the source data collection which may not align with the ARWAP guidance. However, we have used anti-racist language in this chapter where possible.

93.8% of the Welsh population (2.9 million usual residents) identified within the high-level ethnic group category “White” on Census day 2021. This compares with 95.6% in 2011. Age distributions vary a lot between different ethnic groups. Those who identify in the “White” high level ethnic group are generally older than other ethnic groups, which may explain some of the differences seen between ethnic groups.

The second largest high-level category identified with was “Asian, Asian Welsh or Asian British”, with 2.9% of the population. Followed by “Mixed or multiple ethnic groups” with 1.6% of the population, “Black, Black Welsh, Black British, Caribbean or African” with 0.9% of the population and “Other ethnic group” with 0.9% of the population.

The indicators show differences in education, employment, poverty and wellbeing across ethnic groups although there is limited evidence of differences in community cohesion.

GCSE results for 2022/23 show that 72.3% of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic pupils achieved A* to C grades compared to 65.5% of White British pupils, a gap of 6.8 percentage points. This gap has widened since 2018/19 when it was 3.3 percentage points. On average, children from ethnic groups other than White British achieved a higher percentage of results at A* to C than all pupils in 2022/23, apart from Caribbean, White and Black Caribbean, Gypsy, Traveller and Roma pupils.

Figure 4.3: Percentage of GCSE entries achieving A* to C by ethnic group, academic year 2022/23

Description of Figure 4.3: A bar chart showing the percentage of GCSE entries achieving A* to C by ethnic group in the 2022/23 academic year. Those who identify as Gypsy, Traveller, and Roma are the only ethnic groups below 35%, other ethnic groups range from 57% to 92%.

Source: Examination Results, Welsh Government

Working age adults from a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic background (excluding those from a Gypsy, Traveller or Roma background) were more likely to hold qualifications at levels 4 and above than White (including those from a Gypsy, Irish Traveller or Roma background) working age adults in 2023.

Employment rates (year ending March 2024) among the Welsh population aged 16 to 64 are higher among individuals from a White ethnic background (74.0%) than for individuals from a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic background (66.2%).

Figure 4.4: Employment rate (percentage of population aged 16 to 64) by ethnicity and year, 2011-12 to 2023-24 (rates for year ending March)

Description of Figure 4.4: A line chart showing employment rates for those aged between 16 and 64 by ethnicity between 2011-12 and 2023-24. The employment rate gap has generally decreased over time, although those from a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic background continue to have a lower employment rate than white individuals.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of the APS, ONS

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees earned, on average £1.93 (13.8%) less per hour than White employees in 2023. This compares to an ethnicity pay difference of £2.23 (or 16.8%) in 2022. However, there is particularly high volatility in the ethnicity pay difference data in Wales and therefore short-term changes should be considered alongside longer-term trends where possible. The ethnicity pay gap has generally widened since 2019 when it was £0.16 (or 1.4%), but in the years prior to that, the data showed volatility.

Being part of a Black, Asian or Minority Ethnic group is linked with a greater likelihood of relative income poverty. For the period 2018-19 to 2022-23 there was a 50% likelihood of people whose head of household identifies as Black, Asian or part of a Minority Ethnic group to be living in relative income poverty. This compares to a 22% likelihood for those whose head of household identifies as White.

Those who identify as Black, Asian, or part of a Minority Ethnic group had higher levels of self-reported loneliness in 2022-23 at 24% compared to 12% for those who identify as White.

Across various indicators related to community cohesion there was generally no significant difference between ethnic groups in the most recent National Survey data. This included satisfaction with the local area, agreeing with all three measures of community cohesion (belonging, people of different backgrounds get on, treated with respect), participating in arts or culture, and volunteering.

Religion

On Census day 2021, 1.4 million usual residents in Wales reported that they had no religion (46.5% of the population, up from 32.1% in 2011). For the first time, more people reported no religion than any single religious affiliation.

43.6% of usual residents described their religion as Christian in 2021. This religious affiliation had previously been selected by over half of residents in Wales (57.6%) in the 2011 Census.

The next largest religious affiliation in Wales was Muslim, with 2.2% of the population (67,000 usual residents) identifying as Muslim in 2021. This was an increase from 1.5% in 2011.

The indicators show differences in loneliness, sense of community and feelings of safety across religious groups.

Those who identified as Christian or with no religion had similar levels of self-reported loneliness in 2022-23 at 10% and 13% respectively. This compared to 29% for those who identified with another religious affiliation.

Christians are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion (belonging, people of different backgrounds get on, treated with respect) than those with no religion. The proportion agreeing with all three statements in 2021-22 was 69% for Christians and 61% for those with no religion.

In 2021-22, those with no religious affiliation were more likely to report feeling safe at home, in their local area and travelling (68%) compared to Christians (64%).

Sexual orientation

On Census day 2021, 2.3 million people (89.4% of the population aged 16 years and over) described themselves as Straight/Heterosexual. Whereas 38,000 (1.5%) described themselves as Gay or Lesbian and 32,000 (1.2%) described themselves as Bisexual. A further 7,000 (0.3%) indicated that they had a different sexual orientation and 194,000 (7.6%) did not answer the question.

There was a higher proportion of people who identified as Gay or Lesbian, Bisexual or a different sexual orientation (LGB+) in younger age groups, which may explain some of the differences seen between sexual orientations.
The available data show differences in education, Welsh language use, health, and wellbeing between sexual orientations.

In the 2021 Census, 8.4% of LGB+ people reported having no formal qualifications, compared to 19.5% of people who identified as Straight/Heterosexual. The percentage of people with no qualifications was lower for LGB+ people across all age groups.

Adults who identified as LGB+ in the 2021 Census were more likely to be Welsh speakers than those who identified as Straight/Heterosexual across all age groups, except for people aged 16 to 24 years old and 75 years and over.

Combining data from the National Survey for 2016-17 to 2019-20 showed adults identifying as bisexual were more likely to report having two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours compared with those in other sexual orientation groups. This analysis adjusted for the different age profiles of groups. Healthy lifestyle behaviours are: not currently smoking, drinking within weekly guidelines, eating five or more portions of fruit or vegetables the previous day, being active for 150 minutes or more the previous week, and being a healthy weight.

One third (33.8%) of people who identified as LGB+ in the 2021 Census reported being disabled (as defined by the Equality Act 2010), compared to a quarter (24.0%) of people who identified as Straight/Heterosexual.

The 2022-23 National Survey for Wales indicated that people who identify as Lesbian, Gay or Bisexual are about twice as likely to report feeling lonely than others.

Gender identity

A voluntary question on gender identity was asked for the first time in Census 2021. Respondents aged 16 and over were asked “Is the gender you identify with the same as your sex registered at birth?” and had the option of selecting either “Yes” or selecting “No” and writing in their gender identity. The ONS has said that the census estimates for gender identity are subject to a higher level of uncertainty than some other topics. There are some patterns in the data that are consistent with some respondents not interpreting the question as intended.

93.3% of respondents answered “Yes”, indicating that their gender identity was the same as their sex registered at birth. More than 10,000 people (0.4%) answered “No”, indicating that their gender identity was different from their sex registered at birth.

The percentage of people who reported that their gender identity was different from their sex registered at birth decreased with age. Most of the information on gender identity comes from the 2021 Census and shows differences in education, employment, and health.

In 2021, a quarter (24.6%) of people whose gender identity was different from their sex registered at birth reported having no formal qualifications, compared to a fifth (19.2%) of people whose gender identity was the same as their registered sex.

The 2021 Census also found that 51.4% of people aged 16 and over whose gender identity was different from their sex registered at birth reported being economically inactive, compared to 42.4% of people whose gender identity was the same as their sex registered at birth.

In 2021, people whose gender identity was different from their sex registered at birth were more likely to be disabled (38.9%) than those whose gender identity was the same as their sex registered at birth (24.4%). This is despite those whose gender identity was different from their sex registered at birth tending to be younger than average and younger people being less likely to be disabled. Trans women were the most likely to report being in bad or very bad general health (14.5%).

The School Health Research Network’s Student Health and Wellbeing survey collects data on mental wellbeing for 11 to 16 year olds. In 2021 those whose gender identity was different from the sex registered at birth reported lower life satisfaction and higher levels of loneliness than those with the same gender identity as their sex registered at birth.

Disability

In 2002 the Welsh Government adopted the social model of disability. Rather than defining people as disabled by their impairment (i.e. the medical model of disability), people with impairments or long-term health conditions are considered to be disabled by physical, attitudinal and organisational barriers created by society. Many of the data sources in this chapter use medical model definitions of disability in line with the Equality Act 2010 definition. In the Equality Act a “disability” means a physical or a mental condition which has a substantial and long-term impact on your ability to do normal day to day activities. However, we have used social model language in this section and chapter where possible.

The 2021 Census asked usual residents to report if they had a long-term physical or mental health condition or illness, lasting or expected to last 12 months or more. The question was worded slightly differently to 2011, to align more closely with the Equality Act (2010) definition of disability.

In 2021, the proportion of disabled people in Wales was 21.1% (670,000 people). This proportion has decreased (by 2.3 percentage points) from 2011, when it was 23.4% (696,000 people). The indicators show differences in education, employment, deprivation, wellbeing, and community cohesion between disabled and non-disabled individuals.

The educational outcomes of pupils with special educational needs or additional learning needs have fluctuated over the past 8 years but broadly mirror the pattern seen in all pupils. In 2022/23, 37.3% of GCSE entries by pupils in year 11 with a special educational need were awarded a grade at A* to C, up from 35.5% in 2018/19.

Of the working-age population in 2023, disabled people were more likely to have no qualifications (13.9%) than non-disabled people (5.6%) and were less likely to hold qualifications above level 2. Compared to 2022 the proportion of disabled adults of working age with no qualifications decreased by 2.4 percentage points.

For the year ending 31 March 2024, the employment rate among disabled people aged 16 to 64 in Wales was 51.0% whilst the rate for people who are not disabled was 81.9%. The employment rate gap for disabled people in 2023-24, of 30.9 percentage points, has reduced from 35.4 percentage points in 2015-16.

Figure 4.5: Employment rates (percentage of population aged 16 to 64) of disabled and non-disabled people by year, 2013-14 to 2023-24 (rates for year ending March)

Description of Figure 4.5: A line chart showing employment rates for disabled and non-disabled individuals aged between 16 and 64 between 2013-14 and 2023-24. The employment rate gap has generally decreased over time, although disabled people continue to have an employment rate that is 30.9 percentage points lower than non-disabled people in 2023-24.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of the APS, ONS

The pay difference between disabled and non-disabled people in Wales was £1.75 (12.2%) in 2023. This means that disabled people in Wales earned, on average, £1.75 less per hour than non-disabled people. This is an increase on the previous year when the pay gap was £1.32 (9.7%).

In the latest period (2020-21 to 2022-23), for working-age adults, 25% of individuals who lived in a family where someone was disabled were in relative income poverty compared with 18% of those in families where no-one was disabled. There was no difference in the percentage of children in relative income poverty by whether there was someone who was disabled in the household (29%).

In 2022-23, one in four disabled people or people with a limiting long-standing illness (25%) lived in a household in material deprivation compared with 11% of people who were not disabled.

Figure 4.6: Percentage of disabled and non-disabled people in material deprivation by year, 2016-17 to 2022-23 (year ending March) [Note 1]

[Note 1] The year 2020-21 has no data.

Description of Figure 4.6: A line chart showing the percentage of disabled and non-disabled individuals in material deprivation between 2016-17 and 2022-23. Material deprivation has been around 10 percentage points higher for disabled individuals over this time period with the general trend being similar for both groups.

Source: National Survey for Wales, Welsh Government

In 2022-23, disabled adults or those with a limiting long-standing illness had lower mental wellbeing and were more likely to report feeling lonely (22%) than those without such illnesses or impairments (7%).

In the latest period of available data from the National Survey for Wales (2021-22) disabled adults or those with a limiting long-standing illness were less likely to report having access to good services and facilities (80%) compared to those without such illness or disabilities (89%). In the same survey disabled adults were less likely to report feeling safe at home, in their local area and travelling (56%) than non-disabled people (70%).

Marital status

The proportion of adults in Wales who were married or in a registered civil partnership in 2021 was 43.8%, while 37.2% had never married or registered a civil partnership. The indicators show differences in deprivation and wellbeing across different marital statuses.

In 2022-23, 22% of divorced adults and 36% of adults who are separated (but still legally married) were in material deprivation compared with 10% of adults who were married and 10% who were widowed.

In 2022-23, married people had better mental wellbeing than those who were single. Married people had an average mental wellbeing score of 49.6, compared with 46.8 for single people.

In 2022-23, people who were married were least likely to report being lonely (8%), while people who were separated but legally married were the most likely (21%). People who were single, divorced, or widowed were also more likely to report loneliness than people who were married (17%, 17% and 14% respectively).

Data sources

National Survey for Wales

Gender Pay Gap (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings)

Ethnicity and Disability Pay Gap (APS)

Labour market statistics (APS)

Economic activity by ethnicity (StatsWales)

Economic activity by disability (StatsWales)

People in employment paid at least the Real Living Wage (StatsWales)

Poverty and deprivation (National Survey for Wales): April 2022 to March 2023

Relative income poverty

Examination results

Level of highest qualification held by working age adults

Participation of young people in education and the labour market

Ethnic group, national identity, language and religion in Wales (Census 2021)

Disabled people’s outcomes in health, housing, education, and economic status (Census 2021)

Health, disability and provision of unpaid care in Wales (Census 2021)

Sexual orientation and gender identity differences in health, education and economic status (Census 2021)

Sexual orientation and gender identity in Wales (Census 2021) (revised)

Welsh language by sexual orientation and gender identity (Census 2021)

Population estimates for Wales

Life expectancy (ONS)

Suicides in England and Wales (ONS)

Loneliness (National Survey for Wales): April 2022 to March 2023

Mental well-being (National Survey for Wales): April 2022 to March 2023

Wellbeing measures by Gender Identity (School Health Research Network)

Usual resident population in Wales by legal partnership status (Census 2021) (StatsWales)

A Wales of cohesive communities

The goal for a Wales of cohesive communities

Author: Ian Jones

A Wales of cohesive communities: attractive, viable, safe and well-connected communities.

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

Indicators from the National Survey for Wales relating to cohesive communities have not been updated this year. For these indicators, additional analysis has been carried out to identify differences by different population groups. New data is available, however, for homelessness, and crime and justice.

People who live in less deprived areas are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion. They are also more likely to feel safe after dark and be satisfied with their local area than people living in more deprived areas.

The indicators present a mixed picture according to someone’s age. Older people are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion, and are generally more likely to volunteer. However, older people are less likely to feel safe after dark, and less likely to be satisfied with access to good services and facilities.

A substantially higher proportion of men than women feel safe after dark. A greater proportion of men than women volunteer.

Disabled people or people with a limiting long-term illness are less likely to feel safe after dark and less likely to be satisfied with access to good services and facilities.

One indicator that presents a slightly different picture is being able to influence local decisions. Younger people and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people are more likely to feel that they can influence local decisions. There are no significant differences by area deprivation, sex or whether someone is a disabled person / has a limiting long-term illness.

The percentage of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness has fallen, whilst the number of individuals in temporary accommodation has increased, and, despite falling in the past year, the estimated number of individuals sleeping rough as at June 2024 is over 30% higher compared to 2022 estimates.

Around 7% of adults in Wales were victims of crime (excluding fraud) in 2023-24. Police recorded crime in Wales (excluding fraud) decreased by 4% in 2023-24 compared with the previous year, as did violence against the person.

The total number of police recorded hate crimes in Wales decreased by 4% in 2022/23. However, hate crimes where religion or transgender status was a motivating factor increased by 26% and 22% respectively.

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

Some of the indicators for cohesive communities are relatively recent measures collected in the National Survey for Wales. It is therefore difficult to comment confidently on changes over time. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic during this period, as well as changes in the way National Survey for Wales data is collected, also affect comparability with earlier data. However, a number of measures related to community cohesion and engagement appear to have exhibited positive change over recent years.

Community cohesion indicators had been broadly stable since 2016-17 until a sizeable increase in 2020-21. The same year also saw a positive step change in people feeling they can influence local decisions, although the overall figure remains low. Whether these increases will be sustained will not become clear until data is available for future years.

There have been slight improvements over the long term in people’s satisfaction with their local area. People feeling safe after dark has remained relatively constant since first asked in 2016-17 and stood at 66% in 2021-22.

The percentage of people volunteering had been falling but is another indicator that has seen a recent increase. The national milestone to have 30% of people volunteering was reached in 2022-23.

Loneliness, based on a composite of six separate measures, has remained the same over recent years. Within the overall measure, the percentage that ‘miss having people around’ has followed a different pattern with a substantially increased percentage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 and 2021-22 before falling to previous levels in 2022-23.

Since legislation changed in 2015, 2023-24 was the second time that the rate for prevention of homelessness for at least 6 months dropped below 60% (along with 2022-23). Prior to this, homelessness had been successfully prevented in around two-thirds of cases since 2017-18.

Around half of people in Wales think crime has risen a lot nationally in recent years. This figure has returned to pre-pandemic levels after a drop in 2022-23. However, since 2015-16, there have been general downward trends in the proportion of adults who were victims of crime (excluding fraud), and victims of personal crime.

Community cohesion

Nearly two-thirds of adults (64%) agreed with all three measures of community cohesion (belonging to the local area, people from different backgrounds getting on well together, and treating each other with respect and consideration) in 2021-22 when data on this indicator was last collected by the National Survey for Wales. This is an increase on pre-pandemic years and a slight drop since 2020-21. 95% of adults agreed with at least one statement relating to community cohesion in 2021-22.

These figures have been broadly stable since they were first collected in 2012 until the sizeable increase in 2020-21. Whether the increases in 2020-21 and 2021-22 are a short-term effect of the pandemic (with communities coming together locally) and whether they will be sustained or partly sustained over the longer term will not become clear until data is available for future years.

There is a clear trend towards increased community cohesion as deprivation in the area falls. Around half of people living in the most deprived areas agreed with all three statements, compared with around seven out of ten in the least deprived areas.

Older people are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion. The proportion agreeing with all three statements in 2021-22 ranged from 57% of 16-24 year olds to 77% of those aged 75 and above.

There is no statistically significant difference between men and women, or by ethnicity, agreeing with all three statements.

Figure 5.1: Percentage of people agreeing with statements about their local area, by year [Note 1]

Description of Figure 5.1: Line chart showing percentage of people who agree with three statements about community cohesion in their local area from 2012-13 until 2021-22. In 2021-22, 84% agreed people in the area from different backgrounds get on well together; 82% agree people treat each other with respect and consideration; and 79% agreed they belong to the local area.

Source: National Survey for Wales: Welsh Government

[Note 1] The years 2015-16, 2017-18 and 2019-20 have no data associated with them.

Feeling safe after dark

Two-thirds of adults feel safe in various situations after dark.

The national indicator is the percentage of people that agreed with four statements about feeling safe after dark at home, walking in their local area, travelling by public transport or travelling by car. In 2021-22, 66% of people felt safe in all four situations. These results have remained relatively constant across the years since first asked in 2016-17.

There is a clear trend towards an increased feeling of safety as deprivation in the area falls, with 72% of people who live in the least deprived areas feeling safe in all situations compared with 54% of people who live in the most deprived areas.

There is also a clear difference by sex, with men feeling safer (81%) than women (51%).

Disabled people or people with a limiting long-term illness, plus people aged 65 years or older, were also less likely to feel safe after dark.

Figure 5.2: Percentage of people agreeing with statements about feeling safe after dark, 2021-22 [Note 1]

Description of Figure 5.2: A bar chart showing the percentage of people agreeing with statements about feeling safe after dark in 2021-22. 96% felt safe at home, 97% felt safe travelling by car, 75% felt safe walking in the local area and 76% felt safe travelling by public transport.

Source: National Survey for Wales

[Note 1] 27% of people who were asked said 'Don't know' to the question about public transport and were excluded from the analysis. As a result, the proportion of people feeling safe in all 4 situations is lower than the individual results would suggest.

Satisfaction with local area

In 2021-22, 89% of people said they are satisfied with their local area as a place to live, slightly higher than the results in previous years.

People living in the least deprived 20% areas of Wales were more likely to be satisfied with their local area than people living in the 40% most deprived areas.

There were no links found between satisfaction with local area and sex, ethnicity, age, or being a disabled person / having a limiting long-term illness.

Access to good services and facilities

In 2021-22, 86% of people were satisfied that they were able to get to or access the services and facilities they need within a 15 to 20 minute walk from their home, slightly down on 2020-21 but an increase since 2018 19 (81%). The latest decrease was not statistically significant.

This varied by the type of area with a significantly lower percentage of people from rural areas having access to good services and facilities compared to those from urban areas (83% vs 87%). Unsurprisingly, occupants of hamlets and isolated buildings were the least satisfied with their access to good services and facilities, with only 77% showing as satisfied on this indicator.

There is a clear trend by age, with younger people more likely to be satisfied with their access to good services and facilities than older people.

There is also a significant difference according to being a disabled person / having a limiting long-term illness (80% satisfied) or not (89% satisfied).

Figure 5.3: Access to good services and facilities by area, 2021-22

Description of Figure 5.3: Bar chart showing percentage of people who are satisfied with their access to good services and facilities. 87% of people in urban areas are satisfied compared with 77% of people who live in hamlets and isolated dwellings.

Source: National Survey for Wales

Fewer than 60% of people (in 2022-23) said that municipal services such as community centres, secondary schools, libraries and youth or sports clubs were available in their local area. In contrast, over 80% said public transport links, shops and pubs were all within a 15 to 20 minute walk from their home. Furthermore, for each of the aforementioned municipal services there has also been a fall in the percentage of people saying they were available in their local area since 2018-19 as has been the case for health centre / GP surgery, chemist, post office and cash machine services.

Influencing local decisions

For the most recent year for which data is available (2021-22), the proportion of people who feel they can influence local decisions has increased, although the overall figure remains low.

In 2021-22, 30% of people felt that they could influence decisions affecting their local area compared with 26% in 2020-21 and 19% in 2018-19. This is a marked increase since before 2020. It may reflect real change as a result of the pandemic but requires monitoring in future survey years.

People aged between 16 and 24 years are more likely to feel that they can influence decisions affecting their local area than any other age group.

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people were also more likely to feel able to influence decisions in their local area.

Controlling for other factors, there were no significant differences found for sex, whether someone is a disabled person / has a limiting long-term illness, or for area deprivation.

Figure 5.4: Percentage of people who feel they can influence decisions affecting local area, 2012-13 to 2021-22

Description of Figure 5.4: Line chart showing the percentage of people who feel they can influence decisions affecting their local area. In 2021-22, 30% reported they felt they could influence decisions, this compares with 19% in 2018-19. The 2021-22 result is higher than in all years since first asked in 2012-13.

Source: National Survey for Wales

Volunteering

Results from online data collected as part of the National Survey for Wales 2022-23 showed that 30% of people said they volunteered for clubs or organisations. This compares with 26% in 2019-20 (when the survey took place face-to-face) and 29% in 2021-22 (when the volunteering questions were asked as part of the online module for the first time). In all years people most commonly volunteered for charities and sports clubs.

In 2022-23, a greater proportion of men (32%) than women (27%) volunteered, as did a greater proportion of non-disabled people and people without a limiting long term illness (31%) compared with disabled people and people with a limiting long-term illness (26%).

Volunteering tends to increase with age, peaking among 65-74 year olds (35%) before falling slightly among those aged 75 years and above (32%). Those aged 16 to 24 years are the least likely to volunteer (24%).

There are no statistically significant differences by ethnicity.

Figure 5.5: Percentage of people volunteering by type of organisation, 2022-23

Description of Figure 5.5: Bar chart showing the percentage of people volunteering, by type of organisation, in 2022-23. People are most likely to volunteer for charitable organisations (10%), or sports clubs (8%).

Source: National Survey for Wales

The national milestone for the volunteering indicator is to “increase the percentage of people who volunteer by 10% by 2050, demonstrating Wales’s status as a volunteering nation”. This means reaching a figure of 30% by 2050. This milestone was met in 2022-23 but, with the uncertainty around how sustainable the increases seen during the COVID-19 pandemic will be, it is not yet clear if this level will be maintained.

Loneliness

The National Survey for Wales collects data using the De Jong Gierveld loneliness scale which covers six measures of emotional and social loneliness.

In 2022-23, based on all six measures, 13% of people in Wales were found to be lonely, the same as in the past 2 years (2021-22 and 2020-21) and lower than in 2019-20. However, there are some marked variations in the percentage of people who say they feel lonely across the individual measures:

in 2019-20, 36% of people said they missed having people around; this increased substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic (71% in 2020-21 and 53% in 2021-22), before falling back again to 36% in 2022-23
the percentage of people who report that they have people they can trust completely increased from 59% in 2019-20 to 67% in 2020-21; this was maintained in 2021-22 and 2022-23
from 2019-20 to 2021 22 there were increases in the percentage of people who said they had enough people they felt close to, and enough people they could rely on; the figures for 2022-23 were slightly lower but not a statistically significant change from 2020-21

The most recent results (2022-23) from the National Survey for Wales suggest that younger adults (aged 16 to 44) are more likely to feel lonely than those aged 65 and above.

People living in material deprivation, and individuals with a mental health condition or in poorer general health, are more likely to be lonely.

There are also differences by ethnicity, with Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people being more likely to be lonely.

A Wales Centre for Public Policy review into loneliness inequalities review found that:

Migrants, members of ethnic and racially minoritised groups, sexual minorities, transgender and gender non-conforming individuals, disabled people, those in poor physical or mental health, carers, individuals with low socio-economic status, and unemployed people, all disproportionately experience loneliness.

Source: Barreto et al 2023: 4

The impact of these inequalities can be exacerbated where they intersect.

Figure 5.6: Percentage of people feeling lonely by reason and year

Description of Figure 5.6: Bar chart showing the results for 2019-20 to 2022-23 and the six questions asked to create the measure of loneliness. Overall, the responses to the statements show that people are less lonely in 2022-23 compared with 2019-20.

Source: National Survey for Wales

Digital exclusion

A new national indicator was set in 2021 which will measure the status of digital inclusion. A new set of questions that align with the principles of a minimum digital living standard are undergoing cognitive testing for inclusion in future waves of the National Survey for Wales. The questions have been informed by research commissioned by the Welsh Government and undertaken by the University of Liverpool. Once finalised, the questions will provide data to measure digital exclusion across Wales and inform the national indicator.

In the meantime, results from the National Survey for Wales in 2022-23 show that 93% of adults personally use the internet at home, work or elsewhere, which remains unchanged from 2021-22 and 2020-21.

The National Survey for Wales data also shows that while almost all people aged 16 to 64 years use the internet, this decreases to 89% of 65 to 74 years olds and 68% of those aged 75 years and above.

The survey also asks questions about digital activity and the skills people have. These are grouped into 5 types of skill:

handling information and content
communicating
transacting
problem solving
being safe and legal online

The latest data is from 2021-22, where 78% of internet users had performed activities that related to all 5 of these skills in the past 3 months compared with 73% in 2019-20.

Homelessness

In the past year the percentage of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness has fallen, whilst the number of individuals in temporary accommodation has increased, and the estimated number of individuals sleeping rough is over 30% higher in June 2024 compared to June 2022.

Prevention of homelessness

Among households in Wales threatened with homelessness between April 2023 and March 2024, homelessness was successfully prevented for at least 6 months in 58% of cases. This is similar to the proportion of 59% for the period April 2022 to March 2023.

Since legislation changed in 2015, 2023-24 was the second time that the rate for prevention for at least 6 months dropped below 60% (along with 2022-23). Prior to this, homelessness had been successfully prevented in around two-thirds of cases since 2017-18.

Relief from homelessness

The proportion of households successfully relieved from homelessness remained relatively stable from 2016-17 to 2019-20. However, it has been decreasing since then, from 41% in 2019-20 to 26% in 2023-24.

Figure 5.7: Percentage of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness, 2015-16 to 2023-24

Description of Figure 5.7: Line chart showing the percentages of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness in Wales between 2015-16 and 2023-24. The chart shows the percentages of households successfully prevented from homelessness in Wales remained relatively constant between 2015-16 and 2021-22 before falling in 2022-23 and remaining at a similar level for 2023-24. Similarly, the percentages of households successfully relieved from homelessness in Wales was also stable between 2016-17 and 2020-21 after which there was a drop in 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Temporary accommodation

Monthly information shows as of 30 June 2024, 11,301 individuals were in temporary accommodation, a 4% increase on the previous year, thereby continuing the increases observed in the number of individuals in temporary accommodation over the past few years. Around a quarter of these (2,881) were dependent children aged under 16, a decrease of 14% from the previous year.

The most common type of temporary accommodation was bed and breakfast and hotels, housing 3,670 individuals.

Rough sleeping

As of 30 June 2024, there were an estimated 153 individuals sleeping rough throughout Wales. This is 12% less than the estimated 173 individuals sleeping rough at the same period the previous year but over 30% higher than the estimated 117 individuals sleeping rough as at 30 June 2022.

Cardiff, Ceredigion and Newport were the local authorities with the highest estimates of rough sleepers as of 30 June 2024.

Crime and justice

A new national indicator was set in 2021 which will measure the percentage of people who have confidence in the justice system. Data is not yet collected for this indicator but is in development.

In the last year police recorded crime in Wales has decreased whilst the proportion of adults who are victims of crime has remained relatively stable.

Victims of crime and perceptions of crime

In 2023-24, 6.9% of adults in Wales were victims of crime (similar to the 6.6% the previous year) and 1.9% were victims of personal crime (down from 2.5% the previous year). There has been a general downward trend in the available time series from 2015-16 when the percentages were 14.7% and 4.4%.

Latest data on perceptions of crime in 2023-24 shows around half of people in Wales (49%) believe crime has risen a lot nationally in recent years. While this has increased from 41% in 2022-23, it remains lower than the pre-pandemic levels of 53% in 2018-19 and 2019-20 (there is no available data for 2020-21 or 2021-22).

The percentage of those believing crime in their local area has risen a lot is much smaller (17%). This figure has returned to pre-pandemic levels after dropping to 11% in 2022-23.

Police recorded crime

Police recorded crime in Wales (excluding fraud) decreased by 4% in 2023-24 compared with the previous year. Violence against the person also decreased by 4%, although the rate per 1,000 of the population remains considerably higher than a decade ago (Figure 5.8).

There were increases in 3 of the 9 main offence categories in 2023-24 compared with the previous year, including possession of weapons offences (increased by 11%) and theft offences (increased by 8%). The increase in theft offences was, in part, driven by a 34% increase in shoplifting.

Among the other main offence categories, there were notable decreases in public order offences (19% decrease) and drug offences (15% decrease). There were also decreases in criminal damage and arson (8% decrease), robbery (7% decrease) and sexual offences (5% decrease).

Reported fraud and computer misuse offences increased by 5% in Wales between 2022-23 and 2023-24 although the rate remained the same at 5 offences per 1,000 population in Wales.

Figure 5.8: Police recorded crime per 1,000 population, 2002-03 to 2023-24

Description of Figure 5.8: Line chart showing the rates of police recorded crime per 1,000 population in Wales between 2002-03 and 2023-24. The chart shows theft offences have seen the biggest change in rates, falling from more than 50 per 1,000 population in 2002-03 to around 20 per 1,000 population in recent years. Rates of violence against the person offences had been increasing since 2013-14 and since 2018-19 have the highest rate of those shown, although it decreased in 2023-24. Criminal damage and arson saw a fall in rates until 2016-17 but since this time have been stable. Public order offences had the lowest rate per 1,000 population until 2021-22 when the rate rose above that of criminal damage and arson.

Source: Police Recorded Crime, Office for National Statistics

Hate crime

There was a 4% decrease in recorded hate crimes across Wales in 2022-23 compared with 2021-22. There were 6,041 recorded hate crimes across the four Welsh police force areas, of which:

62% were race hate crimes
20% were sexual orientation hate crimes
5% were religion hate crimes
14% were disability hate crimes
5% were transgender hate crimes

Compared with 2021-22, there were increases in the number of hate crimes with religion or transgender status as recorded motivating factors, while there were decreases in hate crimes with disability, race and sexual orientation as recorded motivating factors:

8% decrease in sexual orientation hate crimes
4% decrease in race hate crimes
2% decrease in disability hate crimes
22% increase in transgender hate crimes
26% increase in religion hate crimes

Whilst providing a good measure of the hate crime-related demand on the police, due to police forces making significant improvements in how they record crime since 2014, as well as improvements in identifying what constitutes a hate crime, police recorded crime figures do not currently provide reliable trends in hate crime. Figures from the police should also not be seen as a measure of prevalence of hate crime.

Data sources

The following data sources were used in this narrative:

Homelessness

Homelessness statistics

Homelessness accommodation provision and rough sleeping monthly management information

Crime

Crime Survey for England and Wales perception data (Office for National Statistics (ONS))

Personal crime incidence open data tables (ONS)

Police recorded crime open data tables (Home Office)

Police recorded crime 2023-24 (ONS)

Other data

National Survey for Wales

A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language

Author: Stephanie Howarth

A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language: A society that promotes and protects culture, heritage and the Welsh language, and which encourages people to participate in the arts, sports and recreation.

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

Many of the indicators for this goal are not updated annually. As there is no new National Survey for Wales data this year, this means there is no new insight available on national indicators related to arts for adults or for sports in 2024.

The first post-pandemic data on children’s attendance and participation in the arts shows that both have fallen since 2019. In 2023, 82% of children aged 7 to 18 attended an arts event in the last year and 84% participated in the arts.

Data on the national indicators related to the number of Welsh speakers and Welsh language use is not updated this year. However, new analysis on Welsh language use shows that over half of Welsh speakers aged 16+ speak Welsh with their colleagues at least some of the time, and just under 1 in 5 always speak Welsh with colleagues.

The conditions of 76% of listed buildings were assessed as “stable or improving” this year, compared to 58% for scheduled monuments. For both types of historic assets, these rates are very slightly lower than the previous year.

One fewer museum met accreditation standards this year, bringing the percentage of museums which meet the standards to 61%. While the number of archive services meeting accreditation standards was unchanged at 14, the percentage fell slightly from 93% to 82%.

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

There have been notable long term increases in a range of areas under this goal such as children’s participation and attendance in arts, regular participation in sport by adults, and museums and archives achieving accreditation. However, a small number of national indicators have shown a marked decline over the long term, most notably the number of Welsh speakers. The pandemic period may have contributed here, including on children’s sport participation. Wide disparities remain across many indicators for this goal.

The national indicator on arts, culture and heritage has been collected three times, starting in 2017-18. The percentage of adults regularly attending and participating in arts, culture and heritage is not significantly different this year from when it was previously measured in 2019-20 and 2017-18. There continue to be wide differences depending on age, health, deprivation and qualifications, but not for sex or ethnic groups.

Looking back over the last decade, there were initially increases in both attendance and participation in the arts by children. But both are now falling and are either at or lower than the level seen 10 years ago.

More museums and archive services are meeting accredited standards. Between 2017 and 2023, there have been larger increases in the percentage of archive services meeting accredited standards (from 57% to 82%) than museums (from 59% to 61%).

Since 2016-17, there has been a relatively large increase in regular participation in sport by adults, despite a plateau between 2017-18 and 2019-20. Sports participation amongst school pupils had increased but has now fallen back to similar levels seen in 2013.

The number and percentage of people able to speak Welsh fell according to Census 2021, with the percentage now the lowest ever recorded in a census. There is a national milestone for one million Welsh speakers by 2050. According to the census, 538,000 people were able to speak Welsh in 2021, down from close to one million in 1911.

Survey data suggests an increase in non-fluent Welsh speakers over the long term. The percentage of Welsh speakers that use the language every day has been fairly stable.

Conditions of listed buildings in Wales have improved slightly since 2015, while the conditions of scheduled monuments have declined.

Arts, culture and heritage

There is no new data this year from the National Survey for Wales, which means that the latest data available for the national indicator on arts, culture and heritage is from 2022-23.

Attendance and participation in arts, culture and heritage has been relatively stable over recent years. In 2022-23, 72% of adults attended or took part in arts, culture or heritage activities at least three times a year. This compares to 71% in 2019-20 and 75% in 2017-18. Whilst there was a fall in attendance and participation from 2017-18 to 2019-20, this change was not statistically significant.

There continue to be large differences in attendance and participation between groups. Younger adults, people with higher qualifications, people with higher life satisfaction or people living in the least deprived areas of Wales were more likely to attend or participate in these activities.

Figure 6.1: Adults attending or participating in arts, culture and heritage three or more times a year, 2017-18 to 2022-23

Description of Figure 6.1: A bar chart showing three years of data for the national indicator on regularly attending or participating in arts, culture and heritage. There are no significant differences between 2022-23 and the previous years this indicator was measured.

Source: National Survey for Wales

Looking at the arts specifically, the period of the pandemic appears to have negatively affected arts attendance. In 2022-23, 64% of people attended an arts event over the last year, down from 70% prior to the pandemic. Arts participation continues to be much lower than arts attendance, with 18% of adults participating in the arts in 2022-23. Unlike arts attendance, the pandemic does not appear to have considerably affected arts participation, with a broadly similar share of people taking part in the arts in 2022-23 compared to 2019-20.

Children and the arts

Children’s attendance and participation in the arts have both fallen since the pandemic. In 2023, 82% of children aged 7 to 18 attended an arts event in the last year and 84% participated in the arts. Despite overall falls, there were large increases in children’s attendance and participation in some art forms, including attending musicals and participating in dance.

Looking back over the last decade, there were initially increases in both attendance and participation. But arts participation in children has been gradually falling since 2015 and is now back to similar levels seen a decade ago. The falls in attendance have been more recent, down from a peak of 89% in 2019 and now below the level seen in 2013.

Attendance and participation in arts continues to be higher among girls, younger children (7 to 10 year olds) and children from higher social grades.

Figure 6.2: Children attending or participating in the arts at least once a year, 2013 to 2023

Description of Figure 6.2: A line chart showing 10 years of data on children’s attendance and participation in the arts. Both attendance and participation have been falling in recent years.

Source: Arts Council of Wales

Museums and archives

Data from the National Survey for Wales in 2022-23 showed that 31% of people visited a museum in the last year, a number which has fallen since pre-pandemic times.

The latest data shows that 98 museums met the accreditation standard in 2024. The number and share of museums that are accredited has only changed slightly over recent years. 61% of museums are now accredited, compared to 59% in 2017 to 2019. The accreditation scheme was paused in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic so figures are not available for this period.

14 archive services met the accreditation standard in 2024, equivalent to 82% of all eligible archive services. The share of archive services that are accredited has increased from 57% in 2017.

Sport participation

More adults are taking part in sport regularly. The latest results from the National Survey for Wales show that 39% of adults took part in sport three or more times a week in 2022-23, the highest rate recorded by the survey. This is an increase of around 10 percentage points since 2016-17 when the information was first collected.

Regular sports participation decreases with age. 57% of 16 to 24 year olds are estimated to take part in regular sport, declining to 13% of 75+ year olds.

There are also higher levels of regular sport participation among:

men
Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people
people who do not have a long-term illness or condition
people who speak Welsh
people who are not in material deprivation

The percentage of people who take part in no sport or physical activity fell from 44% in 2021-22 to 40% in 2022-23. 2021-22 aside, the rate of people who take part in no sport has been broadly unchanged since the data was first collected in 2016-17.

Overall, 27% of adults would like to do more sport or physical activity. This has fallen substantially from previous surveys where almost 60% said they would like to do more.

Figure 6.3: Percentage of adults participating in sport three or more times a week, 2016-17 to 2022-23

Description of Figure 6.3: Line chart showing the percentage of adults taking part in sport three or more times a week, which has increased over the long term.

Source: National Survey for Wales

Children’s participation in sport

There was a large decrease in children’s participation in sport in 2022, when the School Sport Survey was last run.

39% of pupils took part in organised sport outside of the curriculum three or more times a week. This was a 9 percentage point decrease from 2018 when the School Sport Survey was last carried out and is the lowest figure ever recorded by the survey (just surpassing the 40% reported in 2013). There was also a large increase in the percentage who reported no frequent participation in sport outside of school. This stood at 36% in 2022, up from 28% in the previous survey. Despite decreases in participation, the vast majority of pupils (93%) wanted to do more sport.

Boys continued to be more likely to take part in sport. Primary school aged children were slightly less likely to take part in sport regularly than secondary school aged children.

When looking at broad ethnic groups, pupils from Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups had the highest rates of sports participation, with 43% taking part in sport three or more times a week.

Figure 6.4: Percentage of children participating in sport three or more times a week, 2013 to 2022

Description of Figure 6.4: A line chart showing the percentage of children regularly participating in sport. Participation has fallen recently back to a similar level seen in 2013.

Source: School Sport Survey

Welsh speakers

We consider the census to be the main source of information on the number of people who can speak Welsh in Wales. According to Census 2021, 17.8% of people aged three years or older in Wales can speak Welsh. This is down from 19.0% in 2011 and is the lowest percentage ever recorded on a census.

The national milestone on Welsh language is for one million Welsh speakers by 2050. Over the long term, the number of Welsh speakers has been falling from almost one million people in 1911 to 538,000 now. Although the most recent figures showed a fall in the number of Welsh speakers, the number remains above the lowest point in 1981, when under 504,000 people spoke Welsh.

The decrease in both the number and percentage of people aged three years or older able to speak Welsh in 2021 was mainly driven by a fall among children and young people who were reported as being able to speak Welsh. Census 2021 was held during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on 21 March 2021. This followed periods of lockdown, remote learning for children and many people were working from home. It is not known if the pandemic impacted people’s reported Welsh language ability (or perception of the Welsh language ability of others).

Between 2011 and 2021, the percentage of people able to speak Welsh fell in both the White and the Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups. In contrast, there were increases in the percentage of people able to speak Welsh in the Asian, Asian Welsh or Asian British ethnic group; in the Black, Black Welsh, Black British, Caribbean or African ethnic group; and in the “Other” ethnic group.

Figure 6.5: People aged three years and older able to speak Welsh, 1911 to 2021 [Note 1]

Description of Figure 6.5: A line chart showing the number of people able to speak Welsh since 1911. Numbers fell substantially in the first half of the 20th century, with smaller changes since.

[Note 1] There was no census in 1941.

Source: Census of Population

A higher percentage of females are able to speak Welsh than males, with the gap being widest for 16- to 18-year-olds. The census shows that the age profile of Welsh speakers is younger than that of the general population.

Census 2021 data shows almost one in ten households comprised people who were all able to speak Welsh.

The transmission rate refers to the percentage of three to four year olds able to speak Welsh where one or more adults in their household speaks Welsh. According to the 2021 Census, transmission rates were highest in couple households where two or more adults spoke Welsh (80.7%), followed by lone parent households where one adult could speak Welsh (52.1%). Couple households where one adult spoke Welsh had the lowest transmission rates, at 40.4%. Transmission rates in couple households were higher where the partner that spoke Welsh was female.

Welsh language use

The latest Welsh language use survey shows there has been little change in how often people speak Welsh.

In 2019-20, 10% of people aged three or older spoke Welsh daily and could speak more than just a few words of Welsh. This is the same percentage as in the previous Welsh Language Use Survey in 2013-15. More recent data from the National Survey for Wales for people aged 16 or older also suggests there has been little overall change in the rate of people using Welsh daily. Fluent Welsh speakers speak the language more often than those who are not fluent.

Recent analysis of the Welsh Language Use Survey 2019-20 has investigated Welsh language use in the workplace and with service providers.

Over half of Welsh speakers aged 16 years or older in work reported speaking Welsh with their colleagues at least some of the time. Just under 1 in 5 always speak Welsh with colleagues.

Over half (53%) of Welsh speakers reported that they had received customer service in Welsh the last time they contacted the local authority, and over a third the last time they contacted the GP surgery or hospital. Older Welsh speakers, more fluent Welsh speakers, and Welsh speakers who had started learning to speak Welsh at home as young children were most likely to report that they had received customer service in Welsh the last time they contacted these services.

Fluency in Welsh

Surveys provide information on Welsh language fluency which is not available from the census. Survey data are not comparable with the census as people are usually more likely to report they are able to speak Welsh in surveys. In contrast to the results from Census 2021, surveys have shown increases in the number of Welsh speakers. These differences are being investigated; an article looking at the differences between estimates of Welsh language ability in the Census and the Labour Force Survey was published in October 2023.

According to the National Survey for Wales, the share of Welsh speakers aged 16 years or older who are fluent has remained relatively unchanged over the last 10 years. However, over the long term, there have been increases in Welsh speakers who are not fluent.

The percentage of people who are fluent in Welsh has remained at around 10% or 11% since 2012-13, according to the National Survey for Wales.

23% of people reported they could speak some Welsh, but not fluently in the 2022-23 National Survey. This has increased by around 10 percentage points over the previous decade.

Historic buildings and monuments

Each year Cadw assesses the conditions of a sample of listed buildings and scheduled monuments in Wales. Listed buildings are places of special or architectural interest in Wales, while scheduled monuments represent archaeological sites of national importance. Conditions of listed buildings in Wales have generally improved slightly since 2015, while the conditions of scheduled monuments have been gradually worsening.

There are currently just over 30,000 listed buildings in Wales. Of these, 76% are in a stable or improving condition in 2024, up slightly from 74% in 2015. 9% of listed buildings are considered to be at risk.

The state of conservation of a sample of scheduled monuments is assessed each year as part of a ten-year rolling assessment programme. This shows that the conditions of the 4,200 monuments in Wales appears to be declining over recent years. In 2016-17, 66% of monuments were in a stable or improving condition, falling to 58% in 2023-24.

41% of scheduled monuments are demonstrating deterioration, of which 14% are considered to be at risk. The main impacts are damage and decay due to effects of weathering, vegetation encroachment and stock erosion.

Figure 6.6: Percentage of scheduled monuments that are in a stable or improving condition, 2011-12 to 2023-24

Description of Figure 6.6: A line chart showing the share of monuments that are in a stable or improving condition. The percentage has gradually fallen over the last ten years.

Source: Cadw

Data sources

Arts attendance and participation

National Survey for Wales

Arts Council of Wales Children’s Omnibus Survey 2023

Sports participation

National Survey for Wales

School Sport Survey 2022 (Sport Wales)

Welsh language

Census 2021

National Survey for Wales

Annual Population Survey

Welsh Language Use Survey

Historic buildings and monuments

Cadw

Museums and archives

CyMAL: Museums, Archives and Libraries Wales

National Survey for Wales

A globally responsible Wales

Author: Stephanie Taylor

A globally responsible Wales: A nation which, when doing anything to improve the economic, social, environmental and cultural wellbeing of Wales, takes account of whether doing such a thing may make a positive contribution to global wellbeing. This goal recognises that in an inter-connected world what we do to make Wales a sustainable nation can have positive and adverse impacts outside of Wales.

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

In 2022, it was estimated that greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere directly from within Wales totalled 35.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), a 0.1% decrease since 2021.

In 2023, there were 559 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery received by police forces in Wales. This is a 4% increase compared to 2022 (536 referrals).

The Forced Marriage Unit gave advice or support in less than 5 cases related to a possible forced marriage and/or possible female genital mutilation in 2023.

In 2023/24, there were 21,493 entrants for the Global Citizenship Challenge at key stage 4, and 4,523 at advanced level who chose the global citizenship challenge component. There were 5,048 entries for the new advanced global community project.

The proportion of children who were up to date with their routine immunisations by four years of age was 84.3% for the year ending March 2024. This is a slight decrease compared to 84.5% for the year ending March 2023.

In 2023-24 uptake of the 6 in 1 vaccine (DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB) in one year old children in Wales was 94.2%, a slight decrease from 94.5% the previous year.

In 2023-24 MMR uptake of one dose by two years of age remained the same as in the previous year, with a 92.9% uptake. This is below the target uptake rate of 95%.

At the end of March 2024, more than 2,800 asylum seekers were receiving support in Wales. The numbers receiving support have continued to increase since 2022. This was an increase of 15% in 2024, since the same quarter in 2023.

As at the end of March 2024, a total of 1,488 refugees have been resettled in Wales under the Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme (2016 to 2022) and UK Resettlement Scheme (2021 onwards).

In 2022/23, there were 28,710 enrolments from international students for higher educations providers in Wales. This comprises of 19% of enrolments where the student’s domicile is known.

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

Data for some of the national indicators suggest that progress is being made towards the globally responsible Wales goal. These include long-term improvements to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and other national indicators which overlap with the resilient Wales goal. There is a national milestone for greenhouse gases which is for Wales to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In 2022, it was estimated that greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere directly from within Wales totalled 35.7million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), a decrease of 36% from 1990. Consumption emissions associated with goods and services consumed by Welsh households were estimated to be 25.0 MtCO2e in 2020, a decrease of 37% from 2001.

There is also a national milestone relating to global footprint which is for Wales to use only its fair share of the world’s resources by 2050. Our global footprint is the total environmental burden that society places on the planet. Recent estimates produced by JNCC and the Global Footprint Network suggest that the global footprint per person reduced by nearly a third between 2004 and 2018. However, this remains over twice the estimated biocapacity of Wales. If the entire world population lived like the citizens of Wales, humanity would require 2.08 Earths.

The numbers of asylum seekers receiving support has increased since 2022. There was an increase of 15% in 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023. Numbers remained stable between 2016 and 2020 and fell between 2020 and 2021.

Vaccination uptake in young children continues to be high but has decreased slightly since its highest levels in 2013-14, for both ‘6 in 1’ DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB1 for those reaching their first birthday, and MMR uptake of one dose by two years of age.

Global context, United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

On 1 January 2016, the world began implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the transformative plan of action based on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to address urgent global challenges over the next 15 years. The SDGs emphasise a universal agenda that requires all UN member states, both rich and poor alike, to take action to support sustainable development.

There are many factors which dictate whether Wales is becoming a more globally responsible nation.

The Well-being of Future Generations Act, with its Welsh specific well-being goals, provides a framework for Wales’s contribution to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. For the most part, the other six narrative reports, through their assessment of our progress towards the national well-being goals, demonstrate our overall contribution as a nation to the international sustainable development agenda. For example, we report elsewhere on national trends on issues such as poverty, inequalities and decent work. This narrative on a globally responsible Wales therefore focuses on areas that are most relevant to the global agenda in particular.

The 50 national indicators for Wales have also been mapped for indicative purposes against the 17 Sustainable Development Goals to help you navigate between progress here in Wales, and the relationship to each of the SDGs.

National Indicators: mapping to Well-being and UN Sustainable Development Goals (interactive tool)

Whilst some of the narrative is drawn from national indicators and official statistics, some of the data presented in this section is contextual and uses data or factual statements related to specific policies or programmes, where we have considered it relevant to the overall narrative. These data are not collected through official statistics sources, and although reported here for context, we cannot provide full assurance about data quality. However, where possible, more information about the data can be found in the Quality Report for National Wellbeing Indicators and the non-indicator quality report.

Climate change

Goal 13 of the UN SDGs is to “take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”.

People in Wales are concerned about climate change.

The National Survey results for 2022-23 show that the vast majority (97%) of people in Wales think the world’s climate is changing. In 2022-23, 74% of adults were fairly concerned or very concerned about climate change, similar to the results in 2021-22 (76%) and in 2020-21 (76%).

In 2022-23, 56% of people think that climate change is mainly or entirely due to human activity. 94% think human activity is involved to some extent in the world’s climate changing.

Greenhouse gas emissions

There is a national milestone for greenhouse gases which is for Wales to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

In 2022, it was estimated that emissions released into the atmosphere directly from within Wales (known as territorial emissions) totalled 35.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), a decrease of 0.1% since 2021. The small decrease in emissions between 2021 and 2022 was primarily driven by a combination of increased emissions in the fuel supply sector, driven largely by an increase in refinery combustion emissions, and increased activity at power stations due to increased activity following the COVID-19 pandemic. These increases are offset by a decrease in emissions in the industry sector associated with iron and steel production, and reduced emissions in the buildings and product use sector, where the combination of 2022 being the hottest year on record, and increased gas prices, has likely led to a behavioural change in residential energy use.

Figure 7.1: Estimated Welsh territorial emissions of greenhouse gases (Mt CO2e), 1990 to 2022 [Note 1]

Description of Figure 7.1: The line chart shows the volume of territorial greenhouse gas emissions (megatonnes) in Wales in between 1990 and 2022. Emissions in Wales have fallen by 36% since the base year (1990). There was no change in emissions between 2021 and 2022.

Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

[Note 1]: previously published figures have been revised and marked with (r)

There has been a fall of 36% since the base year (1990) emissions. The long-term emission reduction trend since the base year are mainly due to efficiencies in energy generation and business sector heating (of buildings and for processes), the use of natural gas to replace some coal and other fuels as well as abatement in some chemical industries, reductions in emissions from anaerobic waste management and variations in manufacturing output (for example in iron and steel, bulk chemical production).

The largest emission sector was the industry sector, which accounted for 29% of all greenhouse gas emissions in Wales. This sector is dominated by fuel combustion in the iron and steel production process, such as blast furnaces, coke production, flaring, and sinter production.

The electricity supply sector is the second largest sector making up 18% of Welsh emissions. This is followed by the agriculture sector (16%,) the domestic transport sector (15%), the buildings and product uses sector (13%), the fuel supply sector (7%), with other sectors each making smaller contributions of 5% or less.

These figures on territorial greenhouse gas emissions only take account of emissions within Wales. This does not include emissions associated with the production of goods and services outside of Wales even if these are imported into Wales. Equally, emissions associated with the production of goods and services in Wales are counted as Welsh emissions even if these are exported for consumption elsewhere.

Emissions of greenhouse gases attributed to the consumption of global goods and services in Wales

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with goods and services consumed by Welsh households (known as consumption emissions or carbon footprint) are estimated. These estimates measure the emissions directly produced by Welsh households (including heating and driving, for example), emissions that occur within the UK to produce goods and services consumed in Wales, and ‘imported’ emissions that occur in other countries to produce goods and services consumed in Wales.

Overall, consumption emissions have decreased since 2001. Between 2001 and 2020 emissions have decreased from 40.0 MtCO2e to 25.0 MtCO2e (down 37%). When comparing 2001 and 2019 to remove effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the decrease is approximately 21%. Emissions embedded within imported goods and services (consumed in Wales but produced overseas) were the largest source of emissions over this time period.

These estimates have a high degree of uncertainty because it is difficult to measure emissions embedded within imports and these data are scaled to a Welsh level using a survey with a limited sample size. Therefore, variations in annual data may not reflect actual changes to emissions and the longer term trend over time should be considered.

The territorial and consumption emissions can be considered alongside each other. These emission estimates measure different sources of emissions and use different methods, the territorial emissions use more robust data sources and methods so are more certain than consumption emissions. The consumption emissions indicator helps to identify whether decreases to emissions within Wales are being offset by emissions 'imported' from abroad. Unlike other UK nations, territorial emissions are higher in Wales than consumption emissions. This could be due to Wales having a higher level of heavy industry and non-renewable energy generation relative to the population than other UK nations.

Figure 7.2: Estimated Welsh consumption emissions footprint (Mt CO2e), 2001 to 2020

Description of Figure 7.2: The line chart shows the volume of estimated consumption emissions (megatonnes) in Wales show a general downward trend since 2001. Between 2001 and 2020, Wales’ estimated consumption emissions footprint has decreased by 37%, from 40 Mt CO2e to 25 Mt CO2e.

Source: Consumption Emissions Footprint, Wales, 2001 to 2020 (Mt CO2e), University of Leeds consumption based emissions estimate.

Global footprint

Our global footprint is the total environmental burden that society places on the planet. Globally, we are consuming more natural resources than the world is able to replace.

One way of measuring our global footprint and this ecological deficit is to calculate what is known as an Ecological Footprint, which represents the area of land needed to provide raw materials, energy and food as well as absorb pollution and waste created. It is measured in global hectares.

Our global footprint is influenced by the food people eat, the way we travel and the energy we use at home. It also accounts for the purchase of products and services, from insurance to televisions to items of clothing. It also includes impacts from construction activity and investment in infrastructure.

The national milestone for this indicator is that Wales will only use its fair share of the world’s resources by 2050. A global footprint for Wales has recently been calculated by JNCC using the Ecological Footprint methodology. This is part of a wider project to improve understanding of the global environmental footprint and impacts of commodities that are consumed within Wales, but that may be produced anywhere in the world.

An Ecological Footprint was produced using two slightly different methodologies – one making use of Wales-specific data (only available for 2019), and the other using different and slightly simpler input data (apportioning UK data to Wales) to enable the production of a time series. Due to its ability to monitor change over time, the latter is being used to report progress against the national indicator and milestone.

Using the Ecological Footprint methodology, Wales’s global footprint has generally decreased from around 17.0 million global hectares (gha) in 2004 to 12.3 million gha in 2018. The global footprint per person has reduced by nearly a third over this time period, and stood at 3.9 gha per person in 2018. However, this remains over twice the estimated biocapacity of Wales. In other words, if the entire world population lived like the citizens of Wales, humanity would require 2.08 Earths.

Figure 7.3: Global footprint, global hectares (gha) per person, 2004 to 2018

Description of Figure 7.3: A line chart showing the global footprint (gha) per person in Wales, at three/four yearly intervals between 2004 and 2018. The global footprint per person has gradually decreased over the period.

Source: Understanding the Global Environmental Footprint and Impacts of Welsh Consumption, JNCC

An alternative measure of Wales’ Ecological Footprint uses slightly higher quality input data, but does not allow for comparison over time. This footprint was around 10.7 million gha in 2019, equivalent to approximately 3.4 gha per person.

Active global citizenship

In 2021-22 the National Survey for Wales, for the first time, asked people about what activities they had done to help with international issues such as poverty, human rights, war, refugees or climate change. These questions were asked prior to the war in Ukraine.

11% of those surveyed have done three or more of the four following actions to help with global issues: donating or raising money, campaigning, volunteering, or changing what they buy.

31% of people say they have donated money in the preceding three months to help with global issues. The most common issues people donated money for were international poverty (21%) and to support refugees (15%). 36% of women say they gave money, compared with 26% of men.

17% of people say they have campaigned for international issues in last 12 months to help with global issues and 5% say they have volunteered. 11% of people campaigned for human rights issues and 10% against climate change, while 2% volunteered to stop poverty and 2% to help refugees.

54% say they have changed what they buy because of global issues. People aged under 75 are more likely to have changed what they buy (57%) than people aged 75 and over (34%). People aged 25 to 44 were the group most likely to have made changes to what they buy (63%).

Modern slavery

Referrals of potential victims of modern slavery in Wales continue to have increased in recent years.

The UN SDGs include a target on ‘Ending modern slavery and human trafficking’. Modern slavery is the term used within the UK and is defined within the Modern Slavery Act 2015. The Act categorises offences of Slavery, Servitude and Forced or Compulsory Labour and Human Trafficking.

According to the National Crime Agency (NCA), the recorded incidents of potential victims of slavery to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process continue to increase each year in Wales.

In 2023, there were 559 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery received by police forces in Wales. This is a 4% increase compared to 2022 (536 referrals). Some increases in recent years are probably due to improved reporting and changes in how the data are recorded.

Figure 7.4: NRM referrals sent to police forces in Wales for investigation, 2018 to 2023

Description of figure 7.4: A line chart showing the number of referrals to the National Referral Mechanism for police forces in Wales between 2018 and 2023. The number of referrals has increased over the time period.

Source: National Referral Mechanism statistics, Home Office

In 2023 116 of the referrals were for females (21%) and 441 were for males (79%), and 2 (0.4%) were recorded as ‘other’, or ‘not specified or unknown’.

There were 189 (34%) individuals referred for adult exploitation categories and 348 (62%) referred for exploitation as a minor. 22 (4%) were not specified or unknown.

The most common type of exploitation for adults was ‘labour and criminal’ and for minors this was ‘criminal’. However, for female minors the most common exploitation was ‘sexual’.

Forced marriage and female genital mutilation

Forced marriage or possible female genital mutilation is being identified in Wales.

Goal 5 of the UN SDGs include a target to ‘eliminate all harmful practices, such as child, early and forced marriage and female genital mutilation’.

According to the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the Forced Marriage Unit (FMU) gave advice or support in less than 5 cases related to a possible forced marriage and/or possible female genital mutilation in 2023 in Wales. This compared to 6 cases last year making up 2% of the UK total.

Due to low numbers relative to some other parts of the UK, the trend for Wales has been volatile between 2015 and 2023. Following the introduction of the first lockdown, referrals to the FMU decreased. This may be attributable to reasons derived from the pandemic, such as restrictions on weddings and travel. A procedural change regarding whether to log a new case as a referral or a general enquiry is also likely to have had a minor impact on the overall number of cases compared with previous years and so direct comparisons should be treated with caution.

Figure 7.5: Number of cases the Forced Marriage Unit gave advice or support to in Wales, 2015 to 2022 [Note 1] [Note 2]
Year	Cases
2015	25
2016	14
2017	17
2018	28
2019	37
2020	15
2021	8
2022	6
2023	[c]

Description of Figure 7.5: A table of the number of cases where the Forced Marriage Unit (FMU) gave advice or support in Wales in relation to a possible forced marriage and/or possible female genital mutilation (FGM) in Wales in 2023. Due to low numbers relative to some other parts of the UK, the trend for Wales has been volatile between 2015 to 2023.

Source: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Forced Marriage Unit statistics 2023

[Note 1] Owing to changes in recording practices the data from 2020 are not directly comparable with the data in previous years.

[Note 2] Some shorthand is used in this table, [c]= less than 5.

Global citizenship education

The UN SDG ‘Quality Education’ recognises the importance of obtaining a quality education and all learners acquiring the knowledge and skills needed to promote sustainable development, including sustainable lifestyles, human rights, gender equality and global citizenship.

In 2023/24, there were 21,493 entrants for the Global Citizenship Challenge at key stage 4, and 4,523 at advanced level who chose the global citizenship challenge component. There were 5,048 entries for the new advanced global community project. For key stage 4, provisional data shows 98.8% of entries achieved a level 1 pass or above, and at the advanced level, 98.9% achieved a level 3 pass or above. For the new advanced global community project, provisional data shows 72.1% achieved a C or above, and 97.1% achieved an E or above.

International students

Young people in Wales are learning about global issues but there’s been a decline in recent years in international students attending higher education institutions in Wales.

A large number of students from a range of countries attend higher education institutions in Wales.

In 2022/23, there were 28,710 enrolments from international students for higher education providers in Wales. This comprised of 19% of enrolments where the student’s domicile was known. Of these, 2,900 were from students of European Union domicile (2% of all enrolments where the student’s domicile was known), while 25,805 were from students of non-European Union domicile (17% of all enrolments where the student’s domicile was known). This represents a record high number of higher education enrolments in Wales from non-UK domiciles.

Figures previously provided excluded students at the Welsh national centre of the Open University and higher education enrolments at further education providers. However, excluding data for FE providers and the Open University provides a less comprehensive view of higher education in Wales, and omits a large number of students studying at HE level. Data that includes the Open University and higher education enrolments at further education providers in Wales is only available from 2016/17. Consequently, figures and proportions may differ to those previously reported.

Figure 7.6: Percentage of the student population at Welsh higher education institutions who are international students, 2016/17 to 2022/23 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Description of Figure 7.6: The line chart shows the percentage of the student population at Welsh higher education institutions who are international students, from 2016/17 to 2022/23. In 2022/23 19% of enrolments were from international students.

Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

[Note 1] Numbers based on enrolments for students who are in the standard higher education registration population, and are studying in Wales (including the Welsh national centre of the Open University and higher education enrolments at further education providers)

[Note 2] Percentage calculations are based on the students whose country of permanent address is known. This means that students whose country of permanent address is unknown are excluded from calculations.

Food poverty

Some adults in Wales are facing food poverty and are concerned about affording food.

The UN SDG ‘Zero Hunger’ aims to end hunger and achieve food security and improve nutrition.

The 2022-23 National Survey for Wales reported that 3% of households had received food from a food bank in the last 12 months with a further 3% saying they hadn’t but had wanted to.

The survey also reported 5% of adults said there was at least one day in the previous fortnight where they had gone without a substantial meal. This was similar to 2021-22 (4%).

Asylum seekers

The number of asylum seekers receiving support has remained steady in the past few years but has increased since the start of the decade.

Goal 16 of the UN SDGs is to ‘promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels’.

Complete figures for the numbers of asylum seekers and refugees who are resettled in Wales are not available. However, figures are published relating to the number of refugees resettled under the UK Resettlement Scheme (and formerly the Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme), and the number of those currently receiving asylum support.

As at the end of March 2024, a total of 1,488 refugees have been resettled in Wales under the Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme (2016 to 2022) and UK Resettlement Scheme (2021 onwards).

Section 95 provides support for asylum seekers who have an asylum claim or appeal outstanding and failed asylum seekers who had children in their household when their appeal rights were exhausted, and includes those in receipt of:

Dispersed accommodation: those in receipt of accommodation only, or both accommodation and subsistence.
Subsistence only: whereby the applicant receives cash to support themselves but who have found their own accommodation.

At the end of March 2024, more than 2,800 asylum seekers were receiving support in Wales. The numbers receiving support have continued to increase since 2022. There was an increase of 15% in 2024, since the same quarter in 2023. Numbers remained stable between 2016 and 2020 and fell between 2020 and 2021.

Figure 7.7: Number of asylum seekers in receipt of Section 95 support, year ending March 2004 to 2023

Description of Figure 7.7: The line chart shows the number of asylum seekers receiving support remained steady in the years 2016 to 2020, followed by decreases until 2022, with increases in 2023 and 2024.

Source: Home Office Immigration statistics, year ending March 2024

In 2022 the war in Ukraine caused many people to flee the conflict. As at the end of 16 July 2024, over 9,500 visas have been issued to people from Ukraine with a sponsor in Wales. The Welsh Government provided a “super sponsor” role to over 4,600 of these. Over 7,700 people with sponsors in Wales had arrived in the UK at the 16 July 2024.

Vaccination coverage

Vaccination uptake in young children continues to be high but has decreased slightly since its highest levels in 2013-14, for both ‘6 in 1’ DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB1 for those reaching their first birthday, and MMR uptake of one dose by two years of age.

The UN SDG Sustainable Development goal ‘Good Health and Well-being’ states the importance of providing access to affordable and essential medicines and vaccines. The World Health Organisation has a vision for a world without measles, rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS).

‘6 in 1’ DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB1 vaccine uptake (all three doses) in children reaching their first birthday decreased slightly to 94.2%, compared to 94.5% in the previous year.

MMR uptake of one dose by two years of age remained the same as last year, with uptake of 92.9%. This is suboptimal for preventing outbreaks of measles (target uptake is 95%).

The proportion of children who were up to date with their routine immunisations by four years of age was 84.3% this year. Nationally, the percentage of children up to date with their routine immunisations by four years of age ranged from 77.9% in the most deprived quintile of LSOAs to 89.6% in the least deprived quintile of LSOAs. The difference in uptake between the least deprived quintile and the most deprived quintile was 11.7 percentage points. This is a widening of the inequality gap compared to 2022-23 (11.2 percentage points). However, further work is needed to identify the root cause of these inequalities and identify interventions to reduce this gap.

Figure 7.8: Percentage uptake of childhood immunisations in Wales, 2008-09 to 2023-24 [Note 1] [Note 2] [Note 3]

Description of Figure 7.8: The line chart shows percentage uptake of MMR and the 6 in 1 vaccine from 2008-09 to 2023-24. The uptake for both the '6 in 1' and MMR have decreased since they reached their highest levels in 2013-14. Uptake in 2023-24 was 92.9% for MMR, and 94.2% for ‘6 in 1’.

Source: National immunisation uptake data, Public Health Wales

[Note 1] The ‘6 in 1’ vaccine, protects against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (Whooping Cough), polio, Hib and Hepatitis B infection. The majority of one year olds referred to in this report would have been eligible for the ‘6 in 1’ vaccine, replacing the ‘5 in 1’ vaccine due at four, eight and 12 months.

[Note 2] MMR protects against measles, mumps and rubella. Data shows uptake for the first dose at two years of age.

[Note 3] Chart axis does not start at zero.

Data sources

Emissions of greenhouse gases by year, National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (StatsWales)

Consumption Emissions in Wales, Wales Consumption Emissions Footprint

Global Footprint: Understanding the Global Environmental Footprint and Impacts of Welsh Consumption (JNCC)

Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK (HO)

Forced Marriage Unit statistics (Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)

Global Citizenship Education, analysis provided by WJEC (see corresponding data tables)

Percentage of the student population at Welsh higher education institutions who are international students:

Number of asylum seekers in receipt of section 95 support in Wales (HO)

Ukraine sponsorship scheme statistics (HO and Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC)):

Vaccination Coverage:

National immunisation uptake data (Public Health Wales)

National survey for Wales

Progress towards national milestones

National Milestones

The milestones are generational targets which describe the pace and scale of change needed in key areas under the 7 well-being goals. In December 2021, the Welsh Government published the first wave of Wales’s national milestones, with the second wave set in November 2022. There are 17 national milestones in total, covering 16 national indicators.

This chapter aims to assess progress of the national milestones. Change is assessed since 2015, as this was the year of the Well-being of Future Generations Act, although the milestones themselves were not set until later. Where data is not available for 2015, the nearest possible year has been used.

The assessment in this chapter helps us understand and communicate progress towards the goals and milestones, however it should not necessarily be used to evaluate the impact of the Well-being of Future Generations Act as many other factors will influence the direction of some indicators. It is also important to consider indicators and milestones in the context of longer-term trends prior to 2015, which are presented in the following chapters of this report.

We assign each measure as either improved, deteriorated, no change or not assessed. Where possible, we have used measures such as statistical significance to make this assessment. In our assessment, we have not considered whether the milestones are on course to be met, simply the direction of change.

As this is the first year we have made these assessments, feedback is welcome on the approach taken.

What progress has been made?

Some of the 17 milestones have multiple parts to them, so in total we made 21 assessments of progress. 10 of these were assessed as improved since 2015 (or the nearest possible year), suggesting that Wales is heading in the right direction towards the milestone. However, in some cases, even though the trend may be moving in the right direction, we will need to move faster to reach the target by 2050. 5 milestones showed a deterioration and 5 showed little or no change.

For one milestone (energy performance of homes) progress could not be assessed because there was only one year of data.

In most cases, the milestones continued to follow a longer-term trend that was established before 2015. Longer term trends, and more detailed analysis of the milestones are included within the relevant chapters throughout the Wellbeing of Wales report.

The following sections of this chapter provide the progress assessment for each milestone.

To increase the healthy life expectancy of adults and narrow the gap in healthy life expectancy between the least and the most deprived by at least 15% by 2050

Deteriorated: Female healthy life expectancy between 2015-17 and 2020-22 and the gap in healthy life expectancy between most and least deprived areas between 2015-17 and 2018-20.

No change: Male healthy life expectancy between 2015-17 and 2020-22 and the gap in healthy life expectancy between most and least deprived areas between 2015-17 and 2018-20.

Figure 1: Gap in healthy life expectancy between most and least deprived areas, females and males, 2015-17 to 2018-20 [Note 1]

Description of Figure 1: A line chart showing that healthy life expectancy at birth for males has remained stable at around 61.5 years but has fallen for females from 62.2 years in 2015-17 to 60.3 years in 2020-22. The gap in healthy life expectancy between most and least deprived areas appears to have improved slightly for males (from 15.2 to 13.3 years) but deteriorated slightly for females (from 14.7 to 16.9 years) between 2015-17 and 2018-20, although these are not statistically significantly different.

Source: Public Health Outcomes Framework for Wales reporting tool, Public Health Wales (PHW)

[Note 1] Y axis does not start at zero

To increase the percentage of adults with two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours to more than 97% by 2050

Deteriorated: between 2016-17 and 2019-20.

Figure 2: Percentage of adults with two or more healthy lifestyle behaviours, 2016-17 to 2022-23 [Note 1], [Note 2], [Note 3]

Description of figure 2: A line chart showing that the percentage of adults with two or more healthy behaviours has deteriorated from 92.9% in 2016-17 to 89.9% in 2019-20. The trend since 2020-21 has been stable at around 92.6% but is not comparable with previous years, due to a change in the method of reporting.

Source: National Survey for Wales, Welsh Government

[Note 1] Results from 2020-21 are not comparable with previous years due to changes in the survey

[Note 2] Results from 2020-21 are for quarter 4 only and not annual data

[Note 3] Y axis does not start at zero

To increase the percentage of children with two or more healthy behaviours to 94% by 2035 and more than 99% by 2050

Improved: between 2017/18 and 2021/22

Figure 3: Percentage of young people aged 11 to 16 with two or more healthy behaviours, 2017/18 (academic year) to 2021/22 [Note 1]

Description of figure 3: A line chart showing that the percentage of young people aged 11 to 16 with two or more healthy behaviours has improved from 87.7% in 2017/18 to 89.8% in 2021/22.

Source: School Health Research Network Student Health and Wellbeing Survey

[Note 1] Y axis does not start at zero

75% of working age adults in Wales will be qualified to level 3 or higher by 2050

Improved: between 2015 and 2023

Figure 4: Percentage of adults of working age (18 to 64) with a qualification at Level 3 or above, 2015 to 2023

Description of figure 4: A line chart showing that an estimated 67.4% of working age adults in Wales were qualified to level 3 or higher in 2023. This figure is likely to be higher than it would have been otherwise, following the changes to the questions on the APS to reflect the current qualifications framework in 2022. In 2015 an estimated 56.6% of working age adults were qualified to level 3 or higher according to the qualifications framework in place at that time.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Population Survey (APS), Office for National Statistics (ONS)

[Note 1] Estimates for 2022 onwards cannot be compared to previous years following changes to the questions on qualifications in the APS.

The percentage of working age adults with no qualifications will be 5% or below in every local authority in Wales by 2050

Improved: between 2015 and 2023

Figure 5: Proportion of working age adults with no qualification by local authority, 2023

Description of figure 5: A bar chart showing that there are currently 5 local authorities where the percentage of working age adults with no qualifications is below 5%: Vale of Glamorgan, Monmouthshire, Isle of Anglesey, Gwynedd and Powys. In 2015 there were none.

Source: Welsh Government Analysis of APS, ONS

Improve gross disposable household income (GDHI) per head in Wales by 2035 and commit to setting a stretching growth target for 2050

Improved: between 2015 and 2022

Figure 6: GDHI per head in Wales, £ and index (UK = 100), 2015 to 2022

Description of figure 6: Two line charts showing GDHI per head and GDHI index, relative to the UK. GDHI per head in Wales has increased in cash value over the period 2015 to 2022, from £15,600 in 2015 to £18,700 in 2022; an increase of 19.6%. This does not account for inflation over the period. However, GDHI per head relative to the UK (as shown by the index), which does account for inflation by looking at the relative change, has slightly decreased over the period 2015 to 2022 from 82.0% to 81.8%.

Source: Regional GDHI, Regional Accounts, ONS

Wales will use only its fair share of the world’s resources by 2050

Improved: between 2014 and 2018

Figure 7: Global Footprint (gha) per person, 2014 to 2018

Description of figure 7: A line chart showing that the global footprint per person has reduced by 11% between 2014 and 2018. The global footprint per person was 3.9 gha per person in 2018, compared to 4.4 gha per person in 2014.

Source: Understanding the Global Environmental Footprint and Impacts of Welsh Consumption, JNCC

An elimination of the pay gap for gender, disability and ethnicity by 2050

Improved: Gender pay gap between 2015 and 2023

No change: Disability pay gap between 2015 and 2023

Deteriorated: Ethnicity pay gap between 2015 and 2023

Figure 8: Gender pay difference in Wales by year (median hourly earnings full-time employees excluding overtime) (£), 2015 to 2023

Description of figure 8: A line chart showing that since 2015, the gender pay gap on a median hourly full-time basis (excluding overtime) has narrowed, from 7.4% to 5.6% in 2023.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE).

Figure 9: Ethnicity and disability pay differences in Wales by year (median hourly earnings, all employees) (£), year ending December 2015 to December 2023

Description of figure 9: A line chart showing that ethnicity and disability pay gaps have been volatile over the period since 2015. The ethnicity pay gap decreased from 12.0% in 2015 to 1.4% in 2019 but in the last 4 years has risen again, standing at 13.8% in 2023. The disability pay gap rose from 12.5% in 2015 to a high of 15.1% in 2019 but has decreased to 12.2% in 2023. It is not clear that the change in these ethnicity and disability pay gaps between 2015 and 2023 are statistically significant.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of the APS.

Reduce the poverty gap between people in Wales with certain key and protected characteristics (which mean they are most likely to be in poverty) and those without those characteristics by 2035. Commit to setting a stretching target for 2050

The characteristics included in the scope of this milestone have not yet been agreed. In the interim, this report concentrates on differences between broad age groups.

No change: between broad age groups between the 3 year period to March 2015 to the 3 year period to March 2023

Figure 10: Percentage of each age group in Wales living in relative income poverty (after housing costs), three-financial-year averages

Description of figure 10: A line chart showing that children are consistently the age group most likely to be in relative income poverty in Wales. 29% of children were in relative income poverty in the three-year period to March 2023, the same as in the three-year period to March 2015. The gap between the percentage of children in poverty and the percentage of the whole population in poverty in the three-year period to March 2023 was 7.2 percentage points, compared to 6.5 in the period to March 2015 though these are not statistically significant changes.

Source: Relative Income Poverty: April 2022 to March 2023

Eradicate the gap between the employment rate in Wales and the UK by 2050, with a focus on fair work and raising labour market participation of under-represented groups

Improved: between year ending March 2015 and year ending March 2024

Figure 11: Employment rate for people aged 16 to 64, UK and Wales, year ending March 2015 to March 2024

Description of figure 11: A line chart showing that the employment rate gap between Wales and the UK has fluctuated since the year ending March 2015, however the gap has narrowed overall.

The employment rate gap between Wales and the UK has narrowed between the years ending March 2015 and March 2024, with the gap decreasing from 3.3 to 1.9 percentage points over this period.

Source: Welsh Government analysis of the APS.

At least 90% of 16 to 24 year olds will be in education, employment, or training by 2050

Improved: between 2015 and 2022

Figure 12: Participation of young people in education and the labour market by age group, Wales, 2015 to 2022

Description of figure 12: A line chart showing that the proportion of 16 to 24 year olds in employment, education or training has fluctuated between 2015 and 2022, however it has improved overall.

Provisional estimates show that 85.8% of 16 to 24 year olds were in education, employment or training in 2022, up from 83.5% in 2015. Since 2015 the proportion of young people aged 19 to 24 years in education, employment of training has risen (from 81.0% to 85.4%) whilst the proportion of those aged 16 to 18 years has fallen (from 89.4% to 86.7%).

Source: Welsh Government, Open University and HEFCW

[Note 1]: figures for 2022 are provisional.

Increase the percentage of people who volunteer by 10% by 2050, demonstrating Wales’s status as a volunteering nation

Improved: between year ending March 2017 and year ending March 2023

Figure 13: Percentage of people volunteering, 2016-17 to 2022-23

Description of figure 13: A line chart showing that the percentage of people who say they have volunteered increased slightly overall, from 28% in 2016-17 to 30% in 2022-23, despite a slight dip in 2019-20. The national milestone has been met.

Source: National Survey for Wales, Welsh Government.

To improve adult and children’s mean mental wellbeing and eliminate the gap in adult and children’s mean mental wellbeing between the most deprived and least deprived areas in Wales by 2050

No change: for adults between 2016-17 and 2018-19 or between 2021-22 and 2022-23.

Deteriorated: for children between 2017/18 and 2021/22

Figure 14: Average Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale score for adults, 2016-17 to 2022-23 [Note 1], [Note 2]

Description of figure 14: A line chart showing that the average Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWEBS) score for adults did not show any significant change between 2016-17 and 2019-20 at around 51.2 or since 2020-21 at around 48.6. The gap in the average WEMWEBS score between those from the most and least deprived areas appears to have widened since 2020-21 from 1.7 to 4.0 in 2022-23. However, understanding a longer-term trend for this milestone is not possible due to changes in the data collection.

Source: National Survey for Wales, Welsh Government

[Note 1] Results from 2020-21 are not comparable with previous years due to changes in the survey

[Note 2] Y axis does not start at zero

Figure 15 Average Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale score for young people aged 11 to 16, 2017/18 (academic year) to 2021/22 [Note 1]

Description of figure 15: A line chart showing that the average Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (SWEMWEBS) score for young people aged 11 to 16 has declined from 23.9 in 2017/18 to 23.0 in 2021/22. The gap in the average SWEMWEBS score between those from low and high family affluence has narrowed from 3 in 2017/18 to 2 in 2021/22, but only due to a deterioration in the score of those from high family affluence.

Source: School Health Research Network Student Health and Wellbeing Survey

[Note 1] Y axis does not start at zero

All homes in Wales will have adequate and cost-effective energy performance by 2050

Change not assessed.

According to the Welsh Housing Conditions Survey 2017-18, 47% of residential dwellings were considered to have adequate energy performance (a SAP rating of 65 or above). More recent data is not available.

A million Welsh speakers by 2050

Deteriorated: between 2011 and 2021

Figure 16: Number of people aged three years or older able to speak Welsh, 2011 to 2021

Description of figure 16: A column chart showing that the number of Welsh speakers fell from 562,000 in 2011 to 538,000 in 2021. Over the long term, the number of Welsh speakers has been falling, down from almost one million people in 1911 to 538,000 in the most recent census.

Source: Census of Population

Wales will achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

Improved: between 2015 and 2021

Figure 17: Emissions of greenhouse gases, 2015 to 2021

Description of figure 17: A line chart showing that in 2021, emissions released into the atmosphere directly from within Wales, known as territorial emissions, totalled 36.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, this was 46.2 in 2015. There has been a decrease of 27% between 2015 and 2021.

Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

To reverse the decline in biodiversity with an improvement in the status of species and ecosystems by 2030 and their clear recovery by 2050

No change: between 2011 and 2016

Source: Status of Biological Diversity in Wales (ERAMMP)

Over a long-term period (1970 to 2016), the index of distribution change for section 7 priority species in Wales had declined to 87% of its baseline value in 1970. Over the short-term period (2011 to 2016), the value of the indicator increased from 85 to 87 and was assessed as stable.

Background information

What is this report?

This report provides an update on progress being made in Wales towards the achievement of the 7 wellbeing goals. It is a statutory report required under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. It is a report concerning the collective progress of Wales as a nation. It is not a report on the performance of an individual organisation. The first report was published in September 2017.

The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015

The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act (UK legislation) is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of Wales. It is intended to make the public bodies listed in the Act think more about the long-term, work better with people and communities and each other, look to prevent problems and take a more joined-up approach. This in turn is intended to create a Wales that we all want to live in, now and in the future.

The Act also puts in place 7 wellbeing goals for a prosperous, healthier, resilient, more equal and globally responsible Wales, with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language.

For more background information on the Act please see the Essentials guide.

What are the national indicators for Wales?

The Act required Welsh Ministers to set national indicators to assess progress towards achieving the wellbeing goals. From September 2015 to January 2016 Welsh Government undertook a widespread public consultation to identify what small set of indicators should be developed to best measure progress against the wellbeing goals. These national indicators were published in March 2016 and laid before the National Assembly for Wales.

In 2021, Welsh Government asked for views on possible new indicators based on the learning from COVID-19. Based on these responses and wider input, some indicators have been updated and 4 new national indicators have been included and the indicator set was updated in December 2021.

The national indicators are designed to represent the outcomes for Wales, and its people that will help demonstrate progress towards the 7 wellbeing goals. They are not intended to be performance indicators for an individual organisation.

Full description of the national indicators including their technical definition and information about their data sources and frequency can be found in the technical document.

How does this relate to the UN Sustainable Development Goals?

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a transformative plan of action based on 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals to address urgent global challenges over the next 15 years. The United Nations’ 17 global goals mean that every country on the planet will have to take action to end poverty, promote prosperity and wellbeing for all, protect the environment, and address climate change. Those goals are meant to be far-reaching, people-centred, universal, and transformative. UN member states have committed to working tirelessly towards their implementation by 2030, and Wales will play its part.

Many national indicators will help tell a story of progress in Wales against more than one of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We have mapped the indicators against the goals.

What are the national milestones?

As well as setting national indicators, the Act also requires Welsh Ministers to set national milestones to assist in measuring whether progress is being made at a national level towards the achievement of the wellbeing goals. Following development and consultation throughout 2021, the first wave of national milestones were laid before the Senedd in December 2021 and the second wave were laid in November 2022.

Who produced this report?

The report has been produced by Welsh Government statisticians under the responsibility of the Welsh Government’s Chief Statistician. It has been produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics and is therefore produced independently of political influence.

Timeliness

The report has been published in September to ensure it is as close as possible to the end of the preceding financial year, but after the publication of the National Survey for Wales which is the source for 13 of the national indicators.

The data for the national indicators will be kept up to date as new datasets are published for those indicators.

Coverage

This report covers a wide range of subjects, and therefore in this report it is only possible to consider high level measures of progress. More in depth analysis of many of these topics are available through the range of statistical releases published by Welsh Government, the ONS or other statistical producers.

The coverage of the report is Wales. For some indicators, reference is made to the position relative to the UK. The narrative against the goals and for each indicator is based on national progress against the goals, and it does not seek to provide a report on progress at different geographical levels. However, data for many indicators are available on StatsWales, or on request, at lower levels of geographical detail.

Accessibility

This report has been produced as an online report to improve the accessibility, responsiveness, and user experience.

The majority of the data underlying the report, including much more detailed breakdowns, are available on StatsWales and through the StatsWales open data services.

Are all the data official statistics?

The Wellbeing of Wales report is an accredited official statistic. This means it has been independently assessed as meeting the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value.

Most of the indicators (35) are based on sources that have been published as official statistics. That is, they have been published by government statisticians, or by other public bodies, under the Code of Practice for Statistics.

29 of these indicators are based on sources that have been published as accredited official statistics. That is the UK Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as accredited official statistics, signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. This means that they meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and public value.

13 indicators are based on other sources such as administrative data held by government departments. 2 indicators currently have no data.

Although not all of the data sources used are from official statistics, the report itself has been developed and published in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

What else should I know about the data?

The quality report for national indicators reports alongside this release provides links to quality information about each of the data sources used to measure the national indicators, or provides that information where it does not exist elsewhere.

Whilst most of the narrative in the Wellbeing of Wales report is drawn from national indicators, some of the contextual data is from other official statistics or other statistics and evidence where we have considered it relevant to the overall narrative. The data not collected through official statistics sources are used in the Wellbeing of Wales report for context, but we cannot always provide assurance about data quality. As the data in the progress report have been sourced from a variety of datasets, the level of quality information available will differ in each case. We have provided links to the original sources and their quality information where they exist.

Throughout the report, references to calendar, financial and academic years are used. When referencing academic years, '/' are used ( e.g. 2021/22), and for financial years '-' are used ( e.g. 2021-22).

Who are the users of this report?

It is anticipated this report will be used by Welsh Government; the Senedd (including Members of the Senedd and its committees); the media; and the general public to help understand (i) the Wellbeing of Wales (ii) progress being made against the 7 wellbeing goals and (iii) where Wales is making progress against the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

The national indicators and milestones can help public bodies who are subject to the future generations law understand further the nature of the change expected in achieving the wellbeing goals. The national indicators should be considered as useful evidence to assist public bodies in understanding the main areas where progress should be made in relation to the wellbeing goals.

The national indicators will also have a specific role as they must be referred to by public services boards in Wales when they are analysing the state of economic, social, environmental, and cultural wellbeing in their areas. The report should also be used by public bodies to develop and review wellbeing assessments and to set and review wellbeing objectives required under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act.

The annual Wellbeing of Wales report must also be taken into account by the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales when they prepare and publish their ‘Future Generations Report’.

UK context

For the UK as a whole, the Office for National Statistics has a National Wellbeing Programme. The well-being dashboard (Office for National Statistics) provides a visual overview of 59 headline national wellbeing indicators and can be explored by the 10 areas of life (domains) or by the direction of change.

In Scotland, the National Performance Framework (NPF) sets out a vision for national wellbeing and measures achievement in relation to this. A revised NPF was launched in June 2018 following an open review process and is underpinned by statute (the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015).

The revised NPF maps its 11 National Outcomes to the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and forms an important part of Scotland’s localisation of the SDG agenda. Progress towards the vision set out in the NPF is reported on in an open and transparent way on the National Performance Framework website through 81 national indicators covering a broad range of social, economic and environmental measures. In additional to showing performance at the national level the data can be explored by a range of demographic and geographic subgroups to see whether outcomes are being realised for different parts of Scottish society.

In Northern Ireland, the principal mechanism for assessing societal wellbeing is the wellbeing framework of 12 outcomes that was developed by the previous Executive, consulted on and refined during 2016-2017. This framework, which contains 49 supporting population indicators, overarches the Northern Ireland Civil Service Outcomes Delivery Plan.

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency continues to participate in the ONS-led Measuring National Well-being programme and publish a wellbeing analysis (Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency) based on the ONS wellbeing measures, where Northern Ireland data availability allows.

Contents

Foreword

Foreword by the Chief Statistician

What are the findings this year?

A new way of communicating progress

Main points

Main points

A prosperous Wales

The goal for a prosperous Wales

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

Economic performance

Figure 1.1: Welsh gross value added per hour worked, relative to the UK (UK = 100), 1998 to 2022

Innovation in businesses

Figure 1.2: Innovation-active businesses in Wales and the UK, 2008-10 to 2020-22

Household income

Figure 1.3: Gross disposable household income per head, Wales and UK, 1999 to 2022

Labour market

Figure 1.4: Employment rate for people aged 16 to 64, year ending March 2005 to March 2024

Figure 1.5: Economic inactivity rate (excluding students) for people aged 16 to 64, year ending March 2005 to March 2024

Participation in education and the labour market

Figure 1.6: Percentage of young people in Wales in education, employment or training, 2004 to 2022

Fair work and earnings

Figure 1.7: Percentage of people in employment, who are on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts, and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn at least the real living wage, 2012 to 2023

Figure 1.8: Percentage difference in median hourly full-time earnings between men and women, 1999 to 2023 [Note 1]

Poverty and deprivation

Relative income poverty

Figure 1.9: Percentage of each age group in Wales living in relative income poverty (after housing costs), three-financial-year averages [Note 1]

Material deprivation

Figure 1.10: Percentage of people in material deprivation (in Wales, financial years 2016-17 to 2022-23 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Income spent on housing costs

Qualifications

Figure 1.11: Highest level of qualification held by adults of working age, 2008 to 2023 [Note 1]

Figure 1.12: Proportion of working age population with no qualification by local authority, 2023

Attainment in schools

Figure 1.13: Gap between percentages of pupils eligible for FSM and pupils not eligible for FSM achieving A*-A, A*-C and A*-G at GSCE, 2015/16 to 2022/23 [Note 1]

Greenhouse gas emissions from industry and the energy supply sectors

Figure 1.14: Greenhouse gas emissions from industry and the energy supply sectors, 1990 to 2022 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Mode of travel

Figure 1.15: Usual mode of travel to work by Welsh residents, 2022 [Note 1] [Note 2]

Further reading

Data sources

Economic performance

Household income

Labour market

Participation in education and the labour market

Fair work and earnings

Poverty

Qualifications

Education

Businesses

Travel

A resilient Wales

The goal for a resilient Wales

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

Biodiversity and habitats

Water and flood risk

Figure 2.1: Bathing water quality, percentage of designated sites, 2023

Air quality

Figure 2.2: Air quality indicators, 2007 to 2022

Waste and recycling

Figure 2.3: Percentage of local authority municipal waste reused/recycled/composted, 2012-13 to 2022-23

Renewable energy generation

Figure 2.4: Renewable energy generation capacity, 2012 to 2022

Further reading

Data sources

Global footprint

Biodiversity and habitat

Water

Air quality

Recycling and resource use

Energy

A healthier Wales

The goal for a healthier Wales

What have we learnt from the data in the last year?

What is the longer term progress towards the goal?

Life expectancy

Figure 3.1: Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, by sex, 2001-03 to 2020-22 [Note 1]

Causes of deaths

**Figure 1.13: Gap between percentages of pupils eligible for FSM and pupils not eligible for FSM achieving A-A, A-C and A*-G at GSCE, 2015/16 to 2022/23 [Note 1]**